arXiv subjects

Stella Koch Ocker

Publications and source records attributed to Stella Koch Ocker.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The DSA/Chronoscope fast radio burst survey: forecasts and science overview

Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are bright extragalactic transients with several mysteries surrounding their origins. Large FRB samples enable accurate measurements of the cosmic matter distribution, in particular on scales $\lesssim 10$ Mpc. These measurements will impact cosmological inference and our understanding of astrophysical feedback, from the circumgalactic medium to cluster scales. Here we forecast the expected yields, redshifts, and host galaxies of FRBs as observed by the Deep Synoptic Array (DSA), and describe the key science cases enabled by the large FRB sample. The DSA will be an interferometer consisting of 1650$\times$6.15 m antennas, operating between 0.7--2 GHz, to be located in Nevada, USA. The Chronoscope backend on the DSA, hereafter DSA/Chronoscope, is designed to search for FRBs across the field of view in real time, enabling the storage of full-polarization voltage data. Extrapolating from existing FRB surveys, we expect roughly $10^4$ FRB detections per year in each of three search sub-bands. Combining across sub-bands, the survey could produce $\sim$ 10$^5$ FRBs over the nominal 5-year DSA survey, assuming Euclidean source counts and a baseline compute backend that can search $6\times10^6$ beams at 1 ms sampling. The well-characterized DSA synthesized beam and deep simultaneous reference images will enable localization precisions of $\lesssim$ 250 milliarcseconds. Key science cases include the use of FRB propagation effects in probing cosmic baryons, and studies of the FRB phenomenon using FRB host galaxies and their local environment, as well as multiwavelength counterparts.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Anisotropy: Empirical Sensitivity Curves, Scaling Relations, and the Multi-Resolution Pixel Basis

We quantify pulsar timing array (PTA) sensitivity to anisotropy in the gravitational wave background using the cross-correlation based Fisher information matrix in the pixel and spherical harmonic bases. We use a set of simulations to empirically determine scaling relations of a PTA's sensitivity to anisotropy with the number of pulsars $N_\mathrm{psr}$ in the array, the error $δt$ on the times of arrival, the frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ of the gravitational waves, and the angular scale $ΔΩ$ of the anisotropy. The sensitivity scales approximately as $N_\mathrm{psr}^{0.8}$, $δt^{-0.08}$, and $ΔΩ^{1.6}-ΔΩ^{2.1}$ (depending on the ranges of $\ell$ and $m$ under consideration). In addition, we use realistic simulations to project the NANOGrav PTA sensitivity to a 30-year baseline and quantify the growth in sensitivity at several timeslices. Except at the lowest frequencies, we find negligible effect on sensitivity through increasing the observation duration only. Finally, we introduce a multi-resolution pixel basis motivated by the large dependence of the sensitivity on sky location, and demonstrate the operation of the basis through a set of injections and recoveries.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$) on models of the nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at $4 < z < 6$ without changing the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution marginally improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter that evolves as $\varepsilon(z) = \varepsilon_0 + (0.56 \pm 0.4) \log_{10}(1 + z)$ and normalization that evolves as $α(z) = α_0 (1 + z)^{0.84 \pm 0.35}$. The results of this work imply that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

A sample of short-lived Galactic radio transients from ASKAP VAST

Galactic radio transients (GRTs) are mysterious short-lived (~days to months) radio transients that are quiet at all other wavelengths. Until now, roughly half a dozen such sources have been reported, predominantly towards the Galactic center. However, no unifying properties have been identified among these, leaving their nature, emission mechanism, and even classification poorly understood. Due to the lack of periodic and uniform radio observations over wide areas of the Galactic plane until now, the sample size of such transients remained limited. Here, we use radio observations from the Australian SKA Pathfinder's Variables and Slow Transients survey to discover six new radio transients along the Galactic plane that resemble GRTs. Detailed investigation of archival data suggests that these sources may be divided into two classes: sources that exhibit sporadic, pulse-like (minutes) radio emission, and sources that exhibit long-term (weeks) flaring-type radio emission. For the short-time variable sources, we draw similarities between optically bright long-period radio transients and our sample to propose wide-orbit (~days) white dwarf binaries as underlying sources. For sources that show long-term outbursts, we draw comparisons between dust-obscured outbursts from WD binaries and our sample. These results could imply that the ongoing wide-field radio surveys are uncovering radio emission from sub-populations of WD binaries that were previously unexplored.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Searching for Magnetar Binaries Disrupted by Core-Collapse Supernovae

