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Steven J. Smith

Publications and source records attributed to Steven J. Smith.

2 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Will AstroForge Collapse the PGM Market?

AstroForge seeks to mine platinum group metals (PGM) from asteroids. Asteroid reserves appear to be unlimited, and at current market price the gross margin of asteroid mining would be very high. It is natural to ask: when AstroForge successfully demonstrates economic space mining of PGM, will they cause the PGM market to collapse? We answer the question with a non-steady system dynamics model of the PGM market. We find that the market price for PGM will eventually drop towards the much lower cost of asteroid mining, but only after the entire supply has shifted off-world. In the meanwhile, huge fortunes will be made. And everybody on Earth will benefit from new applications of lower-price PGM.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

AI Hastens Limits to Exponential Growth

At any sustained positive growth rate of energy demand, depletion of all terrestrial energy resources, including non-renewable deuterium fusion and renewable solar, occurs within a remarkably compressed period. The time to depletion is inversely proportional to the demand growth rate. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to increase the growth rate of electricity from three percent per year to fifteen percent per year, effectively collapsing multi-millennial expansion timelines into decades. To grow after terrestrial depletion will require capturing more of the sun's output than the earth's cross-sectional area, eventually capturing the entire sun's output (Kardashev Type~II civilization). Expansion beyond that threshold requires colonizing other star systems. Simple algebraic models yield the main conclusions of the paper, supported by a system dynamics simulation. This analysis reveals that even unthinkably vast resources, such as total oceanic deuterium or the full luminosity of the Sun, are decidedly finite when viewed through a logarithmic lens. Uncertainties in the exact remaining resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium do not affect the conclusions of this paper, as the fundamental physical limit is dictated by the geometry of expansion and the universal speed of light.

physics.soc-ph↗