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Suzanne Aigrain

Publications and source records attributed to Suzanne Aigrain.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2024

Modelling stellar variability in archival HARPS data: I -- Rotation and activity properties with multi-dimensional Gaussian Processes

Although instruments for measuring the radial velocities (RVs) of stars now routinely reach sub-meter per second accuracy, the detection of low-mass planets is still very challenging. The rotational modulation and evolution of spots and/or faculae can induce variations in the RVs at the level of a few m/s in Sun-like stars. To overcome this, a multi-dimensional Gaussian Process framework has been developed to model the stellar activity signal using spectroscopic activity indicators together with the RVs. A recently published computationally efficient implementation of this framework, S+LEAF 2, enables the rapid analysis of large samples of targets with sizeable data sets. In this work, we apply this framework to HARPS observations of 268 well-observed targets with precisely determined stellar parameters. Our long-term goal is to quantify the effectiveness of this framework to model and mitigate activity signals for stars of different spectral types and activity levels. In this first paper in the series, we initially focus on the activity indicators (S-index and Bisector Inverse Slope), and use them to a) measure rotation periods for 49 slow rotators in our sample, b) explore the impact of these results on the spin-down of middle-aged late F, G & K stars, and c) explore indirectly how the spot to facular ratio varies across our sample. Our results should provide valuable clues for planning future RV planet surveys such as the Terra Hunting Experiment or the PLATO ground-based follow-up observations program, and help fine-tune current stellar structure and evolution models.

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arXiv2023

Transit Timing Variations in the three-planet system: TOI-270

We present ground and space-based photometric observations of TOI-270 (L231-32), a system of three transiting planets consisting of one super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes discovered by TESS around a bright (K-mag=8.25) M3V dwarf. The planets orbit near low-order mean-motion resonances (5:3 and 2:1), and are thus expected to exhibit large transit timing variations (TTVs). Following an extensive observing campaign using 8 different observatories between 2018 and 2020, we now report a clear detection of TTVs for planets c and d, with amplitudes of $\sim$10 minutes and a super-period of $\sim$3 years, as well as significantly refined estimates of the radii and mean orbital periods of all three planets. Dynamical modeling of the TTVs alone puts strong constraints on the mass ratio of planets c and d and on their eccentricities. When incorporating recently published constraints from radial velocity observations, we obtain masses of $M_{\mathrm{b}}=1.48\pm0.18\,M_\oplus$, $M_{c}=6.20\pm0.31\,M_\oplus$ and $M_{\mathrm{d}}=4.20\pm0.16\,M_\oplus$ for planets b, c and d, respectively. We also detect small, but significant eccentricities for all three planets : $e_\mathrm{b} =0.0167\pm0.0084$, $e_{c} =0.0044\pm0.0006$ and $e_{d} = 0.0066\pm0.0020$. Our findings imply an Earth-like rocky composition for the inner planet, and Earth-like cores with an additional He/H$_2$O atmosphere for the outer two. TOI-270 is now one of the best-constrained systems of small transiting planets, and it remains an excellent target for atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2023

Revisiting K2-233 spectroscopic time-series with multidimensional Gaussian Processes

Detecting planetary signatures in radial velocity time-series of young stars is challenging due to their inherently strong stellar activity. However, it is possible to learn information about the properties of the stellar signal by using activity indicators measured from the same stellar spectra used to extract radial velocities. In this manuscript, we present a reanalysis of spectroscopic HARPS data of the young star K2-233, which hosts three transiting planets. We perform a multidimensional Gaussian Process regression on the radial velocity and the activity indicators to characterise the planetary Doppler signals. We demonstrate, for the first time on a real dataset, that the use of a multidimensional Gaussian Process can boost the precision with which we measure the planetary signals compared to a one-dimensional Gaussian Process applied to the radial velocities alone. We measure the semi-amplitudes of K2-233 b, c, and d as 1.31(-0.74)(+0.81), 1.81(-0.67)(+0.71), and 2.72(-0.70)(+0.66) m/s, which translates into planetary masses of 2.4(-1.3)(+1.5), 4.6(-1.7)(+1.8), and 10.3(-2.6)(+2.4), respectively. These new mass measurements make K2-233 d a valuable target for transmission spectroscopy observations with JWST. K2-233 is the only young system with two detected inner planets below the radius valley and a third outer planet above it. This makes it an excellent target to perform comparative studies, to inform our theories of planet evolution, formation, migration, and atmospheric evolution.

