arXiv subjects

Svetlana Dubinkina

Publications and source records attributed to Svetlana Dubinkina.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Neural Field Equations with random data

We study neural field equations, which are prototypical models of large-scale cortical activity, subject to random data. We view this spatially-extended, nonlocal evolution equation as a Cauchy problem on abstract Banach spaces, with randomness in the synaptic kernel, firing rate function, external stimuli, and initial conditions. We determine conditions on the random data that guarantee existence, uniqueness, and measurability of the solution in an appropriate Banach space, and examine the regularity of the solution in relation to the regularity of the inputs. We present results for linear and nonlinear neural fields, and for the two most common functional setups in the numerical analysis of this problem. In addition to the continuous problem, we analyse in abstract form neural fields that have been spatially discretised, setting the foundations for analysing uncertainty quantification (UQ) schemes.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Filtering with Randomised Observations: Sequential Learning of Relevant Subspace Properties and Accuracy Analysis

State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking performance of a continuous ensemble Kalman filtering under fixed, randomised, and adaptively varying partial observations. Rigorous bounds are established for the expected signal-tracking error relative to the randomness of the observation operator. In addition, we propose a sequential learning scheme that adaptively determines the dimension of a state subspace sufficient to ensure bounded filtering error, by balancing observation complexity with estimation accuracy. Beyond error control, the adaptive scheme provides a systematic approach to identifying the appropriate size of the filter-relevant subspace of the underlying dynamics.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Stochastic collocation schemes for Neural Field Equations with random data

We develop and analyse numerical schemes for uncertainty quantification in neural field equations subject to random parametric data in the synaptic kernel, firing rate, external stimulus, and initial conditions. The schemes combine a generic projection method for spatial discretisation to a stochastic collocation scheme for the random variables. We study the problem in operator form, and derive estimates for the total error of the schemes, in terms of the spatial projector. We give conditions on the projected random data which guarantee analyticity of the semi-discrete solution as a Banach-valued function. We illustrate how to verify hypotheses starting from analytic random data and a choice of spatial projection. We provide evidence that the predicted convergence rates are found in various numerical experiments for linear and nonlinear neural field problems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Convergence properties of a Gauss-Newton data-assimilation method

Four-dimensional weak-constraint variational data assimilation estimates a state given partial noisy observations and dynamical model by minimizing a cost function that takes into account both discrepancy between the state and observations and model error over time. It can be formulated as a Gauss-Newton iteration of an associated least-squares problem. In this paper, we introduce a parameter in front of the observation mismatch and show analytically that this parameter is crucial either for convergence to the true solution when observations are noise-free or for boundness of the error when observations are noisy with bounded observation noise. We also consider joint state-parameter estimation. We illustrated theoretical results with numerical experiments using the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models.

math.DS↗

arXiv2020

Shadowing-based data assimilation method for partially observed models

In this article we develop further an algorithm for data assimilation based upon a shadowing refinement technique [de Leeuw et al., SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Sys., 17 (2018)] to take partial observations into account. Our method is based on regularized Gauss-Newton method. We prove local convergence to the solution manifold and provide a lower bound on the algorithmic time step. We use numerical experiments with the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models to illustrate convergence of the algorithm and show that the results compare favourably with a variational technique (weak-constraint four-dimensional variational method) and a shadowing technique (pseudo-orbit data assimilation). Numerical experiments show that a preconditioner chosen based on a cost function allows the algorithm to find an orbit of the dynamical system in the vicinity of the true solution.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Transform-based particle filtering for elliptic Bayesian inverse problems

We introduce optimal transport based resampling in adaptive SMC. We consider elliptic inverse problems of inferring hydraulic conductivity from pressure measurements. We consider two parametrizations of hydraulic conductivity: by Gaussian random field, and by a set of scalar (non-)Gaussian distributed parameters and Gaussian random fields. We show that for scalar parameters optimal transport based SMC performs comparably to monomial based SMC but for Gaussian high-dimensional random fields optimal transport based SMC outperforms monomial based SMC. When comparing to ensemble Kalman inversion with mutation (EKI), we observe that for Gaussian random fields, optimal transport based SMC gives comparable or worse performance than EKI depending on the complexity of the parametrization. For non-Gaussian distributed parameters optimal transport based SMC outperforms EKI.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2019

Accounting for model error in Tempered Ensemble Transform Particle Filter and its application to non-additive model error

In this paper, we trivially extend Tempered (Localized) Ensemble Transform Particle Filter---T(L)ETPF---to account for model error. We examine T(L)ETPF performance for non-additive model error in a low-dimensional and a high-dimensional test problem. The former one is a nonlinear toy model, where uncertain parameters are non-Gaussian distributed but model error is Gaussian distributed. The latter one is a steady-state single-phase Darcy flow model, where uncertain parameters are Gaussian distributed but model error is non-Gaussian distributed. The source of model error in the Darcy flow problem is uncertain boundary conditions. We comapare T(L)ETPF to a Regularized (Localized) Ensemble Kalman Filter---R(L)EnKF. We show that T(L)ETPF outperforms R(L)EnKF for both the low-dimensional and the high-dimensional problem. This holds even when ensemble size of TLETPF is 100 while ensemble size of R(L)EnKF is greater than 6000. As a side note, we show that TLETPF takes less iterations than TETPF, which decreases computational costs; while RLEnKF takes more iterations than REnKF, which incerases computational costs. This is due to an influence of localization on a tempering and a regularizing parameter.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Application of ensemble transform data assimilation methods for parameter estimation in reservoir modelling

Over the years data assimilation methods have been developed to obtain estimations of uncertain model parameters by taking into account a few observations of a model state. The most reliable methods of MCMC are computationally expensive. Sequential ensemble methods such as ensemble Kalman filers and particle filters provide a favourable alternative. However, Ensemble Kalman Filter has an assumption of Gaussianity. Ensemble Transform Particle Filter does not have this assumption and has proven to be highly beneficial for an initial condition estimation and a small number of parameter estimation in chaotic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper we employ Ensemble Transform Particle Filter (ETPF) and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) for parameter estimation in nonlinear problems with 1, 5, and 2500 uncertain parameters and compare them to importance sampling (IS). We prove that the updated parameters obtained by ETPF lie within the range of an initial ensemble, which is not the case for ETKF. We examine the performance of ETPF and ETKF in a twin experiment setup and observe that for a small number of uncertain parameters (1 and 5) ETPF performs comparably to ETKF in terms of the mean estimation. For a large number of uncertain parameters (2500) ETKF is robust with respect to the initial ensemble while ETPF is sensitive due to sampling error. Moreover, for the high-dimensional test problem ETPF gives an increase in the root mean square error after data assimilation is performed. This is resolved by applying distance-based localization, which however deteriorates a posterior estimation of the leading mode by largely increasing the variance. A possible remedy is instead of applying localization to use only leading modes that are well estimated by ETPF, which demands a knowledge at which mode to truncate.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2017

Projected Shadowing-based Data Assimilation

In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by work on Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) and Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation (PDA). The algorithm utilizes time dependent projections onto the non-stable subspace determined by employing computational techniques for Lyapunov exponents/vectors. The method is extended to parameter estimation without changing the problem dynamics and we address techniques for adapting the method when (as is commonly the case) observations are not available in the full model state space. We use a combination of analysis and numerical experiments (with the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models) to illustrate the efficacy of the techniques and show that the results compare favorably with other variational techniques.

math.DS↗