arXiv subjects

Stephen Gwyn

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen Gwyn.

At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

A Deconvolution Technique to Correct Deep Images of Galaxies from Instrumental Scattered Light

Deep imaging of the diffuse light emitted by the stellar fine structures and outer halos around galaxies is now often used to probe their past mass assembly. Because the extended halos survive longer than the relatively fragile tidal features, they trace more ancient mergers. We use images reaching surface brightness limits as low as 28.5-29 mag.arcsec-2 (g-band) to obtain light and color profiles up to 5-10 effective radii of a sample of nearby early-type galaxies. They were acquired with MegaCam as part of the CFHT MATLAS large programme. These profiles may be compared to those produced by simulations of galaxy formation and evolution, once corrected for instrumental effects. Indeed they can be heavily contaminated by the scattered light caused by internal reflections within the instrument. In particular, the nucleus of galaxies generates artificial flux in the outer halo, which has to be precisely subtracted. We present a deconvolution technique to remove the artificial halos that makes use of very large kernels. The technique based on PyOperators is more time efficient than the model-convolution methods also used for that purpose. This is especially the case for galaxies with complex structures that are hard to model. Having a good knowledge of the Point Spread Function (PSF), including its outer wings, is critical for the method. A database of MegaCam PSF models corresponding to different seeing conditions and bands was generated directly from the deep images. It is shown that the difference in the PSFs in different bands causes artificial changes in the color profiles, in particular a reddening of the outskirts of galaxies having a bright nucleus. The method is validated with a set of simulated images and applied to three representative test cases: NGC 3599, NGC 3489, and NGC 4274, and exhibiting for two of them a prominent ghost halo. The method successfully removes it.

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arXiv2016

Globular Clusters As Tracers of Fine Structure in the Dramatic Shell Galaxy NGC 474

Globular clusters (GCs) are some of the most visible tracers of the merging and accretion history of galaxy halos. Metal-poor GCs, in particular, are thought to arrive in massive galaxies largely through dry, minor merging events, but it is rare to see a direct connection between GCs and visible stellar streams. NGC 474 is a post-merger early-type galaxy with dramatic fine structures made of concentric shells and radial streams that have been more clearly revealed by deep imaging. We present a study of GCs in NGC 474 to better establish the relationship between merger-induced fine structure and the GC system. We find that many GCs are superimposed on visible streams and shells, and about 35% of GCs outside $3R_{\rm e,galaxy}$ are located in regions of fine structure. The spatial correlation between the GCs and fine structure is significant at the 99.9% level, showing that this correlation is not coincidental. The colors of the GCs on the fine structures are mostly blue, and we also find an intermediate-color population that is dominant in the central region, and which will likely passively evolve to have colors consistent with a traditional metal-rich GC population. The association of the blue GCs with fine structures is direct confirmation that many metal-poor GCs are accreted onto massive galaxy halos through merging events, and that progenitors of these mergers are sub-L* galaxies.

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arXiv2016

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS). XXIV. The Red Sequence to $\sim$10$^6$ L$_{\odot}$ and Comparisons with Galaxy Formation Models

We use deep optical photometry from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey [NGVS] to investigate the color-magnitude diagram for the galaxies inhabiting the core of this cluster. The sensitivity of the NGVS imaging allows us to continuously probe galaxy colors over a factor of $\sim 2 \times 10^5$ in luminosity, from brightest cluster galaxies to scales overlapping classical satellites of the Milky Way [$M_{g^{\prime}}$ $\sim$ $-$9; $M_{*}$ $\sim 10^6$ M$_{\odot}$], within a single environment. Remarkably, we find the first evidence that the RS flattens in all colors at the faint-magnitude end [starting between $-$14 $\le$ $M_{g^{\prime}}$ $\le$ $-$13, around $M_{*}$ $\sim 4 \times 10^7$ M$_{\odot}$], with the slope decreasing to $\sim$60% or less of its value at brighter magnitudes. This could indicate that the stellar populations of faint dwarfs in Virgo's core share similar characteristics [e.g. constant mean age] over $\sim$3 mags in luminosity, suggesting that these galaxies were quenched coevally, likely via pre-processing in smaller hosts. We also compare our results to galaxy formation models, finding that the RS in model clusters have slopes at intermediate magnitudes that are too shallow, and in the case of semi-analytic models, do not reproduce the flattening seen at both extremes [bright/faint] of the Virgo RS. Deficiencies in the chemical evolution of model galaxies likely contribute to the model-data discrepancies at all masses, while overly efficient quenching may also be a factor at dwarf scales. Deep UV and near-IR photometry are required to unambiguously diagnose the cause of the faint-end flattening.

