Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Steven R. Chesley

Publications and source records attributed to Steven R. Chesley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2025

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science: Incremental Templates in Year 1

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is due to commence the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the end of 2025. To detect transient/variable sources and identify solar system objects (SSOs), the processing pipelines require templates of the static sky to perform difference imaging. During the first year of the LSST, templates must be generated as the survey progresses, otherwise SSOs cannot be discovered nightly. The incremental template generation strategy has not been finalized; therefore, we use the Metric Analysis Framework (MAF) and a simulation of the survey cadence (one_snap_v4.0_10yrs}) to explore template generation in Year 1. We have assessed the effects of generating templates over timescales of days-weeks, when at least four images of sufficient quality are available for $\geq90\%$ of the visit. We predict that SSO discoveries will begin $\sim$2-3 months after the start of the survey. We find that the ability of the LSST to discover SSOs in real-time is reduced in Year 1. This is especially true for detections in areas of the sky that receive fewer visits, such as the North Ecliptic Spur (NES), and in less commonly used filters, such as the $u$ and $g$-bands. The lack of templates in the NES dominates the loss of real-time SSO discoveries; across the whole sky the MAF Main-Belt asteroid (MBA) discovery metric decreases by up to $63\%$ compared to the baseline observing strategy, whereas the metric decreases by up to $79\%$ for MBAs in the NES alone.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2025

The Dynamical State of the Didymos System Before and After the DART Impact

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the natural satellite of (65803) Didymos, on 2022 September 26, as a first successful test of kinetic impactor technology for deflecting a potentially hazardous object in space. The experiment resulted in a small change to the dynamical state of the Didymos system consistent with expectations and Level 1 mission requirements. In the pre-encounter paper Richardson (2022), predictions were put forward regarding the pre- and post-impact dynamical state of the Didymos system. Here we assess these predictions, update preliminary findings published after the impact, report on new findings related to dynamics, and provide implications for ESA's Hera mission to Didymos, scheduled for launch in 2024 with arrival in late December 2026. Pre-encounter predictions tested to date are largely in line with observations, despite the unexpected, flattened appearance of Didymos compared to the radar model and the apparent pre-impact oblate shape of Dimorphos (with implications for the origin of the system that remain under investigation). New findings include that Dimorphos likely became prolate due to the impact and may have entered a tumbling rotation state. A possible detection of a post-impact transient secular decrease in the binary orbital period suggests possible dynamical coupling with persistent ejecta. Timescales for damping of any tumbling and clearing of any debris are uncertain. The largest uncertainty in the momentum transfer enhancement factor of the DART impact remains the mass of Dimorphos, which will be resolved by the Hera mission.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2024

Two Distinct Populations of Dark Comets Delineated by Orbits and Sizes

Small bodies are capable of delivering essential prerequisites for the development of life, such as volatiles and organics, to the terrestrial planets. For example, empirical evidence suggests that water was delivered to the Earth by hydrated planetesimals from distant regions of the Solar System. Recently, several morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) were reported to experience significant nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiation-based effects, and possibly explained by volatile-driven outgassing. However, these "dark comets" display no evidence of comae in archival images, which are the defining feature of cometary activity. Here we report detections of nongravitational accelerations on seven additional objects previously classified as inactive (doubling the population) that could also be explainable by asymmetric mass loss. A detailed search of archival survey and targeted data rendered no detection of dust activity in any of these objects in individual or stacked images. We calculate dust production limits of $\sim10$, $0.1$, and $0.1$ kg s$^{-1}$ for 1998 FR$_{11}$, 2001 ME$_{1}$, and 2003 RM with these data, indicating little or no dust surrounding the objects during the observations. This set of dark comets reveals the delineation between two distinct populations: larger, "outer" dark comets on eccentric orbits that are end members of a continuum in activity level of comets, and smaller, "inner" dark comets on near-circular orbits that could signify a new population. These objects may trace various stages in the life cycle of a previously undetected, but potentially numerous, volatile-rich population that may have provided essential material to the Earth.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2024

