arXiv subjects

Sven Banisch

Publications and source records attributed to Sven Banisch.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Mean-field analysis for cognitively-grounded opinion dynamics with confirmation bias

Understanding how individuals' beliefs and attitudes evolve within a population is crucial for explaining social phenomena such as polarization and consensus formation. We explore a persuasive arguments model incorporating confirmation bias, where individuals preferentially accept information aligning with their existing beliefs. By employing a mean-field approach, widely used in statistical physics, we simplify complex processes of argument exchange within the population. Our analysis proceeds by projecting the model onto continuous opinion dynamics and further reducing it through mean-field reasoning. The findings highlight the robustness of mean-field predictions and their compatibility with agent-based simulations, capturing the transition from consensus to polarization induced by confirmation bias.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

A dynamical model of platform choice and online segregation

In order to truly understand how social media might shape online discourses or contribute to societal polarization, we need refined models of platform choice, that is: models that help us understand why users prefer one social media platform over another. This study develops a dynamic model of platform selection, extending Social Feedback Theory by incorporating multi-agent reinforcement learning to capture how user decisions are shaped by past rewards across different platforms. A key parameter ($\mu$) in the model governs users' tendencies to either seek approval from like-minded peers or engage with opposing views. Our findings reveal that online environments can evolve into suboptimal states characterized by polarized, strongly opinionated echo chambers, even when users prefer diverse perspectives. Interestingly, this polarizing state coexists with another equilibrium, where users gravitate toward a single dominant platform, marginalizing other platforms into extremity. Using agent-based simulations and dynamical systems analysis, our model underscores the complex interplay of user preferences and platform dynamics, offering insights into how digital spaces might be better managed to foster diverse discourse.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2023

Validating argument-based opinion dynamics with survey experiments

The empirical validation of models remains one of the most important challenges in opinion dynamics. In this contribution, we report on recent developments on combining data from survey experiments with computational models of opinion formation. We extend previous work on the empirical assessment of an argument-based model for opinion dynamics in which biased processing is the principle mechanism. While previous work (Banisch & Shamon, in press) has focused on calibrating the micro mechanism with experimental data on argument-induced opinion change, this paper concentrates on the macro level using the empirical data gathered in the survey experiment. For this purpose, the argument model is extended by an external source of balanced information which allows to control for the impact of peer influence processes relative to other noisy processes. We show that surveyed opinion distributions are matched with a high level of accuracy in a specific region in the parameter space, indicating an equal impact of social influence and external noise. More importantly, the estimated strength of biased processing given the macro data is compatible with those values that achieve high likelihood at the micro level. The main contribution of the paper is hence to show that the extended argument-based model provides a solid bridge from the micro processes of argument-induced attitude change to macro level opinion distributions. Beyond that, we review the development of argument-based models and present a new method for the automated classification of model outcomes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Order-disorder transition in the zero-temperature Ising model on random graphs

The zero-temperature Ising model is known to reach a fully ordered ground state in sufficiently dense random graphs. In sparse random graphs, the dynamics gets absorbed in disordered local minima at magnetization close to zero. Here, we find that the non-equilibrium transition between the ordered and the disordered regime occurs at an average degree that slowly grows with the graph size. The system shows bistability: The distribution of the absolute magnetization in the reached absorbing state is bimodal, with peaks only at zero and unity. For a fixed system size, the average time to absorption behaves nonmonotonically as a function of average degree. The peak value of the average absorption time grows as a power law of the system size. These findings have relevance for community detection, opinion dynamics, and games on networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