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arXiv2016

OSSOS III - Resonant Trans-Neptunian Populations: Constraints from the first quarter of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey

The first two observational sky "blocks" of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) have significantly increased the number of well-characterized observed trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) in Neptune's mean motion resonances. We describe the 31 securely resonant TNOs detected by OSSOS so far, and we use them to independently verify the resonant population models from the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS; Gladman et al. 2012), with which we find broad agreement. We confirm that the 5:2 resonance is more populated than models of the outer Solar System's dynamical history predict; our minimum population estimate shows that the high eccentricity (e>0.35) portion of the resonance is at least as populous as the 2:1 and possibly as populated as the 3:2 resonance. One OSSOS block was well-suited to detecting objects trapped at low libration amplitudes in Neptune's 3:2 resonance, a population of interest in testing the origins of resonant TNOs. We detected three 3:2 objects with libration amplitudes below the cutoff modeled by CFEPS; OSSOS thus offers new constraints on this distribution. The OSSOS detections confirm that the 2:1 resonance has a dynamically colder inclination distribution than either the 3:2 or 5:2 resonances. Using the combined OSSOS and CFEPS 2:1 detections, we constrain the fraction of 2:1 objects in the symmetric mode of libration to be 0.2-0.85; we also constrain the fraction of leading vs. trailing asymmetric librators, which has been theoretically predicted to vary depending on Neptune's migration history, to be 0.05-0.8. Future OSSOS blocks will improve these constraints.

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arXiv2016

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey XVI. The Angular Momentum of Dwarf Early-Type Galaxies from Globular Cluster Satellites

We analyze the kinematics of six Virgo cluster dwarf early-type galaxies (dEs) from their globular cluster (GC) systems. We present new Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy for three of them and reanalyze the data found in the literature for the remaining three. We use two independent methods to estimate the rotation amplitude (Vmax) and velocity dispersion (sigma_GC) of the GC systems and evaluate their statistical significance by simulating non-rotating GC systems with the same number of GC satellites and velocity uncertainties. Our measured kinematics agree with the published values for the three galaxies from the literature and, in all cases, some rotation is measured. However, our simulations show that the null hypothesis of being non-rotating GC systems cannot be ruled out. In the case of VCC1861, the measured Vmax and the simulations indicate that it is not rotating. In the case of VCC1528, the null hypothesis can be marginally ruled out, thus, it might be rotating although further confirmation is needed. In our analysis, we find that, in general, the measured Vmax tends to be overestimated and the measured sigma_GC tends to be underestimated by amounts that depend on the intrinsic Vmax/sigma_GC, the number of observed GCs (N_GC), and the velocity uncertainties. The bias is negligible when N_GC>~20. In those cases where a large N_GC is not available, it is imperative to obtain data with small velocity uncertainties. For instance, errors of <2km/s lead to Vmax<10km/s for a system that is intrinsically not rotating.

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arXiv2016

Deep imaging of the shell elliptical galaxy NGC3923 with MegaCam

Context. The elliptical galaxy NGC 3923 is known to be surrounded by a number of stellar shells, probable remnants of an accreted galaxy. Despite its uniqueness, the deepest images of its outskirts come from the 1980s. On the basis of the modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND), it has recently been predicted that a new shell lies in this region. Aims. We obtain the deepest image ever of the galaxy, map the tidal features in it, and search for the predicted shell. Methods. The image of the galaxy was taken by the MegaCam camera at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in the g' band. It reached the surface-brightness limit of 29 mag/arcsec2. In addition, we reanalyzed an archival HST image of the galaxy. Results. We detected up to 42 shells in NGC 3923. This is by far the highest number among all shell galaxies. We present the description of the shells and other tidal features in the galaxy. A probable progenitor of some of these features was discovered. The shell system likely originates from two or more progenitors. The predicted shell was not detected, but the new image revealed that the prediction was based on incorrect assumptions and poor data.

