arXiv subjects

Stephan Hoyer

Publications and source records attributed to Stephan Hoyer.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AIMIP Phase 1: systematic evaluations of AI weather and climate models

We present the AI weather and climate model intercomparison project (AIMIP), phase 1. Drawing from the rich tradition of intercomparisons in climate model development, we specify a common experiment, output data format, and training constraints (namely, training against historical reanalysis data) for AIMIP Phase 1 models. We aim to identify differences in modeling frameworks and AI architectural choices that influence model behavior, and build trust in AI weather and climate models through open data and evaluation. AIMIP Phase 1 models must simulate the atmosphere given specified historical sea surface temperatures over 1979-2024. We evaluate the models' performance using five major evaluation criteria: biases, trends, response to El Ni\~{n}o-related sea surface temperature anomalies, temporal variability, and out-of-sample generalization tests. We find that the AI models are able to simulate the historical climate and response to forcing as well as a conventional physically-based model, but some AI models underestimate historical warming trends, and their predictions diverge in the out-of-sample generalization tests. We describe the AIMIP Phase 1 dataset that is publicly available for additional evaluations.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Accelerating scientific discovery with the common task framework

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms are transforming and empowering the characterization and control of dynamic systems in the engineering, physical, and biological sciences. These emerging modeling paradigms require comparative metrics to evaluate a diverse set of scientific objectives, including forecasting, state reconstruction, generalization, and control, while also considering limited data scenarios and noisy measurements. We introduce a common task framework (CTF) for science and engineering, which features a growing collection of challenge data sets with a diverse set of practical and common objectives. The CTF is a critically enabling technology that has contributed to the rapid advance of ML/AI algorithms in traditional applications such as speech recognition, language processing, and computer vision. There is a critical need for the objective metrics of a CTF to compare the diverse algorithms being rapidly developed and deployed in practice today across science and engineering.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Neural general circulation models optimized to predict satellite-based precipitation observations

Climate models struggle to accurately simulate precipitation, particularly extremes and the diurnal cycle. Here, we present a hybrid model that is trained directly on satellite-based precipitation observations. Our model runs at 2.8$^\circ$ resolution and is built on the differentiable NeuralGCM framework. The model demonstrates significant improvements over existing general circulation models, the ERA5 reanalysis, and a global cloud-resolving model in simulating precipitation. Our approach yields reduced biases, a more realistic precipitation distribution, improved representation of extremes, and a more accurate diurnal cycle. Furthermore, it outperforms the mid-range precipitation forecast of the ECMWF ensemble. This advance paves the way for more reliable simulations of current climate and demonstrates how training on observations can be used to directly improve GCMs.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

4D-Var using Hessian approximation and backpropagation applied to automatically-differentiable numerical and machine learning models

Constraining a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with observations via 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation is often difficult to implement in practice due to the need to develop and maintain a software-based tangent linear model and adjoint model. One of the most common 4D-Var algorithms uses an incremental update procedure, which has been shown to be an approximation of the Gauss-Newton method. Here we demonstrate that when using a forecast model that supports automatic differentiation, an efficient and in some cases more accurate alternative approximation of the Gauss-Newton method can be applied by combining backpropagation of errors with Hessian approximation. This approach can be used with either a conventional numerical model implemented within a software framework that supports automatic differentiation, or a machine learning (ML) based surrogate model. We test the new approach on a variety of Lorenz-96 and quasi-geostrophic models. The results indicate potential for a deeper integration of modeling, data assimilation, and new technologies in a next-generation of operational forecast systems that leverage weather models designed to support automatic differentiation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

DySLIM: Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure for Chaotic Systems

Learning dynamics from dissipative chaotic systems is notoriously difficult due to their inherent instability, as formalized by their positive Lyapunov exponents, which exponentially amplify errors in the learned dynamics. However, many of these systems exhibit ergodicity and an attractor: a compact and highly complex manifold, to which trajectories converge in finite-time, that supports an invariant measure, i.e., a probability distribution that is invariant under the action of the dynamics, which dictates the long-term statistical behavior of the system. In this work, we leverage this structure to propose a new framework that targets learning the invariant measure as well as the dynamics, in contrast with typical methods that only target the misfit between trajectories, which often leads to divergence as the trajectories' length increases. We use our framework to propose a tractable and sample efficient objective that can be used with any existing learning objectives. Our Dynamics Stable Learning by Invariant Measure (DySLIM) objective enables model training that achieves better point-wise tracking and long-term statistical accuracy relative to other learning objectives. By targeting the distribution with a scalable regularization term, we hope that this approach can be extended to more complex systems exhibiting slowly-variant distributions, such as weather and climate models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present the first GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with ML components, and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best ML and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with ML models for 1-10 day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for 1-15 day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics such as global mean temperature for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140 km resolution exhibit emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs, and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Learning to correct spectral methods for simulating turbulent flows

