arXiv subjects

T. Jeltema

Publications and source records attributed to T. Jeltema.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Calibration of Cluster Mis-centering in the redMaPPer Catalogs

The center determination of a galaxy cluster from an optical cluster finding algorithm can be offset from theoretical prescriptions or $N$-body definitions of its host halo center. These offsets impact the recovered cluster statistics, affecting both richness measurements and the weak lensing shear profile around the clusters. This paper models the centering performance of the \RM~cluster finding algorithm using archival X-ray observations of \RM-selected clusters. Assuming the X-ray emission peaks as the fiducial halo centers, and through analyzing their offsets to the \RM~centers, we find that $\sim 75\pm 8 \%$ of the \RM~clusters are well centered and the mis-centered offset follows a Gamma distribution in normalized, projected distance. These mis-centering offsets cause a systematic underestimation of cluster richness relative to the well-centered clusters, for which we propose a descriptive model. Our results enable the DES Y1 cluster cosmology analysis by characterizing the necessary corrections to both the weak lensing and richness abundance functions of the DES Y1 redMaPPer cluster catalog.

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arXiv2019

First Cosmology Results Using Type Ia Supernovae From the Dark Energy Survey: Analysis, Systematic Uncertainties, and Validation

We present the analysis underpinning the measurement of cosmological parameters from 207 spectroscopically classified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN), spanning a redshift range of 0.017<$z$<0.849. We combine the DES-SN sample with an external sample of 122 low-redshift ($z$<0.1) SNe Ia, resulting in a "DES-SN3YR" sample of 329 SNe Ia. Our cosmological analyses are blinded: after combining our DES-SN3YR distances with constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB; Planck Collaboration 2016), our uncertainties in the measurement of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, $w$, are .042 (stat) and .059 (stat+syst) at 68% confidence. We provide a detailed systematic uncertainty budget, which has nearly equal contributions from photometric calibration, astrophysical bias corrections, and instrumental bias corrections. We also include several new sources of systematic uncertainty. While our sample is <1/3 the size of the Pantheon sample, our constraints on $w$ are only larger by 1.4$\times$, showing the impact of the DES SN Ia light curve quality. We find that the traditional stretch and color standardization parameters of the DES SNe Ia are in agreement with earlier SN Ia samples such as Pan-STARRS1 and the Supernova Legacy Survey. However, we find smaller intrinsic scatter about the Hubble diagram (0.077 mag). Interestingly, we find no evidence for a Hubble residual step ( 0.007 $\pm$ 0.018 mag) as a function of host galaxy mass for the DES subset, in 2.4$σ$ tension with previous measurements. We also present novel validation methods of our sample using simulated SNe Ia inserted in DECam images and using large catalog-level simulations to test for biases in our analysis pipelines.

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arXiv2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Wide field mass maps via forward fitting in harmonic space

We present new wide-field weak lensing mass maps for the Year 1 Dark Energy Survey data, generated via a forward fitting approach. This method of producing maps does not impose any prior constraints on the mass distribution to be reconstructed. The technique is found to improve the map reconstruction on the edges of the field compared to the conventional Kaiser-Squires method, which applies a direct inversion on the data; our approach is in good agreement with the previous direct approach in the central regions of the footprint. The mapping technique is assessed and verified with tests on simulations; together with the Kaiser-Squires method, the technique is then applied to data from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data and the differences between the two methods are compared. We also produce the first DES measurements of the convergence Minkowski functionals and compare them to those measured in simulations.

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arXiv2019

First Cosmological Results using Type Ia Supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: Measurement of the Hubble Constant

We present an improved measurement of the Hubble constant (H_0) using the 'inverse distance ladder' method, which adds the information from 207 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) at redshift 0.018 < z < 0.85 to existing distance measurements of 122 low redshift (z < 0.07) SNe Ia (Low-z) and measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAOs). Whereas traditional measurements of H_0 with SNe Ia use a distance ladder of parallax and Cepheid variable stars, the inverse distance ladder relies on absolute distance measurements from the BAOs to calibrate the intrinsic magnitude of the SNe Ia. We find H_0 = 67.8 +/- 1.3 km s-1 Mpc-1 (statistical and systematic uncertainties, 68% confidence). Our measurement makes minimal assumptions about the underlying cosmological model, and our analysis was blinded to reduce confirmation bias. We examine possible systematic uncertainties and all are below the statistical uncertainties. Our H_0 value is consistent with estimates derived from the Cosmic Microwave Background assuming a LCDM universe (Planck Collaboration et al. 2018).

