arXiv subjects

Suguru Otani

Publications and source records attributed to Suguru Otani.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Happy Birthday? Age Labels, Search Criteria, and Matching from Dating to Marriage

Age is a match trait and a prominent label on search platforms. Using confidential records from a large Japanese marriage platform, I study how a birthday age update affects consideration, applications, relationship progression, and engagement. Only displayed age updates at birthdays. Receivers enter some acceptable-age ranges as they exit others, leaving only modest overall eligibility changes. Application counts often increase. Applications shift from younger to older suitors. Proposal counts fall at nine of ten female receiver ages \(31\text{--}40\), with losses concentrated at entry into early dating. In stage-specific accounting for receivers in their thirties, the no-birthday proposal count is \(12.9\) percent above the benchmark for female receivers and \(6.7\) percent below it for male receivers; the younger-man share in the female-receiver channel is \(4.8\) percentage points higher. Age labels and filters are not neutral windows onto preferences: they govern who marries whom and how many marriages form.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Designing Recommendation Exposure and Favorite Lists: A Field Experiment in a Spot-Work Platform

How should recommender systems be designed when recommendations shape access to scarce, short-lived opportunities? We study this question in a production setting: Timee, Japan's largest platform for spot work, where workers favorite job templates and receive notifications when firms post shifts from those templates. Maximizing predicted favoriting can generate misdirected concentration: recommendations accumulate on popular templates that create few viable job openings, while templates with unmet labor demand receive too little exposure. We design exposure-control mechanisms for favorite-list management, reallocating template exposure based on posting activity and unfilled capacity. The proposed recommender, thresholded eligibility control (TEC), is fully parallelizable and suitable for large-scale digital platforms. In simulations calibrated to Timee data, TEC raises the per-round job-finding rate from 57.6% to 70.0%. A prefecture-level randomized field experiment increases realized matches and exposure per active template, reduces the share of low-exposure templates, and improves impression-level favoriting and downstream matching.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Marital Sorting on Pre-Marital Preferences for Household Behavior

We examine marital sorting using novel data from a marriage-matching platform that records both a dating-to-marriage pipeline and pre-marital attributes, including preferences for children and for the division of housework and childcare. Unlike census or post-marital surveys, characteristics are collected before matching, and objectively measurable attributes are verified using official documents, providing an ideal setting to study matching and sorting free from post-marital adjustment. Using a multidimensional matching framework across twelve attributes, we find assortative matching along all dimensions. Age is the most salient trait, while preferences for children are second--exceeding education--an economically important margin invisible in standard data. A low-dimensional factor representation shows that fertility preferences constitute a distinct sorting dimension. Exploiting the platform's dating-to-marriage pipeline, we show that sorting on fertility preferences emerges at later serious-relationship stages. A theoretical analysis suggests that the magnitude of sorting along this margin is consistent with the veto model of fertility decisions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Just After Minimum Wage Hikes: Short-Run Labor-Demand Response and Reallocation

How labor markets adjust immediately after minimum wage hikes remains an open, policy-relevant question. This paper studies short-run minimum-wage effects in Japan's spot labor market using Timee data and a wage-bin difference-in-differences design. We find a 2\% employment decline in affected bins, driven by reduced vacancy creation rather than worker supply. Effects are more negative where the minimum-wage bite is higher and in low-wage occupations. Using job descriptions and amenity information, we document reallocation across job types: postings shift toward greater amenity provision and experienced-worker targeting, while female-targeted descriptions become less common, suggesting short-run labor-demand adjustments may foreshadow longer-run reallocation.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

A Note on Assortativeness Measures

Chiappori et al. (2025) study several indices of assortativeness in matching, including the aggregate likelihood ratio and the odds ratio. We provide a counterexample showing that their axiomatization of the aggregate likelihood ratio is not valid as stated. We identify the exact class of indices characterized by the axioms in Chiappori et al. (2025). We then show that the axiomatization of the aggregate likelihood ratio can be recovered by adding new axioms. In addition, we point out errors in the axiomatizations of other measures in Chiappori et al. (2025). Finally, we offer a generalization of the odds ratio from two-type markets to multi-type markets.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Reference Points, Risk-Taking Behavior, and Competitive Outcomes in Sequential Settings

Understanding how competitive pressure affects risk-taking is crucial in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. This study examines these effects using bench press competition data, where individuals make risk-based choices under pressure. We estimate the impact of pressure on weight selection and success probability. Pressure from rivals increases attempted weights on average, but responses vary by gender, experience, and rivalry history. Counterfactual simulations show that removing pressure leads many lifters to select lower weights and achieve lower success rates, though some benefit. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in how competition shapes both risk-taking and performance.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Integrating Predictive Models into Two-Sided Recommendations: A Matching-Theoretic Approach

