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Sylvain Rubenthaler

Publications and source records attributed to Sylvain Rubenthaler.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

An example of Ensemble Kalman Filter with resampling

This paper introduces the Exact Ensemble Kalman Filter (ExEnKF), a novel algorithm for state estimation in discrete-time nonlinear filtering problems with linear observations. Unlike traditional Ensemble Kalman Filters (EnKFs), which approximate the filtering distribution using ensembles of Dirac measures, the ExEnKF employs Gaussian measures, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space and potentially alleviating the curse of dimensionality. We prove the algorithm's asymptotic consistency with the optimal filter (Theorem 3.1), establishing a convergence rate of order 1/ $\sqrt$ N for N particles. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz-96 multiscale model demonstrate that the ExEnKF outperforms the standard EnKF under model misspecification and poor initialization, particularly in highly stochastic regimes. The algorithm's robustness is further highlighted by its ability to track hidden components of the true signal, even when observations are generated from a different model (e.g., multiscale vs. single-scale). This work advances the theoretical understanding of ensemble methods in nonlinear filtering and provides a practical alternative to sequential Monte Carlo methods for high-dimensional systems

stat.CO

Option pricing and hedging for regime-switching geometric Brownian motion models

We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new measure, the Markov chain driving the regimes is no longer homogeneous, which differs from the equivalent martingale measures usually proposed in the literature. We show the solution minimizes the mean-variance hedging error under the objective measure. As argued by \citet{Schweizer:1996}, the variance-optimal equivalent measure naturally extends canonical option pricing results to the case of an incomplete market and the expectation under the proposed measure may be interpreted as an option price. Solutions for the option value and the optimal hedging strategy are easily obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. Two applications are considered.

math.PR

Counterexample to a transition probability formula for the ancestral process

We consider weighted particle systems in which new generations are re-sampled from current particles with probabilities proportional to their weights. This covers a broad class of sequential Monte Carlo methods, widely used in applied statistics. We consider the genealogical tree embedded into such particle system. When the time is reversed, the particle system induces a partition valued family of processes (partitions on the leaves of the genealogical tree). Our aim here is to give a counterexample to a well known formula describing the transition probabilities of this process.

math.PR

A centra-limit theorem for conservative fragmentation chain

We are interested in a fragmentation process. We observe fragments frozen when their sizes are less than ε (ε > 0). It is known ([BM05]) that the empirical measure of these fragments converges in law, under some renormalization. In [HK11], the authors show a bound for the rate of convergence. Here, we show a central-limit theorem, under some assumptions. This gives us an exact rate of convergence.

math.PR

Stability of the optimal filter in continuous time: Beyond the bene{\v s} filter

We are interested in the optimal filter in a continuous time setting. We want to show that the optimal filter is stable with respect to its initial condition. We reduce the problem to a discrete time setting and apply truncation techniques coming from [OR05]. Due to the continuous time setting, we need a new technique to solve the problem. In the end, we show that the forgetting rate is at least a power of the time t. The results can be re-used to prove the stability in time of a numerical approximation of the optimal filter.

math.PR

Ensemble Rejection Sampling

We introduce Ensemble Rejection Sampling, a scheme for exact simulation from the posterior distribution of the latent states of a class of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. Ensemble Rejection Sampling relies on a proposal for the high-dimensional state sequence built using ensembles of state samples. Although this algorithm can be interpreted as a rejection sampling scheme acting on an extended space, we show under regularity conditions that the expected computational cost to obtain an exact sample increases cubically with the length of the state sequence instead of exponentially for standard rejection sampling. We demonstrate this methodology by sampling exactly state sequences according to the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model and a non-linear autoregressive process. We also present an application to rare event simulation.

stat.CO

Central-limit theorem for conservative fragmentation chains

We are interested in a fragmentation process. We observe fragments frozen when their sizes are less than $ε$ ($ε$ > 0). Is is known ([BM05]) that the empirical measure of these fragments converges in law, under some renormalization. In [HK11], the authors show a bound for the rate of convergence. Here, we show a central-limit theorem, under some assumptions.