How opinions get more extreme in an age of information abundance

We live in an age of information abundance but know little about how this influences our opinions or attitudes. A common expectation is that people consulting numerous pieces of information, well balancing the different sides of an issue, will adopt a moderate attitude about the issue. We claim that this expectation is deceitful and suggest that people tend to get extreme and dogmatic about an issue when they consult abundant unbiased information. The cause for this extremization is a hardening confirmation bias -- when their attitude gets more extreme, people get more likely to ignore information that differs from their views. Our claim is based on simulations of two fundamentally different computational models: a Bounded Confidence model and an empirically calibrated Persuasive Argument model. For both models, the attitude tends to be extreme when the computational agent consults abundant unbiased information. We analyze the extremization pathways displayed in the models and discuss how our results may affect views on polarization, and on the role of online media.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Biased processing and opinion polarization: experimental refinement of argument communication theory in the context of the energy debate

In sociological research, the study of macro processes, such as opinion polarization, faces a fundamental problem, the so-called micro-macro problem. To overcome this problem, we combine empirical experimental research on biased argument processing with a computational theory of group deliberation in order to clarify the role of biased processing in debates around energy. The experiment reveals a strong tendency to consider arguments aligned with the current attitude more persuasive and to downgrade those speaking against it. This is integrated into the framework of argument communication theory in which agents exchange arguments about a certain topic and adapt opinions accordingly. We derive a mathematical model that allows to relate the strength of biased processing to expected attitude changes given the specific experimental conditions and find a clear signature of moderate biased processing. We further show that this model fits significantly better to the experimentally observed attitude changes than the neutral argument processing assumption made in previous models. Our approach provides new insight into the relationship between biased processing and opinion polarization. At the individual level our analysis reveals a sharp qualitative transition from attitude moderation to polarization. At the collective level we find (i.) that weak biased processing significantly accelerates group decision processes whereas (ii.) strong biased processing leads to a persistent conflictual state of subgroup polarization. While this shows that biased processing alone is sufficient for the emergence of polarization, we also demonstrate that homophily may lead to intra-group conflict at significantly lower rates of biased processing.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

The rise of populism and the reconfiguration of the German political space

The paper explores the notion of a reconfiguration of political space in the context of the rise of populism and its effects on the political system. We focus on Germany and the appearance of the new right wing party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD). Many scholars of politics discuss the rise of the new populism in Western Europe and the US with respect to a new political cleavage related to globalization, which is assumed to mainly affect the cultural dimension of the political space. As such, it might replace the older economic cleavage based on class divisions in defining the dominant dimension of political conflict. An explanation along these lines suggests a reconfiguration of the political space in the sense that (1) the main cleavage within the political space changes its direction from the economic axis towards the cultural axis, but (2) also the semantics of the cultural axis itself is changing towards globalization related topics. Using the electoral manifestos from the Manifesto project database, we empirically address this reconfiguration of the political space by comparing political spaces for Germany built using topic modeling with the spaces based on the content analysis of the Manifesto project and the corresponding categories of political goals. We find that both spaces have a similar structure and that the AfD appears on a new dimension. In order to characterize this new dimension we employ a novel technique, inter-issue consistency networks (IICN) that allow to analyze the evolution of the correlations between the political positions on different issues over several elections. We find that the new dimension introduced by the AfD can be related to the split off of a new "cultural right" issue bundle from the previously existing center-right bundle.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Grounding force-directed network layouts with latent space models

Force-directed layout algorithms are ubiquitously-used tools for network visualisation across a multitude of scientific disciplines. However, they lack theoretical grounding which allows to interpret their outcomes rigorously and can guide the choice of specific algorithms for certain data sets. We propose an approach building on latent space models, which assume that the probability of nodes forming a tie depends on their distance in an unobserved latent space. From such latent space models, we derive force equations for a force-directed layout algorithm. Since the forces infer positions which maximise the likelihood of the given network under the latent space model, the force-directed layout becomes interpretable. We implement these forces for unweighted and weighted networks and spatialise different real-world networks. Comparison to existing layout algorithms (not grounded in an interpretable model) reveals that node groups are placed in similar configurations, while said algorithms show a stronger intra-cluster separation of nodes, as well as a tendency to separate clusters more strongly in retweet networks. We also explore the possibility of visualising data traditionally not seen as network data, such as survey data.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

