arXiv subjects

Stephen Wilkins

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen Wilkins.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Near-infrared emission line diagnostics for AGN from the local Universe to redshift 3

Optical rest-frame spectroscopic diagnostics are usually employed to distinguish between star formation and AGN-powered emission. However, this method is biased against dusty sources, hampering a complete census of the AGN population across cosmic epochs. To mitigate this effect, it is crucial to observe at longer wavelengths in the rest-frame near-infrared (near-IR), which is less affected by dust attenuation and can thus provide a better description of the intrinsic properties of galaxies. AGN diagnostics in this regime have not been fully exploited so far, due to the scarcity of near-IR observations of both AGNs and star-forming galaxies, especially at redshifts higher than 0.5. Using Cloudy photoionization models, we identify new AGN - star formation diagnostics based on the ratio of bright near-infrared emission lines, namely [SIII] 9530 Angstrom, [CI] 9850 Angstrom, [PII] 1.188 $μm$, [FeII] $1.257 μm$, and [FeII] $1.64 μm$ to Paschen lines (either Pa$γ$ or Pa$β$), providing simple, analytical classification criteria. We apply these diagnostics to a sample of 64 star-forming galaxies and AGNs at 0 < z < 1, and 65 sources at 1 < z < 3 recently observed with JWST-NIRSpec in CEERS. We find that the classification inferred from the near-infrared is broadly consistent with the optical one based on the BPT and the [SII]/H$α$ ratio. However, in the near-infrared, we find $\sim 60 \%$ more AGNs than in the optical (13 instead of 8), with 5 sources classified as 'hidden' AGNs, showing a larger AGN contribution at longer wavelengths, possibly due to the presence of optically thick dust. The diagnostics we present provide a promising tool to find and characterize AGNs from z=0 to z=3 with low and medium-resolution near-IR spectrographs in future surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Mysteries of Capotauro: investigating the puzzling nature of an extreme F356W-dropout

JWST has uncovered a diverse population of extreme near-infrared dropouts, including ultra high-redshift ($z>15$) galaxy candidates, dust-obscured galaxies challenging dust production theories, sources with strong Balmer breaks - possibly compact AGN in dense environments - and cold, sub-stellar Galactic objects. This work presents Capotauro, a F356W-dropout in the CEERS survey with F444W AB magnitude of $\sim27.68$ and a sharp $>3$ mag flux drop between $3.5{-}4.5\,μ$m, undetected below $3.5\,μ$m. We combine JWST/NIRCam, MIRI, and NIRSpec/MSA data with HST/ACS and WFC3 observations to perform a spectro-photometric analysis of Capotauro using multiple SED-fitting codes. Our setup tests $z\geq15$ as well as $z<10$ dusty, Balmer-break or strong-line galaxy solutions, and the possibility of Capotauro being a Milky Way sub-stellar object. Among extragalactic options, our analysis favors interpreting the sharp drop as a Lyman break at $z\sim32$, consistent with the epoch of formation of the first stars and black holes, with only $\sim0.5\%$ of the posterior volume at $z<25$. Lower-redshift solutions struggle to reproduce the extreme break, suggesting that if Capotauro lies at $z<10$, it must show a non-standard combination of strong dust attenuation and/or Balmer breaks, making it a peculiar interloper. Alternatively, its properties match a very cold (Y2-Y3 type) brown dwarf or a free-floating exoplanet with a record-breaking combination of low temperature and large distance ($T_{\mathrm{eff}}<300\,\mathrm{K}$, $d\gtrsim130\,\mathrm{pc}$, up to $\sim2\,\mathrm{kpc}$). While current data cannot determine its nature, Capotauro emerges as a remarkably unique object in all plausible scenarios, and a compelling target for follow-up.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