math.PR

Expansion of the propagation of chaos for Bird and Nanbu systems

The Bird and Nanbu systems are particle systems used to approximate the solution of the mollied Boltzmann equation. In particular, they have the propagation of chaos property. Following [GM94, GM97, GM99], we use coupling techniques and results on branching processes to write an expansion of the error in the propagation of chaos in terms of the number of particles, for slightly more general systems than the ones cited above. This result leads to the proof of the a.s convergence and the centrallimit theorem for these systems. In particular, we have a central-limit theorem for the empirical measure of the system under less assumptions then in [M{é}l98]. As in [GM94, GM97, GM99], these results apply to the trajectories of particles on an interval [0; T].

math.PR

Derivative-Free Estimation of the Score Vector and Observed Information Matrix with Application to State-Space Models

Ionides, King et al. (see e.g. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems, PNAS 103) have recently introduced an original approach to perform maximum likelihood parameter estimation in state-space models which only requires being able to simulate the latent Markov model according to its prior distribution. Their methodology relies on an approximation of the score vector for general statistical models based upon an artificial posterior distribution and bypasses the calculation of any derivative. We show here that this score estimator can be derived from a simple application of Stein's lemma and how an additional application of this lemma provides an original derivative-free estimator of the observed information matrix. We establish that these estimators exhibit robustness properties compared to finite difference estimators while their bias and variance scale as well as finite difference type estimators, including simultaneous perturbations (see e.g. Spall, IEEE Trans. on Automatic Control 37), with respect to the dimension of the parameter. For state-space models where sequential Monte Carlo computation is required, these estimators can be further improved. In this specific context, we derive original derivative-free estimators of the score vector and observed information matrix which are computed using sequential Monte Carlo approximations of smoothed additive functionals associated with a modified version of the original state-space model.

stat.ME

Global solvability of a networked integrate-and-fire model of McKean-Vlasov type

We here investigate the well-posedness of a networked integrate-and-fire model describing an infinite population of neurons which interact with one another through their common statistical distribution. The interaction is of the self-excitatory type as, at any time, the potential of a neuron increases when some of the others fire: precisely, the kick it receives is proportional to the instantaneous proportion of firing neurons at the same time. From a mathematical point of view, the coefficient of proportionality, denoted by $α$, is of great importance as the resulting system is known to blow-up for large values of $α$. In the current paper, we focus on the complementary regime and prove that existence and uniqueness hold for all time when $α$ is small enough.

math.PR

Path storage in the particle filter

This article considers the problem of storing the paths generated by a particle filter and more generally by a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. It provides a theoretical result bounding the expected memory cost by $T + C N \log N$ where $T$ is the time horizon, $N$ is the number of particles and $C$ is a constant, as well as an efficient algorithm to realise this. The theoretical result and the algorithm are illustrated with numerical experiments.

stat.CO

Optimal hedging in discrete time

Building on the work of Schweizer (1995) and Cern and Kallseny (2007), we present discrete time formulas minimizing the mean square hedging error for multidimensional assets. In particular, we give explicit formulas when a regime-switching random walk or a GARCH-type process is utilized to model the returns. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the optimal and delta hedging methods.

q-fin.PR

A Numerical Scheme for Invariant Distributions of Constrained Diffusions

Reflected diffusions in polyhedral domains are commonly used as approximate models for stochastic processing networks in heavy traffic. Stationary distributions of such models give useful information on the steady state performance of the corresponding stochastic networks and thus it is important to develop reliable and efficient algorithms for numerical computation of such distributions. In this work we propose and analyze a Monte-Carlo scheme based on an Euler type discretization of the reflected stochastic differential equation using a single sequence of time discretization steps which decrease to zero as time approaches infinity. Appropriately weighted empirical measures constructed from the simulated discretized reflected diffusion are proposed as approximations for the invariant probability measure of the true diffusion model. Almost sure consistency results are established that in particular show that weighted averages of polynomially growing continuous functionals evaluated on the discretized simulated system converge a.s. to the corresponding integrals with respect to the invariant measure. Proofs rely on constructing suitable Lyapunov functions for tightness and uniform integrability and characterizing almost sure limit points through an extension of Echeverria's criteria for reflected diffusions. Regularity properties of the underlying Skorohod problems play a key role in the proofs. Rates of convergence for suitable families of test functions are also obtained. A key advantage of Monte-Carlo methods is the ease of implementation, particularly for high dimensional problems. A numerical example of a eight dimensional Skorohod problem is presented to illustrate the applicability of the approach.