Core-collapse Supernovae (CCSNe) are considered the primary magnetar formation channel, with 15 magnetars associated with supernova remnants (SNRs). A large fraction of these should occur in massive stellar binaries that are disrupted by the explosion, meaning that $\sim45\%$ of magnetars should be nearby high-velocity stars. Here we conduct a multi-wavelength search for unbound stars, magnetar binaries, and SNR shells using public optical ($uvgrizy-$bands), infrared ($J-$, $H-$, $K-$, and $K_s-$bands), and radio ($888$ MHz, $1.4$ GHz, and $3$ GHz) catalogs. We use Monte Carlo analyses of candidates to estimate the probability of association with a given magnetar based on their proximity, distance, proper motion, and magnitude. In addition to recovering a proposed magnetar binary, a proposed unbound binary, and 13 of 15 magnetar SNRs, we identify two new candidate unbound systems: an OB star from the Gaia catalog we associate with SGR J1822.3-1606, and an X-ray pulsar we associate with 3XMM J185246.6+003317. Using a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation that assumes all magnetars descend from CCSNe, we constrain the fraction of magnetars with unbound companions to $5\lesssim f_u \lesssim 24\%$, which disagrees with neutron star population synthesis results. Alternate formation channels are unlikely to wholly account for the lack of unbound binaries as this would require $31\lesssim f_{nc} \lesssim 66\%$ of magnetars to descend from such channels. Our results support a high fraction ($48\lesssim f_m \lesssim 86\%$) of pre-CCSN mergers, which can amplify fossil magnetic fields to preferentially form magnetars.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

ASKAP J005512.2-255834: A Luminous, Long-Lived Radio Transient at z = 0.1 -- an Orphan Afterglow or an off-nuclear TDE from an IMBH?

We report the discovery of a slowly evolving, extragalactic radio transient, ASKAP J005512.2--255834 (hereafter ASKAP J0055-2558), identified using the Australian SKA Pathfinder in a search for orphan afterglows associated with archival gravitational wave events. Although discovered in this context, there is no evidence that the transient is associated with any known gravitational wave event. Nonetheless, this source exhibits a 20-fold increase in flux density over $<250$ days, and it remains in a declining, detectable state more than 1000 days after the initial detection. Follow-up observations from 0.3 to 9 GHz reveal an evolving spectrum consistent with synchrotron emission. ASKAP J0055-2558 is spatially coincident with a low-mass, star-forming galaxy at redshift $z = 0.116$ ($d_{\rm L}$= 543 Mpc), placing its peak radio luminosity at $νL_ν\sim 10^{39}\,\rm erg\,s^{-1}$. Analysis of its radio light curve, inferred blastwave velocity, energetics, host galaxy properties and the absence of counterparts at other wavelengths suggest that ASKAP J0055-2558 is most consistent with either the late-time phase of an orphan long gamma-ray burst afterglow or a tidal disruption event involving an intermediate-mass black hole spatially offset from the galaxy nucleus. The radio discovery of either of these phenomena is extremely rare, with only a few or no confirmed examples to date.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Inference on inner galaxy structure via gravitational waves from supermassive binaries