An almost NIRCam-dark dusty star-forming galaxy at z=6.63

We present AC-2168, an almost NIRCam-dark, millimetre-bright galaxy in the COSMOS field. The source was identified blindly in ALMA Band-4 continuum data and remains undetected in the COSMOS-Web DR1 NIRCam catalogue. We spectroscopically confirm a redshift of $z_{\rm spec}=6.631$ from [CII] 158 $\mu$m and four tentatively detected CO lines in NOEMA and ALMA data. SED fitting to near-IR to millimetre photometry yields $\rm L_{IR}=1.6\times10^{12}\,L_\odot$, an SFR of $\rm 244\,M_\odot/yr$, heavy dust attenuation $\rm A_V=5.4$ mag, and a stellar mass $\rm M_\star=3.7\times10^{10}\,M_\odot$. From the millimetre continuum and [CII] emission, we infer a warm ISM with $\rm T_{\rm dust}=60K$, $\rm M_{dust}=3.0\times10^{8}\,M_\odot$ and $\rm M_{gas}=4.1\times10^{10}\,M_\odot$. AC-2168 has a gas fraction ($f_{\rm gas}=M_{\rm gas}/(M_\star+M_{\rm gas})$) of $\sim52\%$, a short depletion time of $\rm \sim170Myr$, a compact ($\rm \sim1kpc$) dust-continuum size, and an SFR consistent with the star-forming main sequence at its mass. These properties match expectations for progenitors of massive quiescent galaxies at the peak of their assembly, as implied by NIRSpec-based SFHs of $z\sim4-5$ systems. Using the blind detection, we estimate a space density of $\rm 7.8^{+18.0}_{-6.5}\times10^{-6}\,cMpc^{-3}$ for AC-2168-like NIRCam-dark galaxies at $z\sim6-7$, $\sim42\%$ of the abundance of massive quiescent galaxies at $z\sim4-5$. No overdensity of Ly$\alpha$ emitters or Lyman-break galaxies is found nearby, suggesting AC-2168 does not lie in a prominent protocluster and highlighting the importance of unbiased blind surveys for this population.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Synthesizer: Synthetic Observables For Modern Astronomy

Synthesizer is a fast, flexible, modular, and extensible Python package that empowers astronomers to turn theoretical galaxy models into realistic synthetic observations - including spectra, photometry, images, and spectral cubes - with a focus on interchangeable modelling assumptions. By offloading computationally intensive tasks to threaded C++ extensions, Synthesizer delivers both simplicity and speed, enabling rapid forward-modelling workflows without requiring users to manage low-level data processing and computational details.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Compact dust-obscured star-formation and the origin of the galaxy bimodality

During the last decade, studies about highly attenuated and massive red star-forming galaxies (RedSFGs) at $z \sim 4$ have suggested that they could constitute a crucial population for unraveling the mechanisms driving the transition from vigorous star formation to quiescence at high redshifts. Since such a transition seems to be linked to a morphological transformation, studying the morphological properties of these RedSFGs is essential to our understanding of galaxy evolution. To this end, we are using JWST/NIRCam images from the CEERS survey to assemble a mass-complete sample of 188 massive galaxies at $z=3-4$, for which we perform resolved-SED fit. After classifying galaxies into typical blue SFGs (BlueSFGs), RedSFGs and quiescent galaxies (QGs), we compare the morphologies of each population in terms of stellar mass density, SFR density, sSFR, dust-attenuation and mass-weighted age. We find that RedSFGs and QGs present similar stellar surface density profiles and that RedSFGs manifest a dust attenuation concentration significantly higher than that of BlueSFGs at all masses. This indicates that to become quiescent, a BlueSFG must transit through a major compaction phase once it has become sufficiently massive. At the same time, we find RedSFGs and QGs to account for more than $50\%$ of galaxies with ${\rm log}(M_\ast/M_\odot)> 10.4$ at this redshift. This transition mass corresponds to the "critical mass" delineating the bimodality between BlueSFGs and QGs in the local Universe. We then conclude that there is a bimodality between extended BlueSFGs and compact, highly attenuated RedSFGs that have undergone a major gas compaction phase enabling the latter to build a massive bulb in situ. There is evidence that this early-stage separation is at the origin of the local bimodality between BlueSFGs and QGs, which we refer to as a "primeval bimodality".

