arXiv subjects

Susan E. Thompson

Publications and source records attributed to Susan E. Thompson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2020

Sensitivity Analyses of Exoplanet Occurrence Rates from Kepler and Gaia

We infer the number of planets-per-star as a function of orbital period and planet size using $Kepler$ archival data products with updated stellar properties from the $Gaia$ Data Release 2. Using hierarchical Bayesian modeling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we incorporate planet radius uncertainties into an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model. We demonstrate that this model captures the general features of the outcome of the planet formation and evolution around GK stars, and provides an infrastructure to use the $Kepler$ results to constrain analytic planet distribution models. We report an increased mean and variance in the marginal posterior distributions for the number of planets per $GK$ star when including planet radius measurement uncertainties. We estimate the number of planets-per-$GK$ star between 0.75 and 2.5 $R_{\oplus}$ and 50 to 300 day orbital periods to have a $68\%$ credible interval of $0.49$ to $0.77$ and a posterior mean of $0.63$. This posterior has a smaller mean and a larger variance than the occurrence rate calculated in this work and in Burke et al. (2015) for the same parameter space using the $Q1-Q16$ (previous $Kepler$ planet candidate and stellar catalog). We attribute the smaller mean to many of the instrumental false positives at longer orbital periods being removed from the $DR25$ catalog. We find that the accuracy and precision of our hierarchical Bayesian model posterior distributions are less sensitive to the total number of planets in the sample, and more so on the characteristics of the catalog completeness and reliability and the span of the planet parameter space.

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arXiv2019

Kepler-62f: Kepler's First Small Planet in the Habitable Zone, but Is It Real?

Kepler-62f is the first exoplanet small enough to plausibly have a rocky composition orbiting within the habitable zone (HZ) discovered by the Kepler Mission. The planet is 1.4 times the size of the Earth and has an orbital period of 267 days. At the time of its discovery, it had the longest period of any small planet in the habitable zone of a multi-planet system. Because of its long period, only four transits were observed during Kepler's interval of observations. It was initially missed by the Kepler pipeline, but the first three transits were identified by an independent search by Eric Agol, and it was identified as a planet candidate in subsequent Kepler catalogs. However in the latest catalog of exoplanets (Thompson et al., 2018), it is labeled as a false positive. Recent exoplanet catalogues have evolved from subjective classification to automatic classifications of planet candidates by algorithms (such as `Robovetter'). While exceptionally useful for producing a uniform catalogue, these algorithms sometimes misclassify planet candidates as a false positive, as is the case of Kepler-62f. In particularly valuable cases, i.e., when a small planet has been found orbiting in the habitable zone (HZ), it is important to conduct comprehensive analyses of the data and classification protocols to provide the best estimate of the true status of the detection. In this paper we conduct such analyses and show that Kepler-62f is a true planet and not a false positive. The table of stellar and planet properties has been updated based on GAIA results.

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arXiv2019

Re-Evaluating Small Long-Period Confirmed Planets From Kepler

We re-examine the statistical confirmation of small long-period Kepler planet candidates in light of recent improvements in our understanding of the occurrence of systematic false alarms in this regime. Using the final Data Release 25 (DR25) Kepler planet candidate catalog statistics, we find that the previously confirmed single planet system Kepler-452b no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis and is not considered statistically validated in agreement with the finding of Mullally et al. (2018). For multiple planet systems, we find that the planet prior enhancement for belonging to a multiple planet system is suppressed relative to previous Kepler catalogs, and we identify the multi-planet system member, Kepler-186f, no longer achieves a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. Because of the numerous confounding factors in the data analysis process that leads to the detection and characterization of a signal, it is difficult to determine whether any one planetary candidate achieves a strict criterion for confirmation relative to systematic false alarms. For instance, when taking into account a simplified model of processing variations, the additional single planet systems Kepler-443b, Kepler-441b, Kepler-1633b, Kepler-1178b, and Kepler-1653b have a non-negligible probability of falling below a 99% confidence in the planetary hypothesis. The systematic false alarm hypothesis must be taken into account when employing statistical validation techniques in order to confirm planet candidates that approach the detection threshold of a survey. We encourage those performing transit searches of K2, TESS, and other similar data sets to quantify their systematic false alarms rates. Alternatively, independent photometric detection of the transit signal or radial velocity measurements can eliminate the false alarm hypothesis.

