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Sylvia Biscoveanu

Publications and source records attributed to Sylvia Biscoveanu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Distinguishing cosmology, astrophysics and systematics: the Bayesian search for a primordial gravitational-wave background in next-generation observatories

Next-generation gravitational-wave observatories like Cosmic Explorer will provide an unprecedented opportunity to probe the cosmological stochastic gravitational-wave background, providing insight into the early Universe that is inaccessible with other means. We investigate the prospects for measuring a Gaussian cosmological gravitational-wave background in Cosmic Explorer in the presence of a distinguishable, non-Gaussian foreground of binary black hole mergers, using a Bayesian search that simultaneously fits binary black hole and background parameters. We successfully recover a Gaussian cosmological background with a signal-to-noise ratio of 5 in one day of simulated data in Cosmic Explorer without contamination from unresolved signals or data exclusion. However, when introducing waveform systematic errors to our analysis, our inference on the stochastic background parameters becomes biased and can falsely infer the presence of a background when there is none. The bias is driven by signal mismatches at low frequencies (<20 Hz), especially when the recovery waveform is missing physical effects included in the injected signals. While we propose a metric for diagnosing if measurements will be strongly biased by waveform systematics, our results suggest improvements in waveform modeling or other mitigation techniques will be required to accurately recover a primordial stochastic gravitational-wave background in next-generation detectors.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

The first decade of gravitational-wave measurements of black hole spins

A decade after the first direct detection of gravitational waves, the growing catalog of hundreds of confirmed events is revealing new insights into the spins of stellar-mass black holes. Spin measurements have long been heralded as a promising tracer of compact-object binary formation and evolution, as different formation channels predict distinct spin signatures on a population level. In this review, we summarize the astrophysics, phenomenology, and current measurements of black hole spins. We begin with an overview of the predictions for black hole spin magnitudes and orientations from leading formation channels--isolated binary evolution, dynamical formation in clusters, formation in AGN disks, and hierarchical triples. We then describe the imprint of spin effects on the gravitational waveform and the measurability of spin in individual events. Finally, we review current population-level constraints on spin magnitudes, orientations, and effective spin parameters, including correlations with mass and redshift, and discuss their astrophysical implications. We conclude by highlighting open questions and future prospects, emphasizing how improved detector sensitivity will enable increasingly precise spin measurements for both individual events and the binary black hole population as a whole.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Inference with finite time series II: the window strikes back

Smooth window functions are often applied to strain data when inferring the parameters describing the astrophysical sources of gravitational-wave transients. Within the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration, it is conventional to include a term to account for power loss due to this window in the likelihood function. We show that the inclusion of this factor leads to biased inference. The simplest solution to this, omitting the factor, leads to unbiased posteriors and Bayes factor estimates provided the window does not suppress the signal for signal-to-noise ratios $\lesssim O(100)$, but unreliable estimates of the absolute likelihood. Instead, we propose a multi-stage method that yields consistent estimates for the absolute likelihood in addition to unbiased posterior distributions and Bayes factors for signal-to-noise ratios $\lesssim O(1000)$. Additionally, we demonstrate that the commonly held wisdom that using rectangular windows necessarily leads to biased inference is incorrect.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Reversible-jump MCMC reveals binary black hole subpopulations with distinct redshift evolution

Analyses of the growing catalog of binary black hole (BBH) mergers observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA detectors are beginning to resolve features in their population-level mass, spin, and redshift distributions, revealing imprints of the astrophysical processes driving their formation and evolution. We present a novel method to search for subpopulations in the data using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, providing interpretable results while making minimal prior assumptions. We find evidence for three subpopulations: a narrow subpopulation in primary mass at $\sim 10~M_\odot$ with preferentially aligned spins and unequal masses, consistent with isolated binary evolution; a subpopulation broadly distributed around $\sim 30~M_\odot$ with isotropically-distributed spins and a strong preference for equal mass ratios, consistent with dynamical formation in clusters; and a high-spin subpopulation spanning the continuum in mass, which we interpret as the confluence of multiple subdominant formation channels. When we allow for the independent redshift evolution of each subpopulation, we find that the subpopulation encompassing the $10~M_\odot$ peak evolves more quickly than the $30~M_\odot$ subpopulation, with implications for the delay-time distribution and metallicity-dependent BBH formation efficiency. Our work lays the foundation for a novel data-driven framework to infer the formation mechanisms of BBHs.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Tests of General Relativity with GW230529: a neutron star merging with a lower mass-gap compact object