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Like a candle in the wind: The embers of once aflame, now smouldering galaxies at $5 < z < 8$

We develop a photometric search method for identifying smouldering galaxies at $5< z < 8$, which are defined to have weak emission lines and thus generally have low specific star formation rates and may even be in a state of (temporary) quiescence. The deep NIRCam imaging (${\sim}29.5$ AB mag, 5$σ$) from the JADES second data release is essential for finding these systems, as they are faint, relatively quiescent dwarf galaxies ($M_* \sim 10^{8}$-$10^9$ $\mathrm{M}_\odot)$ in the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR). Moreover, medium-band imaging is key, enabling a clear identification of the lack of emission lines in these galaxies, thus betraying their dormant flame. Owing to the young age of the Universe, combined with the likely bursty star formation in these first dwarf galaxies, conventional colour-selection methods like the UVJ diagram likely miss a large fraction of the quiescent population in the EoR. Indeed, we find that smouldering galaxies constitute a considerable fraction (0.05-0.35) of the EoR dwarf galaxy population ($M_* \sim 10^{8}$-$10^{9}$ $\mathrm{M}_\odot$). As predicted by simulations, these first dwarf galaxies are fragile, the star formation in their shallow potential wells easily snuffed out by feedback-driven winds triggered by secular or merger-driven starbursts, with the smouldering fraction increasing with decreasing stellar mass. Finally, we provide observational constraints on the smouldering galaxy comoving number density (${\sim}10^{-4}$-$10^{-5}$ dex$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-3}$), which, although hampered by incompleteness, should aid in our understanding of the primordial baryon cycle, as current simulations greatly disagree on whether these systems are rare (${\sim}1\%$) or common (${\sim}50\%$) in the EoR.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

The Complete CEERS Early Universe Galaxy Sample: A Surprisingly Slow Evolution of the Space Density of Bright Galaxies at z ~ 8.5-14.5

We present a sample of 88 candidate z~8.5-14.5 galaxies selected from the completed NIRCam imaging from the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science (CEERS) survey. These data cover ~90 arcmin^2 (10 NIRCam pointings) in six broad-band and one medium-band imaging filter. With this sample we confirm at higher confidence early JWST conclusions that bright galaxies in this epoch are more abundant than predicted by most theoretical models. We construct the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions at z~9, 11 and 14, and show that the space density of bright (M_UV=-20) galaxies changes only modestly from z~14 to z~9, compared to a steeper increase from z~8 to z~4. While our candidates are photometrically selected, spectroscopic followup has now confirmed 13 of them, with only one significant interloper, implying that the fidelity of this sample is high. Successfully explaining the evidence for a flatter evolution in the number densities of UV-bright z>10 galaxies may thus require changes to the dominant physical processes regulating star formation. While our results indicate that significant variations of dust attenuation with redshift are unlikely to be the dominant factor at these high redshifts, they are consistent with predictions from models which naturally have enhanced star-formation efficiency and/or stochasticity. An evolving stellar initial mass function could also bring model predictions into better agreement with our results. Deep spectroscopic followup of a large sample of early galaxies can distinguish between these competing scenarios.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

CEERS MIRI Imaging: Data Reduction and Quality Assessment

The Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS), targeting the Extended Groth Strip extragalactic field, is one of the JWST Director's Discretionary Early Release Science programs. To date, all observations have been executed and include NIRCam/MIRI imaging and NIRSpec/NIRCam spectroscopic exposures. Here, we discuss the MIRI imaging, which includes eight pointings, four of which provide deep imaging with the bluer bands (F560W, F770W) and four with contiguous wavelength coverage in F1000W, F1280W, F1500W, and F1800W, where two of these also include coverage in F770W and F2100W. We present a summary of the data, the data quality, and data reduction. The data reduction is based on the JWST Calibration Pipeline combined with custom modifications and additional steps designed to enhance the output quality, including improvements in astrometry and the removal of detector artifacts. We estimate the image depth of the reduced mosaics, and show that these generally agree with expectations from the Exposure Time Calculator. We compare the MIRI F560W and F770W flux densities for bright sources to measurements from Spitzer/IRAC Ch3 (5.8 $μ$m) and Ch4 (8.0 $μ$m), and we find that they agree with systematic differences of $<0.1$ mag. For the redder MIRI bands, we assess their quality by studying the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of Galactic stars. The SEDs are consistent with the expected Rayleigh-Jeans law with a deviation $\sim 0.03$ mag, indicating that the MIRI colors are reliable. We also discuss all publicly released data products (images and source catalogs), which are available on the CEERS website (https://ceers.github.io/).

