arXiv subjects

Stephen R. Taylor

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen R. Taylor.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set

When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than $(1.65\pm0.02) \times 10^9~{M_\odot}$ using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind' pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Pulsar timing array signals induced by black hole binaries in relativistic eccentric orbits

Individual supermassive black hole binaries in non-circular orbits are possible nanohertz gravitational wave sources for the rapidly maturing Pulsar Timing Array experiments. We develop an accurate and efficient approach to compute Pulsar Timing Array signals due to gravitational waves from inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries in relativistic eccentric orbits. Our approach employs a Keplerian-type parametric solution to model third post-Newtonian accurate precessing eccentric orbits while a novel semi-analytic prescription is provided to model the effects of quadrupolar order gravitational wave emission. These inputs lead to a semi-analytic prescription to model such signals, induced by non-spinning black hole binaries inspiralling along arbitrary eccentricity orbits. Additionally, we provide a fully analytic prescription to model Pulsar Timing Array signals from black hole binaries inspiraling along moderately eccentric orbits, influenced by Boetzelet al.[Phys. Rev. D 96,044011(2017)]. These approaches are being incorporated into Enterprise and TEMPO2 for searching the presence of such binaries in Pulsar Timing Array datasets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2019

Catching Gravitational Waves With A Galaxy-sized Net Of Pulsars

Until recently, the only way to observe the Universe was from light received by telescopes. But we are now able to measure gravitational waves, which are ripples in the fabric of the Universe predicted by Albert Einstein. If two very dense objects (like black holes) orbit each other closely, they warp space and send out gravitational waves. For black holes that are similar in mass to the Sun, scientists use the LIGO detector on Earth. But for the biggest black holes in the Universe (billions of times more massive than the Sun), scientists monitor a net of rapidly-spinning neutron stars (called pulsars) across the Milky Way. Any gravitational wave passing by will change how long radio signals from these pulsars take to get to Earth. The NANOGrav Collaboration monitored 34 of these pulsars over 11 years, in an attempt to detect gravitational waves from giant black holes.

physics.pop-ph↗

arXiv2019

The Astrophysics of Nanohertz Gravitational Waves

Pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations in North America, Australia, and Europe, have been exploiting the exquisite timing precision of millisecond pulsars over decades of observations to search for correlated timing deviations induced by gravitational waves (GWs). PTAs are sensitive to the frequency band ranging just below 1 nanohertz to a few tens of microhertz. The discovery space of this band is potentially rich with populations of inspiraling supermassive black-holes binaries, decaying cosmic string networks, relic post-inflation GWs, and even non-GW imprints of axionic dark matter. This article aims to provide an understanding of the exciting open science questions in cosmology, galaxy evolution, and fundamental physics that will be addressed by the detection and study of GWs through PTAs. The focus of the article is on providing an understanding of the mechanisms by which PTAs can address specific questions in these fields, and to outline some of the subtleties and difficulties in each case. The material included is weighted most heavily towards the questions which we expect will be answered in the near-term with PTAs; however, we have made efforts to include most currently anticipated applications of nanohertz GWs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian cross validation for gravitational-wave searches in pulsar-timing array data

Gravitational-wave data analysis demands sophisticated statistical noise models in a bid to extract highly obscured signals from data. In Bayesian model comparison, we choose among a landscape of models by comparing their marginal likelihoods. However, this computation is numerically fraught and can be sensitive to arbitrary choices in the specification of parameter priors. In Bayesian cross validation, we characterize the fit and predictive power of a model by computing the Bayesian posterior of its parameters in a training dataset, and then use that posterior to compute the averaged likelihood of a different testing dataset. The resulting cross-validation scores are straightforward to compute; they are insensitive to prior tuning; and they penalize unnecessarily complex models that overfit the training data at the expense of predictive performance. In this article, we discuss cross validation in the context of pulsar-timing-array data analysis, and we exemplify its application to simulated pulsar data (where it successfully selects the correct spectral index of a stochastic gravitational-wave background), and to a pulsar dataset from the NANOGrav 11-year release (where it convincingly favors a model that represents a transient feature in the interstellar medium). We argue that cross validation offers a promising alternative to Bayesian model comparison, and we discuss its use for gravitational-wave detection, by selecting or refuting models that include a gravitational-wave component.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Constraining alternative polarization states of gravitational waves from individual black hole binaries using pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar timing arrays are sensitive to gravitational wave perturbations produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries during their early inspiral phase. Modified gravity theories allow for the emission of gravitational dipole radiation, which is enhanced relative to the quadrupole contribution for low orbital velocities, making the early inspiral an ideal regime to test for the presence of modified gravity effects. Using a theory-agnostic description of modified gravity theories based on the parametrized post-Einsteinian framework, we explore the possibility of detecting deviations from General Relativity using simulated pulsar timing array data, and provide forecasts for the constraints that can be achieved. We generalize the {\tt enterprise} pulsar timing software to account for possible additional polarization states and modifications to the phase evolution, and study how accurately the parameters of simulated signals can be recovered. We find that while a pure dipole model can partially recover a pure quadrupole signal, there is little possibility for confusion when the full model with all polarization states is used. With no signal present, and using noise levels comparable to those seen in contemporary arrays, we produce forecasts for the upper limits that can be placed on the amplitudes of alternative polarization modes as a function of the sky location of the source.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2019

