arXiv subjects

Sunil Gupta

Publications and source records attributed to Sunil Gupta.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Statistical Approach to Estimating Sample Size of Machine Learning Models

Sample size determination for machine learning (ML) prediction models is challenging because conventional power analysis typically requires the predictor-outcome relationship and effect structure to be specified a priori. Nonlinear ML models learn complex prediction surfaces that do not admit straightforward analytical power calculations. We propose a framework that approximates nonlinear ML models with localized linear representations and estimates sample size requirements by evaluating statistical power across these local regions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Similarity-Aware Personalized Federated Learning in Heterogeneous Environments

Federated Learning (FL) allows decentralized clients to train models collaboratively while preserving data privacy. However, distribution mismatch across clients often leads to poor global generalization and degraded local client-level performance. In such scenarios, some of the clients with their local models trained solely on local data may perform better than the globally learnt model, thus nullifying the benefits of collaborative federated learning. To address this, we propose SAPE-FL (Similarity-Aware Personalized Federated Learning), a novel personalization framework that anchors each client's model to both the global model and a similarity-weighted peer averaged model. By incorporating dynamic, client-specific regularization based on both model similarity and output similarity, SAPE-FL adaptively balances global knowledge transfer and peer collaboration while filtering out dissimilar clients. This dual anchoring mitigates negative transfer and enhances robustness in heterogeneous settings. We theoretically analyze our algorithm establishing its convergence guarantees and empirically show that SAPE-FL outperforms state-of-the-art methods under high statistical heterogeneity and low client data regimes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

SMOTE-VAR: An Uncertainty-Aware Oversampling Method for Predicting Depression Remission in University Students

University students experience disproportionately high rates of common mental health conditions, such as depression, which can impair learning, social functioning, and overall well-being. Although lifestyle interventions such as mindfulness and physical activity can reduce the symptoms, many do not achieve symptomatic remission. Developing new approaches to identify students with poor outcomes could enable earlier and more targeted intervention. Machine learning (ML) methods have increasingly been used to predict remission in depressive patients. However, these ML models often suffer from class imbalance, where there may be an unequal proportion of people in the remitted group relative to the non-remitted group. This imbalance can reduce model accuracy and bias predictions. To address this, studies commonly employ the popular oversampling strategy SMOTE. However, SMOTE has a notable limitation: it may generate invalid synthetic minority samples. In a clinical context, these false positives can lead to incorrect risk stratification, potentially delaying necessary escalated care for patients unlikely to remit. In this paper, we introduce a novel and effective oversampling method that addresses this shortcoming. Our approach leverages the variance function of a Gaussian process to estimate the uncertainty of generated minority samples to reduce false positives. We validate our method on a depression dataset collected from university students and demonstrate that it is better than existing oversampling approaches in predicting remission (i.e., treatment outcome). By improving the reliable identification of non-responders, our method provides a robust computational tool to help clinicians rapidly pivot to adjunctive therapies, thereby personalizing and optimizing mental health care pathways.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

LLM as Detector: An In-context Learning Approach for Tabular Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging because abnormal samples often arise as violations of cross-feature dependencies rather than simple marginal deviations. Existing detectors rely on geometric or reconstruction signals, while prior LLM-based approaches mainly fine-tune LLMs with normal samples or generate synthetic anomalies. We propose LLM-Detector, a framework that utilizes the in-context learning capacity of LLMs for structured, prompt-conditioned scoring synthesis, enabling LLMs to derive anomaly detection logic from structured normal-state knowledge. Specifically, normal training data are converted into statistical summaries, causal dependencies, and distilled prototypes that are organized into a prompt for code generation. The resulting scoring engine evaluates statistical deviation, structural inconsistency, and density-based abnormality then computes an anomaly score for each test sample. We evaluate LLM-Detector on 24 tabular datasets, comparing against 15 SOTA baselines. Results show consistent improvements across both mixed-type and continuous-only settings. Moreover, this design eliminates the need for LLM fine-tuning or neural network training, reducing computational cost and enabling practical anomaly detection in real-world tabular systems.