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arXiv2015

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey. X. Properties of Ultra-Compact Dwarfs in the M87, M49 and M60 Regions

We use imaging from the Next Generation Virgo cluster Survey (NGVS) to present a comparative study of ultra-compact dwarf (UCD) galaxies associated with three prominent Virgo sub-clusters: those centered on the massive, red-sequence galaxies M87, M49 and M60. We show how UCDs can be selected with high completeness using a combination of half-light radius and location in color-color diagrams ($u^*iK_s$ or $u^*gz$). Although the central galaxies in each of these sub-clusters have nearly identical luminosities and stellar masses, we find large differences in the sizes of their UCD populations, with M87 containing ~3.5 and 7.8 times more UCDs than M49 and M60, respectively. The relative abundance of UCDs in the three regions scales in proportion to sub-cluster mass, as traced by X-ray gas mass, total gravitating mass, number of globular clusters, and number of nearby galaxies. We find that the UCDs are predominantly blue in color, with ~85% of the UCDs having colors similar to blue GCs and stellar nuclei of dwarf galaxies. We present evidence that UCDs surrounding M87 and M49 may follow a morphological sequence ordered by the prominence of their outer, low surface brightness envelope, ultimately merging with the sequence of nucleated low-mass galaxies, and that envelope prominence correlates with distance from either galaxy. Our analysis provides evidence that tidal stripping of nucleated galaxies is an important process in the formation of UCDs.

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arXiv2015

The Most Massive Ultra-Compact Dwarf Galaxy in the Virgo Cluster

We report on the properties of the most massive ultra-compact dwarf galaxy (UCD) in the nearby Virgo Cluster of galaxies using imaging from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) and spectroscopy from Keck/DEIMOS. This object (M59-UCD3) appears to be associated with the massive Virgo galaxy M59 (NGC 4621), has an integrated velocity dispersion of 78 km/s, a dynamical mass of $3.7\times10^8 M_\odot$, and an effective radius ($R_e$) of 25 pc. With an effective surface mass density of $9.4\times10^{10} M_\odot/kpc^2$, it is the densest galaxy in the local Universe discovered to date, surpassing the density of the luminous Virgo UCD, M60-UCD1. M59-UCD3 has a total luminosity of $M_{g'}=-14.2$ mag, and a spectral energy distribution consistent with an old (14 Gyr) stellar population with [Fe/H]=0.0 and [$α$/Fe]=+0.2. We also examine deep imaging around M59 and find a broad low surface brightness stream pointing towards M59-UCD3, which may represent a tidal remnant of the UCD progenitor. This UCD, along with similar objects like M60-UCD1 and M59cO, likely represents an extreme population of tidally stripped galaxies more akin to larger and more massive compact early-type galaxies than to nuclear star clusters in present-day dwarf galaxies.

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arXiv2015

Galaxies at the extremes: Ultra-diffuse galaxies in the Virgo Cluster

We report the discovery of three large (R29 >~ 1 arcminute) extremely low surface brightness (mu_(V,0) ~ 27.0) galaxies identified using our deep, wide-field imaging of the Virgo Cluster from the Burrell Schmidt telescope. Complementary data from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey do not resolve red giant branch stars in these objects down to i=24, yielding a lower distance limit of 2.5 Mpc. At the Virgo distance, these objects have half-light radii 3-10 kpc and luminosities L_V=2-9x10^7 Lsun. These galaxies are comparable in size but lower in surface brightness than the large ultradiffuse LSB galaxies recently identified in the Coma cluster, and are located well within Virgo's virial radius; two are projected directly on the cluster core. One object appears to be a nucleated LSB in the process of being tidally stripped to form a new Virgo ultracompact dwarf galaxy. The others show no sign of tidal disruption, despite the fact that such objects should be most vulnerable to tidal destruction in the cluster environment. The relative proximity of Virgo makes these objects amenable to detailed studies of their structural properties and stellar populations. They thus provide an important new window onto the connection between cluster environment and galaxy evolution at the extremes.