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arXiv2018

Kepler's Earth-like Planets Should Not Be Confirmed Without Independent Detection: The Case of Kepler-452b

We show that the claimed confirmed planet Kepler-452b (a.k.a. K07016.01, KIC 8311864) can not be confirmed using a purely statistical validation approach. Kepler detects many more periodic signals from instrumental effects than it does from transits, and it is likely impossible to confidently distinguish the two types of event at low signal-to-noise. As a result, the scenario that the observed signal is due to an instrumental artifact can't be ruled out with 99\% confidence, and the system must still be considered a candidate planet. We discuss the implications for other confirmed planets in or near the habitable zone.

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arXiv2018

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2017

White Dwarf Variability with gPhoton: Pulsators

We present results from a search for short time-scale white dwarf variability using \texttt{gPhoton}, a time-tagged database of \textit{GALEX} photon events and associated software package. We conducted a survey of $320$ white dwarf stars in the McCook-Sion catalogue, inspecting each for photometric variability with particular emphasis on variability over time-scales less than $\sim 30$ minutes. From that survey, we present the discovery of a new pulsating white dwarf: WD 2246-069. A Ca II K line is found in archival ESO spectra and an IR excess is seen in WISE $W1$ and $W2$ bands. Its independent modes are identified in follow-up optical photometry and used to model its interior structure. Additionally, we detect UV pulsations in four previously known pulsating ZZ Ceti-type (DAVs). Included in this group is the simultaneous fitting of the pulsations of WD 1401-147 in optical, near-ultraviolet and far-ultraviolet bands using nearly concurrent Whole Earth Telescope and \textit{GALEX} data, providing observational insight into the wavelength dependence of white dwarf pulsation amplitudes.

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arXiv2017

Three's Company: An additional non-transiting super-Earth in the bright HD 3167 system, and masses for all three planets

HD 3167 is a bright (V = 8.9), nearby K0 star observed by the NASA K2 mission (EPIC 220383386), hosting two small, short-period transiting planets. Here we present the results of a multi-site, multi-instrument radial velocity campaign to characterize the HD 3167 system. The masses of the transiting planets are 5.02+/-0.38 MEarth for HD 3167 b, a hot super-Earth with a likely rocky composition (rho_b = 5.60+2.15-1.43 g/cm^3), and 9.80+1.30-1.24 MEarth for HD 3167 c, a warm sub-Neptune with a likely substantial volatile complement (rho_c = 1.97+0.94-0.59 g/cm^3). We explore the possibility of atmospheric composition analysis and determine that planet c is amenable to transmission spectroscopy measurements, and planet b is a potential thermal emission target. We detect a third, non-transiting planet, HD 3167 d, with a period of 8.509+/-0.045 d (between planets b and c) and a minimum mass of 6.90+/-0.71 MEarth. We are able to constrain the mutual inclination of planet d with planets b and c: we rule out mutual inclinations below 1.3 degrees as we do not observe transits of planet d. From 1.3-40 degrees, there are viewing geometries invoking special nodal configurations which result in planet d not transiting some fraction of the time. From 40-60 degrees, Kozai-Lidov oscillations increase the system's instability, but it can remain stable for up to 100Myr. Above 60 degrees, the system is unstable. HD 3167 promises to be a fruitful system for further study and a preview of the many exciting systems expected from the upcoming NASA TESS mission.

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arXiv2016

Detection of Potential Transit Signals in 17 Quarters of Kepler Data: Results of the Final Kepler Mission Transiting Planet Search (DR25)

We present results of the final Kepler Data Processing Pipeline search for transiting planet signals in the full 17-quarter primary mission data set. The search includes a total of 198,709 stellar targets, of which 112,046 were observed in all 17 quarters and 86,663 in fewer than 17 quarters. We report on 17,230 targets for which at least one transit signature is identified that meets the specified detection criteria: periodicity, minimum of three observed transit events, detection statistic (i.e., signal-to-noise ratio) in excess of the search threshold, and passing grade on three statistical transit consistency tests. Light curves for which a transit signal is identified are iteratively searched for additional signatures after a limb-darkened transiting planet model is fitted to the data and transit events are removed. The search for additional planets adds 16,802 transit signals for a total of 34,032; this far exceeds the number of transit signatures identified in prior pipeline runs. There was a strategic emphasis on completeness over reliability for the final Kepler transit search. A comparison of the transit signals against a set of 3402 well-established, high-quality Kepler Objects of Interest yields a recovery rate of 99.8%. The high recovery rate must be weighed against a large number of false-alarm detections. We examine characteristics of the planet population implied by the transiting planet model fits with an emphasis on detections that would represent small planets orbiting in the habitable zone of their host stars.