The Debiased Near-Earth Object Population from ATLAS Telescopes

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $ν_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2024

NEOMOD 3: The Debiased Size Distribution of Near Earth Objects

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2024

Dimorphos orbit determination from mutual events photometry

The NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully impacted the Didymos-Dimorphos binary asteroid system on 2022 September 26 UTC. We provide an update to its pre-impact mutual orbit and estimate the post-impact physical and orbital parameters, derived using ground-based photometric observations taken from July 2022 to February 2023. We found that the total change of the orbital period was $-33.240 \pm 0.072$ min. (all uncertainties are 3$σ$). We obtained the eccentricity of the post-impact orbit to be $0.028 \pm 0.016$ and the apsidal precession rate of $7.3 \pm 2.0$ deg./day from the impact to 2022 December 2. The data taken later in December to February suggest that the eccentricity dropped close to zero or the orbit became chaotic approximately 70 days after the impact. Most of the period change took place immediately after the impact but in a few weeks following the impact it was followed by additional change of $-27^{+19}_{-58}$ seconds or $-19 \pm 18$ seconds (the two values depend on the approach we used to describe the evolution of the orbital period after the impact -- an exponentially decreasing angular acceleration or an assumption of a constant orbital period, which changed abruptly some time after the impact, respectively). We estimate the pre-impact Dimorphos-Didymos size ratio was $0.223 \pm 0.012$ and the post-impact is $0.202 \pm 0.018$, which indicates a marginally significant reduction of Dimorphos' volume by ($9 \pm 9) \%$ as the result of the impact.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

NEOMOD 2: An Updated Model of Near-Earth Objects from a Decade of Catalina Sky Survey Observations

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

The $ω$-limit set in a positively invariant compact region and a new description of the Lorenz attractor

The $ω$-limit set in a compact positively invariant region $R \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ has been identified for $n=1$, 2, and 3, with examples in each case. It has been shown that the $ω$-limit set becomes more complex as $n$ increases from 1 to 3, and we expect this to also be true for $n>3$. Our example for $n=3$ is the Lorenz equations, for which we have shown that its $ω$-limit set is a {\em twisted torus}

math.DS↗
arXiv2023

Photometry of the Didymos system across the DART impact apparition

On 26 September 2022, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the satellite of binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This demonstrated the efficacy of a kinetic impactor for planetary defense by changing the orbital period of Dimorphos by 33 minutes (Thomas et al. 2023). Measuring the period change relied heavily on a coordinated campaign of lightcurve photometry designed to detect mutual events (occultations and eclipses) as a direct probe of the satellite's orbital period. A total of 28 telescopes contributed 224 individual lightcurves during the impact apparition from July 2022 to February 2023. We focus here on decomposable lightcurves, i.e. those from which mutual events could be extracted. We describe our process of lightcurve decomposition and use that to release the full data set for future analysis. We leverage these data to place constraints on the post-impact evolution of ejecta. The measured depths of mutual events relative to models showed that the ejecta became optically thin within the first ~1 day after impact, and then faded with a decay time of about 25 days. The bulk magnitude of the system showed that ejecta no longer contributed measurable brightness enhancement after about 20 days post-impact. This bulk photometric behavior was not well represented by an HG photometric model. An HG1G2 model did fit the data well across a wide range of phase angles. Lastly, we note the presence of an ejecta tail through at least March 2023. Its persistence implied ongoing escape of ejecta from the system many months after DART impact.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

