arXiv subjects

Stephen P. Boyd

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen P. Boyd.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Simple Dynamic Stock/Bond/Gold Portfolios

For more than four decades, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has served as a benchmark for delivering reasonable returns without excessive risk. More recently, a 50/30/20 stock/bond/alternative portfolio has been suggested. We use gold as the alternative and as an inflation hedge. In this paper we ask: how much improvement over these benchmark fixed-weight portfolios can be obtained using widely available public data and standard methods from quantitative finance? We restrict ourselves to long-only dynamic portfolios of stocks, bonds, and gold, plus cash, rebalancing monthly, using only publicly available data. We evaluate portfolios on the conventional metrics: return, volatility, Sharpe ratio (computed in excess of the federal funds rate), drawdown, and turnover, in addition to consistency of performance over time, judged by the consistency of the realized annual volatility. Over the 20--year period 2006--2026, using a conservative estimate of trading costs, we show that all risk-adjusted and drawdown metrics are improved using simple volatility control, where we dynamically mix the fixed-weight portfolios with cash so as to target a fixed volatility. This method relies on a simple estimate of portfolio volatility derived from past returns. We also demonstrate that more sophisticated portfolios based on convex optimization---similar to those used in quantitative hedge funds---yield further substantial improvement in return and risk-adjusted return. We consider two such portfolios, one that uses a simple estimate of future returns based on past returns, and one that forecasts future returns based on past returns and just a handful of widely available public economic data. These portfolios also outperform a suite of standard risk-based allocation methods, such as risk parity and minimum variance, evaluated on the same assets and data.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2026

Enhancing a Risk Model by Adding Transient Statistical Factors

Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two components: the first attributed to a small number of factors that are common among the assets and the second attributed to the idiosyncratic behavior of each asset. Third-party providers typically provide risk models to investors, and while these models are typically of high quality, they may fail to capture important information, e.g., changing market regimes and transient factors. To overcome these limitations, we propose a systematic method based on maximum likelihood estimation to enhance an existing factor model by both refining the given model and adding new statistical factors. Our approach relies only on the observed sequence of realized returns and on the choice of two hyperparameters: the number of additional factors and the half-life parameter that determines the weights assigned to returns in the log-likelihood objective. Importantly, our methodology applies to the situation where asset returns may be missing, making it suitable for typical equity datasets. We demonstrate our approach on the Barra short-term US risk model, a high-quality risk model used in practice, for a universe of US high-capitalization equities. We show that the proposed extension captures structure in the returns that is missed by the original model.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Sliced Distribution Matching based on Cumulative Distribution Functions with Applications to Control

Computing the similarity between two probability distributions is a recurring theme across control. We introduce a unified family of distances between the probability distributions of two random variables that is based on the discrepancy between the cumulative distribution functions of random linear one-dimensional projections of the random variables. Our proposed distance is interpretable, computationally simple, and admits a differentiable approximation. We establish asymptotic theoretical guarantees for sample-based estimators of the distance. We empirically study the use of the distance in a two-sample test and demonstrate its ability to distinguish different distributions. Finally, we show that the distance allows for simple gradient-based solutions in control by studying distribution steering and ergodic control.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Resource Allocation under Stochastic Demands using Shrinking Horizon Optimization

We consider the problem of optimally allocating a limited number of resources across time to maximize revenue under stochastic demands. This formulation is relevant in various areas of control, such as supply chain, ticket revenue maximization, healthcare operations, and energy allocation in power grids. We propose a bisection method to solve the static optimization problem and extend our approach to a shrinking horizon algorithm for the sequential problem. The shrinking horizon algorithm computes future allocations after updating the distribution of future demands by conditioning on the observed values of demand. We illustrate the method on a simple synthetic example with jointly log-normal demands, showing that it achieves performance close to a bound obtained by solving the prescient problem.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Optimization Algorithm Design via Electric Circuits

We present a novel methodology for convex optimization algorithm design using ideas from electric RLC circuits. Given an optimization problem, the first stage of the methodology is to design an appropriate electric circuit whose continuous-time dynamics converge to the solution of the optimization problem at hand. Then, the second stage is an automated, computer-assisted discretization of the continuous-time dynamics, yielding a provably convergent discrete-time algorithm. Our methodology recovers many classical (distributed) optimization algorithms and enables users to quickly design and explore a wide range of new algorithms with convergence guarantees.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

