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Stuart Lee

Publications and source records attributed to Stuart Lee.

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SCAN: Sequentially Detecting Change-points via Adaptive Nonparametric Inference

Modern time series are often long, serially dependent, and non-stationary. Existing change-point methods either target specific changes or become computationally intensive when using nonparametric costs on long series. Many also require thresholds to be carefully calibrated under serial dependence. We introduce SCAN, an offline method for detecting multiple distributional change-points in long, serially dependent univariate time series. SCAN compares adjacent windows using an integral probability metric, calibrates local discrepancies with a dependence-aware bootstrap, and refines candidate locations using a scaled 1-Wasserstein criterion, enabling detection of changes in mean, variance, and broader distributional structure within a unified framework. An ensemble over multiple window sizes reduces sensitivity to window size and threshold specification. We establish consistency of the estimated number and locations of change-points under exponential alpha-mixing dependence, and show that the localization statistic reduces to a CUSUM-type statistic under pure mean shifts. In simulations with up to one million observations, SCAN generally achieves higher covering and F1-scores than competing methods across mean and joint mean-variance shifts, particularly under serial dependence. On real data, SCAN identifies labeled activity transitions in sensor data and interpretable structural changes in hourly Bitcoin prices. Implementations are available in the Python package scan-cpd and R package scanr.

stat.ME

Casting Multiple Shadows: High-Dimensional Interactive Data Visualisation with Tours and Embeddings

Non-linear dimensionality reduction (NLDR) methods such as t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding (t-SNE) are ubiquitous in the natural sciences, however, the appropriate use of these methods is difficult because of their complex parameterisations; analysts must make trade-offs in order to identify structure in the visualisation of an NLDR technique. We present visual diagnostics for the pragmatic usage of NLDR methods by combining them with a technique called the tour. A tour is a sequence of interpolated linear projections of multivariate data onto a lower dimensional space. The sequence is displayed as a dynamic visualisation, allowing a user to see the shadows the high-dimensional data casts in a lower dimensional view. By linking the tour to an NLDR view, we can preserve global structure and through user interactions like linked brushing observe where the NLDR view may be misleading. We display several case studies from both simulations and single cell transcriptomics, that shows our approach is useful for cluster orientation tasks.

stat.OT

Burning sage: Reversing the curse of dimensionality in the visualization of high-dimensional data

In high-dimensional data analysis the curse of dimensionality reasons that points tend to be far away from the center of the distribution and on the edge of high-dimensional space. Contrary to this, is that projected data tends to clump at the center. This gives a sense that any structure near the center of the projection is obscured, whether this is true or not. A transformation to reverse the curse, is defined in this paper, which uses radial transformations on the projected data. It is integrated seamlessly into the grand tour algorithm, and we have called it a burning sage tour, to indicate that it reverses the curse. The work is implemented into the tourr package in R. Several case studies are included that show how the sage visualizations enhance exploratory clustering and classification problems.

stat.CO