Supermassive Black-hole Demographics & Environments With Pulsar Timing Arrays

Precision timing of large arrays (>50) of millisecond pulsars will detect the nanohertz gravitational-wave emission from supermassive binary black holes within the next ~3-7 years. We review the scientific opportunities of these detections, the requirements for success, and the synergies with electromagnetic instruments operating in the 2020s.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Mining Gravitational-wave Catalogs To Understand Binary Stellar Evolution: A New Hierarchical Bayesian Framework

Catalogs of stellar-mass compact binary systems detected by ground-based gravitational-wave instruments (such as Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo) will offer insights into the demographics of progenitor systems and the physics guiding stellar evolution. Existing techniques approach this through phenomenological modeling, discrete model selection, or model mixtures. Instead, we explore a novel technique that mines gravitational-wave catalogs to directly infer posterior probability distributions of the hyper-parameters describing formation and evolutionary scenarios (e.g. progenitor metallicity, kick parameters, and common-envelope efficiency). We use a bank of compact-binary population synthesis simulations to train a Gaussian-process emulator that acts as a prior on observed parameter distributions (e.g. chirp mass, redshift, rate). This emulator slots into a hierarchical population inference framework to extract the underlying astrophysical origins of systems detected by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. Our method is fast, easily expanded with additional simulations, and can be adapted for training on arbitrary population synthesis codes, as well as different detectors like LISA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Noise-marginalized optimal statistic: A robust hybrid frequentist-Bayesian statistic for the stochastic gravitational-wave background in pulsar timing arrays

Observations have revealed that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at their centers. When galaxies merge, these SMBHs form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs) that emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). The incoherent superposition of these sources produce a stochastic GW background (GWB) that can be observed by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). The optimal statistic is a frequentist estimator of the amplitude of the GWB that specifically looks for the spatial correlations between pulsars induced by the GWB. In this paper, we introduce an improved method for computing the optimal statistic that marginalizes over the red noise in individual pulsars. We use simulations to demonstrate that this method more accurately determines the strength of the GWB, and we use the noise-marginalized optimal statistic to compare the significance of monopole, dipole, and Hellings-Downs (HD) spatial correlations and perform sky scrambles.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2018

The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: High-precision timing of 45 Millisecond Pulsars

We present high-precision timing data over time spans of up to 11 years for 45 millisecond pulsars observed as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project, aimed at detecting and characterizing low-frequency gravitational waves. The pulsars were observed with the Arecibo Observatory and/or the Green Bank Telescope at frequencies ranging from 327 MHz to 2.3 GHz. Most pulsars were observed with approximately monthly cadence, with six high--timing-precision pulsars observed weekly, and all were observed at widely separated frequencies at each observing epoch in order to fit for time-variable dispersion delays. We describe our methods for data processing, time-of-arrival (TOA) calculation, and the implementation of a new, automated method for removing outlier TOAs. We fit a timing model for each pulsar that includes spin, astrometric, and, if necessary, binary parameters, in addition to time-variable dispersion delays and parameters that quantify pulse-profile evolution with frequency. The new timing solutions provide three new parallax measurements, two new Shapiro delay measurements, and two new measurements of large orbital-period variations. We fit models that characterize sources of noise for each pulsar. We find that 11 pulsars show significant red noise, with generally smaller spectral indices than typically measured for non-recycled pulsars, possibly suggesting a different origin. Future papers will use these data to constrain or detect the signatures of gravitational-wave signals.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Constraining alternative theories of gravity using pulsar timing arrays