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arXiv2022

Gaussian Process regression for astronomical time-series

The last two decades have seen a major expansion in the availability, size, and precision of time-domain datasets in astronomy. Owing to their unique combination of flexibility, mathematical simplicity and comparative robustness, Gaussian Processes (GPs) have emerged recently as the solution of choice to model stochastic signals in such datasets. In this review we provide a brief introduction to the emergence of GPs in astronomy, present the underlying mathematical theory, and give practical advice considering the key modelling choices involved in GP regression. We then review applications of GPs to time-domain datasets in the astrophysical literature so far, from exoplanets to active galactic nuclei, showcasing the power and flexibility of the method. We provide worked examples using simulated data, with links to the source code, discuss the problem of computational cost and scalability, and give a snapshot of the current ecosystem of open source GP software packages. Driven by further algorithmic and conceptual advances, we expect that GPs will continue to be an important tool for robust and interpretable time domain astronomy for many years to come.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2022

Quasi-periodic Gaussian Processes for stellar activity: from physical to kernel parameters

In recent years, Gaussian Process (GP) regression has become widely used to analyse stellar and exoplanet time-series data sets. For spotted stars, the most popular GP covariance function is the quasi-periodic (QP) kernel, whose the hyperparameters of the GP have a plausible interpretation in terms of physical properties of the star and spots. In this paper, we test the reliability of this interpretation by modelling data simulated using a spot model using a QP GP, and the recently proposed quasi-periodic plus cosine (QPC) GP, comparing the posterior distributions of the GP hyperparameters to the input parameters of the spot model. We find excellent agreement between the input stellar rotation period and the QP and QPC GP period, and very good agreement between the spot decay timescale and the length scale of the squared exponential term. We also compare the hyperparameters derived from light and radial velocity (RV) curves for a given star, finding that the period and evolution timescales are in good agreement. However, the harmonic complexity of the GP, while displaying no clear correlation with the spot properties in our simulations, is systematically higher for the RV than for the light curve data. Finally, for the QP kernel, we investigate the impact of noise and time-sampling on the hyperparameters in the case of RVs. Our results indicate that good coverage of rotation period and spot evolution time-scales is more important than the total number of points, and noise characteristics govern the harmonic complexity.

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arXiv2022

Applications of a Gaussian Process Framework for Modelling of High-Resolution Exoplanet Spectra

Observations of exoplanet atmospheres in high resolution have the potential to resolve individual planetary absorption lines, despite the issues associated with ground-based observations. The removal of contaminating stellar and telluric absorption features is one of the most sensitive steps required to reveal the planetary spectrum and, while many different detrending methods exist, it remains difficult to directly compare the performance and efficacy of these methods. Additionally, though the standard cross-correlation method enables robust detection of specific atmospheric species, it only probes for features that are expected a priori. Here we present a novel methodology using Gaussian process (GP) regression to directly model the components of high-resolution spectra, which partially addresses these issues. We use two archival CRIRES/VLT data sets as test cases, observations of the hot Jupiters HD 189733 b and 51 Pegasi b, recovering injected signals with average line contrast ratios of $\sim 4.37 \times 10^{-3}$ and $\sim 1.39 \times 10^{-3}$, and planet radial velocities $ΔK_\mathrm{p} =1.45 \pm 1.53\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$ and $ΔK_\mathrm{p}=0.12\pm0.12\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$ from the injection velocities respectively. In addition, we demonstrate an application of the GP method to assess the impact of the detrending process on the planetary spectrum, by implementing injection-recovery tests. We show that standard detrending methods used in the literature negatively affect the amplitudes of absorption features in particular, which has the potential to render retrieval analyses inaccurate. Finally, we discuss possible limiting factors for the non-detections using this method, likely to be remedied by higher signal-to-noise data.