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS): Multi-classing Galactic Dwarf Stars in the deep JWST/NIRCam

Low mass (sub)stellar objects represent the low end of the initial mass function, the transition to free-floating planets and a prominent interloper population in the search for high-redshift galaxies. Without proper motions or spectroscopy, can one identify these objects photometrically? JWST/NIRCam has several advantages over HST/WFC3 NIR: more filters, a greater wavelength range, and greater spatial resolution. Here, we present a catalogue of (sub)stellar dwarfs identified in the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). We identify 518 stellar objects down to $m_F200W \sim 28$ using half-light radius, a full three magnitudes deeper than typical HST/WFC3 images. A kNN nearest neighbour algorithm identifies and types these sources, using four HST/WFC3 and four NIRCam filters, trained on SpeX spectra of nearby brown dwarfs. The kNN with four neighbors classifies well within two subtypes: e.g M2$\pm$2 or T4$\pm$2, achieving $\sim$95% precision and recall. More granular typing results in worse metrics. In CEERS, we find 9 M8$\pm$2, 2 L6$\pm$2, 1 T4$\pm$2, and 15 T8$\pm$2. We compare the observed long wavelength NIRCam colours -- not used in the kNN -- to those expected for brown dwarf atmospheric models. The NIRCam F356W-F444W and F410M-F444W colours are redder by a magnitude for the type assigned by the kNN, hinting at a wider variety of atmospheres for these objects. We find a 300-350pc scale-height for M6$\pm$2 dwarfs plus a second structural component and a 150-200pc scale-height for T6$\pm$2 type dwarfs, consistent with literature values.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

To be, or not to be: Balmer breaks in high-z galaxies with JWST

Standard models of structure formation allow us to predict the cosmic timescales relevant for the onset of star formation and the assembly history of galaxies at high redshifts ($z > 10$). The strength of the Balmer break represents a well-known diagnostic of the age and star formation history of galaxies, which enables us to compare observations with contemporary simulations - thus shedding light on the predictive power of our current models of star formation in the early universe. Here, we measure the Balmer break strength for 23 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies at redshifts $6 \lesssim z \lesssim 12$ using public JWST NIRSpec data from the cycle 1 GO 1433 and GO 2282 programs (PI Coe), as well as public spectroscopic data from the JWST Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES). We find that the range of observed Balmer break strengths agree well with that of current simulations given our measurement uncertainties. No cases of anomalously strong Balmer breaks are detected, and therefore no severe departures from the predictions of contemporary models of star formation. However, there are indications that the number of outliers in the observed distribution, both in direction of strong and weak Balmer breaks, is higher than that predicted by simulations.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The BlueTides Mock Image Catalogue: Simulated observations of high-redshift galaxies and predictions for JWST imaging surveys

We present a mock image catalogue of ~100,000 MUV=-22.5 to -19.6 mag galaxies at z=7-12 from the BlueTides cosmological simulation. We create mock images of each galaxy with the James Webb (JWST), Hubble, Roman, and Euclid Space Telescopes, as well as Subaru, and VISTA, with a range of near- and mid-infrared filters. We perform photometry on the mock images to estimate the success of these instruments for detecting high-z galaxies. We predict that JWST will have unprecedented power in detecting high-z galaxies, with a 95% completeness limit at least 2.5 magnitudes fainter than VISTA and Subaru, 1.1 magnitudes fainter than Hubble, and 0.9 magnitudes fainter than Roman, for the same wavelength and exposure time. Focusing on JWST, we consider a range of exposure times and filters, and find that the NIRCam F356W and F277W filters will detect the faintest galaxies, with 95% completeness at m=27.4 mag in 10ks exposures. We also predict the number of high-z galaxies that will be discovered by upcoming JWST imaging surveys. We predict that the COSMOS-Web survey will detect ~1000 MUV<-20.1 mag galaxies at 6.5<z<7.5, by virtue of its large survey area. JADES-Medium will detect almost 100% of MUV<-20 mag galaxies at z<8.5 due to its significant depth, however with its smaller survey area it will detect only ~100 of these galaxies at 6.5<z<7.5. Cosmic variance results in a large range in the number of predicted galaxies each survey will detect, which is more evident in smaller surveys such as CEERS and the PEARLS NEP and GOODS-S fields.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Impact of Dust on the Sizes of Galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization