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arXiv2016

Radial velocity monitoring of Kepler heartbeat stars

Heartbeat stars (HB stars) are a class of eccentric binary stars with close periastron passages. The characteristic photometric HB signal evident in their light curves is produced by a combination of tidal distortion, heating, and Doppler boosting near orbital periastron. Many HB stars continue to oscillate after periastron and along the entire orbit, indicative of the tidal excitation of oscillation modes within one or both stars. These systems are among the most eccentric binaries known, and they constitute astrophysical laboratories for the study of tidal effects. We have undertaken a radial velocity (RV) monitoring campaign of Kepler HB stars in order to measure their orbits. We present our first results here, including a sample of 21 Kepler HB systems, where for 19 of them we obtained the Keplerian orbit and for 3 other systems we did not detect a statistically significant RV variability. Results presented here are based on 218 spectra obtained with the Keck/HIRES spectrograph during the 2015 Kepler observing season, and they have allowed us to obtain the largest sample of HB stars with orbits measured using a single instrument, which roughly doubles the number of HB stars with an RV measured orbit. The 19 systems measured here have orbital periods from 7 to 90 d and eccentricities from 0.2 to 0.9. We show that HB stars draw the upper envelope of the eccentricity - period distribution. Therefore, HB stars likely represent a population of stars currently undergoing high eccentricity migration via tidal orbital circularization, and they will allow for new tests of high eccentricity migration theories.

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arXiv2016

KIC 3749404: A heartbeat Star with Rapid Apsidal Advance Indicative of a Tertiary Component

Heartbeat stars are eccentric (e > 0.2) ellipsoidal variables whose light curves resemble a cardiogram. We present the observations and corresponding model of KIC 3749404, a highly eccentric (e = 0.66), short period (P = 20.3 d) heartbeat star with tidally induced pulsations. A binary star model was created using PHOEBE, which we modified to include tidally induced pulsations and Doppler boosting. The morphology of the photometric periastron variation (heartbeat) depends strongly on the eccentricity, inclination and argument of periastron. We show that the inclusion of tidally induced pulsations in the model significantly changes the parameter values, specifically the inclination and those parameters dependent on it. Furthermore, we determine the rate of apsidal advance by modelling the periastron variation at the beginning and end of the 4-yr Kepler data set and dividing by the elapsed time. We compare the model with the theoretical expectations for classical and general relativistic apsidal motion and find the observed rate to be two orders of magnitude greater than the theoretical rate. We find that the observed rate cannot be explained by tidally induced pulsations alone and consequently hypothesise the presence of a third body in the system.

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arXiv2016

The K2 Ecliptic Plane Input Catalog (EPIC) and Stellar Classifications of 138,600 Targets in Campaigns 1-8

The K2 Mission uses the Kepler spacecraft to obtain high-precision photometry over ~80 day campaigns in the ecliptic plane. The Ecliptic Plane Input Catalog (EPIC) provides coordinates, photometry and kinematics based on a federation of all-sky catalogs to support target selection and target management for the K2 mission. We describe the construction of the EPIC, as well as modifications and shortcomings of the catalog. Kepler magnitudes (Kp) are shown to be accurate to ~0.1 mag for the Kepler field, and the EPIC is typically complete to Kp~17 (Kp~19 for campaigns covered by SDSS). We furthermore classify 138,600 targets in Campaigns 1-8 (~88% of the full target sample) using colors, proper motions, spectroscopy, parallaxes, and galactic population synthesis models, with typical uncertainties for G-type stars of ~3% in Teff, ~0.3 dex in log(g), ~40% in radius, ~10% in mass, and ~40% in distance. Our results show that stars targeted by K2 are dominated by K-M dwarfs (~41% of all selected targets), F-G dwarfs (~36%) and K giants (~21%), consistent with key K2 science programs to search for transiting exoplanets and galactic archeology studies using oscillating red giants. However, we find a significant variation of the fraction of cool dwarfs with galactic latitude, indicating a target selection bias due to interstellar reddening and the increased contamination by giant stars near the galactic plane. We discuss possible systematic errors in the derived stellar properties, and differences to published classifications for K2 exoplanet host stars. The EPIC is hosted at the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST): http://archive.stsci.edu/k2/epic/search.php.

