arXiv subjects

Stephane Bonhomme

Publications and source records attributed to Stephane Bonhomme.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Back to Feedback: Dynamics and Heterogeneity in Panel Data

Many popular estimation methods in panel data rely on the assumption that the covariates of interest are strictly exogenous. However, this assumption is empirically restrictive in a wide range of settings. In this paper I argue that credible empirical work requires meaningfully relaxing strict exogeneity assumptions. Econometricians have developed methods that allow for sequential exogeneity, which in contrast with strict exogeneity allows for the presence of feedback from past outcomes to future covariates or treatments. I review some of the classic work on linear models with constant coefficients, and then describe some approaches that allow for coefficient heterogeneity in models with feedback. Finally, in the last two parts of the paper I review recent work that allows for sequential exogeneity in nonlinear panel data models, and mention possible extensions to network settings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Indirect Variational Inference: Applications to Earnings Dynamics

Latent-variable models are central to economics but often entail intractable integration. Variational inference (VI), widely used in machine learning, turns this integration into tractable, differentiable optimization by replacing the likelihood with a variational objective. However, guarantees of recovering the true parameters remain limited when the variational family is insufficiently flexible -- a key obstacle to the adoption of VI in economics. We first evaluate VI in models of earnings dynamics and show that the choice of variational posterior is crucial. We then introduce indirect variational inference (IVI), which treats VI as an auxiliary model and corrects the bias induced by the variational approximation. IVI retains much of VI's tractability because it does not require computing the likelihood. We apply these methods to models allowing for nonlinear persistence, non-Gaussian and serially correlated transitory shocks, and latent heterogeneity. Across simulated and empirical applications, flexible variational families combined with IVI deliver reliable estimates.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Estimating Individual Responses when Tomorrow Matters

We propose an approach to estimate how individuals' expectations influence their responses to a counterfactual change. The approach relies on average partial effects, which recover counterfactual impacts under conditions that we specify. We propose a three-step estimation method that relies on panel data on subjective expectations. We illustrate our approach in a model of consumption and saving, focusing on the impact of an income tax that not only changes current income but also affects beliefs about future income. Applying our approach to Italian survey data, we find that individuals' beliefs matter for evaluating the impact of tax policies on consumption decisions.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

A Users' Guide to Uncovering Worker and Firm Effects: The ABC of AKM

The AKM model introduced by Abowd, Kramarz and Margolis (1999) has become a workhorse to study worker and firm heterogeneity, and to understand the sources of wage dispersion in the labor market using linked employer-employee data. In this article, we introduce the model and estimator, discuss some best practices for estimation, and review some empirical findings on the role of worker and firm heterogeneity in wage dispersion. While the AKM methodology has proven useful to analyze a host of questions in a variety of settings within labor economics and beyond, we also point to the need for methodological developments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Estimating Heterogeneous Effects: Applications to Labor Economics

A growing number of applications involve settings where, in order to infer heterogeneous effects, a researcher compares various units. Examples of research designs include children moving between different neighborhoods, workers moving between firms, patients migrating from one city to another, and banks offering loans to different firms. We present a unified framework for these settings, based on a linear model with normal random coefficients and normal errors. Using the model, we discuss how to recover the mean and dispersion of effects, other features of their distribution, and to construct predictors of the effects. We provide moment conditions on the model's parameters, and outline various estimation strategies. A main objective of the paper is to clarify some of the underlying assumptions by highlighting their economic content, and to discuss and inform some of the key practical choices.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

Teams: Heterogeneity, Sorting, and Complementarity

How much do individuals contribute to team output? I propose an econometric framework to quantify individual contributions when only the output of their teams is observed. The identification strategy relies on following individuals who work in different teams over time. I consider two production technologies. For a production function that is additive in worker inputs, I propose a regression estimator and show how to obtain unbiased estimates of variance components that measure the contributions of heterogeneity and sorting. To estimate nonlinear models with complementarity, I propose a mixture approach under the assumption that individual types are discrete, and rely on a mean-field variational approximation for estimation. To illustrate the methods, I estimate the impact of economists on their research output, and the contributions of inventors to the quality of their patents.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2019

Recovering Latent Variables by Matching

We propose an optimal-transport-based matching method to nonparametrically estimate linear models with independent latent variables. The method consists in generating pseudo-observations from the latent variables, so that the Euclidean distance between the model's predictions and their matched counterparts in the data is minimized. We show that our nonparametric estimator is consistent, and we document that it performs well in simulated data. We apply this method to study the cyclicality of permanent and transitory income shocks in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that the dispersion of income shocks is approximately acyclical, whereas the skewness of permanent shocks is procyclical. By comparison, we find that the dispersion and skewness of shocks to hourly wages vary little with the business cycle.

econ.EM↗