We study the sizes of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization using a sample of ~100,000 galaxies from the BlueTides cosmological hydrodynamical simulation from z=7 to 11. We measure the galaxy sizes from stellar mass and luminosity maps, defining the effective radius as the minimum radius which could enclose the pixels containing 50% of the total mass/light in the image. We find an inverse relationship between stellar mass and effective half-mass radius, suggesting that the most massive galaxies are more compact and dense than lower mass galaxies, which have flatter mass distributions. We find a mildly negative relation between intrinsic far-ultraviolet luminosity and size, while we find a positive size-luminosity relation when measured from dust-attenuated images. This suggests that dust is the predominant cause of the observed positive size-luminosity relation, with dust preferentially attenuating bright sight lines resulting in a flatter emission profile and thus larger measured effective radii. We study the size-luminosity relation across the rest-frame ultraviolet and optical, and find that the slope decreases at longer wavelengths; this is a consequence of the relation being caused by dust, which produces less attenuation at longer wavelengths. We find that the far-ultraviolet size-luminosity relation shows mild evolution from z=7 to 11, and galaxy size evolves with redshift as $R\propto(1+z)^{-m}$, where $m=0.662\pm0.009$. Finally, we investigate the sizes of z=7 quasar host galaxies, and find that while the intrinsic sizes of quasar hosts are small relative to the overall galaxy sample, they have comparable sizes when measured from dust-attenuated images.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2022

The Star Formation Burstiness and Ionizing Efficiency of Low-mass Galaxies

We investigate the burstiness of star formation and the ionizing efficiency of a large sample of galaxies at $0.7 < z < 1.5$ using HST grism spectroscopy and deep ultraviolet (UV) imaging in the GOODS-N and GOODS-S fields. The star formation history (SFH) in these strong emission line low-mass galaxies indicates an elevated star formation rate (SFR) based on the H$α$ emission line at a given stellar mass when compared to the standard main sequence. Moreover, when comparing the H$α$ and UV SFR indicators, we find that an excess in SFR(H$α$) compared to SFR(UV) is preferentially observed in lower-mass galaxies below $10^{9}$ M$\odot$, which are also the highest-EW galaxies. These findings suggest that the burstiness parameters of these strong emission line galaxies may differ from those inferred from hydrodynamical simulations and previous observations. For instance, a larger burstiness duty cycle would explain the observed SFR(H$α$) excess. We also estimate the ionizing photon production efficiency $ξ_{ion}$, finding a median value of Log($ξ_{ion}$/erg$^{-1}$ Hz)$=24.80 \pm 0.26$ when adopting a Galactic dust correction for H$α$ and an SMC one for the stellar component. We observe an increase of $ξ_{ion}$ with redshift, further confirming similar results at higher redshifts. We also find that $ξ_{ion}$ is strongly correlated with EW(H$α$), which provides an approach for deriving $ξ_{ion}$ in early galaxies. Lower-mass, lower-luminosity galaxies have a higher $ξ_{ion}$. Overall, these results provide further support for faint galaxies playing a major role in the reionization of the Universe.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2021

Observing the host galaxies of high-redshift quasars with JWST: predictions from the BlueTides simulation

The bright emission from high-redshift quasars completely conceals their host galaxies in the rest-frame ultraviolet/optical, with detection of the hosts in these wavelengths eluding even the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) using detailed point spread function (PSF) modelling techniques. In this study we produce mock images of a sample of z=7 quasars extracted from the BlueTides simulation, and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based PSF modelling to determine the detectability of their host galaxies with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). While no statistically significant detections are made with HST, we predict that at the same wavelengths and exposure times JWST NIRCam imaging will detect ~50% of quasar host galaxies. We investigate various observational strategies, and find that NIRCam wide-band imaging in the long-wavelength filters results in the highest fraction of successful quasar host detections, detecting >80% of the hosts of bright quasars in exposure times of 5 ks. Exposure times of ~5 ks are required to detect the majority of host galaxies in the NIRCam wide-band filters, however even 10 ks exposures with MIRI result in <30% successful host detections. We find no significant trends between galaxy properties and their detectability. The PSF modelling can accurately recover the host magnitudes, radii, and spatial distribution of the larger-scale emission, when accounting for the central core being contaminated by residual quasar flux. Care should be made when interpreting the host properties measured using PSF modelling.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

