arXiv subjects

Svenja Jedhoff

Publications and source records attributed to Svenja Jedhoff.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Approximating Bayesian leave-one-group-out cross-validation

When data are grouped, hierarchical or multilevel models are commonly used to account for group-level variation with group-specific parameters. Leave-one-group-out cross-validation (LOGO-CV) is a suitable tool for evaluating predictive performance for new groups, providing an estimator of the expected log predictive density (elpd). Brute-force LOGO-CV requires one model refit per held-out group, often using computationally expensive inference algorithms such as MCMC. This is costly, particularly for large numbers of groups or complex model structures. Commonly used importance sampling approximations, intended to reduce this cost, tend to fail because the group-specific parameters of the held-out group must be integrated out. We identify two key challenges in LOGO-CV elpd estimation: approximating the LOGO posterior and computing the grouped marginal likelihood. We compare 11 strategies, including 5 newly proposed, to address them. Among others, we combine Pareto-smoothed importance sampling or adaptive importance sampling with integration techniques such as Laplace approximation, adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature, and bridge sampling. We evaluate these strategies in both simulation experiments and real-world case studies, which show that marginalising over the group-specific parameters substantially improves the reliability of the importance sampling approaches.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

BayesFlow 2: Multi-Backend Amortized Bayesian Inference in Python

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they are relatively slow, which often becomes prohibitive when fitting complex models to large data sets. Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers a path to solving the computational challenges of Bayes. ABI trains neural networks on model simulations, rewarding users with rapid inference of any model-implied quantity, such as point estimates, likelihoods, or full posterior distributions. In this work, we present the Python library BayesFlow, Version 2.0, for general-purpose ABI. Along with direct posterior, likelihood, and ratio estimation, the software includes support for multiple popular deep learning backends, a rich collection of generative networks for sampling and density estimation, complete customization and high-level interfaces, as well as new capabilities for hyperparameter optimization, design optimization, and hierarchical modeling. Using a case study on dynamical system parameter estimation, combined with comparisons to similar software, we show that our streamlined, user-friendly workflow has strong potential to support broad adoption.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

From Mice to Trains: Amortized Bayesian Inference on Graph Data

Graphs arise across diverse domains, from biology and chemistry to social and information networks, as well as in transportation and logistics. Inference on graph-structured data requires methods that are permutation-invariant, scalable across varying sizes and sparsities, and capable of capturing complex long-range dependencies, making posterior estimation on graph parameters particularly challenging. Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) is a simulation-based framework that employs generative neural networks to enable fast, likelihood-free posterior inference. We adapt ABI to graph data to address these challenges to perform inference on node-, edge-, and graph-level parameters. Our approach couples permutation-invariant graph encoders with flexible neural posterior estimators in a two-module pipeline: a summary network maps attributed graphs to fixed-length representations, and an inference network approximates the posterior over parameters. In this setting, several neural architectures can serve as the summary network. In this work we evaluate multiple architectures and assess their performance on controlled synthetic settings and two real-world domains - biology and logistics - in terms of recovery and calibration.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Testing Hypotheses regarding Covariance and Correlation matrices with the R package CovCorTest

In addition to the commonly analyzed measures of location, dispersion measurements such as variance and correlation provide many valuable information. Consequently, they play a crucial role in multivariate statistics, which leads to tests regarding covariance and correlation matrices. Furthermore, also the structure of these matrices leads to important hypotheses of interest, since it contains substantial information about the underlying model. In fact, assumptions regarding the structures of covariance and correlation matrices are often fundamental in statistical modelling and testing. In this context, semi-parametric settings with minimal distributional assumptions and very general hypotheses are essential for enabling manifold usage. The free available package CovCorTest provides suitable tests addressing all aforementioned issues, using bootstrap and similar techniques to achieve good performance, particularly in small samples. Additionally, the package offers flexible specification options for the hypotheses under investigation in two central tests, accommodating users with varying levels of expertise, which results in high flexibility and user-friendliness at the same time. This paper also presents the application of \textbf{CovCorTest} for various issues, illustrated by multiple examples, where the tests are applied to a real-world dataset.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Uncertainty Propagation in Bayesian Two-Step Procedures

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for probabilistic reasoning. If inference is performed in two steps, uncertainty propagation plays a crucial role in accounting for all sources of uncertainty and variability. This becomes particularly important when both aleatoric uncertainty, caused by data variability, and epistemic uncertainty, arising from incomplete knowledge or missing data, are present. Examples include surrogate models and missing data problems. In surrogate modeling, the surrogate is used as a simplified approximation of a resource-heavy and costly simulation. The uncertainty from the surrogate-fitting process can be propagated using a two-step procedure. For modeling with missing data, methods like Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) generate multiple datasets to account for imputation uncertainty. These approaches, however, are computationally expensive, as multiple models must be fitted separately to surrogate parameters respectively imputed datasets. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient two-step approach that reduces computational overhead while maintaining accuracy. By selecting a representative subset of draws or imputations, we construct a mixture distribution to approximate the desired posteriors using Pareto smoothed importance sampling. For more complex scenarios, this is further refined with importance weighted moment matching and an iterative procedure that broadens the mixture distribution to better capture diverse posterior distributions.

stat.ME↗