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Supriya Chinthavali

Publications and source records attributed to Supriya Chinthavali.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

GeoGNN: Time Series Geo-Localization using Two-Tower Graph Neural Networks

This paper investigates a novel concept of time series geolocalization, where the goal is to infer the geographic origin of each raw time series. Successful geolocalization can provide spatial context to time series, enabling downstream location-aware applications. We formalize the problem, adapt core ideas from image geolocalization to establish strong baselines, and propose GeoGNN, a two-tower architecture. During training, GeoGNN's spatial tower learns embeddings of geographic cell candidates by leveraging the geographic adjacency graph, while the temporal tower extracts informative representations from time series. During inference, each temporal representation is matched against candidate geographic embeddings using dot-product similarity, combined with an auxiliary classification head, to predict the time series' associated geographic origin. Experiments on large-scale, countrywide electricity-consumption datasets demonstrate that GeoGNN achieves the best performance across datasets and enhances both fine- and coarse-grained geolocalization accuracy by ~27% on average.

cs.LG

Correlating Power Outage Spread with Infrastructure Interdependencies During Hurricanes

Power outages caused by extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can significantly disrupt essential services and delay recovery efforts, underscoring the importance of enhancing our infrastructure's resilience. This study investigates the spread of power outages during hurricanes by analyzing the correlation between the network of critical infrastructure and outage propagation. We leveraged datasets from Hurricanemapping.com, the North American Energy Resilience Model Interdependency Analysis (NAERM-IA), and historical power outage data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)'s EAGLE-I system. Our analysis reveals a consistent positive correlation between the extent of critical infrastructure components accessible within a certain number of steps (k-hop distance) from initial impact areas and the occurrence of power outages in broader regions. This insight suggests that understanding the interconnectedness among critical infrastructure elements is key to identifying areas indirectly affected by extreme weather events.

cs.IR

Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce an epidemic curve with two timescales (e.g., fast growth and slow decay). The other is a compartmental model that accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating our models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting. We infer new significant upward trends for five of the metropolitan areas starting between 19-April-2020 and 12-June-2020.

q-bio.PE