The host galaxies of z=7 quasars: predictions from the BlueTides simulation

We examine the properties of the host galaxies of $z=7$ quasars using the large volume, cosmological hydrodynamical simulation BlueTides. We find that the 10 most massive black holes and the 191 quasars in the simulation (with $M_{\textrm{UV,AGN}} 10^{6.5}M_\odot$ black hole, indicating that minor mergers play at least some role in growing black holes in the early Universe.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2020

Cosmic variance of $z>7$ galaxies: Prediction from BlueTides

In the coming decade, a new generation of telescopes, including JWST and WFIRST, will probe the period of the formation of first galaxies and quasars, and open up the last frontier for structure formation. Recent simulations as well as observations have suggested that these galaxies are strongly clustered (with large scale bias $\gtrsim6$), and therefore have significant cosmic variance. In this work, we use \texttt{BlueTides}, the largest volume cosmological simulation of galaxy formation, to directly estimate the cosmic variance for current and upcoming surveys. Given its resolution and volume, \texttt{BlueTides} can probe the bias and cosmic variance of $z>7$ galaxies between magnitude $M_{UV}\sim-16$ to $M_{UV}\sim-22$ over survey areas $\sim0.1\ \mathrm{arcmin}^2$ to $\sim 10~\mathrm{deg}^2$. Within this regime, the cosmic variance decreases with survey area/ volume as a power law with exponents between $\sim-0.25$ to $\sim-0.45$. For the planned $10~\mathrm{deg}^2$ field of WFIRST, the cosmic variance is between $3\%$ to $10\%$. Upcoming JWST medium/ deep surveys with areas up to $A\sim100\ \mathrm{arcmin}^2$ will have cosmic variance ranging from $\sim 20-50\%$. Lensed surveys have the highest cosmic variance $\gtrsim 40\%$; the cosmic variance of $M_{UV}\lesssim-16$ galaxies is $\lesssim100\%$ up to $z\sim11$. At higher redshifts such as $z\sim12~(14)$, effective volumes of $\gtrsim(8~\mathrm{Mpc}/h)^3$ ($\gtrsim(12\ \mathrm{Mpc}/h)^3$) are required to limit the cosmic variance to within $100\%$. Finally, we find that cosmic variance is larger than Poisson variance and forms the dominant component of the overall uncertainty in all current and upcoming surveys. We present our calculations in the form of simple fitting functions and an online cosmic variance calculator (CV_AT_COSMIC_DAWN) which we publicly release.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2017

Galaxy And Mass Assembly: the evolution of the cosmic spectral energy distribution from z = 1 to z = 0

We present the evolution of the Cosmic Spectral Energy Distribution (CSED) from $z = 1 - 0$. Our CSEDs originate from stacking individual spectral energy distribution fits based on panchromatic photometry from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) and COSMOS datasets in ten redshift intervals with completeness corrections applied. Below $z = 0.45$, we have credible SED fits from 100 nm to 1 mm. Due to the relatively low sensitivity of the far-infrared data, our far-infrared CSEDs contain a mix of predicted and measured fluxes above $z = 0.45$. Our results include appropriate errors to highlight the impact of these corrections. We show that the bolometric energy output of the Universe has declined by a factor of roughly four -- from $5.1 \pm 1.0$ at $z \sim 1$ to $1.3 \pm 0.3 \times 10^{35}~h_{70}$~W~Mpc$^{-3}$ at the current epoch. We show that this decrease is robust to cosmic variance, SED modelling and other various types of error. Our CSEDs are also consistent with an increase in the mean age of stellar populations. We also show that dust attenuation has decreased over the same period, with the photon escape fraction at 150~nm increasing from $16 \pm 3$ at $z \sim 1$ to $24 \pm 5$ per cent at the current epoch, equivalent to a decrease in $A_\mathrm{FUV}$ of 0.4~mag. Our CSEDs account for $68 \pm 12$ and $61 \pm 13$ per cent of the cosmic optical and infrared backgrounds respectively as defined from integrated galaxy counts and are consistent with previous estimates of the cosmic infrared background with redshift.

astro-ph.GA↗