Stephen Lee — Page 2

arXiv2017

Making Contextual Decisions with Low Technical Debt

Applications and systems are constantly faced with decisions that require picking from a set of actions based on contextual information. Reinforcement-based learning algorithms such as contextual bandits can be very effective in these settings, but applying them in practice is fraught with technical debt, and no general system exists that supports them completely. We address this and create the first general system for contextual learning, called the Decision Service. Existing systems often suffer from technical debt that arises from issues like incorrect data collection and weak debuggability, issues we systematically address through our ML methodology and system abstractions. The Decision Service enables all aspects of contextual bandit learning using four system abstractions which connect together in a loop: explore (the decision space), log, learn, and deploy. Notably, our new explore and log abstractions ensure the system produces correct, unbiased data, which our learner uses for online learning and to enable real-time safeguards, all in a fully reproducible manner. The Decision Service has a simple user interface and works with a variety of applications: we present two live production deployments for content recommendation that achieved click-through improvements of 25-30%, another with 18% revenue lift in the landing page, and ongoing applications in tech support and machine failure handling. The service makes real-time decisions and learns continuously and scalably, while significantly lowering technical debt.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2007

Nonparametric Conditional Inference for Regression Coefficients with Application to Configural Polysampling

We consider inference procedures, conditional on an observed ancillary statistic, for regression coefficients under a linear regression setup where the unknown error distribution is specified nonparametrically. We establish conditional asymptotic normality of the regression coefficient estimators under regularity conditions, and formally justify the approach of plugging in kernel-type density estimators in conditional inference procedures. Simulation results show that the approach yields accurate conditional coverage probabilities when used for constructing confidence intervals. The plug-in approach can be applied in conjunction with configural polysampling to derive robust conditional estimators adaptive to a confrontation of contrasting scenarios. We demonstrate this by investigating the conditional mean squared error of location estimators under various confrontations in a simulation study, which successfully extends configural polysampling to a nonparametric context.

stat.ME↗