On May 29, 2023, the LIGO Livingston observatory detected the gravitational-wave signal GW230529_181500 from the merger of a neutron star with a lower mass-gap compact object. Its long inspiral signal provides a unique opportunity to test general relativity (GR) in a parameter space previously unexplored by strong-field tests. In this work, we performed parameterized inspiral tests of GR with GW230529_181500. Specifically, we search for deviations in the frequency-domain GW phase by allowing for agnostic corrections to the post-Newtonian coefficients. We performed tests with the Flexible Theory Independent and Test Infrastructure For General Relativity frameworks using several quasicircular waveform models that capture different physical effects (higher modes, spins, tides). We find that the signal is consistent with GR for all deviation parameters. Assuming the primary object is a black hole, we obtain particularly tight constraints on the dipole radiation at $-1$PN order of $|δ\hatφ_{-2}| \lesssim 8 \times 10^{-5}$, which is a factor $\sim17$ times more stringent than previous bounds from the neutron star--black hole merger GW200115_042309, as well as on the 0.5PN and 1PN deviation parameters. We discuss some challenges that arise when analyzing this signal, namely biases due to correlations with tidal effects and the degeneracy between the 0PN deviation parameter and the chirp mass. To illustrate the importance of GW230529_181500 for tests of GR, we mapped the agnostic $-1$PN results to a class of Einstein-scalar-Gauss-Bonnet (ESGB) theories of gravity. We also conducted an analysis probing the specific phase deviation expected in ESGB theory and obtain an upper bound on the Gauss-Bonnet coupling of $\ell_{\rm GB} \lesssim 0.51~\rm{M}_\odot$ ($\sqrt{α_{\rm GB}} \lesssim 0.28$ km), which is better than any previously reported constraint.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Disentangling spinning and nonspinning binary black hole populations with spin sorting

The individual component spins of binary black holes (BBHs) are difficult to resolve using gravitational-wave observations but carry key signatures of the processes shaping their formation and evolution. Recent analyses have found conflicting evidence for a sub-population of black holes with negligible spin, but the Default spin magnitude population model used in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA analyses cannot formally accommodate an excess of systems with zero spin. In this work, we analyze several different simulated BBH populations to demonstrate that even in the face of this mismodeling, spinning and nonspinning populations can be reliably distinguished using the Default spin magnitude population model coupled with spin sorting. While typical analyses sort the binary components by their masses, sorting the components by their spin magnitudes instead offers a complementary view of the properties of individual systems consistent with equal mass and of population-level properties, given binary evolution processes like tidal-spin up that predict asymmetric spin magnitudes among the binary components. We conclude that current observations of the BBH population are inconsistent with a fully nonspinning population, but could be explained by a population with only one spinning black hole per binary or a population with up to 80% nonspinning sources.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Gravitational-wave Observations Suggest Most Black Hole Mergers Form in Triples

The spin-orbit tilt angles $θ_{1(2)}$ of merging stellar-mass black holes provide key insights into their astrophysical origin. Non-parametric population modelling of The LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaborations (2025a, arXiv:2508.18083) shows that the spin-orbit tilt distribution of mergers in the latest Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 4.0 exhibits a global peak at near-perpendicular directions $\cosθ_{1(2)}\approx0$. Here, we recover this feature using hierarchical Bayesian inference with parametric models that are tailored to enhance the diagnostic power about astrophysical formation channels. We find that the spin distribution of the low-mass bulk of the binary black hole merger population ($m_1\lesssim 44.3^{+8.7}_{-4.6}\,\rm M_\odot$) can be well-modelled by a dominant Gaussian component that peaks at $\cosθ_{1(2)}\approx0$, possibly mixed with a subdominant isotropic component. Models that include a component with spins preferentially aligned with the orbit are disfavoured by current data (with Bayes factors $|Δ\ln\mathcal{B}|\approx1$ to $3$) and constrain its contribution to be likely small ($ξ\sim\mathcal{O}(1)\,\%$), although large contributions cannot yet ruled out with certainty. If these findings are reinforced by more detections, they would challenge any major contribution from the traditional isolated-binary formation scenario yielding closely aligned spins. Instead, the dominant component with near-perpendicular spins matches expectations from the evolution of isolated massive stellar triples in the galactic field, where the Lidov-Kozai effect naturally produces a unique overabundance of mergers with $\cosθ_{1(2)}\approx0$.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Characterizing Compact-object Binaries in the Lower Mass Gap with Gravitational Waves