Two-sided platforms must recommend users to users, where matches (termed \emph{dates} in this paper) require mutual interest and activity on both sides. Naive ranking by predicted dating probabilities concentrates exposure on a small subset of highly responsive users, generating congestion and overstating efficiency. We model recommendation as a many-to-many matching problem and design integrators that map predicted login, like, and reciprocation probabilities into recommendations under attention constraints. We introduce \emph{effective dates}, a congestion-adjusted metric that discounts matches involving overloaded receivers. We then propose \emph{exposure-constrained deferred acceptance} (ECDA), which limits receiver exposure in terms of expected likes or dates rather than headcount. Using production-grade predictions from a large Japanese dating platform, we show in calibrated simulations that ECDA increases effective dates and receiver-side dating probability despite reducing total dates. A large-scale regional field experiment confirms these effects in practice, indicating that exposure control improves equity and early-stage matching efficiency without harming downstream engagement.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Revisiting the Identification of the Conduct Parameter in Homogeneous Goods Markets

We revisit the identification of the conduct parameter in homogeneous goods markets. Lau (1982) argues that the conduct parameter is not identified if and only if the inverse demand function is separable, except for a specific separable function. This result has been regarded as an extension of the result in Bresnahan (1982) to more general settings. However, we show that Lau's claim is incorrect and provide a new characterization of the non-identification. Our characterization shows that a demand function with demand rotation instruments is the necessary and sufficient condition for the identification of the conduct parameter. Therefore, our result properly generalizes the role of demand rotation instruments in identifying the conduct parameter, as highlighted by Bresnahan (1982), to more general settings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Team for Speed: Nonparametric Evidence on Heterogeneous Skill-Specific Affinity in Team Production

We examine whether team affinity differs across skill dimensions in team production. Using a novel nonparametric framework that accommodates task-level structure, role asymmetry, and latent affinity, we decompose team performance into skill-specific productivity and unobserved match affinity. As an illustrative application, we analyze elite women's bobsleigh data, where performance can be separated into start and riding phases with distinct individual skill inputs. The estimates reveal heterogeneous, task-specific affinities: coordination and complementarity are stronger in the start phase but weaker and more dispersed during riding, underscoring skill-specific heterogeneity in unobserved team affinity.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

The Option Value of Contract Duration: Evidence from the U.S. Timber Market

This study quantifies how contract duration influences buyers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) when they hold real options that allow them to flexibly time consumption in response to changing market conditions. Using contract data from the US timber industry, we show that buyers delay consumption to manage payoff risk. This behavior generates heterogeneous WTP across buyers. We use structural estimation to uncover the key parameters underlying the incentive to delay consumption. Using these estimates, we conduct counterfactual simulations to measure how longer contract durations shift WTP and to clarify the boundary conditions linked to project size, buyer composition, and market trends. The counterfactual simulations reveal that extending contract duration from 3 to 4 years raises seller revenue by 9-13%, with effects amplified for larger projects and high-type buyers during the upward market trend.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Conduct Parameter Estimation in Homogeneous Goods Markets with Equilibrium Existence and Uniqueness Conditions: The Case of Log-linear Specification

We propose a constrained generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with some equilibrium uniqueness conditions for estimating the conduct parameter in a log-linear model with homogeneous goods markets. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that merely imposing parameter restrictions leads to not just inaccurate estimations but also some numerical issues, and adding the equilibrium uniqueness conditions resolves them. We also suggest a formulation of the GMM estimation to further avoid the numerical issues.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity on a Private On-the-Job Search Platform: Evidence from Japan, 2014-2024

I analyze proprietary data from BizReach (2014-2024) to estimate the matching function for high-skill workers on a private on-the-job search platform using Lange and Papageorgiou (2020) nonparametric approach. Comparing it to Hello Work, I find that matching efficiency on the private platform is both more volatile and higher, reflecting its growing popularity. Matching elasticity with respect to users is around 0.75 , while for vacancies, it reaches 1.0 , suggesting a more balanced elasticity than Hello Work. The study also uncovers industry-level heterogeneity, highlighting differences in matching dynamics across sectors.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Are Final Market Prices Sufficient for Information Aggregation? Evidence from Last-Minute Dynamics in Parimutuel Betting

This study presents evidence challenging the practice of inferring risk preferences, probability perceptions, and beliefs from parimutuel betting markets, where wagers cannot be made contingent on final odds. Using interim odds from horse racing, we show that expected returns depend not only on final odds but also on the path through which they are reached: horses with final-five-minute odds declines earn higher realized returns than horses with similar final odds. We rationalize this path dependence using a two-period extension of the information-based model \`{a} la Ottaviani--S{\o}rensen, in which final-stage odds declines arise from informed bettors' late wagers based on private signals. The model also highlights that final odds--return patterns alone may not distinguish information aggregation from probability distortions.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Marriage Agency Platform: 2014--2025