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arXiv2026

TAKE: Trajectory-Aware Knowledge Estimation for Text Dataset Distillation

Large-scale text corpora have become a quiet bottleneck in modern NLP, not just in storage, but in the accumulated cost of training, fine-tuning, and continual learning. We propose a text dataset distillation framework that reduces corpora to as little as 0.1% of their original size while preserving downstream task fidelity. We approach distillation through the lens of influence functions, which quantify each sample's contribution to the downstream objective, a natural and principled basis for selection. We introduce Trajectory-Aware Knowledge Estimation (TAKE), which convolves the knowledge-based influence along the training trajectory into a single per-sample knowledge score, capturing informative samples. These scores serve as sample weights within a discrete Optimal Transport objective, guiding prototype selection from a synthetically generated candidate pool. We evaluate TAKE on downstream accuracy across text classification and natural language inference tasks at extreme compression (0.1% or 20 samples/class), showing that data efficiency is achievable without sacrificing task fidelity. The approach is theoretically grounded, with broader implications for coreset construction and data-centric AI. We release our source code at https://github.com/votrinhan88/take.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty-Aware Budget Allocation for Adaptive Test-Time Reasoning

Sampling multiple responses improves language model reasoning, but uniform compute allocation is inefficient: easy questions are over-sampled while hard questions remain under-explored. We propose Uncertainty-Aware Budget Allocation (UAB), a concave integer optimization framework that reallocates a fixed sampling budget based on per-question uncertainty estimated at no additional inference cost. In Phase 1, every question receives one generation; its average negative log-likelihood (ANLL), extracted directly from output log-probabilities, serves as a difficulty signal while the generation contributes to the final vote. In Phase 2, the remaining budget is allocated by a marginal-greedy algorithm that solves a concave coverage-maximization surrogate exactly: uncertain questions receive more sampling budget while confident questions receive fewer additional samples. Evaluated on six open-weight and black-box models spanning 1.5B to 27B parameters and five reasoning benchmarks covering math, logic, and preference tasks, UAB outperforms baselines by up to +3% in average accuracy and up to +5% on individual benchmarks, with the largest gains in low-resource settings, requiring no auxiliary model or additional LLM call. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/manhitv/UAB.

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arXiv2026

Post-Optimization Adaptive Rank Allocation for LoRA

Exponential growth in the scale of modern foundation models has led to the widespread adoption of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) as a parameter-efficient fine-tuning technique. However, standard LoRA implementations disregard the varying intrinsic dimensionality of model layers and enforce a uniform rank, leading to parameter redundancy. We propose Post-Optimization Adaptive Rank Allocation (PARA), a data-free compression method for LoRA that integrates seamlessly into existing fine-tuning pipelines. PARA leverages Singular Value Decomposition to prune LoRA ranks using a global threshold over singular values across all layers. This results in non-uniform rank allocation based on layer-wise spectral importance. As a post-hoc method, PARA circumvents the training modifications and resulting instabilities that dynamic architectures typically incur. We empirically demonstrate that PARA reduces parameter count by 75-90\% while preserving the predictive performance of the original, uncompressed LoRA across multiple vision and language benchmarks. Code will be published upon acceptance.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Diverse Image Priors for Black-box Data-free Knowledge Distillation

Knowledge distillation (KD) represents a vital mechanism to transfer expertise from complex teacher networks to efficient student models. However, in decentralized or secure AI ecosystems, privacy regulations and proprietary interests often restrict access to the teacher's interface and original datasets. These constraints define a challenging black-box data-free KD scenario where only top-1 predictions and no training data are available. While recent approaches utilize synthetic data, they still face limitations in data diversity and distillation signals. We propose Diverse Image Priors Knowledge Distillation (DIP-KD), a framework that addresses these challenges through a three-phase collaborative pipeline: (1) Synthesis of image priors to capture diverse visual patterns and semantics; (2) Contrast to enhance the collective distinction between synthetic samples via contrastive learning; and (3) Distillation via a novel primer student that enables soft-probability KD. Our evaluation across 12 benchmarks shows that DIP-KD achieves state-of-the-art performance, with ablations confirming data diversity as critical for knowledge acquisition in restricted AI environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Improving Diversity in Black-box Few-shot Knowledge Distillation

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a well-known technique to effectively compress a large network (teacher) to a smaller network (student) with little sacrifice in performance. However, most KD methods require a large training set and internal access to the teacher, which are rarely available due to various restrictions. These challenges have originated a more practical setting known as black-box few-shot KD, where the student is trained with few images and a black-box teacher. Recent approaches typically generate additional synthetic images but lack an active strategy to promote their diversity, a crucial factor for student learning. To address these problems, we propose a novel training scheme for generative adversarial networks, where we adaptively select high-confidence images under the teacher's supervision and introduce them to the adversarial learning on-the-fly. Our approach helps expand and improve the diversity of the distillation set, significantly boosting student accuracy. Through extensive experiments, we achieve state-of-the-art results among other few-shot KD methods on seven image datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/votrinhan88/divbfkd.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Beyond Majority Voting: Efficient Best-Of-N with Radial Consensus Score