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arXiv2022

One year of AU Mic with HARPS: II -- stellar activity and star-planet interaction

We present a spectroscopic analysis of a 1-year intensive monitoring campaign of the 22-Myr old planet-hosting M dwarf AU Mic using the HARPS spectrograph. In a companion paper, we reported detections of the planet radial velocity (RV) signatures of the two close-in transiting planets of the system, with respective semi-amplitudes of 5.8 $\pm$ 2.5 m/s and 8.5 $\pm$ 2.5 m/s for AU Mic b and AU Mic c. Here, we perform an independent measurement of the RV semi-amplitude of AU Mic c using Doppler imaging to simultaneously model the activity-induced distortions and the planet-induced shifts in the line profiles. The resulting semi-amplitude of 13.3 $\pm$ 4.1 m/s for AU Mic c reinforces the idea that the planet features a surprisingly large inner density, in tension with current standard models of core accretion. Our brightness maps feature significantly higher spot coverage and lower level of differential rotation than the brightness maps obtained in late 2019 with the SPIRou spectropolarimeter, suggesting that the stellar magnetic activity has evolved dramatically over a $\sim$1-yr time span. Additionally, we report a 3-$σ$ detection of a modulation at 8.33 $\pm$ 0.04 d of the He I D3 (587.562 nm) emission flux, close to the 8.46-d orbital period of AU Mic b. The power of this emission (a few 10$^{17}$ W) is consistent with 3D magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between stellar wind and the close-in planet if the latter hosts a magnetic field of $\sim$10 G. Spectropolarimetric observations of the star are needed to firmly elucidate the origin of the observed chromospheric variability.

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arXiv2022

One year of AU Mic with HARPS: I -- measuring the masses of the two transiting planets

The system of two transiting Neptune-sized planets around the bright, young M-dwarf AU Mic provides a unique opportunity to test models of planet formation, early evolution, and star-planet interaction. However, the intense magnetic activity of the host star makes measuring the masses of the planets via the radial velocity (RV) method very challenging. We report on a 1-year, intensive monitoring campaign of the system using 91 observations with the HARPS spectrograph, allowing for detailed modelling of the $\sim 600\, \rm{m\,s^{-1}}$ peak-to-peak activity-induced RV variations. We used a multidimensional Gaussian Process framework to model these and the planetary signals simultaneously. We detect the latter with semi-amplitudes of $\rm{K_b} = 5.8 \pm 2.5\, \rm{m\,s^{-1}}$ and $\rm{K_c} = 8.5 \pm 2.5\, \rm{m\, s^{-1}}$, respectively. The resulting mass estimates, $\rm{M_b} = 11.7 \pm 5.0\, \rm{M_{\rm \oplus}}$ and $\rm{M_c} = 22.2 \pm 6.7\, \rm{M_{\rm \oplus}}$, suggest that planet b might be less dense, and planet c considerably denser than previously thought. These results are in tension with the current standard models of core-accretion. They suggest that both planets accreted a H/He envelope that is smaller than expected, and the trend between the two planets' envelope fractions is the opposite of what is predicted by theory.

