arXiv subjects

Steffen Bauer

Publications and source records attributed to Steffen Bauer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Generalised Gillespie Algorithms for Simulations in a Rule-Based Epidemiological Model Framework

Rule-based models have been successfully used to represent different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including age, testing, hospitalisation, lockdowns, immunity, infectivity, behaviour, mobility and vaccination of individuals. These rule-based approaches are motivated by chemical reaction rules which are traditionally solved numerically with the standard Gillespie algorithm proposed in the context of molecular dynamics. When applying reaction system type of approaches to epidemiology, generalisations of the Gillespie algorithm are required due to the time-dependency of the problems. In this article, we present different generalisations of the standard Gillespie algorithm which address discrete subtypes (e.g., incorporating the age structure of the population), time-discrete updates (e.g., incorporating daily imposed change of rates for lockdowns) and deterministic delays (e.g., given waiting time until a specific change in types such as release from isolation occurs). These algorithms are complemented by relevant examples in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and numerical results.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

A Rule-Based Epidemiological Modelling Framework

Motivated by chemical reaction rules, we introduce a rule-based epidemiological framework for the systematic mathematical modelling of future pandemics. Here we stress that we do not have a specific model in mind, but a whole collection of models which can be transformed into each other, or represent different aspects of a pandemic, and these aspects can change during the course of the emergency, as happened during the Covid-19 pandemic. As conditions for outbreaks in the modern world change on different time-scales, some rapidly, epidemiology has few 'laws', besides perhaps the fundamental infection process described by Kermack-McKendrick. Each single of our variety of models, called framework, is based on a mathematical formulation that we call a rule-based system. They have several advantages, for example that they can be both interpreted stochastically and deterministically, without changing the model structure. Rule-based systems should be easier to communicate to non-specialists, when compared to differential equations. Due to their combinatorial nature, the rule-based model framework we propose is ideal for systematic mathematical modelling, systematic links to statistics, data analysis in general and also machine learning leading to artificial intelligence.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2019

Playing a Strategy Game with Knowledge-Based Reinforcement Learning

This paper presents Knowledge-Based Reinforcement Learning (KB-RL) as a method that combines a knowledge-based approach and a reinforcement learning (RL) technique into one method for intelligent problem solving. The proposed approach focuses on multi-expert knowledge acquisition, with the reinforcement learning being applied as a conflict resolution strategy aimed at integrating the knowledge of multiple exerts into one knowledge base. The article describes the KB-RL approach in detail and applies the reported method to one of the most challenging problems of current Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, namely playing a strategy game. The results show that the KB-RL system is able to play and complete the full FreeCiv game, and to win against the computer players in various game settings. Moreover, with more games played, the system improves the gameplay by shortening the number of rounds that it takes to win the game. Overall, the reported experiment supports the idea that, based on human knowledge and empowered by reinforcement learning, the KB-RL system can deliver a strong solution to the complex, multi-strategic problems, and, mainly, to improve the solution with increased experience.

cs.AI↗