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arXiv2015

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey. XII. Stellar Populations and Kinematics of Compact, Low-Mass Early-Type Galaxies from Gemini GMOS-IFU Spectroscopy

We present Gemini GMOS-IFU data of eight compact low-mass early-type galaxies (ETGs) in the Virgo cluster. We analyse their stellar kinematics, stellar population, and present two-dimensional maps of these properties covering the central 5"x 7" region. We find a large variety of kinematics: from non- to highly-rotating objects, often associated with underlying disky isophotes revealed by deep images from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey. In half of our objects, we find a centrally-concentrated younger and more metal-rich stellar population. We analyze the specific stellar angular momentum through the lambdaR parameter and find six fast-rotators and two slow-rotators, one having a thin counter-rotating disk. We compare the local galaxy density and stellar populations of our objects with those of 39 more extended low-mass Virgo ETGs from the SMAKCED survey and 260 massive ($M>10^{10}$\Msun) ETGs from the A3D sample. The compact low-mass ETGs in our sample are located in high density regions, often close to a massive galaxy and have, on average, older and more metal-rich stellar populations than less compact low-mass galaxies. We find that the stellar population parameters follow lines of constant velocity dispersion in the mass-size plane, smoothly extending the comparable trends found for massive ETGs. Our study supports a scenario where low-mass compact ETGs have experienced long-lived interactions with their environment, including ram-pressure stripping and gravitational tidal forces, that may be responsible for their compact nature.

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arXiv2014

A carefully characterised and tracked Trans-Neptunian survey, the size-distribution of the Plutinos and the number of Neptunian Trojans

The Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) may preserve evidence of planet building in their orbital and size-distributions. While all populations show steep size-distributions for large objects, recently relative deficit of Neptunian Trojans and scattering objects with diameters $D<100\,\mathrm{km}$ were detected. We have investigated this deficit with a 32 square degree survey, detecting 77 TNOs to a limiting $r$-band magnitude of 24.6. Our Plutinos sample (18 objects in 3:2 mean motion resonance with Neptune) also shows a deficit of $D<100\,\mathrm{km}$ objects. We reject a single power-law size-distribution and find that the Plutinos favour a divot. The Plutinos are thus added the list of populations with a deficit of $D<100\,\mathrm{km}$ objects. The fact that three independent samples of three different populations show this trend suggests that it is a real feature, possibly shared by all hot TNO populations as a remnant of "born big" planetesimal formation processes. We surmise the existence of $9000\pm3000$ Plutinos with $H_r\leq8.66$ and $37000^{+12000}_{-10000}$ Plutinos with $H_r\leq10.0$. Our survey also discovered one temporary Uranian Trojan, one temporary Neptunian Trojans and one stable Neptunian Trojan, from which we derive populations of $110^{+500}_{-100}$, $210^{+900}_{-200}$ and $150^{+600}_{-140}$ , respectively, with $H_r\leq10.0$. The Neptunian Trojans are thus less numerous than the main belt asteroids, which has over 700 asteroids with $H_r\leq10.0$. With such numbers, the temporary Neptunian Trojans cannot be previously stable Trojans that happen to be escaping the resonance now; they must be captured from another reservoir. With three 3:1 and one 4:1 resonators, we add to the growing evidence that the high-order resonances are more populated than expected.

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arXiv2014

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey. VIII. The Spatial Distribution of Globular Clusters in the Virgo Cluster

We report on a large-scale study of the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) throughout the Virgo cluster, based on photometry from the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey, a large imaging survey covering Virgo's primary subclusters to their virial radii. Using the g', (g'-i') color-magnitude diagram of unresolved and marginally-resolved sources, we constructed 2-D maps of the GC distribution. We present the clearest evidence to date showing the difference in concentration between red and blue GCs over the extent of the cluster, where the red (metal-rich) GCs are largely located around the massive early-type galaxies, whilst the blue (metal-poor) GCs have a more extended spatial distribution, with significant populations present beyond 83' (215 kpc) along the major axes of M49 and M87. The GC distribution around M87 and M49 shows remarkable agreement with the shape, ellipticity and boxiness of the diffuse light surrounding both galaxies. We find evidence for spatial enhancements of GCs surrounding M87 that may be indicative of recent interactions or an ongoing merger history. We compare the GC map to the locations of Virgo galaxies and the intracluster X-ray gas, and find good agreement between these baryonic structures. The Virgo cluster contains a total population of 67300$\pm$14400 GCs, of which 35% are located in M87 and M49 alone. We compute a cluster-wide specific frequency S_N,CL=$2.8\pm0.7$, including Virgo's diffuse light. The GC-to-baryonic mass fraction is e_b=$5.7\pm1.1\times10^{-4} $and the GC-to-total cluster mass formation efficiency is e_t=$2.9\pm0.5\times10^{-5}$, values slightly lower than, but consistent with, those derived for individual galactic halos. Our results show that the production of the complex structures in the unrelaxed Virgo cluster core (including the diffuse intracluster light) is an ongoing process.(abridged)