The Perturbed Full Two-Body Problem: Application to Post-DART Didymos

With the successful impact of the NASA DART spacecraft in the Didymos-Dimorphos binary asteroid system, we provide an initial analysis of the post-impact perturbed binary asteroid dynamics. To compare our simulation results with observations, we introduce a set of "observable elements" calculated using only the physical separation of the binary asteroid, rather than traditional Keplerian elements. Using numerical methods that treat the fully spin-orbit-coupled dynamics, we estimate the system's mass and the impact-induced changes in orbital velocity, semimajor axis, and eccentricity. We find that the changes to the mutual orbit depend strongly on the separation distance between Didymos and Dimorphos at the time of impact. If Dimorphos enters a tumbling state after the impact, this may be observable through changes in the system's eccentricity and orbit period. We also find that any DART-induced reshaping of Dimorphos would generally reduce the required change in orbital velocity to achieve the measured post-impact orbit period and will be assessed by the ESA Hera mission in 2027.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

NEOMOD: A New Orbital Distribution Model for Near Earth Objects

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $ν_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $θ\simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $θ\simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to start the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in early to mid-2025. This multi-band wide-field synoptic survey will transform our view of the solar system, with the discovery and monitoring of over 5 million small bodies.The final survey strategy chosen for LSST has direct implications on the discoverability and characterization of solar system minor planets and passing interstellar objects. Creating an inventory of the solar system is one of the four main LSST science drivers. The LSST observing cadence is a complex optimization problem that must balance the priorities and needs of all the key LSST science areas. To design the best LSST survey strategy, a series of operation simulations using the Rubin Observatory scheduler have been generated to explore the various options for tuning observing parameters and prioritizations. We explore the impact of the various simulated LSST observing strategies on studying the solar system's small body reservoirs. We examine what are the best observing scenarios and review what are the important considerations for maximizing LSST solar system science. In general, most of the LSST cadence simulations produce +/-5% or less variations in our chosen key metrics, but a subset of the simulations significantly hinder science returns with much larger losses in the discovery and light curve metrics.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

Orbital Period Change of Dimorphos Due to the DART Kinetic Impact

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft successfully performed the first test of a kinetic impactor for asteroid deflection by impacting Dimorphos, the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos, and changing the orbital period of Dimorphos. A change in orbital period of approximately 7 minutes was expected if the incident momentum from the DART spacecraft was directly transferred to the asteroid target in a perfectly inelastic collision, but studies of the probable impact conditions and asteroid properties indicated that a considerable momentum enhancement ($β$) was possible. In the years prior to impact, we used lightcurve observations to accurately determine the pre-impact orbit parameters of Dimorphos with respect to Didymos. Here we report the change in the orbital period of Dimorphos as a result of the DART kinetic impact to be -33.0 +/- 1.0 (3$σ$) minutes. Using new Earth-based lightcurve and radar observations, two independent approaches determined identical values for the change in the orbital period. This large orbit period change suggests that ejecta contributed a significant amount of momentum to the asteroid beyond what the DART spacecraft carried.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

Successful Kinetic Impact into an Asteroid for Planetary Defense

While no known asteroid poses a threat to Earth for at least the next century, the catalog of near-Earth asteroids is incomplete for objects whose impacts would produce regional devastation. Several approaches have been proposed to potentially prevent an asteroid impact with Earth by deflecting or disrupting an asteroid. A test of kinetic impact technology was identified as the highest priority space mission related to asteroid mitigation. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of kinetic impact technology. The mission's target asteroid was Dimorphos, the secondary member of the S-type binary near-Earth asteroid (65803) Didymos. This binary asteroid system was chosen to enable ground-based telescopes to quantify the asteroid deflection caused by DART's impact. While past missions have utilized impactors to investigate the properties of small bodies those earlier missions were not intended to deflect their targets and did not achieve measurable deflections. Here we report the DART spacecraft's autonomous kinetic impact into Dimorphos and reconstruct the impact event, including the timeline leading to impact, the location and nature of the DART impact site, and the size and shape of Dimorphos. The successful impact of the DART spacecraft with Dimorphos and the resulting change in Dimorphos's orbit demonstrates that kinetic impactor technology is a viable technique to potentially defend Earth if necessary.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids