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arXiv2022

Planet Hunters TESS IV: A massive, compact hierarchical triple star system TIC 470710327

We report the discovery and analysis of a massive, compact, hierarchical triple system (TIC 470710327) initially identified by citizen scientists in data obtained by NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Spectroscopic follow-up observations obtained with the HERMES spectrograph, combined with eclipse timing variations (ETVs), confirm that the system is comprised of three OB stars, with a compact 1.10 d eclipsing binary and a non-eclipsing tertiary on a 52.04 d orbit. Dynamical modelling of the system (from radial velocity and ETVs) reveal a rare configuration wherein the tertiary star (O9.5-B0.5V; 14-17 M$_{\odot}$) is more massive than the combined mass of the inner binary (10.9-13.2 M$_{\odot}$). Given the high mass of the tertiary, we predict that this system will undergo multiple phases of mass transfer in the future, and likely end up as a double neutron star gravitational wave progenitor or an exotic Thorne-Zytkow object. Further observational characterisation of this system promises constraints on both formation scenarios of massive stars as well as their exotic evolutionary end-products.

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arXiv2022

The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project II. State of the Field in Disentangling Photospheric Velocities

Measured spectral shifts due to intrinsic stellar variability (e.g., pulsations, granulation) and activity (e.g., spots, plages) are the largest source of error for extreme precision radial velocity (EPRV) exoplanet detection. Several methods are designed to disentangle stellar signals from true center-of-mass shifts due to planets. The EXPRES Stellar Signals Project (ESSP) presents a self-consistent comparison of 22 different methods tested on the same extreme-precision spectroscopic data from EXPRES. Methods derived new activity indicators, constructed models for mapping an indicator to the needed RV correction, or separated out shape- and shift-driven RV components. Since no ground truth is known when using real data, relative method performance is assessed using the total and nightly scatter of returned RVs and agreement between the results of different methods. Nearly all submitted methods return a lower RV RMS than classic linear decorrelation, but no method is yet consistently reducing the RV RMS to sub-meter-per-second levels. There is a concerning lack of agreement between the RVs returned by different methods. These results suggest that continued progress in this field necessitates increased interpretability of methods, high-cadence data to capture stellar signals at all timescales, and continued tests like the ESSP using consistent data sets with more advanced metrics for method performance. Future comparisons should make use of various well-characterized data sets -- such as solar data or data with known injected planetary and/or stellar signals -- to better understand method performance and whether planetary signals are preserved.

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arXiv2021

pyaneti II: A multidimensional Gaussian process approach to analysing spectroscopic time-series

The two most successful methods for exoplanet detection rely on the detection of planetary signals in photometric and radial velocity time-series. This depends on numerical techniques that exploit the synergy between data and theory to estimate planetary, orbital, and/or stellar parameters. In this work, we present a new version of the exoplanet modelling code pyaneti. This new release has a special emphasis on the modelling of stellar signals in radial velocity time-series. The code has a built-in multidimensional Gaussian process approach to modelling radial velocity and activity indicator time-series with different underlying covariance functions. This new version of the code also allows multi-band and single transit modelling; it runs on Python 3, and features overall improvements in performance. We describe the new implementation and provide tests to validate the new routines that have direct application to validate the new routines that have direct application to exoplanet detection and characterisation. We have made the code public and freely available at https://github.com/oscaribv/pyaneti. We also present the codes citlalicue and citlalatonac that allow one to create synthetic photometric and spectroscopic time-series, respectively, with planetary and stellar-like signals.

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arXiv2021

How Does Thermal Scattering Shape the Infrared Spectra of Cloudy Exoplanets? A Theoretical Framework and Consequences for Atmospheric Retrievals in the JWST era

Observational studies of exoplanets are suggestive of a ubiquitous presence of clouds. The current modelling techniques used in emission to account for the clouds tend to require prior knowledge of the cloud condensing species and often do not consider the scattering effects of the cloud. We explore the effects that thermal scattering has on the emission spectra by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter atmospheres with varying cloud single-scattering albedos (SSAs) and temperature profiles. We examine cases ranging from simple isothermal conditions to more complex structures and physically driven cloud modelling. We show that scattering from nightside clouds would lead to brightness temperatures that are cooler than the real atmospheric temperature if scattering is unaccounted for. We show that scattering can produce spectral signatures in the emission spectrum even for isothermal atmospheres. We identify the retrieval degeneracies and biases that arise in the context of simulated JWST spectra when the scattering from the clouds dominates the spectral shape. Finally, we propose a novel method of fitting the SSA spectrum of the cloud in emission retrievals, using a technique that does not require any prior knowledge of the cloud chemical or physical properties.