The source binary of the gravitational-wave (GW) event GW230529, detected at the beginning of the fourth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run, was inferred to consist of a NS and a compact object in the lower mass gap, a purported gap between the most massive NSs ($\sim 3\,M_\odot$) and least massive black holes (BHs; $\sim 5\,M_\odot$) based on compact-object observations in the Milky Way. While the nature of the mass-gap object could not be determined from the GW data alone for this event, definitively distinguishing whether this object is a NS or BH would have profound implications for the NS equation of state, supernova physics, and multimessenger astronomy. In this work, we perform parameter estimation on a suite of simulated GW systems with parameters similar to those of the GW230529 source binary to investigate whether the ambiguity in the physical nature of the source is a generic result for such systems. We vary the intrinsic properties of the simulated systems, the detector noise properties, the signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), and the waveform model used in recovery. We find that the low SNR of GW230529 is the key reason for the ambiguity in determining whether the mass of the primary object in the binary is consistent with a low-mass BH or a high-mass NS, and thus the priors used for the masses and spins have a significant impact on the posterior distribution, which is a generic result for low-SNR events. The inclusion of tidal effects in the waveform model also contributes to the observed degeneracies in the posteriors, since the statistical uncertainties in analyses of GW events like GW230529 are larger for waveform models including tidal effects. We show that the future observation of such a system with a higher SNR ($\sim 30$) would increase the precision of the mass measurements sufficiently to allow us to determine the nature of the mass-gap object.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Probing Spin-Orbit Resonances with the Binary Black Hole Population

Measurements of the binary black hole spin distribution from the growing catalog of gravitational-wave observations can help elucidate the astrophysical processes shaping the formation and evolution of these systems. Spin-orbit resonances are one process of interest, in which the component spin vectors and the orbital angular momentum align into a common plane and jointly precess about the total angular momentum of the system. These resonances, which occur preferentially in systems formed via isolated binary evolution with strong tidal effects, lead to excesses in the distribution of the azimuthal angle between the projections of the component spin vectors onto the orbital plane at $ϕ_{12}=0,\pmπ$. In this work, we conduct the first hierarchical analysis modeling the population-level distribution of $ϕ_{12}$ simultaneously with the other mass and spin parameters for simulated binary black hole populations to determine whether spin-orbit resonances can be reliably constrained. While we are unlikely to find definitive evidence for spin-orbit resonances with a population of the size expected by the end of the ongoing LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA fourth observing run, we correctly recover the various $ϕ_{12}$ distributions we simulate within uncertainties. We find that we can place meaningful constraints on the relative excesses at $ϕ_{12}=0,\pmπ$, which encodes information about binary mass transfer. We can also distinguish between fully isotropic spin angle distributions and those with features in the spin azimuth and tilt distributions. Thus, we show that population-level measurements of the $ϕ_{12}$ distribution offer a reliable, novel way to probe binary formation channels, dynamics, and mass transfer with gravitational-wave observations.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Probing the peak of star formation with the stochastic background of binary black hole mergers

Although the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration detects many individually resolvable gravitational-wave events from binary black hole mergers, those that are too weak to be identified individually contribute to a stochastic gravitational-wave background. Unlike the standard cross-correlation search for excess correlated power, a Bayesian search method that models the background as a superposition of an unknown number of mergers enables simultaneous inference of the properties of high-redshift binary black hole populations and accelerated detection of the background. In this work, we apply this templated background search method to one day of simulated data at current LIGO Hanford-Livingston detector network sensitivity to determine whether the weakest mergers contribute information to the detection of the background and to the constraint on the merger redshift distribution at high redshifts. We find that the dominant source of information for the detection of the stochastic background comes from mergers with signal-to-noise ratios just below the individual detection threshold. However, we demonstrate that the weakest mergers do contribute to the constraint on the shape of the redshift distribution not only beyond the peak of star formation, but also beyond the redshifts accessible with individually detectable sources.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Black Hole Accretion and Spin-up Through Stellar Collisions in Dense Star Clusters