The Twitter Explorer: a Framework for Observing Twitter through Interactive Networks

We present an open-source interface for scientists to explore Twitter data through interactive network visualizations. Combining data collection, transformation and visualization in one easily accessible framework, the twitter explorer connects distant and close reading of Twitter data through the interactive exploration of interaction networks and semantic networks. By lowering the technological barriers of data-driven research, it aims to attract researchers from various disciplinary backgrounds and facilitates new perspectives in the thriving field of computational social science.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Ideological differences in engagement in public debate on Twitter

This article analyses public debate on Twitter via network representations of retweets and replies. We argue that tweets observable on Twitter have both a direct and mediated effect on the perception of public opinion. Through the interplay of the two networks, it is possible to identify potentially misleading representations of public opinion on the platform. The method is employed to observe public debate about two events: The Saxon state elections and violent riots in the city of Leipzig in 2019. We show that in both cases, (i) different opinion groups exhibit different propensities to get involved in debate, and therefore have unequal impact on public opinion. Users retweeting far-right parties and politicians are significantly more active, hence their positions are disproportionately visible. (ii) Said users act significantly more confrontational in the sense that they reply mostly to users from different groups, while the contrary is not the case.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

How social feedback processing in the brain shapes collective opinion processes in the era of social media

What are the mechanisms by which groups with certain opinions gain public voice and force others holding a different view into silence? And how does social media play into this? Drawing on recent neuro-scientific insights into the processing of social feedback, we develop a theoretical model that allows to address these questions. The model captures phenomena described by spiral of silence theory of public opinion, provides a mechanism-based foundation for it, and allows in this way more general insight into how different group structures relate to different regimes of collective opinion expression. Even strong majorities can be forced into silence if a minority acts as a cohesive whole. The proposed framework of social feedback theory (SFT) highlights the need for sociological theorising to understand the societal-level implications of findings in social and cognitive neuroscience.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

The dynamics of opinion expression

Modelling efforts in opinion dynamics have to a large extent ignored that opinion exchange between individuals can also have an effect on how willing they are to express their opinion publicly. Here, we introduce a model of public opinion expression. Two groups of agents with different opinion on an issue interact with each other, changing the willingness to express their opinion according to whether they perceive themselves as part of the majority or minority opinion. We formulate the model as a multi-group majority game and investigate the Nash equilibria. We also provide a dynamical systems perspective: Using the reinforcement learning algorithm of $Q$-learning, we reduce the $N$-agent system in a mean-field approach to two dimensions which represent the two opinion groups. This two-dimensional system is analyzed in a comprehensive bifurcation analysis of its parameters. The model identifies social-structural conditions for public opinion predominance of different groups. Among other findings, we show under which circumstances a minority can dominate public discourse.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Facilitating on-line opinion dynamics by mining expressions of causation. The case of climate change debates on The Guardian

News website comment sections are spaces where potentially conflicting opinions and beliefs are voiced. Addressing questions of how to study such cultural and societal conflicts through technological means, the present article critically examines possibilities and limitations of machine-guided exploration and potential facilitation of on-line opinion dynamics. These investigations are guided by a discussion of an experimental observatory for mining and analyzing opinions from climate change-related user comments on news articles from the TheGuardian.com. This observatory combines causal mapping methods with computational text analysis in order to mine beliefs and visualize opinion landscapes based on expressions of causation. By (1) introducing digital methods and open infrastructures for data exploration and analysis and (2) engaging in debates about the implications of such methods and infrastructures, notably in terms of the leap from opinion observation to debate facilitation, the article aims to make a practical and theoretical contribution to the study of opinion dynamics and conflict in new media environments.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2019