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arXiv2021

Planet Hunters TESS III: two transiting planets around the bright G dwarf HD 152843

We report on the discovery and validation of a two-planet system around a bright (V = 8.85 mag) early G dwarf (1.43 $R_{\odot}$, 1.15 $M_{\odot}$, TOI 2319) using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Three transit events from two planets were detected by citizen scientists in the month-long TESS light curve (sector 25), as part of the Planet Hunters TESS project. Modelling of the transits yields an orbital period of \Pb\ and radius of $3.41 _{ - 0.12 } ^ { + 0.14 }$ $R_{\oplus}$ for the inner planet, and a period in the range 19.26-35 days and a radius of $5.83 _{ - 0.14 } ^ { + 0.14 }$ $R_{\oplus}$ for the outer planet, which was only seen to transit once. Each signal was independently statistically validated, taking into consideration the TESS light curve as well as the ground-based spectroscopic follow-up observations. Radial velocities from HARPS-N and EXPRES yield a tentative detection of planet b, whose mass we estimate to be $11.56 _{ - 6.14 } ^ { + 6.58 }$ $M_{\oplus}$, and allow us to place an upper limit of $27.5$ $M_{\oplus}$ (99 per cent confidence) on the mass of planet c. Due to the brightness of the host star and the strong likelihood of an extended H/He atmosphere on both planets, this system offers excellent prospects for atmospheric characterisation and comparative planetology.

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arXiv2021

TESS re-observes the young multi-planet system TOI-451: refined ephemeris and activity evolution

We present a new analysis of the light curve of the young planet-hosting star TOI 451 in the light of new observations from TESS Cycle 3. Our joint analysis of the transits of all three planets, using all available TESS data, results in an improved ephemeris for TOI 451 b and TOI 451 c, which will help to plan follow-up observations. The updated mid-transit times are $\textrm{BJD}-2,457\,000=$ $1410.9896_{ - 0.0029 }^{ + 0.0032 }$, $1411.7982_{-0.0020}^{+0.0022}$, and $1416.63407_{-0.00100}^{+0.00096}$ for TOI 451 b, c, and d, respectively, and the periods are $1.8587028_{-10e-06}^{+08e-06}$, $9.192453_{-3.3e-05}^{+4.1e-05}$, and $16.364932_{-3.5e-05}^{+3.6e-05 }$ days. We also model the out-of-transit light curve using a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic kernel and infer a change in the properties of the active regions on the surface of TOI 451 between TESS Cycles 1 and 3.

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arXiv2021

A self-lensing binary massive black hole interpretation of quasi-periodic eruptions

Binary supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems result from galaxy mergers, and will eventually coalesce due to gravitational wave (GW) emission if the binary separation can be reduced to $\lesssim 0.1$ pc by other mechanisms. Here, we explore a gravitational self-lensing binary SMBH model for the sharp (duration $\sim 1$ hr), quasi-regular X-ray flares -- dubbed quasi-periodic eruptions -- recently observed from two low mass active galactic nuclei: GSN 069 and RX J1301.9+2747. In our model, the binary is observed $\sim$edge-on, such that each SMBH gravitationally lenses light from the accretion disc surrounding the other SMBH twice per orbital period. The model can reproduce the flare spacings if the current eccentricity of RX J1301.9+2747 is $ε_0 \gtrsim 0.16$, implying a merger within $\sim 1000$ yrs. However, we cannot reproduce the observed flare profiles with our current calculations. Model flares with the correct amplitude are $\sim 2/5$ the observed duration, and model flares with the correct duration are $\sim 2/5$ the observed amplitude. Our modelling yields three distinct behaviours of self-lensing binary systems that can be searched for in current and future X-ray and optical time-domain surveys: i) periodic lensing flares, ii) partial eclipses (caused by occultation of the background mini-disc by the foreground mini-disc), and iii) partial eclipses with a very sharp in-eclipse lensing flare. Discovery of such features would constitute very strong evidence for the presence of a supermassive binary, and monitoring of the flare spacings will provide a measurement of periastron precession.

