arXiv subjects

Syed Alam

Publications and source records attributed to Syed Alam.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2022

Recent Advances in Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Engineering Problems

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in engineering applications. This chapter describes the two most popular meta-modeling methods for uncertainty quantification suitable for engineering applications (Polynomial Chaos Method and Gaussian Process). Further, the UQ methods are applied to an engineering test problem under multiple uncertainties. The test problem considered here is a supersonic nozzle under operational uncertainties. For the deterministic solution, an open-source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver SU2 is used. The UQ methods are developed in Matlab and are further combined with SU2 for the uncertainty and sensitivity estimates. The results are presented in terms of the mean and standard deviation of the output quantities.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Practical Applications of Gaussian Process with Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Digital Twin for Accident Tolerant Fuel

The application of digital twin (DT) technology to the nuclear field is one of the challenges in the future development of nuclear energy. Possible applications of DT technology in the nuclear field are expected to be very wide: operate commercial nuclear reactors, monitor spent fuel storage and disposal facilities, and develop new nuclear systems. As U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) recently announced, machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) will be new domains in the nuclear field. Considering the data science perspective, Gaussian Process (GP) has proven to be an ML algorithm for modeling and simulation components of the digital twin framework, specifically for the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts. ATF is one of the high-priority areas for both the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and NRC. GP's inherent treatment of lack of data, missing data, and data inconsistencies (noisy/erroneous data) present in the ATF concepts make it an attractive machine learning algorithm for implementation in the DT framework. This chapter focuses on the practical demonstration of GP and its applicability to the DT framework for predicting ATF.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2022

Reliability-Based Robust Design Optimization Method for Engineering Systems with Uncertainty Quantification

Robust optimization is a method for optimization under uncertainties in engineering systems and designs for applications ranging from aeronautics to nuclear. In a robust design process, parameter variability (or uncertainty) is incorporated into the engineering systems' optimization process to assure the systems' quality and reliability. This chapter focuses on a robust optimization approach for developing robust and reliable advanced systems and explains the framework for using uncertainty quantification and optimization techniques. For the uncertainty analysis, a polynomial chaos-based approach is combined with the optimization algorithms MOSA (Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing), and the process is discussed with a simplified test function. For the optimization process, gradient-free genetic algorithms are considered as the optimizer scans the whole design space, and the optimal values are not always dependent on the initial values.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity analysis for Digital Twin Enabling Technology: Application for BISON Fuel Performance Code

To understand the potential of intelligent confirmatory tools, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) initiated a future-focused research project to assess the regulatory viability of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven Digital Twins (DTs) for nuclear power applications. Advanced accident tolerant fuel (ATF) is one of the priority focus areas of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). A DT framework can offer game-changing yet practical and informed solutions to the complex problem of qualifying advanced ATFs. Considering the regulatory standpoint of the modeling and simulation (M&S) aspect of DT, uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are paramount to the DT framework's success in terms of multi-criteria and risk-informed decision-making. This chapter introduces the ML-based uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis methods while exhibiting actual applications to the finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code BISON.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Surrogate Modeling-Driven Physics-Informed Multi-fidelity Kriging: Path Forward to Digital Twin Enabling Simulation for Accident Tolerant Fuel

The Gaussian Process (GP)-based surrogate model has the inherent capability of capturing the anomaly arising from limited data, lack of data, missing data, and data inconsistencies (noisy/erroneous data) present in the modeling and simulation component of the digital twin framework, specifically for the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) concepts. However, GP will not be very accurate when we have limited high-fidelity (experimental) data. In addition, it is challenging to apply higher dimensional functions (>20-dimensional function) to approximate predictions with the GP. Furthermore, noisy data or data containing erroneous observations and outliers are major challenges for advanced ATF concepts. Also, the governing differential equation is empirical for longer-term ATF candidates, and data availability is an issue. Physics-informed multi-fidelity Kriging (MFK) can be useful for identifying and predicting the required material properties. MFK is particularly useful with low-fidelity physics (approximating physics) and limited high-fidelity data - which is the case for ATF candidates since there is limited data availability. This chapter explores the method and presents its application to experimental thermal conductivity measurement data for ATF. The MFK method showed its significance for a small number of data that could not be modeled by the conventional Kriging method. Mathematical models constructed with this method can be easily connected to later-stage analysis such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis and are expected to be applied to fundamental research and a wide range of product development fields. The overarching objective of this chapter is to show the capability of MFK surrogates that can be embedded in a digital twin system for ATF.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2022

Data-driven multi-scale modeling and robust optimization of composite structure with uncertainty quantification