The opening of the gravitational wave window by ground-based laser interferometers has made possible many new tests of gravity, including the first constraints on polarization. It is hoped that within the next decade pulsar timing will extend the window by making the first detections in the nano-Hertz frequency regime. Pulsar timing offers several advantages over ground-based interferometers for constraining the polarization of gravitational waves due to the many projections of the polarization pattern provided by the different lines of sight to the pulsars, and the enhanced response to longitudinal polarizations. Here we show that existing results from pulsar timing arrays can be used to place stringent limits on the energy density of longitudinal stochastic gravitational waves. Paradoxically however, we find that longitudinal modes will be very difficult to detect due to the large variance in the pulsar-pulsar correlation patterns for these modes. Existing upper limits on the power spectrum of pulsar timing residuals imply that the amplitude of vector longitudinal and scalar longitudinal modes at frequencies of 1/year are constrained: ${\cal A}_{\rm VL} < 4.1\times 10^{-16}$ and ${\cal A}_{\rm SL} < 3.7\times 10^{-17}$, while the bounds on the energy density for a scale invariant cosmological background are: $Ω_{\rm VL}h^2 < 3.5 \times 10^{-11}$ and $Ω_{\rm SL}h^2 < 3.2 \times 10^{-13}$.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2017

Single Sources in the Low-Frequency Gravitational Wave Sky: properties and time to detection by pulsar timing arrays

We calculate the properties, occurrence rates and detection prospects of individually resolvable 'single sources' in the low frequency gravitational wave (GW) spectrum. Our simulations use the population of galaxies and massive black hole binaries from the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulations, coupled to comprehensive semi-analytic models of the binary merger process. Using mock pulsar timing arrays (PTA) with, for the first time, varying red-noise models, we calculate plausible detection prospects for GW single sources and the stochastic GW background (GWB). Contrary to previous results, we find that single sources are at least as detectable as the GW background. Using mock PTA, we find that these 'foreground' sources (also 'deterministic'/'continuous') are likely to be detected with $\sim 20 \, \textrm{yr}$ total observing baselines. Detection prospects, and indeed the overall properties of single sources, are only moderately sensitive to binary evolution parameters---namely eccentricity & environmental coupling, which can lead to differences of $\sim 5 \,\textrm{yr}$ in times to detection. Red noise has a stronger effect, roughly doubling the time to detection of the foreground between a white-noise only model ($\sim 10$ - $15 \, \textrm{yr}$) and severe red noise ($\sim 20$ - $30 \, \textrm{yr}$). The effect of red noise on the GWB is even stronger, suggesting that single source detections may be more robust. We find that typical signal-to-noise ratios for the foreground peak near $f = 0.1 \, \textrm{yr}^{-1}$, and are much less sensitive to the continued addition of new pulsars to PTA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

The Local Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Landscape From Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the 10 million to 10 billion $M_\odot$ range form in galaxy mergers, and live in galactic nuclei with large and poorly constrained concentrations of gas and stars. There are currently no observations of merging SMBHBs--- it is in fact possible that they stall at their final parsec of separation and never merge. While LIGO has detected high frequency GWs, SMBHBs emit GWs in the nanohertz to millihertz band. This is inaccessible to ground-based interferometers, but possible with Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). Using data from local galaxies in the 2 Micron All-Sky Survey, together with galaxy merger rates from Illustris, we find that there are on average $91\pm7$ sources emitting GWs in the PTA band, and $7\pm2$ binaries which will never merge. Local unresolved SMBHBs can contribute to GW background anisotropy at a level of $\sim20\%$, and if the GW background can be successfully isolated, GWs from at least one local SMBHB can be detected in 10 years.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Hole Binaries in Illustris: spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTA) around the world are using the incredible consistency of millisecond pulsars to measure low frequency gravitational waves from (super)Massive Black Hole (MBH) binaries. We use comprehensive MBH merger models based on cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to predict the spectrum of the stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background (GWB). We use real Time-of-Arrival (TOA) specifications from the European, NANOGrav, Parkes, and International PTA (IPTA) to calculate realistic times to detection of the GWB across a wide range of model parameters. In addition to exploring the parameter space of environmental hardening processes (in particular: stellar scattering efficiencies), we have expanded our models to include eccentric binary evolution which can have a strong effect on the GWB spectrum. Our models show that strong stellar scattering and high characteristic eccentricities enhance the GWB strain amplitude near the PTA sensitive "sweet-spot" (near the frequency $f = 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$), slightly improving detection prospects in these cases. While the GWB $amplitude$ is degenerate between cosmological and environmental parameters, the location of a spectral turnover at low frequencies ($f \lesssim 0.1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$) is strongly indicative of environmental coupling. At high frequencies ($f\gtrsim 1 \, \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$), the GWB spectral index can be used to infer the number density of sources and possibly their eccentricity distribution. Even with merger models that use pessimistic environmental and eccentricity parameters, if the current rate of PTA expansion continues, we find that the International PTA is highly likely to make a detection within about 10 years.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Constraints On The Dynamical Environments Of Supermassive Black-hole Binaries Using Pulsar-timing Arrays