Large language models (LLMs) frequently generate multiple candidate responses for a given prompt, yet selecting the most reliable one remains challenging, especially when correctness diverges from surface-level majority agreement. Existing approaches, such as self-consistency, rely on discrete voting, while probability-based methods often fail to capture relationships among candidate answers or tend to underweight high-quality but less frequent responses, and do not fully leverage the geometric structure of answer representations. To address these limitations, we introduce Radial Consensus Score (RCS), a simple, efficient, and training-free method for best-of-N selection. RCS models semantic consensus by computing a weighted Fr\'echet mean (semantic center) of answer embeddings and ranking candidates by their radial distance to this center. Importantly, RCS provides a general framework that supports multiple weighting schemes, including uniform, frequency-based, and probability-based variants, enabling flexible integration of agreement signals and model confidence while remaining fully applicable in black-box settings. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks covering short-form QA and long-form reasoning tasks, and five open-weight models, demonstrate that RCS variants consistently outperform strong baselines, with gains becoming more pronounced as the sampling budget increases. RCS also serves as an effective drop-in replacement for majority voting in multi-agent debate and exhibits strong robustness in black-box scenarios. Overall, these results highlight geometric consensus as a scalable and broadly applicable principle for reliable answer selection, extending beyond majority voting to more expressive and robust aggregation in LLM inference.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

High-dimensional Level Set Estimation with Trust Regions and Double Acquisition Functions

Level set estimation (LSE) classifies whether an unknown function's value exceeds a specified threshold for given inputs, a fundamental problem in many real-world applications. In active learning settings with limited initial data, we aim to iteratively acquire informative points to construct an accurate classifier for this task. In high-dimensional spaces, this becomes challenging where the search volume grows exponentially with increasing dimensionality. We propose TRLSE, an algorithm for high-dimensional LSE, which identifies and refines regions near the threshold boundary with dual acquisition functions operating at both global and local levels. We provide a theoretical analysis of TRLSE's accuracy and show its superior sample efficiency against existing methods through extensive evaluations on multiple synthetic and real-world LSE problems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Acquisition Selection for Bayesian Optimization with Large Language Models

Bayesian Optimization critically depends on the choice of acquisition function, but no single strategy is universally optimal; the best choice is non-stationary and problem-dependent. Existing adaptive portfolio methods often base their decisions on past function values while ignoring richer information like remaining budget or surrogate model characteristics. To address this, we introduce LMABO, a novel framework that casts a pre-trained Large Language Model (LLM) as a zero-shot, online strategist for the BO process. At each iteration, LMABO uses a structured state representation to prompt the LLM to select the most suitable acquisition function from a diverse portfolio. In an evaluation across 50 benchmark problems, LMABO demonstrates a significant performance improvement over strong static, adaptive portfolio, and other LLM-based baselines. We show that the LLM's behavior is a comprehensive strategy that adapts to real-time progress, proving its advantage stems from its ability to process and synthesize the complete optimization state into an effective, adaptive policy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Score-based Integrated Gradient for Root Cause Explanations of Outliers

Identifying the root causes of outliers is a fundamental problem in causal inference and anomaly detection. Traditional approaches based on heuristics or counterfactual reasoning often struggle under uncertainty and high-dimensional dependencies. We introduce SIREN, a novel and scalable method that attributes the root causes of outliers by estimating the score functions of the data likelihood. Attribution is computed via integrated gradients that accumulate score contributions along paths from the outlier toward the normal data distribution. Our method satisfies three of the four classic Shapley value axioms - dummy, efficiency, and linearity - as well as an asymmetry axiom derived from the underlying causal structure. Unlike prior work, SIREN operates directly on the score function, enabling tractable and uncertainty-aware root cause attribution in nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heteroscedastic causal models. Extensive experiments on synthetic random graphs and real-world cloud service and supply chain datasets show that SIREN outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both attribution accuracy and computational efficiency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Federated Domain Generalization with Latent Space Inversion

Federated domain generalization (FedDG) addresses distribution shifts among clients in a federated learning framework. FedDG methods aggregate the parameters of locally trained client models to form a global model that generalizes to unseen clients while preserving data privacy. While improving the generalization capability of the global model, many existing approaches in FedDG jeopardize privacy by sharing statistics of client data between themselves. Our solution addresses this problem by contributing new ways to perform local client training and model aggregation. To improve local client training, we enforce (domain) invariance across local models with the help of a novel technique, \textbf{latent space inversion}, which enables better client privacy. When clients are not \emph{i.i.d}, aggregating their local models may discard certain local adaptations. To overcome this, we propose an \textbf{important weight} aggregation strategy to prioritize parameters that significantly influence predictions of local models during aggregation. Our extensive experiments show that our approach achieves superior results over state-of-the-art methods with less communication overhead.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Distance Is All You Need: Radial Dispersion for Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

