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Steffen Mæland

Publications and source records attributed to Steffen Mæland.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Progressive Memory Transformer: Memory-Aware Attention for Time-Series

Time-series carry structure simultaneously at multiple scales (fine-grained variation, mid-range motifs, and global properties) and downstream tasks operate at correspondingly different scales. Most existing self-supervised learning approaches supervise representations globally via instance-level contrastive losses and limited temporal neighborhood supervision, but do not explicitly exploit the structural hierarchy. We propose a learning framework that explicitly enforces a structural hierarchy across three scales independently: a local objective for token continuity, a mid-range objective for window-level motifs, and a global objective for sequence-level agreement. Realizing this framework requires the backbone to expose a representation at each scale; we introduce \textbf{Progressive Memory Transformer} (PMT), which augments a transformer with writable, window-aligned memory that exposes the mid-range scale alongside the token and sequence-level representations conventional transformers already provide. Across seven UCR/UEA/UCI classification benchmarks, a cue-retention probe, and forecasting benchmarks, PMT learns representations that probe well at the global, mid-range, and local scales---strong low-label classification (1--5\% labels), competitive forecasting performance across multiple horizons, and quantitative and qualitative evidence that memory states capture mid-range motifs.

cs.LG↗

Stochastic modeling of stratospheric temperature

This study suggests a stochastic model for time series of daily-zonal (circumpolar) mean stratospheric temperature at a given pressure level. It can be seen as an extension of previous studies which have developed stochastic models for surface temperatures. The proposed model is a sum of a deterministic seasonality function and a Lévy-driven multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which is a mean-reverting stochastic process. More specifically, the deseasonalized temperature model is an order 4 continuous time autoregressive model, meaning that the stratospheric temperature is modeled to be directly dependent on the temperature over four preceding days, while the model's longer-range memory stems from its recursive nature. This study is based on temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis model product. The residuals of the autoregressive model are well-represented by normal inverse Gaussian distributed random variables scaled with a time-dependent volatility function. A monthly variability in speed of mean reversion of stratospheric temperature is found, hence suggesting a generalization of the 4th order continuous time autoregressive model. A stochastic stratospheric temperature model, as proposed in this paper, can be used in geophysical analyses to improve the understanding of stratospheric dynamics. In particular, such characterizations of stratospheric temperature may be a step towards greater insight in modeling and prediction of large-scale middle atmospheric events, such as for example sudden stratospheric warmings. Through stratosphere-troposphere coupling, the stratosphere is hence a source of extended tropospheric predictability at weekly to monthly timescales, which is of great importance in several societal and industry sectors.

physics.geo-ph↗