PV Fleet Modeling via Smooth Periodic Gaussian Copula

We present a method for jointly modeling power generation from a fleet of photovoltaic (PV) systems. We propose a white-box method that finds a function that invertibly maps vector time-series data to independent and identically distributed standard normal variables. The proposed method, based on a novel approach for fitting a smooth, periodic copula transform to data, captures many aspects of the data such as diurnal variation in the distribution of power output, dependencies among different PV systems, and dependencies across time. It consists of interpretable steps and is scalable to many systems. The resulting joint probability model of PV fleet output across systems and time can be used to generate synthetic data, impute missing data, perform anomaly detection, and make forecasts. In this paper, we explain the method and demonstrate these applications.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Signal Decomposition Using Masked Proximal Operators

We consider the well-studied problem of decomposing a vector time series signal into components with different characteristics, such as smooth, periodic, nonnegative, or sparse. We describe a simple and general framework in which the components are defined by loss functions (which include constraints), and the signal decomposition is carried out by minimizing the sum of losses of the components (subject to the constraints). When each loss function is the negative log-likelihood of a density for the signal component, this framework coincides with maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation; but it also includes many other interesting cases. Summarizing and clarifying prior results, we give two distributed optimization methods for computing the decomposition, which find the optimal decomposition when the component class loss functions are convex, and are good heuristics when they are not. Both methods require only the masked proximal operator of each of the component loss functions, a generalization of the well-known proximal operator that handles missing entries in its argument. Both methods are distributed, i.e., handle each component separately. We derive tractable methods for evaluating the masked proximal operators of some loss functions that, to our knowledge, have not appeared in the literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Model-Based Deep Learning: On the Intersection of Deep Learning and Optimization

Decision making algorithms are used in a multitude of different applications. Conventional approaches for designing decision algorithms employ principled and simplified modelling, based on which one can determine decisions via tractable optimization. More recently, deep learning approaches that use highly parametric architectures tuned from data without relying on mathematical models, are becoming increasingly popular. Model-based optimization and data-centric deep learning are often considered to be distinct disciplines. Here, we characterize them as edges of a continuous spectrum varying in specificity and parameterization, and provide a tutorial-style presentation to the methodologies lying in the middle ground of this spectrum, referred to as model-based deep learning. We accompany our presentation with running examples in super-resolution and stochastic control, and show how they are expressed using the provided characterization and specialized in each of the detailed methodologies. The gains of combining model-based optimization and deep learning are demonstrated using experimental results in various applications, ranging from biomedical imaging to digital communications.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2015

Adaptive Importance Sampling via Stochastic Convex Programming

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that simultaneously improves the choice of sampling distribution while accumulating a Monte Carlo estimate. Exploiting convexity, we prove that the method's unbiased estimator has variance that is asymptotically optimal over the exponential family.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Linear models based on noisy data and the Frisch scheme

We address the problem of identifying linear relations among variables based on noisy measurements. This is, of course, a central question in problems involving "Big Data." Often a key assumption is that measurement errors in each variable are independent. This precise formulation has its roots in the work of Charles Spearman in 1904 and of Ragnar Frisch in the 1930's. Various topics such as errors-in-variables, factor analysis, and instrumental variables, all refer to alternative formulations of the problem of how to account for the anticipated way that noise enters in the data. In the present paper we begin by describing the basic theory and provide alternative modern proofs to some key results. We then go on to consider certain generalizations of the theory as well applying certain novel numerical techniques to the problem. A central role is played by the Frisch-Kalman dictum which aims at a noise contribution that allows a maximal set of simultaneous linear relations among the noise-free variables --a rank minimization problem. In the years since Frisch's original formulation, there have been several insights including trace minimization as a convenient heuristic to replace rank minimization. We discuss convex relaxations and certificates guaranteeing global optimality. A complementary point of view to the Frisch-Kalman dictum is introduced in which models lead to a min-max quadratic estimation error for the error-free variables. Points of contact between the two formalisms are discussed and various alternative regularization schemes are indicated.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2007

Enhancing Sparsity by Reweighted L1 Minimization

It is now well understood that (1) it is possible to reconstruct sparse signals exactly from what appear to be highly incomplete sets of linear measurements and (2) that this can be done by constrained L1 minimization. In this paper, we study a novel method for sparse signal recovery that in many situations outperforms L1 minimization in the sense that substantially fewer measurements are needed for exact recovery. The algorithm consists of solving a sequence of weighted L1-minimization problems where the weights used for the next iteration are computed from the value of the current solution. We present a series of experiments demonstrating the remarkable performance and broad applicability of this algorithm in the areas of sparse signal recovery, statistical estimation, error correction and image processing. Interestingly, superior gains are also achieved when our method is applied to recover signals with assumed near-sparsity in overcomplete representations--not by reweighting the L1 norm of the coefficient sequence as is common, but by reweighting the L1 norm of the transformed object. An immediate consequence is the possibility of highly efficient data acquisition protocols by improving on a technique known as compressed sensing.

stat.ME↗