arXiv subjects

Sylvie Thiria

Publications and source records attributed to Sylvie Thiria.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CNN-based forecasting of early winter NAO using sea surface temperature

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic sector, influencing temperature and precipitation across Europe. While the NAO's impact on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is well understood, the NAO can also be driven by SST anomalies. However, this NAO response to SST anomalies is believed to be weak and nonlinear. Former studies highlight that during early winter (November-December), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate the NAO, with El Nino (La Nina) events being linked to positive (negative) NAO phases, and an opposite effect observed in late winter (January-February). Indian Ocean SSTs and the North Atlantic Horseshoe SST anomaly have also been suggested as contributors to early winter NAO variability. However, climate models often struggle to capture these SST-NAO teleconnections, particularly in early winter. To address this, a statistical framework based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) is developed to predict the early winter NAO using observed SST fields one-, two-, and three-month before. A linear model serves as a benchmark, and both models are trained on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023. A sensitivity analysis is used to interpret the CNN's decision-making process, revealing that it focuses on regions such as the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic, confirming results from previous works. The CNN outperforms the linear model, highlighting the value of capturing nonlinear SST-NAO relationships. Prediction skill appears to be linked to ENSO, with strong ENSO events associated with greater skill in forecasting the NAO than neutral events. These findings underscore the potential of deep learning to build medium-range NAO prediction.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Learning of Sea Surface Height Interpolation from Multi-variate Simulated Satellite Observations

Satellite-based remote sensing missions have revolutionized our understanding of the Ocean state and dynamics. Among them, space-borne altimetry provides valuable Sea Surface Height (SSH) measurements, used to estimate surface geostrophic currents. Due to the sensor technology employed, important gaps occur in SSH observations. Complete SSH maps are produced using linear Optimal Interpolations (OI) such as the widely-used Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS). On the other hand, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products have much higher data coverage and SST is physically linked to geostrophic currents through advection. We propose a new multi-variate Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) emulating 20 years of SSH and SST satellite observations. We train an Attention-Based Encoder-Decoder deep learning network (\textsc{abed}) on this data, comparing two settings: one with access to ground truth during training and one without. On our OSSE, we compare ABED reconstructions when trained using either supervised or unsupervised loss functions, with or without SST information. We evaluate the SSH interpolations in terms of eddy detection. We also introduce a new way to transfer the learning from simulation to observations: supervised pre-training on our OSSE followed by unsupervised fine-tuning on satellite data. Based on real SSH observations from the Ocean Data Challenge 2021, we find that this learning strategy, combined with the use of SST, decreases the root mean squared error by 24% compared to OI.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Deep Learning based Multiple Regression to Predict Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV) from Physical Parameters in West Africa by using Keras Library

Total column water vapor is an important factor for the weather and climate. This study apply deep learning based multiple regression to map the TCWV with elements that can improve spatiotemporal prediction. In this study, we predict the TCWV with the use of ERA5 that is the fifth generation ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate. We use an appropriate deep learning based multiple regression algorithm using Keras library to improve nonlinear prediction between Total Column water vapor and predictors as Mean sea level pressure, Surface pressure, Sea surface temperature, 100 metre U wind component, 100 metre V wind component, 10 metre U wind component, 10 metre V wind component, 2 metre dew point temperature, 2 metre temperature. The results obtained permit to build a predictor which modelling TCWV with a mean abs error (MAE) equal to 3.60 kg/m2 and a coefficient of determination R2 equal to 0.90.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2016

Building a Learning Database for the Neural Network Retrieval of Sea Surface Salinity from SMOS Brightness Temperatures

This article deals with an important aspect of the neural network retrieval of sea surface salinity (SSS) from SMOS brightness temperatures (TBs). The neural network retrieval method is an empirical approach that offers the possibility of being independent from any theoretical emissivity model, during the in-flight phase. A Previous study [1] has proven that this approach is applicable to all pixels on ocean, by designing a set of neural networks with different inputs. The present study focuses on the choice of the learning database and demonstrates that a judicious distribution of the geophysical parameters allows to markedly reduce the systematic regional biases of the retrieved SSS, which are due to the high noise on the TBs. An equalization of the distribution of the geophysical parameters, followed by a new technique for boosting the learning process, makes the regional biases almost disappear for latitudes between 40°S and 40°N, while the global standard deviation remains between 0.6 psu (at the center of the of the swath) and 1 psu (at the edges).

cs.NE↗