Despite their ubiquity throughout science and engineering, only a handful of partial differential equations (PDEs) have analytical, or closed-form solutions. This motivates a vast amount of classical work on numerical simulation of PDEs and more recently, a whirlwind of research into data-driven techniques leveraging machine learning (ML). A recent line of work indicates that a hybrid of classical numerical techniques and machine learning can offer significant improvements over either approach alone. In this work, we show that the choice of the numerical scheme is crucial when incorporating physics-based priors. We build upon Fourier-based spectral methods, which are known to be more efficient than other numerical schemes for simulating PDEs with smooth and periodic solutions. Specifically, we develop ML-augmented spectral solvers for three common PDEs of fluid dynamics. Our models are more accurate (2-4x) than standard spectral solvers at the same resolution but have longer overall runtimes (~2x), due to the additional runtime cost of the neural network component. We also demonstrate a handful of key design principles for combining machine learning and numerical methods for solving PDEs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Efficient and Modular Implicit Differentiation

Automatic differentiation (autodiff) has revolutionized machine learning. It allows to express complex computations by composing elementary ones in creative ways and removes the burden of computing their derivatives by hand. More recently, differentiation of optimization problem solutions has attracted widespread attention with applications such as optimization layers, and in bi-level problems such as hyper-parameter optimization and meta-learning. However, so far, implicit differentiation remained difficult to use for practitioners, as it often required case-by-case tedious mathematical derivations and implementations. In this paper, we propose automatic implicit differentiation, an efficient and modular approach for implicit differentiation of optimization problems. In our approach, the user defines directly in Python a function $F$ capturing the optimality conditions of the problem to be differentiated. Once this is done, we leverage autodiff of $F$ and the implicit function theorem to automatically differentiate the optimization problem. Our approach thus combines the benefits of implicit differentiation and autodiff. It is efficient as it can be added on top of any state-of-the-art solver and modular as the optimality condition specification is decoupled from the implicit differentiation mechanism. We show that seemingly simple principles allow to recover many existing implicit differentiation methods and create new ones easily. We demonstrate the ease of formulating and solving bi-level optimization problems using our framework. We also showcase an application to the sensitivity analysis of molecular dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Variational Data Assimilation with a Learned Inverse Observation Operator

Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a cornerstone of large scale forecasting applications such as numerical weather prediction. As such, it is implemented in current operational systems of weather forecasting agencies across the globe. However, finding a good initial state poses a difficult optimization problem in part due to the non-invertible relationship between physical states and their corresponding observations. We learn a mapping from observational data to physical states and show how it can be used to improve optimizability. We employ this mapping in two ways: to better initialize the non-convex optimization problem, and to reformulate the objective function in better behaved physics space instead of observation space. Our experimental results for the Lorenz96 model and a two-dimensional turbulent fluid flow demonstrate that this procedure significantly improves forecast quality for chaotic systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics

Numerical simulation of fluids plays an essential role in modeling many physical phenomena, such as weather, climate, aerodynamics and plasma physics. Fluids are well described by the Navier-Stokes equations, but solving these equations at scale remains daunting, limited by the computational cost of resolving the smallest spatiotemporal features. This leads to unfavorable trade-offs between accuracy and tractability. Here we use end-to-end deep learning to improve approximations inside computational fluid dynamics for modeling two-dimensional turbulent flows. For both direct numerical simulation of turbulence and large eddy simulation, our results are as accurate as baseline solvers with 8-10x finer resolution in each spatial dimension, resulting in 40-80x fold computational speedups. Our method remains stable during long simulations, and generalizes to forcing functions and Reynolds numbers outside of the flows where it is trained, in contrast to black box machine learning approaches. Our approach exemplifies how scientific computing can leverage machine learning and hardware accelerators to improve simulations without sacrificing accuracy or generalization.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2020