Dynamical interactions in dense star clusters could significantly influence the properties of black holes, leaving imprints on their gravitational-wave signatures. While previous studies have mostly focused on repeated black hole mergers for spin and mass growth, this work examines the impact of physical collisions and close encounters between black holes and (non-compact) stars. Using Monte Carlo N-body models of dense star clusters, we find that a large fraction of black holes retained upon formation undergo collisions with stars. Within our explored cluster models, the proportion of binary black hole mergers affected by stellar collisions ranges from $10\%$ to $60\%$. If all stellar-mass black holes are initially non-spinning, we find that up to $40\%$ of merging binary black holes may have components with dimensionless spin parameter $χ\gtrsim 0.2$ because of prior stellar collisions, while typically about $10\%$ have spins near $χ= 0.7$ from prior black hole mergers. We demonstrate that young star clusters are especially important environments as they can produce collisions of black holes with very massive stars, allowing significant spin up of the black holes through accretion. Our predictions for black hole spin distributions from these stellar collisions highlight their sensitivity to accretion efficiency, underscoring the need for detailed hydrodynamic calculations to better understand the accretion physics following these interactions.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

What is the nature of GW230529? An exploration of the gravitational lensing hypothesis

On the 29th of May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration observed a compact binary coalescence event consistent with a neutron star-black hole merger, though the heavier object of mass 2.5-4.5 $M_\odot$ would fall into the purported lower mass gap. An alternative explanation for apparent observations of events in this mass range has been suggested as strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron stars. In this scenario, magnification would lead to the source appearing closer and heavier than it really is. Here, we investigate the chances and possible consequences for the GW230529 event to be gravitationally lensed. We find this would require high magnifications and we obtain low rates for observing such an event, with a relative fraction of lensed versus unlensed observed events of $2 \times 10^{-3}$ at most. When comparing the lensed and unlensed hypotheses accounting for the latest rates and population model, we find a 1/58 chance of lensing, disfavoring this option. Moreover, when the magnification is assumed to be strong enough to bring the mass of the heavier binary component below the standard limits on neutron star masses, we find high probability for the lighter object to have a sub-solar mass, making the binary even more exotic than a mass-gap neutron star-black hole system. Even when the secondary is not sub-solar, its tidal deformability would likely be measurable, which is not the case for GW230529. Finally, we do not find evidence for extra lensing signatures such as the arrival of additional lensed images, type-II image dephasing, or microlensing. Therefore, we conclude it is unlikely for GW230529 to be a strongly gravitationally lensed binary neutron star signal.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2024

Constraining possible $γ$-ray burst emission from GW230529 using Swift-BAT and Fermi-GBM

GW230529 is the first compact binary coalescence detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration with at least one component mass confidently in the lower mass-gap, corresponding to the range 3-5$M_{\odot}$. If interpreted as a neutron star-black hole merger, this event has the most symmetric mass ratio detected so far and therefore has a relatively high probability of producing electromagnetic (EM) emission. However, no EM counterpart has been reported. At the merger time $t_0$, Swift-BAT and Fermi-GBM together covered 100$\%$ of the sky. Performing a targeted search in a time window $[t_0-20 \text{s},t_0+20 \text{s}]$, we report no detection by the Swift-BAT and the Fermi-GBM instruments. Combining the position-dependent $γ-$ray flux upper limits and the gravitational-wave posterior distribution of luminosity distance, sky localization and inclination angle of the binary, we derive constraints on the characteristic luminosity and structure of the jet possibly launched during the merger. Assuming a top-hat jet structure, we exclude at 90$\%$ credibility the presence of a jet which has at the same time an on-axis isotropic luminosity $\gtrsim 10^{48}$ erg s$^{-1}$, in the bolometric band 1 keV-10 MeV, and a jet opening angle $\gtrsim 15$ deg. Similar constraints are derived testing other assumptions about the jet structure profile. Excluding GRB 170817A, the luminosity upper limits derived here are below the luminosity of any GRB observed so far.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2024

Characterizing Gravitational Wave Detector Networks: From A$^\sharp$ to Cosmic Explorer