This paper examines monthly matching efficiency in the Japanese marriage market using novel data from IBJ, the country's largest structured matching platform. Unlike administrative or dating app data, IBJ provides full search, dating, and matching logs based on verified profiles and confirmed engagements. Users are highly selected into serious marriage search via costly screening. Covering 3.3% of national marriages annually, the data offer rare behavioral granularity. Using a nonparametric approach, I estimate time-varying matching functions and elasticities. Efficiency rises threefold over time, illustrating how digital intermediation transforms partner search in modern marriage markets.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Elite Formation and Family Structure in Prewar Japan: Evidence from the Personnel Inquiry Records

This paper introduces a newly constructed individual-level dataset of prewar Japanese elites using the ``Who's Who'' directories published in 1903--1939. Covering approximately the top 0.1\% of the population, the dataset contains rich information on social group, education, occupation, and family structure. By reconstructing intergenerational links and family networks, we provide descriptive evidence on elite formation and persistence across geography, social groups, and education during transitions from a feudal system to a modern system. We also use family records to document elite marriage patterns and family-based mobility, showing stable age assortative matching, widening husband--wife age gaps, and associations between marriage-age structure, adoption, and elite persistence. The dataset provides a foundational empirical resource for studying intergenerational and intergroup mobility, and institutional development during Japan's transition to a modern society.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Mismatch in Labor Markets via Public Employment Security Offices in Japan, 1972-2024

I examine changes in matching efficiency and elasticities in Japan's labor market via Hello Work for unemployed workers from January 1972 to April 2024 using a nonparametric identification approach by y Lange and Papageorgiou (2020). I find a declining trend in matching efficiency, consistent with decreasing job and worker finding rates. The implied match elasticity with respect to unemployment is 0.5-0.9, whereas the implied match elasticity with respect to vacancies varies between -0.4 and 0.4. Decomposing aggregate data into full-time and part-time ones, I find that the sharp decline of matching efficiency after 2015 shown in the aggregate trend is driven by the decline of both full-time and part-time ones. Second, I extend the mismatch index proposed by Sahin et al (2014) to the nonparametric version and develop the computational methodology. I find that the mismatch across occupations is more severe than across prefectures and the original Cobb-Douglas mismatch index is underestimated.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric Estimation of Matching Efficiency and Elasticity in a Spot Gig Work Platform: 2019-2023

This paper provides new evidence on spot gig work platforms for individuals seeking flexible, short-term jobs with minimal educational or experience requirements in Japan. Using proprietary data from Timee, a private matching platform, the study analyzes trends in active users, vacancies, hires, and labor market tightness, compared to part-time data from Hello Work, a public employment service. Applying a nonparametric approach, it finds that the private platform exhibits substantially higher matching efficiency, especially after 2022. Elasticities also differ across platforms: for Hello Work, the user elasticity fluctuates around 0.3--0.5, while the vacancy elasticity ranges roughly from 0.4 to slightly above 1.0; for the private platform, the user elasticity remains around 0.2--0.3, while the vacancy elasticity ranges from 0.7 to 1.1. At the prefecture level, the three prefectures exhibit broadly similar movements early in the sample, followed by divergence and partial re-convergence later on, while elasticities remain stable and similar across regions. These results reveal how digital platforms reshape job matching dynamics relative to traditional systems.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Unified Merger List in the Container Shipping Industry from 1966 to 2022: A Structural Estimation of M&A Matching

We construct a novel unified merger list in the global container shipping industry between 1966 (the beginning of the industry) and 2022. Combining the list with proprietary data, we construct a structural matching model to describe the historical transition of the importance of a firm's age, size, and geographical proximity on merger decisions. We find that, as a positive factor, a firm's size is more important than a firm's age by 9.858 times as a merger incentive between 1991 and 2005. However, between 2006 and 2022, as a negative factor, a firm's size is more important than a firm's age by 2.013 times, that is, a firm's size works as a disincentive. We also find that the distance between buyer and seller firms works as a disincentive for the whole period, but the importance has dwindled to economic insignificance in recent years. In counterfactual simulations, we observe that the prohibition of mergers between firms in the same country would affect the merger configuration of not only the firms involved in prohibited mergers but also those involved in permitted mergers. Finally, we present interview-based evidence of the consistency between our merger lists, estimations, and counterfactual simulations with the industry experts' historical experiences.

econ.GN↗