A method of Risk Analysis and threat management using analytic hierarchy process
Efficient risk analysis and threat management are essential requirements of modern air defense (AD) systems. The paper is halfway between the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and practical reasoning to model and analyze the risks and threats associated with military AD applications. The models are applied for decision-making tasks of AD command and control (C2) for assessing and prioritizing the threat from hostile targets for efficient risk management. The paper presents a method for threat assessment using fuzzy set theory, the AHP, and the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). The target threat attributes are first represented using fuzzy set theory. The experts' subjective opinions on different alternatives are quantified and ranked using the AHP process. These AHP solutions are obtained through the TOPSIS for prioritization. The models are implemented in a simulated environment. The simulated system runs without any human intervention and represents the state-of-the-art model for the C2 system. The use of fuzzy set theory, AHP, and TOPSIS for decision-making tasks is particularly useful from the point of view of futuristic risk and threat management in the battlefield. This method is easy to implement in practice and good for real-time applications.