We report statistically significant detections of non-radial nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY$_{26}$, 2005 VL$_1$, 2016 NJ$_{33}$, 2010 VL$_{65}$, 2016 RH$_{120}$, and 2010 RF$_{12}$. The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect and there is no radiation-based, non-radial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing, and calculate implied H$_2$O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small and some are rapidly rotating, surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present day value. We calculate dust production rates of order $\sim10^{-4}$ g s$^{-1}$ in each object assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $\dot{M}_{\rm Dust}<0.2$ g s$^{-1}$. This production corresponds to brightness variations of order $\sim0.0025\%$, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets, and find that the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ -- which is also the target for the extended Hayabusa2 mission -- exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2023

(523599) 2003 RM: The asteroid that wanted to be a comet

We report a statistically significant detection of nongravitational acceleration on the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid (523599) 2003 RM. Due to its orbit, 2003 RM experiences favorable observing apparitions every 5 years. Thus, since its discovery, 2003 RM has been extensively tracked with ground-based optical facilities in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. We find that the observed plane-of-sky positions cannot be explained with a purely gravity-driven trajectory. Including a transverse nongravitational acceleration allows us to match all observational data, but its magnitude is inconsistent with perturbations typical of asteroids such as the Yarkovsky effect or solar radiation pressure. After ruling out that the orbital deviations are due to a close approach or collision with another asteroid, we hypothesize that this anomalous acceleration is caused by unseen cometary outgassing. A detailed search for evidence of cometary activity with archival and deep observations from Pan-STARRS and the VLT does not reveal any detectable dust production. However, the best-fitting H$_2$O sublimation model allows for brightening due to activity consistent with the scatter of the data. We estimate the production rate required for H$_2$O outgassing to power the acceleration, and find that, assuming a diameter of 300 m, 2003 RM would require Q(H$_2$O)$\sim10^{23}$ molec s$^{-1}$ at perihelion. We investigate the recent dynamical history of 2003 RM and find that the object most likely originated in the mid-to-outer main belt ($\sim86\%$) as opposed to from the Jupiter-family comet region ($\sim11\%$). Further observations, especially in the infrared, could shed light on the nature of this anomalous acceleration.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2022

Anticipating the DART impact: Orbit estimation of Dimorphos using a simplified model

We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its lightcurves from 2003-2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from non-gravitational forces such as Binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is $11.9214869 \pm 0.000028$~h ($1σ$) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of $(5.0\pm 1.0)\times 10^{-18}$~rad s$^{-2}$ $(1σ$). The formal $3σ$ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is $5.4^\circ$. Observations from July to September 2022, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about $4.2^\circ$. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of \citet{scheirich22}, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2022

After DART: Using the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor to inform a future planetary defense mission

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is the first full-scale test of an asteroid deflection technology. Results from the hypervelocity kinetic impact and Earth-based observations, coupled with LICIACube and the later Hera mission, will result in measurement of the momentum transfer efficiency accurate to ~10% and characterization of the Didymos binary system. But DART is a single experiment; how could these results be used in a future planetary defense necessity involving a different asteroid? We examine what aspects of Dimorphos's response to kinetic impact will be constrained by DART results; how these constraints will help refine knowledge of the physical properties of asteroidal materials and predictive power of impact simulations; what information about a potential Earth impactor could be acquired before a deflection effort; and how design of a deflection mission should be informed by this understanding. We generalize the momentum enhancement factor $β$, showing that a particular direction-specific $β$ will be directly determined by the DART results, and that a related direction-specific $β$ is a figure of merit for a kinetic impact mission. The DART $β$ determination constrains the ejecta momentum vector, which, with hydrodynamic simulations, constrains the physical properties of Dimorphos's near-surface. In a hypothetical planetary defense exigency, extrapolating these constraints to a newly discovered asteroid will require Earth-based observations and benefit from in-situ reconnaissance. We show representative predictions for momentum transfer based on different levels of reconnaissance and discuss strategic targeting to optimize the deflection and reduce the risk of a counterproductive deflection in the wrong direction.

astro-ph.EP↗