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arXiv2016

Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline. III. Completeness of the Q1-Q17 DR24 Planet Candidate Catalogue, with Important Caveats for Occurrence Rate Calculations

With each new version of the Kepler pipeline and resulting planet candidate catalogue, an updated measurement of the underlying planet population can only be recovered with an corresponding measurement of the Kepler pipeline detection efficiency. Here, we present measurements of the sensitivity of the pipeline (version 9.2) used to generate the Q1-Q17 DR24 planet candidate catalog (Coughlin et al. 2016). We measure this by injecting simulated transiting planets into the pixel-level data of 159,013 targets across the entire Kepler focal plane, and examining the recovery rate. Unlike previous versions of the Kepler pipeline, we find a strong period dependence in the measured detection efficiency, with longer (>40 day) periods having a significantly lower detectability than shorter periods, introduced in part by an incorrectly implemented veto. Consequently, the sensitivity of the 9.2 pipeline cannot be cast as a simple one-dimensional function of the signal strength of the candidate planet signal as was possible for previous versions of the pipeline. We report on the implications for occurrence rate calculations based on the Q1-Q17 DR24 planet candidate catalog and offer important caveats and recommendations for performing such calculations. As before, we make available the entire table of injected planet parameters and whether they were recovered by the pipeline, enabling readers to derive the pipeline detection sensitivity in the planet and/or stellar parameter space of their choice.

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arXiv2016

That's How We Roll: The NASA K2 Mission Science Products and Their Performance Metrics

NASA's exoplanet Discovery mission Kepler was reconstituted as the K2 mission a year after the failure of the 2nd of Kepler's 4 reaction wheels in May 2013. The new spacecraft pointing method now gives typical roll motion of 1.0 pixels peak-to-peak over 6 hours at the edges of the field, two orders of magnitude greater than for Kepler. Despite these roll errors, the flight system and its modified science data processing pipeline restores much of the photometric precision of the primary mission while viewing a wide variety of targets, thus turning adversity into diversity. We define metrics for data compression and pixel budget available in each campaign; the photometric noise on exoplanet transit and stellar activity time scales; residual correlations in corrected long cadence light curves; and the protection of test sinusoidal signals from overfitting in the systematic error removal process. We find that data compression and noise both increase linearly with radial distance from the center of the field of view, with the data compression proportional to star count as well. At the center, where roll motion is nearly negligible, the limiting 6 hour photometric precision for a quiet 12th magnitude star can be as low as 30 ppm, only 25% higher than that of Kepler. This noise performance is achieved without sacrificing signal fidelity; test sinusoids injected into the data are attenuated by less than 10% for signals with periods up 15 days. At time scales relevant to asteroseismology, light curves derived from K2 archive calibrated pixels have high-frequency noise amplitude within 40% of that achieved by Kepler. The improvements in K2 operations and science data analysis resulting from 1.5 yr of experience with this new mission concept, and quantified by the metrics in this paper, will support continuation of K2's already high level of scientific productivity in an extended K2 mission.

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arXiv2016

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VII. The First Fully Uniform Catalog Based on The Entire 48 Month Dataset (Q1-Q17 DR24)

We present the seventh Kepler planet candidate catalog, which is the first to be based on the entire, uniformly processed, 48 month Kepler dataset. This is the first fully automated catalog, employing robotic vetting procedures to uniformly evaluate every periodic signal detected by the Q1-Q17 Data Release 24 (DR24) Kepler pipeline. While we prioritize uniform vetting over the absolute correctness of individual objects, we find that our robotic vetting is overall comparable to, and in most cases is superior to, the human vetting procedures employed by past catalogs. This catalog is the first to utilize artificial transit injection to evaluate the performance of our vetting procedures and quantify potential biases, which are essential for accurate computation of planetary occurrence rates. With respect to the cumulative Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog, we designate 1,478 new KOIs, of which 402 are dispositioned as planet candidates (PCs). Also, 237 KOIs dispositioned as false positives (FPs) in previous Kepler catalogs have their disposition changed to PC and 118 PCs have their disposition changed to FP. This brings the total number of known KOIs to 8,826 and PCs to 4,696. We compare the Q1-Q17 DR24 KOI catalog to previous KOI catalogs, as well as ancillary Kepler catalogs, finding good agreement between them. We highlight new PCs that are both potentially rocky and potentially in the habitable zone of their host stars, many of which orbit solar-type stars. This work represents significant progress in accurately determining the fraction of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The full catalog is publicly available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.