Detecting uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is essential for building reliable systems, yet many existing approaches are overly complex and depend on brittle semantic clustering or access to model internals. We introduce Radial Dispersion Score (RDS), a simple, training-free, fully model-agnostic uncertainty metric that measures the radial dispersion of sampled generations in embedding space. Specifically, given $N$ sampled generations embedded on the unit hypersphere, RDS computes the total l1 distance from the empirical centroid, i.e., the mean embedding, providing a direct geometric signal of semantic variability. A lightweight probability-weighted variant further incorporates the model's own token probabilities when available, outperforming nine recent state-of-the-art baselines. Moreover, RDS naturally extends to effective per-sample uncertainty estimates that complement probability- and consistency-based methods while remaining lightweight for practical use. Across four challenging free-form question-answering datasets and four LLMs, our metrics achieve state-of-the-art hallucination detection performance, while remaining robust and scalable with respect to sample size and embedding choice. These results highlight the practical value of RDS and its contribution toward improving the trustworthiness of LLMs. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/manhitv/RDS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Probabilities Are All You Need: A Probability-Only Approach to Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit strong performance across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks but remain vulnerable to hallucinations, generating factually incorrect or misleading outputs. Uncertainty estimation, often using predictive entropy estimation, is key to addressing this issue. However, existing methods often require multiple samples or extra computation to assess semantic entropy. This paper proposes an efficient, training-free uncertainty estimation method that approximates predictive entropy using the responses' top-$K$ probabilities. Moreover, we employ an adaptive mechanism to determine $K$ to enhance flexibility and filter out low-confidence probabilities. Experimental results on three free-form question-answering datasets across several LLMs demonstrate that our method outperforms expensive state-of-the-art baselines, contributing to the broader goal of enhancing LLM trustworthiness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

GRAD: Graph-Retrieved Adaptive Decoding for Hallucination Mitigation

Hallucination mitigation remains a persistent challenge for large language models (LLMs), even as model scales grow. Existing approaches often rely on external knowledge sources, such as structured databases or knowledge graphs, accessed through prompting or retrieval. However, prompt-based grounding is fragile and domain-sensitive, while symbolic knowledge integration incurs heavy retrieval and formatting costs. Motivated by knowledge graphs, we introduce Graph-Retrieved Adaptive Decoding (GRAD), a decoding-time method that grounds generation in corpus-derived evidence without retraining. GRAD constructs a sparse token transition graph by accumulating next-token logits across a small retrieved corpus in a single forward pass. During decoding, graph-retrieved logits are max-normalized and adaptively fused with model logits to favor high-evidence continuations while preserving fluency. Across three models and a range of question-answering benchmarks spanning intrinsic, extrinsic hallucination, and factuality tasks, GRAD consistently surpasses baselines, achieving up to 9.7$\%$ higher intrinsic accuracy, 8.6$\%$ lower hallucination rates, and 6.9$\%$ greater correctness compared to greedy decoding, while attaining the highest truth--informativeness product score among all methods. GRAD offers a lightweight, plug-and-play alternative to contrastive decoding and knowledge graph augmentation, demonstrating that statistical evidence from corpus-level token transitions can effectively steer generation toward more truthful and verifiable outputs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Causal-Aware Generative Adversarial Networks with Reinforcement Learning

The utility of tabular data for tasks ranging from model training to large-scale data analysis is often constrained by privacy concerns or regulatory hurdles. While existing data generation methods, particularly those based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), have shown promise, they frequently struggle with capturing complex causal relationship, maintaining data utility, and providing provable privacy guarantees suitable for enterprise deployment. We introduce CA-GAN, a novel generative framework specifically engineered to address these challenges for real-world tabular datasets. CA-GAN utilizes a two-step approach: causal graph extraction to learn a robust, comprehensive causal relationship in the data's manifold, followed by a custom Conditional WGAN-GP (Wasserstein GAN with Gradient Penalty) that operates exclusively as per the structure of nodes in the causal graph. More importantly, the generator is trained with a new Reinforcement Learning-based objective that aligns the causal graphs constructed from real and fake data, ensuring the causal awareness in both training and sampling phases. We demonstrate CA-GAN superiority over six SOTA methods across 14 tabular datasets. Our evaluations, focused on core data engineering metrics: causal preservation, utility preservation, and privacy preservation. Our method offers a practical, high-performance solution for data engineers seeking to create high-quality, privacy-compliant synthetic datasets to benchmark database systems, accelerate software development, and facilitate secure data-driven research.

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