We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on astrophysical parameters. For PTAs specifically, we interpolate over the parameter space of supermassive black-hole binary environments, including 3-body stellar scattering, and evolving orbital eccentricity. We illustrate our approach on mock data, and assess the prospects for inference with data similar to the NANOGrav 9-yr data release.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2015

European Pulsar Timing Array Limits on Continuous Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

We have searched for continuous gravitational wave (CGW) signals produced by individually resolvable, circular supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the latest EPTA dataset, which consists of ultra-precise timing data on 41 millisecond pulsars. We develop frequentist and Bayesian detection algorithms to search both for monochromatic and frequency-evolving systems. None of the adopted algorithms show evidence for the presence of such a CGW signal, indicating that the data are best described by pulsar and radiometer noise only. Depending on the adopted detection algorithm, the 95\% upper limit on the sky-averaged strain amplitude lies in the range $6\times 10^{-15} 10^9$M$_\odot$ out to a distance of about 25Mpc, and with $\cal{M}_c>10^{10}$M$_\odot$ out to a distance of about 1Gpc ($z\approx0.2$). We show that state-of-the-art SMBHB population models predict $<1\%$ probability of detecting a CGW with the current EPTA dataset, consistent with the reported non-detection. We stress, however, that PTA limits on individual CGW have improved by almost an order of magnitude in the last five years. The continuing advances in pulsar timing data acquisition and analysis techniques will allow for strong astrophysical constraints on the population of nearby SMBHBs in the coming years.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

Detection of eccentric supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: Signal-to-noise ratio calculations

We present a detailed analysis of the expected signal-to-noise ratios of supermassive black hole binaries on eccentric orbits observed by pulsar timing arrays. We derive several analytical relations that extend the results of Peters and Mathews [Phys. Rev. D 131, 435 (1963)] to quantify the impact of eccentricity in the detection of single resolvable binaries in the pulsar timing array band. We present ready-to-use expressions to compute the increase/loss in signal-to-noise ratio of eccentric single resolvable sources whose dominant harmonic is located in the low/high frequency sensitivity regime of pulsar timing arrays. Building upon the work of Phinney (arXiv:astro-ph/0108028) and Enoki and Nagashima [Prog. Theor. Phys. 117, 241 (2007)], we present an analytical framework that enables the construction of rapid spectra for a stochastic gravitational-wave background generated by a cosmological population of eccentric sources. We confirm previous findings which indicate that, relative to a population of quasicircular binaries, the strain of a stochastic, isotropic gravitational-wave background generated by a cosmological population of eccentric binaries will be suppressed in the frequency band of pulsar timing arrays. We quantify this effect in terms of signal-to-noise ratios in a pulsar timing array.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2015

European Pulsar Timing Array Limits On An Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

We present new limits on an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) using a six pulsar dataset spanning 18 yr of observations from the 2015 European Pulsar Timing Array data release. Performing a Bayesian analysis, we fit simultaneously for the intrinsic noise parameters for each pulsar, along with common correlated signals including clock, and Solar System ephemeris errors, obtaining a robust 95$\%$ upper limit on the dimensionless strain amplitude $A$ of the background of $A<3.0\times 10^{-15}$ at a reference frequency of $1\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ and a spectral index of $13/3$, corresponding to a background from inspiralling super-massive black hole binaries, constraining the GW energy density to $Ω_\mathrm{gw}(f)h^2 < 1.1\times10^{-9}$ at 2.8 nHz. We also present limits on the correlated power spectrum at a series of discrete frequencies, and show that our sensitivity to a fiducial isotropic GWB is highest at a frequency of $\sim 5\times10^{-9}$~Hz. Finally we discuss the implications of our analysis for the astrophysics of supermassive black hole binaries, and present 95$\%$ upper limits on the string tension, $Gμ/c^2$, characterising a background produced by a cosmic string network for a set of possible scenarios, and for a stochastic relic GWB. For a Nambu-Goto field theory cosmic string network, we set a limit $Gμ/c^2<1.3\times10^{-7}$, identical to that set by the {\it Planck} Collaboration, when combining {\it Planck} and high-$\ell$ Cosmic Microwave Background data from other experiments. For a stochastic relic background we set a limit of $Ω^\mathrm{relic}_\mathrm{gw}(f)h^2<1.2 \times10^{-9}$, a factor of 9 improvement over the most stringent limits previously set by a pulsar timing array.

astro-ph.CO↗