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arXiv2016

Identifying False Alarms in the Kepler Planet Candidate Catalog

We present a new automated method to identify instrumental features masquerading as small, long period planets in the \kepler\ planet candidate catalog. These systematics, mistakenly identified as planet transits, can have a strong impact on occurrence rate calculations because they cluster in a region of parameter space where Kepler's sensitivity to planets is poor. We compare individual transit-like events to a variety of models of real transits and systematic events, and use a Bayesian Information Criterion to evaluate the likelihood that each event is real. We describe our technique and test its performance on simulated data. Results from this technique are incorporated in the \kepler\ Q1-17 DR24 planet candidate catalog of \citet{Coughlin15}.

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arXiv2015

Kepler Eclipsing Binary Stars. VII. The Catalog of Eclipsing Binaries Found in the Entire Kepler Data-Set

The primary Kepler Mission provided nearly continuous monitoring of ~200,000 objects with unprecedented photometric precision. We present the final catalog of eclipsing binary systems within the 105 square degree Kepler field of view. This release incorporates the full extent of the data from the primary mission (Q0-Q17 Data Release). As a result, new systems have been added, additional false positives have been removed, ephemerides and principal parameters have been recomputed, classifications have been revised to rely on analytical models, and eclipse timing variations have been computed for each system. We identify several classes of systems including those that exhibit tertiary eclipse events, systems that show clear evidence of additional bodies, heartbeat systems, systems with changing eclipse depths, and systems exhibiting only one eclipse event over the duration of the mission. We have updated the period and galactic latitude distribution diagrams and included a catalog completeness evaluation. The total number of identified eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems in the Kepler field of view has increased to 2878, 1.3% of all observed Kepler targets. An online version of this catalog with downloadable content and visualization tools is maintained at http://keplerEBs.villanova.edu.

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arXiv2015

A Machine Learning Technique to Identify Transit Shaped Signals

We describe a new metric that uses machine learning to determine if a periodic signal found in a photometric time series appears to be shaped like the signature of a transiting exoplanet. This metric uses dimensionality reduction and k-nearest neighbors to determine whether a given signal is sufficiently similar to known transits in the same data set. This metric is being used by the Kepler Robovetter to determine which signals should be part of the Q1-Q17 DR24 catalog of planetary candidates. The Kepler Mission reports roughly 20,000 potential transiting signals with each run of its pipeline, yet only a few thousand appear sufficiently transit shaped to be part of the catalog. The other signals tend to be variable stars and instrumental noise. With this metric we are able to remove more than 90% of the non-transiting signals while retaining more than 99% of the known planet candidates. When tested with injected transits, less than 1% are lost. This metric will enable the Kepler mission and future missions looking for transiting planets to rapidly and consistently find the best planetary candidates for follow-up and cataloging.

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arXiv2015

Measuring Transit Signal Recovery in the Kepler Pipeline II: Detection Efficiency as Calculated in One Year of Data

The Kepler planet sample can only be used to reconstruct the underlying planet occurrence rate if the detection efficiency of the Kepler pipeline is known, here we present the results of a second experiment aimed at characterising this detection efficiency. We inject simulated transiting planet signals into the pixel data of ~10,000 targets, spanning one year of observations, and process the pixels as normal. We compare the set of detections made by the pipeline with the expectation from the set of simulated planets, and construct a sensitivity curve of signal recovery as a function of the signal-to-noise of the simulated transit signal train. The sensitivity curve does not meet the hypothetical maximum detection efficiency, however it is not as pessimistic as some of the published estimates of the detection efficiency. For the FGK stars in our sample, the sensitivity curve is well fit by a gamma function with the coefficients a = 4.35 and b = 1.05. We also find that the pipeline algorithms recover the depths and periods of the injected signals with very high fidelity, especially for periods longer than 10 days. We perform a simplified occurrence rate calculation using the measured detection efficiency compared to previous assumptions of the detection efficiency found in the literature to demonstrate the systematic error introduced into the resulting occurrence rates. The discrepancies in the calculated occurrence rates may go some way towards reconciling some of the inconsistencies found in the literature.

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