Kohn-Sham equations as regularizer: building prior knowledge into machine-learned physics

Including prior knowledge is important for effective machine learning models in physics, and is usually achieved by explicitly adding loss terms or constraints on model architectures. Prior knowledge embedded in the physics computation itself rarely draws attention. We show that solving the Kohn-Sham equations when training neural networks for the exchange-correlation functional provides an implicit regularization that greatly improves generalization. Two separations suffice for learning the entire one-dimensional H$_2$ dissociation curve within chemical accuracy, including the strongly correlated region. Our models also generalize to unseen types of molecules and overcome self-interaction error.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

Array Programming with NumPy

Array programming provides a powerful, compact, expressive syntax for accessing, manipulating, and operating on data in vectors, matrices, and higher-dimensional arrays. NumPy is the primary array programming library for the Python language. It plays an essential role in research analysis pipelines in fields as diverse as physics, chemistry, astronomy, geoscience, biology, psychology, material science, engineering, finance, and economics. For example, in astronomy, NumPy was an important part of the software stack used in the discovery of gravitational waves and the first imaging of a black hole. Here we show how a few fundamental array concepts lead to a simple and powerful programming paradigm for organizing, exploring, and analyzing scientific data. NumPy is the foundation upon which the entire scientific Python universe is constructed. It is so pervasive that several projects, targeting audiences with specialized needs, have developed their own NumPy-like interfaces and array objects. Because of its central position in the ecosystem, NumPy increasingly plays the role of an interoperability layer between these new array computation libraries.

cs.MS↗

arXiv2020

Learned discretizations for passive scalar advection in a 2-D turbulent flow

The computational cost of fluid simulations increases rapidly with grid resolution. This has given a hard limit on the ability of simulations to accurately resolve small scale features of complex flows. Here we use a machine learning approach to learn a numerical discretization that retains high accuracy even when the solution is under-resolved with classical methods. We apply this approach to passive scalar advection in a two-dimensional turbulent flow. The method maintains the same accuracy as traditional high-order flux-limited advection solvers, while using 4x lower grid resolution in each dimension. The machine learning component is tightly integrated with traditional finite-volume schemes and can be trained via an end-to-end differentiable programming framework. The solver can achieve near-peak hardware utilization on CPUs and accelerators via convolutional filters. Code is available at https://github.com/google-research/data-driven-pdes.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2020

Lagrangian Neural Networks

Accurate models of the world are built upon notions of its underlying symmetries. In physics, these symmetries correspond to conservation laws, such as for energy and momentum. Yet even though neural network models see increasing use in the physical sciences, they struggle to learn these symmetries. In this paper, we propose Lagrangian Neural Networks (LNNs), which can parameterize arbitrary Lagrangians using neural networks. In contrast to models that learn Hamiltonians, LNNs do not require canonical coordinates, and thus perform well in situations where canonical momenta are unknown or difficult to compute. Unlike previous approaches, our method does not restrict the functional form of learned energies and will produce energy-conserving models for a variety of tasks. We test our approach on a double pendulum and a relativistic particle, demonstrating energy conservation where a baseline approach incurs dissipation and modeling relativity without canonical coordinates where a Hamiltonian approach fails. Finally, we show how this model can be applied to graphs and continuous systems using a Lagrangian Graph Network, and demonstrate it on the 1D wave equation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Inundation Modeling in Data Scarce Regions

Flood forecasts are crucial for effective individual and governmental protective action. The vast majority of flood-related casualties occur in developing countries, where providing spatially accurate forecasts is a challenge due to scarcity of data and lack of funding. This paper describes an operational system providing flood extent forecast maps covering several flood-prone regions in India, with the goal of being sufficiently scalable and cost-efficient to facilitate the establishment of effective flood forecasting systems globally.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Neural reparameterization improves structural optimization

Structural optimization is a popular method for designing objects such as bridge trusses, airplane wings, and optical devices. Unfortunately, the quality of solutions depends heavily on how the problem is parameterized. In this paper, we propose using the implicit bias over functions induced by neural networks to improve the parameterization of structural optimization. Rather than directly optimizing densities on a grid, we instead optimize the parameters of a neural network which outputs those densities. This reparameterization leads to different and often better solutions. On a selection of 116 structural optimization tasks, our approach produces the best design 50% more often than the best baseline method.

cs.LG↗