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar-timing arrays indicates the presence of a population of supermassive black hole binaries. Although the observed spectrum generally matches predictions for orbital evolution driven by gravitational-wave emission in circular orbits, there is a preference for a spectral turnover at the lowest observed frequencies, which may point to substantial hardening during a transition from early environmental influences to later stages dominated by emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. Here we model how the gravitational-wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile before scouring by binary ejections while accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. By analysing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we find that a parsec-scale galactic-centre density of around $10^6 M_{\odot} \mathrm{pc}^{-3}$ is favoured across most of the parameter space, thus shedding light on the environmental effects that shape black hole evolution and the combined matter density near galaxy centres.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Piecewise Power-Law Reconstruction of the Gravitational-Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data set provides evidence for a gravitational-wave background (GWB) signal at nanohertz frequencies, which is expected to originate either from a cosmic population of inspiraling supermassive black-hole binaries or new particle physics in the early Universe. A firm identification of the source of the NG15 signal requires an accurate reconstruction of its frequency spectrum. In this paper, we provide such a spectral characterization of the NG15 signal based on a piecewise power-law (PPL) ansatz that strikes a balance between existing alternatives in the literature. Our PPL reconstruction is more flexible than the standard constant-power-law model, which describes the GWB spectrum in terms of only two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index gamma. Concurrently, it better approximates physically realistic GWB spectra -- especially those of cosmological origin -- than the free spectral model, since the latter allows for arbitrary variations in the GWB amplitude from one frequency bin to the next. Our PPL reconstruction of the NG15 signal relies on individual PPL models with a fixed number of internal nodes (i.e., constant power law, broken power law, doubly broken power law, etc.) that are ultimately combined in a Bayesian model average. The data products resulting from our analysis provide the basis for fast refits of spectral GWB models.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Targeted Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We present the first targeted searches for continuous gravitational waves (CWs) from 114 active galactic nuclei (AGN) that may host supermassive black hole binaries, using the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. By incorporating electromagnetic priors on sky location, distance, redshift, and CW frequency, our strain and chirp mass upper limits are typically improved by a factor of $\sim 2$ (median 2.2) relative to all-sky limits at the same frequency. Bayesian comparisons against a model including only a Hellings-Downs correlated background disfavors a CW signal for all targets, with a mean Bayes factor of $0.73 \pm 0.32$. Two targets have Bayes factors slightly above unity, but coherence tests, random targeting experiments, and a conservative accounting of the 114-target trials factor all indicate that they are consistent with noise. We use these two candidates as worked examples to illustrate an end-to-end targeted CW search analysis and a suite of follow up tests that future promising candidates would need to pass. We find that the electromagnetic interpretations of both candidates are ambiguous, and we update the constraints on a putative binary in 3C 66B, ruling out part of its previously allowed parameter space. Ultimately, our results demonstrate the current sensitivity of targeted pulsar timing array searches for CWs and define a roadmap for future multimessenger CW detections.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

ASKAP J144834-685644: a newly discovered long period radio transient detected from radio to X-rays

Long-period radio transients (LPTs) are an emerging group of radio transients that show periodic polarized radio bursts with periods varying from a few minutes to a few hours. Fewer than a dozen LPTs have been detected so far, and their origin (source and emission mechanism) remains unclear. Here, we report the discovery of a 1.5 h LPT, ASKAP J144834-685644, adding to the current sample of sources. ASKAP J144834-685644 is one of the very few LPTs that has been detected from X-rays to radio. It shows a steep radio spectrum and polarized radio bursts, which resemble the radio emission in known LPTs. In addition, it also shows highly structured and periodic narrow-band radio emission. Multiwavelength properties suggest that the spectral energy distribution (SED) peaks at near ultraviolet wavelengths, indicating the presence of a hot magnetic source. Combining multiwavelength information, we infer that ASKAP J144834-685644 may be a near edge-on magnetic white dwarf binary (MWD), although we cannot fully rule out ASKAP J144834-685644 being an isolated white dwarf pulsar or even a transitional millisecond pulsar (despite the lack of radio pulsations). If ASKAP J144834-685644 is a MWD binary, the observed broad-band SED can be explained by emission from an accretion disc. This hints that some fraction of optically bright LPTs may be accreting binaries with the radio period being the orbital period. It might further suggest a connection between optically bright synchronized WD binaries, such as polars, and non-accreting asynchronous WD pulsars, such as AR Sco and J1912-4410.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

A gas-rich cosmic web revealed by the partitioning of the missing baryons

Approximately half of the Universe's dark matter resides in collapsed halos; significantly less than half of the baryonic matter (protons and neutrons) remains confined to halos. A small fraction of baryons are in stars and the interstellar medium within galaxies. The lion's share are diffuse ($<$10$^{-3}$ cm$^{-3}$) and ionized (neutral fraction $<$10$^{-4}$), located in the intergalactic medium (IGM) and in the halos of galaxy clusters, groups, and galaxies. This diffuse ionized gas is notoriously difficult to measure, but has wide implications for galaxy formation, astrophysical feedback, and precision cosmology. Recently, the dispersion of extragalactic Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) has been used to measure the total content of cosmic baryons. Here, we present a large cosmological sample of FRB sources localized to their host galaxies. We have robustly partitioned the missing baryons into the IGM, galaxy clusters, and galaxies, providing a late-Universe measurement of the total baryon density of $Ω_b\,h_{70} = 0.051_{-0.006}^{+0.006}$. Our results indicate efficient feedback processes that can deplete galaxy halos and enrich the IGM ($f_{\rm IGM}=0.76_{-0.11}^{+0.10}$), agreeing with the baryon-rich cosmic web scenario seen in cosmological simulations. Our results may reduce the ``$S_8$ tension'' in cosmology, as strong feedback leads to suppression of the matter power spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 Yr Data Set: Removing Pulsars One by One from the Pulsar Timing Array

