arXiv subjects

Stella C. Dong

Publications and source records attributed to Stella C. Dong.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Hybrid Framework for Reinsurance Optimization: Integrating Generative Models and Reinforcement Learning

Reinsurance optimization is a cornerstone of solvency and capital management, yet traditional approaches often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions and static program designs. We propose a hybrid framework that combines Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to learn joint distributions of multi-line and multi-year claims data with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning to adapt treaty parameters dynamically. The framework explicitly targets expected surplus under capital and ruin-probability constraints, bridging statistical modeling with sequential decision-making. Using simulated and stress-test scenarios, including pandemic-type and catastrophe-type shocks, we show that the hybrid method produces more resilient outcomes than classical proportional and stop-loss benchmarks, delivering higher surpluses and lower tail risk. Our findings highlight the usefulness of generative models for capturing cross-line dependencies and demonstrate the feasibility of RL-based dynamic structuring in practical reinsurance settings. Contributions include (i) clarifying optimization goals in reinsurance RL, (ii) defending generative modeling relative to parametric fits, and (iii) benchmarking against established methods. This work illustrates how hybrid AI techniques can address modern challenges of portfolio diversification, catastrophe risk, and adaptive capital allocation.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Insurance Reserving with CVaR-Constrained Reinforcement Learning under Macroeconomic Regimes

We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) framework for insurance loss reserving that formulates reserve setting as a finite-horizon sequential decision problem under claim development uncertainty, macroeconomic stress, and solvency governance. The reserving process is modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in which reserve adjustments influence future reserve adequacy, capital efficiency, and solvency outcomes. A Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent is trained using a risk-sensitive reward that penalizes reserve shortfall, capital inefficiency, and breaches of a volatility-adjusted solvency floor, with tail risk explicitly controlled through Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). To reflect regulatory stress-testing practice, the agent is trained under a regime-aware curriculum and evaluated using both regime-stratified simulations and fixed-shock stress scenarios. Empirical results for Workers Compensation and Other Liability illustrate how the proposed RL-CVaR policy improves tail-risk control and reduces solvency violations relative to classical actuarial reserving methods, while maintaining comparable capital efficiency. We further discuss calibration and governance considerations required to align model parameters with firm-specific risk appetite and supervisory expectations under Solvency II and Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) frameworks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Reinsurance Treaty Bidding via Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

This paper develops a novel multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework for reinsurance treaty bidding, addressing long-standing inefficiencies in traditional broker-mediated placement processes. We pose the core research question: Can autonomous, learning-based bidding systems improve risk transfer efficiency and outperform conventional pricing approaches in reinsurance markets? In our model, each reinsurer is represented by an adaptive agent that iteratively refines its bidding strategy within a competitive, partially observable environment. The simulation explicitly incorporates institutional frictions including broker intermediation, incumbent advantages, last-look privileges, and asymmetric access to underwriting information. Empirical analysis demonstrates that MARL agents achieve up to 15% higher underwriting profit, 20% lower tail risk (CVaR), and over 25% improvement in Sharpe ratios relative to actuarial and heuristic baselines. Sensitivity tests confirm robustness across hyperparameter settings, and stress testing reveals strong resilience under simulated catastrophe shocks and capital constraints. These findings suggest that MARL offers a viable path toward more transparent, adaptive, and risk-sensitive reinsurance markets. The proposed framework contributes to emerging literature at the intersection of algorithmic market design, strategic bidding, and AI-enabled financial decision-making.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Norm-Governed Multi-Agent Decision-Making in Simulator-Coupled Environments:The Reinsurance Constrained Multi-Agent Simulation Process (R-CMASP)

Reinsurance decision-making exhibits the core structural properties that motivate multi-agent models: distributed and asymmetric information, partial observability, heterogeneous epistemic responsibilities, simulator-driven environment dynamics, and binding prudential and regulatory constraints. Deterministic workflow automation cannot meet these requirements, as it lacks the epistemic flexibility, cooperative coordination mechanisms, and norm-sensitive behaviour required for institutional risk-transfer. We propose the Reinsurance Constrained Multi-Agent Simulation Process (R-CMASP), a formal model that extends stochastic games and Dec-POMDPs by adding three missing elements: (i) simulator-coupled transition dynamics grounded in catastrophe, capital, and portfolio engines; (ii) role-specialized agents with structured observability, belief updates, and typed communication; and (iii) a normative feasibility layer encoding solvency, regulatory, and organizational rules as admissibility constraints on joint actions. Using LLM-based agents with tool access and typed message protocols, we show in a domain-calibrated synthetic environment that governed multi-agent coordination yields more stable, coherent, and norm-adherent behaviour than deterministic automation or monolithic LLM baselines--reducing pricing variance, improving capital efficiency, and increasing clause-interpretation accuracy. Embedding prudential norms as admissibility constraints and structuring communication into typed acts measurably enhances equilibrium stability. Overall, the results suggest that regulated, simulator-driven decision environments are most naturally modelled as norm-governed, simulator-coupled multi-agent systems.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Prudential Reliability of Large Language Models in Reinsurance: Governance, Assurance, and Capital Efficiency

This paper develops a prudential framework for assessing the reliability of large language models (LLMs) in reinsurance. A five-pillar architecture--governance, data lineage, assurance, resilience, and regulatory alignment--translates supervisory expectations from Solvency II, SR 11-7, and guidance from EIOPA (2025), NAIC (2023), and IAIS (2024) into measurable lifecycle controls. The framework is implemented through the Reinsurance AI Reliability and Assurance Benchmark (RAIRAB), which evaluates whether governance-embedded LLMs meet prudential standards for grounding, transparency, and accountability. Across six task families, retrieval-grounded configurations achieved higher grounding accuracy (0.90), reduced hallucination and interpretive drift by roughly 40%, and nearly doubled transparency. These mechanisms lower informational frictions in risk transfer and capital allocation, showing that existing prudential doctrines already accommodate reliable AI when governance is explicit, data are traceable, and assurance is verifiable.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

ClauseLens: Clause-Grounded, CVaR-Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Trustworthy Reinsurance Pricing

Reinsurance treaty pricing must satisfy stringent regulatory standards, yet current quoting practices remain opaque and difficult to audit. We introduce ClauseLens, a clause-grounded reinforcement learning framework that produces transparent, regulation-compliant, and risk-aware treaty quotes. ClauseLens models the quoting task as a Risk-Aware Constrained Markov Decision Process (RA-CMDP). Statutory and policy clauses are retrieved from legal and underwriting corpora, embedded into the agent's observations, and used both to constrain feasible actions and to generate clause-grounded natural language justifications. Evaluated in a multi-agent treaty simulator calibrated to industry data, ClauseLens reduces solvency violations by 51%, improves tail-risk performance by 27.9% (CVaR_0.10), and achieves 88.2% accuracy in clause-grounded explanations with retrieval precision of 87.4% and recall of 91.1%. These findings demonstrate that embedding legal context into both decision and explanation pathways yields interpretable, auditable, and regulation-aligned quoting behavior consistent with Solvency II, NAIC RBC, and the EU AI Act.

cs.LG↗