math.PR

Discrete Time Markovian Agents Interacting Through a Potential

A discrete time stochastic model for a multiagent system given in terms of a large collection of interacting Markov chains is studied. The evolution of the interacting particles is described through a time inhomogeneous transition probability kernel that depends on the 'gradient' of the potential field. The particles, in turn, dynamically modify the potential field through their cumulative input. Interacting Markov processes of the above form have been suggested as models for active biological transport in response to external stimulus such as a chemical gradient. One of the basic mathematical challenges is to develop a general theory of stability for such interacting Markovian systems and for the corresponding nonlinear Markov processes that arise in the large agent limit. Such a theory would be key to a mathematical understanding of the interactive structure formation that results from the complex feedback between the agents and the potential field. It will also be a crucial ingredient in developing simulation schemes that are faithful to the underlying model over long periods of time. The goal of this work is to study qualitative properties of the above stochastic system as the number of particles (N) and the time parameter (n) approach infinity. In this regard asymptotic properties of a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system, that arises in the propagation of chaos limit of the stochastic model, play a key role. We show that under suitable conditions this dynamical system has a unique fixed point. This result allows us to study stability properties of the underlying stochastic model. We show that as N \rightarrow \infty, the stochastic system is well approximated by the dynamical system, uniformly over time. As a consequence, for an arbitrarily initialized system, as N\rightarrow \infty and n \rightarrow \infty, the potential field and the empirical measure of the interacting particles are shown to converge to the unique fixed point of the dynamical system. In general, simulation of such interacting Markovian systems is a computationally daunting task. We propose a particle based approximation for the dynamic potential field which allows for a numerically tractable simulation scheme. It is shown that this simulation scheme well approximates the true physical system, uniformly over an infinite time horizon.

math.PR

Dispersion and collapse in stochastic velocity fields on a cylinder

The dynamics of fluid particles on cylindrical manifolds is investigated. The velocity field is obtained by generalizing the isotropic Kraichnan ensemble, and is therefore Gaussian and decorrelated in time. The degree of compressibility is such that when the radius of the cylinder tends to infinity the fluid particles separate in an explosive way. Nevertheless, when the radius is finite the transition probability of the two-particle separation converges to an invariant measure. This behavior is due to the large-scale compressibility generated by the compactification of one dimension of the space.

nlin.CD

Stability of Feynman-Kac formulae with path-dependent potentials

Several particle algorithms admit a Feynman-Kac representation such that the potential function may be expressed as a recursive function which depends on the complete state trajectory. An important example is the mixture Kalman filter, but other models and algorithms of practical interest fall in this category. We study the asymptotic stability of such particle algorithms as time goes to infinity. As a corollary, practical conditions for the stability of the mixture Kalman filter, and a mixture GARCH filter, are derived. Finally, we show that our results can also lead to weaker conditions for the stability of standard particle algorithms, such that the potential function depends on the last state only.

math.PR

Tree based functional expansions for Feynman--Kac particle models

We design exact polynomial expansions of a class of Feynman--Kac particle distributions. These expansions are finite and are parametrized by coalescent trees and other related combinatorial quantities. The accuracy of the expansions at any order is related naturally to the number of coalescences of the trees. Our results include an extension of the Wick product formula to interacting particle systems. They also provide refined nonasymptotic propagation of chaos-type properties, as well as sharp $\mathbb{L}_p$-mean error bounds, and laws of large numbers for $U$-statistics.

math.PR