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Swastik Agrawal

Publications and source records attributed to Swastik Agrawal.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Deep Learning Imputation of Missing Radius of Maximum Winds (Rmax) Values in Tropical Cyclone Best-Track Data

Probabilistic coastal hazard assessments require accurate characterization of tropical cyclone (TC) parameters, yet datasets often contain missing records for the radius of maximum winds (Rmax), a key variable in Joint Probability Method analyses. This study evaluates data-driven approaches for Rmax imputation, including one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1DCNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, and conventional machine learning models. We examine physics-informed input augmentation, temporal modeling, and transfer learning using synthetic RAFT and STORM datasets for pre-training and observational IBTrACS data for fine-tuning. Including the radius of 34-knot winds (R34) substantially improves performance across all model types. Temporal models achieve higher average correlations than non-temporal models despite using approximately an order of magnitude fewer samples, indicating better preservation of relative Rmax variability across storms. This advantage is more pronounced when R34 is unavailable, suggesting temporal information can partially compensate for missing storm-size predictors. Transfer learning does not improve performance, likely because synthetic datasets have lower and less variable Rmax distributions than IBTrACS. These findings demonstrate the potential of temporal deep learning for reconstructing incomplete TC records and highlight the importance of physics-informed inputs, observational data availability, and distributional consistency in coastal hazard assessment.

cs.LG

Beyond Perplexity: Character Distribution Signatures and the MDTA Benchmark for AI Text Detection

Training-free AI text detection methods primarily rely on model log-probabilities, achieving strong performance through approaches like Binoculars and DNA-DetectLLM. However, these methods face a fundamental ceiling as models are optimized through RLHF to produce human-like probability distributions. We introduce an alternative detection signal based on character distribution signatures. We provide theoretical foundations showing that AI models, trained on massive domain-balanced corpora, approximate global character patterns while humans exhibit domain-specialized distributions, creating a "Wall of Separation" where human-AI divergence significantly exceeds AI-AI divergence. To enable systematic evaluation, we construct the Models-Domains-Temperatures-Adversarials (MDTA) benchmark comprising 642,274 prompt-aligned samples across 4 models, 5 domains, 3 temperature settings, and 3 adversarial strategies, substantially expanding the HC3 dataset with modern model responses, temperature variation, and adversarial augmentation. We introduce the Letter Distribution Score (LD-Score), demonstrating low correlation (r = 0.08-0.13) with perplexity methods. When integrated with DNA-DetectLLM, Binoculars and FastDetectGPT via a non-linear classifier, LD-Score yields consistent improvements in AUROC and F1, with particularly pronounced gains in specialized domains where vocabulary constraints amplify the detection signal. The MDTA dataset can be accessed at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/nsp909/MDTA.

cs.CL