arXiv subjects

Steven Prestwich

Publications and source records attributed to Steven Prestwich.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Intermittency and Obsolescence: a Croston Method With Linear Decay

Only two Croston-style forecasting methods are currently known for handling stochastic intermittent demand with possible demand obsolescence: TSB and HES, both shown to be unbiased. When an item becomes obsolescent then TSB's forecasts decay exponentially, while HES's decay hyperbolically. We describe a third variant called Linear-Exponential Smoothing that is also unbiased, decays linearly to zero in a finite time, is asymptotically the best variant for handling obsolescence, and performs well in experiments.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2014

Statistical Constraints

We introduce statistical constraints, a declarative modelling tool that links statistics and constraint programming. We discuss two statistical constraints and some associated filtering algorithms. Finally, we illustrate applications to standard problems encountered in statistics and to a novel inspection scheduling problem in which the aim is to find inspection plans with desirable statistical properties.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

Confidence-based Optimization for the Newsvendor Problem

We introduce a novel strategy to address the issue of demand estimation in single-item single-period stochastic inventory optimisation problems. Our strategy analytically combines confidence interval analysis and inventory optimisation. We assume that the decision maker is given a set of past demand samples and we employ confidence interval analysis in order to identify a range of candidate order quantities that, with prescribed confidence probability, includes the real optimal order quantity for the underlying stochastic demand process with unknown stationary parameter(s). In addition, for each candidate order quantity that is identified, our approach can produce an upper and a lower bound for the associated cost. We apply our novel approach to three demand distribution in the exponential family: binomial, Poisson, and exponential. For two of these distributions we also discuss the extension to the case of unobserved lost sales. Numerical examples are presented in which we show how our approach complements existing frequentist - e.g. based on maximum likelihood estimators - or Bayesian strategies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2013

Piecewise linear approximations of the standard normal first order loss function

The first order loss function and its complementary function are extensively used in practical settings. When the random variable of interest is normally distributed, the first order loss function can be easily expressed in terms of the standard normal cumulative distribution and probability density function. However, the standard normal cumulative distribution does not admit a closed form solution and cannot be easily linearised. Several works in the literature discuss approximations for either the standard normal cumulative distribution or the first order loss function and their inverse. However, a comprehensive study on piecewise linear upper and lower bounds for the first order loss function is still missing. In this work, we initially summarise a number of distribution independent results for the first order loss function and its complementary function. We then extend this discussion by focusing first on random variable featuring a symmetric distribution, and then on normally distributed random variables. For the latter, we develop effective piecewise linear upper and lower bounds that can be immediately embedded in MILP models. These linearisations rely on constant parameters that are independent of the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution of interest. We finally discuss how to compute optimal linearisation parameters that minimise the maximum approximation error.

math.OC↗

arXiv2012

Earthquake Scenario Reduction by Symmetry Reasoning

A recently identified problem is that of finding an optimal investment plan for a transportation network, given that a disaster such as an earthquake may destroy links in the network. The aim is to strengthen key links to preserve the expected network connectivity. A network based on the Istanbul highway system has thirty links and therefore a billion scenarios, but it has been estimated that sampling a million scenarios gives reasonable accuracy. In this paper we use symmetry reasoning to reduce the number of scenarios to a much smaller number, making sampling unnecessary. This result can be used to facilitate metaheuristic and exact approaches to the problem.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2009

On Improving Local Search for Unsatisfiability

Stochastic local search (SLS) has been an active field of research in the last few years, with new techniques and procedures being developed at an astonishing rate. SLS has been traditionally associated with satisfiability solving, that is, finding a solution for a given problem instance, as its intrinsic nature does not address unsatisfiable problems. Unsatisfiable instances were therefore commonly solved using backtrack search solvers. For this reason, in the late 90s Selman, Kautz and McAllester proposed a challenge to use local search instead to prove unsatisfiability. More recently, two SLS solvers - Ranger and Gunsat - have been developed, which are able to prove unsatisfiability albeit being SLS solvers. In this paper, we first compare Ranger with Gunsat and then propose to improve Ranger performance using some of Gunsat's techniques, namely unit propagation look-ahead and extended resolution.

cs.AI↗