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arXiv2020

Planet Hunters TESS II: Findings from the first two years of TESS

We present the results from the first two years of the Planet Hunters TESS citizen science project, which identifies planet candidates in the TESS data by engaging members of the general public. Over 22,000 citizen scientists from around the world visually inspected the first 26 Sectors of TESS data in order to help identify transit-like signals. We use a clustering algorithm to combine these classifications into a ranked list of events for each sector, the top 500 of which are then visually vetted by the science team. We assess the detection efficiency of this methodology by comparing our results to the list of TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs) and show that we recover 85 % of the TOIs with radii greater than 4 Earth radii and 51 % of those with radii between 3 and 4 Earth radii. Additionally, we present our 90 most promising planet candidates that had not previously been identified by other teams, 73 of which exhibit only a single transit event in the TESS light curve, and outline our efforts to follow these candidates up using ground-based observatories. Finally, we present noteworthy stellar systems that were identified through the Planet Hunters TESS project.

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arXiv2020

Pleiades or Not? Resolving the Status of the Lithium Rich M Dwarfs HHJ339 and HHJ430

Oppenheimer et al. (1997) discovered two M5 dwarfs in the Pleiades with nearly primordial lithium. These stars are not low enough in mass to represent the leading edge of the lithium depletion boundary at Pleiades age (~125 Myr). A possible explanation for the enhanced lithium in these stars is that they are actually not members of the Pleiades but instead are members of a younger moving group seen in projection towards the Pleiades. We have used data from Gaia DR2 to confirm that these two stars, HHJ 339 and HHJ 430, are indeed not members of the Pleiades. Based on their space motions, parallaxes and positions in a Gaia-based CMD, it is probable that these two stars are about 40 parsecs foreground to the Pleiades and have ages of ~25 Myr. Kinematically they are best matched to the 32 Ori moving group.

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arXiv2020

Mon-735: A new low-mass pre-main sequence eclipsing binary in NGC 2264

We present Mon-735, a detached double-lined eclipsing binary (EB) member of the $\sim$3 Myr old NGC 2264 star forming region, detected by Spitzer. We simultaneously model the Spitzer light curves, follow-up Keck/HIRES radial velocities, and the system's spectral energy distribution to determine self-consistent masses, radii and effective temperatures for both stars. We find that Mon-735 comprises two pre-main sequence M dwarfs with component masses of $M = 0.2918 \pm 0.0099$ and $0.2661 \pm 0.0095$ $\rm{M}_{\odot}$, radii of $R = 0.762 \pm 0.022$ and $0.748 \pm 0.023$ $\rm{R}_{\odot}$, and effective temperatures of $T_{\rm eff} = 3260 \pm 73$ and $3213 \pm 73$ $\rm{K}$. The two stars travel on circular orbits around their common centre of mass in $P = 1.9751388 \pm 0.0000050$ days. We compare our results for Mon-735, along with another EB in NGC 2264 (CoRoT 223992193), to the predictions of five stellar evolution models. These suggest that the lower mass EB system Mon-735 is older than CoRoT 223992193 in the mass-radius diagram (MRD) and, to a lesser extent, in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD). The MRD ages of Mon-735 and CoRoT 223992193 are $\sim$7-9 and 4-6 Myr, respectively, with the two components in each EB system possessing consistent ages.

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