An Argument Communication Model of Polarization and Ideological Alignment

A multi-level model of opinion formation is presented which takes into account that attitudes on different issues are usually not independent. In the model, agents exchange beliefs regarding a series of facts. A cognitive structure of evaluative associations links different (partially overlapping) sets of facts to different political issues and determines an agents' attitudinal positions in a way borrowed from expectancy value theory. If agents preferentially interact with other agents that hold similar attitudes on one or several issues, this leads to biased argument pools and polarization in the sense that groups of agents selectively belief in distinct subsets of facts. Besides the emergence of a bi-modal distribution of opinions on single issues that most previous opinion polarization models address, our model also accounts for the alignment of attitudes across several issues along ideological dimensions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Opinion Polarization by Learning from Social Feedback

We explore a new mechanism to explain polarization phenomena in opinion dynamics in which agents evaluate alternative views on the basis of the social feedback obtained on expressing them. High support of the favored opinion in the social environment, is treated as a positive feedback which reinforces the value associated to this opinion. In connected networks of sufficiently high modularity, different groups of agents can form strong convictions of competing opinions. Linking the social feedback process to standard equilibrium concepts we analytically characterize sufficient conditions for the stability of bi-polarization. While previous models have emphasized the polarization effects of deliberative argument-based communication, our model highlights an affective experience-based route to polarization, without assumptions about negative influence or bounded confidence.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

The Coconut Model with Heterogeneous Strategies and Learning

In this paper, we develop an agent-based version of the Diamond search equilibrium model - also called Coconut Model. In this model, agents are faced with production decisions that have to be evaluated based on their expectations about the future utility of the produced entity which in turn depends on the global production level via a trading mechanism. While the original dynamical systems formulation assumes an infinite number of homogeneously adapting agents obeying strong rationality conditions, the agent-based setting allows to discuss the effects of heterogeneous and adaptive expectations and enables the analysis of non-equilibrium trajectories. Starting from a baseline implementation that matches the asymptotic behavior of the original model, we show how agent heterogeneity can be accounted for in the aggregate dynamical equations. We then show that when agents adapt their strategies by a simple temporal difference learning scheme, the system converges to one of the fixed points of the original system. Systematic simulations reveal that this is the only stable equilibrium solution.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2016

Perspectives on Multi-Level Dynamics

As Physics did in previous centuries, there is currently a common dream of extracting generic laws of nature in economics, sociology, neuroscience, by focalising the description of phenomena to a minimal set of variables and parameters, linked together by causal equations of evolution whose structure may reveal hidden principles. This requires a huge reduction of dimensionality (number of degrees of freedom) and a change in the level of description. Beyond the mere necessity of developing accurate techniques affording this reduction, there is the question of the correspondence between the initial system and the reduced one. In this paper, we offer a perspective towards a common framework for discussing and understanding multi-level systems exhibiting structures at various spatial and temporal levels. We propose a common foundation and illustrate it with examples from different fields. We also point out the difficulties in constructing such a general setting and its limitations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

From Microscopic Heterogeneity to Macroscopic Complexity in the Contrarian Voter Model

An analytical treatment of a simple opinion model with contrarian behavior is presented. The focus is on the stationary dynamics of the model and in particular on the effect of inhomogeneities in the interaction topology on the stationary behavior. We start from a micro-level Markov chain description of the model. Markov chain aggregation is then used to derive a macro chain for the complete graph as well as a meso-level description for the two-community graph composed of two (weakly) coupled sub-communities. In both cases, a detailed understanding of the model behavior is possible using Markov chain tools. More importantly, however, this setting provides an analytical scenario to study the discrepancy between the homogeneous mixing case and the model on a slightly more complex topology. We show that memory effects are introduced at the macro level when we aggregate over agent attributes without sensitivity to the microscopic details and quantify these effects using concepts from information theory. In this way, the method facilitates the analysis of the relation between microscopic processes and a their aggregation to a macroscopic level of description and informs about the complexity of a system introduced by heterogeneous interaction relations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