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arXiv2014

The Next Generation Virgo cluster Survey. V. modelling the dynamics of M87 with the Made-to-Measure method

We study the dynamics of the giant elliptical galaxy M87 from the central to the outermost regions with the made-to-measure (M2M) method. We use a new catalogue of 922 globular cluster line-of- sight velocities extending to a projected radius of 180 kpc (equivalent to 25 M87 effective radii), and SAURON integral field unit data within the central 2.4 kpc. 263 globular clusters, mainly located beyond 40 kpc, are newly observed by the Next Generation Virgo Survey (NGVS). For the M2M modelling, the gravitational potential is taken as a combination of a luminous matter potential with a constant stellar mass-to-light ratio and a dark matter potential modelled as a logarithmic potential. Our best dynamical model returns a stellar mass-to-light ratio in the I band of M/LI = 6.0(+ -0.3) M_sun/L_sun with a dark matter potential scale velocity of 591(+ -50) km/s and scale radius of 42(+ -10) kpc. We determine the total mass of M87 within 180 kpc to be (1.5 + - 0.2) 10^13 M_sun. The mass within 40 kpc is smaller than previous estimates determined using globular cluster kinematics that did not extend beyond 45 kpc. With our new globular cluster velocities at much larger radii, we see that globular clusters around 40 kpc show an anomalously large velocity dispersion which affected previous results. The mass we derived is in good agreement with that inferred from ROSAT X-ray observation out to 180 kpc. Within 30 kpc our mass is also consistent with that inferred from Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray observations, while within 120 kpc it is about 20% smaller. The model velocity dispersion anisotropy beta parameter for the globular clusters in M87 is small, varying from -0.2 at the centre to 0.2 at 40 kpc, and gradually decreasing to zero at 120 kpc.

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arXiv2013

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey - Infrared (NGVS-IR): I. A new Near-UV/Optical/Near-IR Globular Cluster selection tool

The NGVS-IR project (Next Generation Virgo Survey - Infrared) is a contiguous near-infrared imaging survey of the Virgo cluster of galaxies. It complements the optical wide-field survey of Virgo (NGVS). The current state of NGVS-IR consists of Ks-band imaging of 4 deg^2 centered on M87, and J and Ks-band imaging of 16 deg^2 covering the region between M49 and M87. In this paper, we present the observations of the central 4 deg^2 centered on Virgo's core region. The data were acquired with WIRCam on the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope and the total integration time was 41 hours distributed in 34 contiguous tiles. A survey-specific strategy was designed to account for extended galaxies while still measuring accurate sky brightness within the survey area. The average 5σlimiting magnitude is Ks=24.4 AB mag and the 50% completeness limit is Ks=23.75 AB mag for point source detections, when using only images with better than 0.7" seeing (median seeing 0.54"). Star clusters are marginally resolved in these image stacks, and Virgo galaxies with μ_Ks=24.4 AB mag arcsec^-2 are detected. Combining the Ks data with optical and ultraviolet data, we build the uiK color-color diagram which allows a very clean color-based selection of globular clusters in Virgo. This diagnostic plot will provide reliable globular cluster candidates for spectroscopic follow-up campaigns needed to continue the exploration of Virgo's photometric and kinematic sub-structures, and will help the design of future searches for globular clusters in extragalactic systems. Equipped with this powerful new tool, future NGVS-IR investigations based on the uiK diagram will address the mapping and analysis of extended structures and compact stellar systems in and around Virgo galaxies.

