arXiv subjects

Sumio Watanabe

Publications and source records attributed to Sumio Watanabe.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Asymptotic Learning Curve and Renormalizable Condition in Statistical Learning Theory

Bayes statistics and statistical physics have the common mathematical structure, where the log likelihood function corresponds to the random Hamiltonian. Recently, it was discovered that the asymptotic learning curves in Bayes estimation are subject to a universal law, even if the log likelihood function can not be approximated by any quadratic form. However, it is left unknown what mathematical property ensures such a universal law. In this paper, we define a renormalizable condition of the statistical estimation problem, and show that, under such a condition, the asymptotic learning curves are ensured to be subject to the universal law, even if the true distribution is unrealizable and singular for a statistical model. Also we study a nonrenormalizable case, in which the learning curves have the different asymptotic behaviors from the universal law.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

Equations of States in Statistical Learning for a Nonparametrizable and Regular Case

Many learning machines that have hierarchical structure or hidden variables are now being used in information science, artificial intelligence, and bioinformatics. However, several learning machines used in such fields are not regular but singular statistical models, hence their generalization performance is still left unknown. To overcome these problems, in the previous papers, we proved new equations in statistical learning, by which we can estimate the Bayes generalization loss from the Bayes training loss and the functional variance, on the condition that the true distribution is a singularity contained in a learning machine. In this paper, we prove that the same equations hold even if a true distribution is not contained in a parametric model. Also we prove that, the proposed equations in a regular case are asymptotically equivalent to the Takeuchi information criterion. Therefore, the proposed equations are always applicable without any condition on the unknown true distribution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

Equations of States in Singular Statistical Estimation

Learning machines which have hierarchical structures or hidden variables are singular statistical models because they are nonidentifiable and their Fisher information matrices are singular. In singular statistical models, neither the Bayes a posteriori distribution converges to the normal distribution nor the maximum likelihood estimator satisfies asymptotic normality. This is the main reason why it has been difficult to predict their generalization performances from trained states. In this paper, we study four errors, (1) Bayes generalization error, (2) Bayes training error, (3) Gibbs generalization error, and (4) Gibbs training error, and prove that there are mathematical relations among these errors. The formulas proved in this paper are equations of states in statistical estimation because they hold for any true distribution, any parametric model, and any a priori distribution. Also we show that Bayes and Gibbs generalization errors are estimated by Bayes and Gibbs training errors, and propose widely applicable information criteria which can be applied to both regular and singular statistical models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2009

A Limit Theorem in Singular Regression Problem

In statistical problems, a set of parameterized probability distributions is used to estimate the true probability distribution. If Fisher information matrix at the true distribution is singular, then it has been left unknown what we can estimate about the true distribution from random samples. In this paper, we study a singular regression problem and prove a limit theorem which shows the relation between the singular regression problem and two birational invariants, a real log canonical threshold and a singular fluctuation. The obtained theorem has an important application to statistics, because it enables us to estimate the generalization error from the training error without any knowledge of the true probability distribution.

cs.LG↗