Gravitational-wave observations by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo have provided us a new tool to explore the Universe on all scales from nuclear physics to the cosmos and have the massive potential to further impact fundamental physics, astrophysics, and cosmology for decades to come. In this paper we have studied the science capabilities of a network of LIGO detectors when they reach their best possible sensitivity, called A#, given the infrastructure in which they exist and a new generation of observatories that are factor of 10 to 100 times more sensitive (depending on the frequency), in particular a pair of L-shaped Cosmic Explorer observatories (one 40 km and one 20 km arm length) in the US and the triangular Einstein Telescope with 10 km arms in Europe. The presence of one or two A# observatories in a network containing two or one next generation observatories, respectively, will provide good localization capabilities for facilitating multimessenger astronomy and precision measurement of the Hubble parameter. Two Cosmic Explorer observatories are indispensable for achieving precise localization of binary neutron star events, facilitating detection of electromagnetic counterparts and transforming multimessenger astronomy. Their combined operation is even more important in the detection and localization of high-redshift sources, such as binary neutron stars, beyond the star-formation peak, and primordial black hole mergers, which may occur roughly 100 million years after the Big Bang. The addition of the Einstein Telescope to a network of two Cosmic Explorer observatories is critical for accomplishing all the identified science metrics. For most metrics the triple network of next generation terrestrial observatories are a factor 100 better than what can be accomplished by a network of three A# observatories.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Accelerated parameter estimation in Bilby with relative binning

We describe an implementation of the relative binning technique to speed up parameter estimation of gravitational-wave signals. We first give a pedagogical overview of relative binning, discussing also the expressions for the likelihood marginalized over phase and distance. Then, we describe the details of the code in \texttt{Bilby}, an open-source software package commonly used for parameter estimation of gravitational-wave sources. Our code is able to reproduce the parameters of GW170817 in 14 hours on a single-core CPU, performs well on simulated signals, and passes the percentile-percentile (p-p) tests. We also illustrate that relative binning is an ideal technique to estimate the parameters of signals in next-generation gravitational wave detectors.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Probing Correlations in the Binary Black Hole Population with Flexible Models

The astrophysical formation channels of binary black hole systems predict correlations between their mass, spin, and redshift distributions, which can be probed with gravitational-wave observations. Population-level analysis of the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog of binary black hole mergers has identified evidence for such correlations assuming linear evolution of the mean and width of the effective spin distribution as a function of the binary mass ratio and merger redshift. However, the complex astrophysical processes at play in compact binary formation do not necessarily predict linear relationships between the distributions of these parameters. In this work, we relax the assumption of linearity and instead search for correlations using a more flexible cubic spline model. Our results suggest a nonlinear correlation between the width of the effective spin distribution and redshift. We also show that the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra collaborations may find convincing Bayesian evidence for nonlinear correlations by the end of the fourth observing run, O4. This highlights the valuable role of flexible models in population analyses of compact-object binaries in the era of growing catalogs.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Follow-up Analyses to the O3 LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Lensing Searches

Along their path from source to observer, gravitational waves may be gravitationally lensed by massive objects. This results in distortions of the observed signal which can be used to extract new information about fundamental physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. Searches for these distortions amongst the observed signals from the current detector network have already been carried out, though there have as yet been no confident detections. However, predictions of the observation rate of lensing suggest detection in the future is a realistic possibility. Therefore, preparations need to be made to thoroughly investigate the candidate lensed signals. In this work, we present some of the follow-up analyses and strategies that could be applied to assess the significance of such events and ascertain what information may be extracted about the lens-source system from such candidate signals by applying them to a number of O3 candidate events, even if these signals did not yield a high significance for any of the lensing hypotheses. For strongly-lensed candidates, we verify their significance using a background of simulated unlensed events and statistics computed from lensing catalogs. We also look for potential electromagnetic counterparts. In addition, we analyse in detail a candidate for a strongly-lensed sub-threshold counterpart that is identified by a new method. For microlensing candidates, we perform model selection using a number of lens models to investigate our ability to determine the mass density profile of the lens and constrain the lens parameters. We also look for millilensing signatures in one of the lensed candidates. Applying these additional analyses does not lead to any additional evidence for lensing in the candidates that have been examined. However, it does provide important insight into potential avenues to deal with high-significance candidates in future observations.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

An observational upper limit on the rate of gamma-ray bursts with neutron star-black hole merger progenitors

Compact-object binary mergers consisting of one neutron star and one black hole (NSBHs) have long been considered promising progenitors for gamma-ray bursts, whose central engine remains poorly understood. Using gravitational-wave constraints on the population-level NSBH mass and spin distributions we find that at most $20~\mathrm{Gpc}^{-3}\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ of gamma-ray bursts in the local universe can have NSBH progenitors.

astro-ph.HE↗