It is important to accurately model materials' properties at lower length scales (micro-level) while translating the effects to the components and/or system level (macro-level) can significantly reduce the amount of experimentation required to develop new technologies. Robustness analysis of fuel and structural performance for harsh environments (such as power uprated reactor systems or aerospace applications) using machine learning-based multi-scale modeling and robust optimization under uncertainties are required. The fiber and matrix material characteristics are potential sources of uncertainty at the microscale. The stacking sequence (angles of stacking and thickness of layers) of composite layers causes meso-scale uncertainties. It is also possible for macro-scale uncertainties to arise from system properties, like the load or the initial conditions. This chapter demonstrates advanced data-driven methods and outlines the specific capability that must be developed/added for the multi-scale modeling of advanced composite materials. This chapter proposes a multi-scale modeling method for composite structures based on a finite element method (FEM) simulation driven by surrogate models/emulators based on microstructurally informed meso-scale materials models to study the impact of operational parameters/uncertainties using machine learning approaches. To ensure optimal composite materials, composite properties are optimized with respect to initial materials volume fraction using data-driven numerical algorithms.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Digital Twin and Artificial Intelligence Incorporated With Surrogate Modeling for Hybrid and Sustainable Energy Systems

Surrogate modeling has brought about a revolution in computation in the branches of science and engineering. Backed by Artificial Intelligence, a surrogate model can present highly accurate results with a significant reduction in computation time than computer simulation of actual models. Surrogate modeling techniques have found their use in numerous branches of science and engineering, energy system modeling being one of them. Since the idea of hybrid and sustainable energy systems is spreading rapidly in the modern world for the paradigm of the smart energy shift, researchers are exploring the future application of artificial intelligence-based surrogate modeling in analyzing and optimizing hybrid energy systems. One of the promising technologies for assessing applicability for the energy system is the digital twin, which can leverage surrogate modeling. This work presents a comprehensive framework/review on Artificial Intelligence-driven surrogate modeling and its applications with a focus on the digital twin framework and energy systems. The role of machine learning and artificial intelligence in constructing an effective surrogate model is explained. After that, different surrogate models developed for different sustainable energy sources are presented. Finally, digital twin surrogate models and associated uncertainties are described.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Leveraging Industry 4.0 -- Deep Learning, Surrogate Model and Transfer Learning with Uncertainty Quantification Incorporated into Digital Twin for Nuclear System

Industry 4.0 targets the conversion of the traditional industries into intelligent ones through technological revolution. This revolution is only possible through innovation, optimization, interconnection, and rapid decision-making capability. Numerical models are believed to be the key components of Industry 4.0, facilitating quick decision-making through simulations instead of costly experiments. However, numerical investigation of precise, high-fidelity models for optimization or decision-making is usually time-consuming and computationally expensive. In such instances, data-driven surrogate models are excellent substitutes for fast computational analysis and the probabilistic prediction of the output parameter for new input parameters. The emergence of Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine Learning (ML) has made the concept of surrogate modeling even more viable. However, these surrogate models contain intrinsic uncertainties, originate from modeling defects, or both. These uncertainties, if not quantified and minimized, can produce a skewed result. Therefore, proper implementation of uncertainty quantification techniques is crucial during optimization, cost reduction, or safety enhancement processes analysis. This chapter begins with a brief overview of the concept of surrogate modeling, transfer learning, IoT and digital twins. After that, a detailed overview of uncertainties, uncertainty quantification frameworks, and specifics of uncertainty quantification methodologies for a surrogate model linked to a digital twin is presented. Finally, the use of uncertainty quantification approaches in the nuclear industry has been addressed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence-Driven Multi-Scale Modeling for High Burnup Accident-Tolerant Fuels for Light Water-Based SMR Applications

The concept of small modular reactor has changed the outlook for tackling future energy crises. This new reactor technology is very promising considering its lower investment requirements, modularity, design simplicity, and enhanced safety features. The application of artificial intelligence-driven multi-scale modeling (neutronics, thermal hydraulics, fuel performance, etc.) incorporating Digital Twin and associated uncertainties in the research of small modular reactors is a recent concept. In this work, a comprehensive study is conducted on the multiscale modeling of accident-tolerant fuels. The application of these fuels in the light water-based small modular reactors is explored. This chapter also focuses on the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence in the design optimization, control, and monitoring of small modular reactors. Finally, a brief assessment of the research gap on the application of artificial intelligence to the development of high burnup composite accident-tolerant fuels is provided. Necessary actions to fulfill these gaps are also discussed.

eess.SY↗