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Gravitational-Wave Background Methods

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) use an array of millisecond pulsars to search for gravitational waves in the nanohertz regime in pulse time of arrival data. This paper presents rigorous tests of PTA methods, examining their consistency across the relevant parameter space. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms Enterprise and PTMCMCSampler are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster in gravitational wave searches, reducing the required resources facilitating the computation of Bayes factors via thermodynamic integration and sampling a large number of realizations for computing Bayesian false-alarm probabilities. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis methods. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, simulation recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current analyses of PTA data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr data set: Posterior predictive checks for gravitational-wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Their analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks. After fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications. We use the replications to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients are extreme. We recover Hellings--Downs correlations in simulated data sets at significance levels consistent with the correlations measured in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set. A similar test on spectral coefficients shows that their values in real data are not extreme compared to their distributions across replications. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2 $σ$ and 3 $σ$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a search for nonlinear gravitational wave memory in the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find no significant evidence for memory signals in the dataset, with a maximum Bayes factor of 3.1 in favor of a model including memory. We therefore place upper limits on the strain of potential gravitational wave memory events as a function of sky location and observing epoch. We find upper limits that are not always more constraining than previous NANOGrav results. We show that it is likely due to the increase in common red noise between the 12.5-year and 15-year NANOGrav datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

Bow Shock and Local Bubble Plasma Unveiled by the Scintillating Millisecond Pulsar J0437$-$4715

The ionized interstellar medium contains au-scale (and below) structures that scatter radio waves from pulsars, resulting in scintillation. Power spectral analysis of scintillation often shows parabolic arcs, with curvatures that encode the locations and kinematics of the pulsar, Earth, and interstellar plasma. Here we report the discovery of 25 distinct plasma structures in the direction of the brilliant millisecond pulsar, PSR J0437-4715, in observations obtained with the MeerKAT radio telescope. Four arcs reveal structures within 5000 au of the pulsar, from a series of shocks induced as the pulsar and its wind interact with the ambient interstellar medium. The measured radial distance and velocity of the main shock allows us to solve the shock geometry and space velocity of the pulsar in three dimensions, while the velocity of another structure unexpectedly indicates a back flow from the direction of the shock or pulsar-wind tail. The remaining 21 arcs represent a surprising abundance of structures sustained by turbulence within the Local Bubble -- a region of the interstellar medium thought to be depleted of gas by a series of supernova explosions about 14 Myr ago. The Local Bubble is cool enough in areas for sub-au density fluctuations to arise from turbulence.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Detection of X-ray Emission from a Bright Long-Period Radio Transient

Recently, a class of long-period radio transients (LPTs) has been discovered, exhibiting emission on timescales thousands of times longer than radio pulsars. Several models had been proposed implicating either a strong magnetic field neutron star, isolated white dwarf pulsar, or a white dwarf binary system with a low-mass companion. While several models for LPTs also predict X-ray emission, no LPTs have been detected in X-rays despite extensive searches. Here we report the discovery of an extremely bright LPT (10-20 Jy in radio), ASKAP J1832-0911, which has coincident radio and X-ray emission, both with a 44.2-minute period. The X-ray and radio luminosities are correlated and vary by several orders of magnitude. These properties are unique amongst known Galactic objects and require a new explanation. We consider a $\gtrsim0.5$ Myr old magnetar with a $\gtrsim 10^{13}$ G crustal field, or an extremely magnetised white dwarf in a binary system with a dwarf companion, to be plausible explanations for ASKAP J1832-0911, although both explanations pose significant challenges to formation and emission theories. The X-ray detection also establishes a new class of hour-scale periodic X-ray transients of luminosity $\sim10^{33}$ erg/s associated with exceptionally bright coherent radio emission.

astro-ph.HE↗