arXiv subjects

Stelios Zarifis

Publications and source records attributed to Stelios Zarifis.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Diffusion-Based Scenario Tree Generation for Multivariate Time Series Prediction and Multistage Stochastic Optimization

Stochastic forecasting is critical for efficient decision-making in uncertain systems, such as energy markets and finance, where estimating the full distribution of future scenarios is essential. We propose Diffusion Scenario Tree (DST), a general framework for constructing scenario trees using diffusion-based probabilistic forecasting models to provide a structured model of system evolution for control tasks. DST recursively samples future trajectories and organizes them into a tree via clustering, ensuring non-anticipativity (decisions depending only on observed history) at each stage, offering a superior representation of uncertainty compared to using predictive models solely for forecasting system evolution. We integrate DST into Model Predictive Control (MPC) and evaluate it on energy arbitrage in New York State's day-ahead electricity market. Experimental results show that our approach significantly outperforms the same optimization algorithms that use scenario trees generated by more conventional models. Furthermore, using DST for stochastic optimization yields more efficient decision policies by better handling uncertainty than deterministic and stochastic MPC variants using the same diffusion-based forecaster, and simple Model-Free Reinforcement Learning (RL) baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Baby Sophia: A Developmental Approach to Self-Exploration through Self-Touch and Hand Regard

Inspired by infant development, we propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework for autonomous self-exploration in a robotic agent, Baby Sophia, using the BabyBench simulation environment. The agent learns self-touch and hand regard behaviors through intrinsic rewards that mimic an infant's curiosity-driven exploration of its own body. For self-touch, high-dimensional tactile inputs are transformed into compact, meaningful representations, enabling efficient learning. The agent then discovers new tactile contacts through intrinsic rewards and curriculum learning that encourage broad body coverage, balance, and generalization. For hand regard, visual features of the hands, such as skin-color and shape, are learned through motor babbling. Then, intrinsic rewards encourage the agent to perform novel hand motions, and follow its hands with its gaze. A curriculum learning setup from single-hand to dual-hand training allows the agent to reach complex visual-motor coordination. The results of this work demonstrate that purely curiosity-based signals, with no external supervision, can drive coordinated multimodal learning, imitating an infant's progression from random motor babbling to purposeful behaviors.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Diffusion-Based Forecasting for Uncertainty-Aware Model Predictive Control

We propose Diffusion-Informed Model Predictive Control (D-I MPC), a generic framework for uncertainty-aware prediction and decision-making in partially observable stochastic systems by integrating diffusion-based time series forecasting models in Model Predictive Control algorithms. In our approach, a diffusion-based time series forecasting model is used to probabilistically estimate the evolution of the system's stochastic components. These forecasts are then incorporated into MPC algorithms to estimate future trajectories and optimize action selection under the uncertainty of the future. We evaluate the framework on the task of energy arbitrage, where a Battery Energy Storage System participates in the day-ahead electricity market of the New York state. Experimental results indicate that our model-based approach with a diffusion-based forecaster significantly outperforms both implementations with classical forecasting methods and model-free reinforcement learning baselines.

cs.LG↗