arXiv subjects

Swarnendu Banerjee

Publications and source records attributed to Swarnendu Banerjee.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Coupling plankton and cholera dynamics: insights into outbreak prediction and practical disease management

Despite extensive control efforts over the centuries, cholera remains a globally significant health issue. Seasonal emergence of cholera cases has been reported, particularly in the Bengal delta region, which is often synchronized with plankton blooms. This phenomenon has been widely attributed to the commensal interaction between Vibrio cholerae and zooplankton in aquatic environments. Understanding the role of plankton dynamics in cholera epidemiology is therefore crucial for effective policy-making. To this end, we propose and analyze a novel compartment-based transmission model that integrates phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions into a human-bacteria cholera model. We show that zooplankton-mediated transmission can lead to counterintuitive outcomes, such as an outbreak with a delayed and lower peak still resulting in a larger overall outbreak size. Such outbreaks are prolonged by maintaining infections at lower levels during the post-peak phase, thereby intensifying epidemic overshoot and promoting the inter-epidemic persistence of pathogens. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the timing of filtration-like interventions can be strategically guided by ecological indicators, such as phytoplankton blooms. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating ecological aspects in epidemiological research to gain a deeper understanding of disease dynamics.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Rethinking tipping points in spatial ecosystems

The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing environmental stress. However, typically, ecosystem models that predict tipping do not resolve space explicitly. Ecosystems being inherently spatial, it is important to understand the effects of spatial processes. In fact, it has been argued that spatial dynamics can actually help ecosystems evade tipping. Here, using a dryland and a savanna-forest model as example systems, we provide a synthesis of several mechanisms by which spatial processes can change our predictions of tipping in ecosystems. We show that self-organized Turing patterns can emerge in drylands that help evade tipping, but that (non-Turing) patterns driven by environmental heterogeneity are key to evasion of tipping in humid savannas. Since the ecological interactions driving the dynamics of these ecosystems differ from each other, we suggest that tipping evasion mechanisms in ecosystems may be connected to the key ecological interactions in a system. This highlights the need for further research into the link between the two in order to formulate better strategies to make ecosystems resilient to global change.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2023

Quantifying optimal resource allocation strategies for controlling epidemics

Frequent emergence of communicable diseases has been a major concern worldwide. Lack of sufficient resources to mitigate the disease-burden makes the situation even more challenging for lower-income countries. Hence, strategy development towards disease eradication and optimal management of the social and economic burden has garnered a lot of attention in recent years. In this context, we quantify the optimal fraction of resources that can be allocated to two major intervention measures, namely reduction of disease transmission and improvement of healthcare infrastructure. Our results demonstrate that the effectiveness of each of the interventions has a significant impact on the optimal resource allocation in both long-term disease dynamics and outbreak scenarios. Often allocating resources to both strategies is optimal. For long-term dynamics, a non-monotonic behavior of optimal resource allocation with intervention effectiveness is observed which is different from the more intuitive strategy recommended in case of outbreaks. Further, our result indicates that the relationship between investment into interventions and the corresponding outcomes has a decisive role in determining optimal strategies. Intervention programs with decreasing returns promote the necessity for resource sharing. Our study provides a fundamental insight into determining the best response strategy in case of controlling epidemics under resource-constrained situations.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Environmental toxicity influences disease spread in consumer population

The study of infectious disease has been of interest to ecologists since long. The initiation of epidemic and the long term disease dynamics are largely influenced by the nature of the underlying consumer (host)-resource dynamics. Ecological traits of such systems may be often modulated by toxins released in the environment due to ongoing anthropogenic activities. This, in addition to toxin-mediated alteration of epidemiological traits, has a significant impact on disease progression in ecosystems which is quite less studied. In order to address this, we consider a mathematical model of disease transmission in consumer population where multiple traits are affected by environmental toxins. Long term dynamics show that the level of environmental toxin determines disease persistence, and increasing toxin may even eradicate the disease in certain circumstances. Furthermore, our results demonstrate bistability between different ecosystem states and the possibility of an abrupt transition from disease-free coexistence to disease-induced extinction of consumers. Overall the results from this study will help us gain fundamental insights into disease propagation in natural ecosystems in the face of present anthropogenic changes.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Chemical contamination mediated regime shifts in planktonic systems

Abrupt transitions leading to algal blooms are quite well known in aquatic ecosystems and have important implications for the environment. These ecosystem shifts have been largely attributed to nutrient dynamics and food web interactions. Contamination with heavy metals such as copper can modulate such ecological interactions which in turn may impact ecosystem functioning. Motivated by this, we explored the effect of copper enrichment on such regime shifts in planktonic systems. We integrated copper contamination to a minimal phytoplankton-zooplankton model which is known to demonstrate abrupt transitions between ecosystem states. Our results suggest that both the toxic and deficient concentration of copper in water bodies can lead to regime shift to an algal dominated alternative stable state. Further, interaction with fish density can also lead to collapse of population cycles thus leading to algal domination in the intermediate copper ranges. Environmental stochasticity may result in state transition much prior to the tipping point and there is a significant loss in the bimodality on increasing intensity and redness of noise. Finally, the impending state shifts due to contamination cannot be predicted by the generic early warning indicators unless the transition is close enough. Overall the study provides fresh impetus to explore regime shifts in ecosystems under the influence of anthropogenic changes like chemical contamination.

q-bio.PE↗