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arXiv2013

A Uranian Trojan and the frequency of temporary giant-planet co-orbitals

Trojan objects share a planet's orbit, never straying far from the triangular Lagrangian points, 60 degrees ahead of (L4) or behind (L5) the planet. We report the detection of a Uranian Trojan; in our numerical integrations, 2011 QF99 oscillates around the Uranian L4 Lagrange point for >70 kyr and remains co-orbital for ~1 Myr before becoming a Centaur. We constructed a Centaur model, supplied from the transneptunian region, to estimate temporary co-orbital capture frequency and duration (to factor of two accuracy), finding that at any time 0.4% and 2.8% of the population will be Uranian and Neptunian co-orbitals, respectively. The co-orbital fraction (~2.4%) among Centaurs in the IAU Minor Planet Centre database is thus as expected under transneptunian supply.

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arXiv2013

Discovery of a New Member of the Inner Oort Cloud from The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey

We report the discovery of 2010 GB$_{174}$, a likely new member of the Inner Oort Cloud (IOC). 2010 GB$_{174}$ is one of 91 Trans Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs discovered in a 76 deg$^2$ contiguous region imaged as part of the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) --- a moderate ecliptic latitude survey reaching a mean limiting magnitude of $g^\prime \simeq 25.5$ --- using MegaPrime on the 3.6m Canada France Hawaii Telescope. 2010 GB$_{174}$ is found to have an orbit with semi-major axis $a\simeq350.8$ AU, inclination $i \simeq 21.6^\circ$ and pericentre $q\sim48.5$ AU. This is the second largest perihelion distance among known solar system objects. Based on the sky coverage and depth of the NGVS, we estimate the number of IOC members with sizes larger than 300 km ($H_V \le 6.2$ mag) to be $\simeq 11\,000$. A comparison of the detection rate from the NGVS and the PDSSS (a characterized survey that `re-discovered' the IOC object Sedna) gives, for an assumed a power-law LF for IOC objects, a slope of $α\simeq 0.7 \pm 0.2$, with only two detections in this region this slope estimate is highly uncertain.

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arXiv2013

Limits on Quaoar's Atmosphere

Here we present high cadence photometry taken by the Acquisition Camera on Gemini South, of a close passage by the $\sim540$ km radius Kuiper Belt Object, (50000) Quaoar, of a r'=20.2 background star. Observations before and after the event show that the apparent impact parameter of the event was $0.019\pm0.004$", corresponding to a close approach of $580\pm120$ km to the centre of Quaoar. No signatures of occultation by either Quaoar's limb or its potential atmosphere are detectable in the relative photometry of Quaoar and the target star, which were unresolved during closest approach. From this photometry we are able to put constraints on any potential atmosphere Quaoar might have. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo and likelihood approach, we place pressure upper limits on sublimation supported, isothermal atmospheres of pure N$_2$, CO, and CH$_4$. For N$_2$ and CO, the upper limit surface pressures are 1 and 0.7 $μ{bar}$ respectively. The surface temperature required for such low sublimation pressures is $\sim33$ K, much lower than Quaoar's mean temperature of $\sim44$ K measured by others. We conclude that Quaoar cannot have an isothermal N$_2$ or CO atmosphere. We cannot eliminate the possibility of a CH$_4$ atmosphere, but place upper surface pressure and mean temperature limits of $\sim138$ nbar and $\sim44$ K respectively.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2013

Kuiper Belt Occultation Predictions

Here we present observations of 7 large Kuiper Belt Objects. From these observations, we extract a point source catalog with $\sim0.01"$ precision, and astrometry of our target Kuiper Belt Objects with $0.04-0.08"$ precision within that catalog. We have developed a new technique to predict the future occurrence of stellar occultations by Kuiper Belt Objects. The technique makes use of a maximum likelihood approach which determines the best-fit adjustment to cataloged orbital elements of an object. Using simulations of a theoretical object, we discuss the merits and weaknesses of this technique compared to the commonly adopted ephemeris offset approach. We demonstrate that both methods suffer from separate weaknesses, and thus, together provide a fair assessment of the true uncertainty in a particular prediction. We present occultation predictions made by both methods for the 7 tracked objects, with dates as late as 2015. Finally, we discuss observations of three separate close passages of Quaoar to field stars, which reveal the accuracy of the element adjustment approach, and which also demonstrate the necessity of considering the uncertainty in stellar position when assessing potential occultations.

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