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arXiv2019

Measurement of the Splashback Feature around SZ-selected Galaxy Clusters with DES, SPT and ACT

We present a detection of the splashback feature around galaxy clusters selected using their Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) signal. Recent measurements of the splashback feature around optically selected galaxy clusters have found that the splashback radius, $r_{\rm sp}$, is smaller than predicted by N-body simulations. A possible explanation for this discrepancy is that $r_{\rm sp}$ inferred from the observed radial distribution of galaxies is affected by selection effects related to the optical cluster-finding algorithms. We test this possibility by measuring the splashback feature in clusters selected via the SZ effect in data from the South Pole Telescope SZ survey and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter survey. The measurement is accomplished by correlating these clusters with galaxies detected in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. The SZ observable used to select clusters in this analysis is expected to have a tighter correlation with halo mass and to be more immune to projection effects and aperture-induced biases than optically selected clusters. We find that the measured $r_{\rm sp}$ for SZ-selected clusters is consistent with the expectations from simulations, although the small number of SZ-selected clusters makes a precise comparison difficult. In agreement with previous work, when using optically selected redMaPPer clusters, $r_{\rm sp}$ is $\sim$ $2σ$ smaller than in the simulations. These results motivate detailed investigations of selection biases in optically selected cluster catalogs and exploration of the splashback feature around larger samples of SZ-selected clusters. Additionally, we investigate trends in the galaxy profile and splashback feature as a function of galaxy color, finding that blue galaxies have profiles close to a power law with no discernible splashback feature, which is consistent with them being on their first infall into the cluster.

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arXiv2019

First Cosmology Results using Type Ia Supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: Constraints on Cosmological Parameters

We present the first cosmological parameter constraints using measurements of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). The analysis uses a subsample of 207 spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia from the first three years of DES-SN, combined with a low-redshift sample of 122 SNe from the literature. Our "DES-SN3YR" result from these 329 SNe Ia is based on a series of companion analyses and improvements covering SN Ia discovery, spectroscopic selection, photometry, calibration, distance bias corrections, and evaluation of systematic uncertainties. For a flat LCDM model we find a matter density Omega_m = 0.331 +_ 0.038. For a flat wCDM model, and combining our SN Ia constraints with those from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), we find a dark energy equation of state w = -0.978 +_ 0.059, and Omega_m = 0.321 +_ 0.018. For a flat w0waCDM model, and combining probes from SN Ia, CMB and baryon acoustic oscillations, we find w0 = -0.885 +_ 0.114 and wa = -0.387 +_ 0.430. These results are in agreement with a cosmological constant and with previous constraints using SNe Ia (Pantheon, JLA).

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arXiv2019

Cosmological Constraints from Multiple Probes in the Dark Energy Survey

The combination of multiple observational probes has long been advocated as a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, in particular dark energy. The Dark Energy Survey has measured 207 spectroscopically--confirmed Type Ia supernova lightcurves; the baryon acoustic oscillation feature; weak gravitational lensing; and galaxy clustering. Here we present combined results from these probes, deriving constraints on the equation of state, $w$, of dark energy and its energy density in the Universe. Independently of other experiments, such as those that measure the cosmic microwave background, the probes from this single photometric survey rule out a Universe with no dark energy, finding $w=-0.80^{+0.09}_{-0.11}$. The geometry is shown to be consistent with a spatially flat Universe, and we obtain a constraint on the baryon density of $Ω_b=0.069^{+0.009}_{-0.012}$ that is independent of early Universe measurements. These results demonstrate the potential power of large multi-probe photometric surveys and pave the way for order of magnitude advances in our constraints on properties of dark energy and cosmology over the next decade.

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arXiv2019

The Dark Energy Survey Data Release 1

We describe the first public data release of the Dark Energy Survey, DES DR1, consisting of reduced single epoch images, coadded images, coadded source catalogs, and associated products and services assembled over the first three years of DES science operations. DES DR1 is based on optical/near-infrared imaging from 345 distinct nights (August 2013 to February 2016) by the Dark Energy Camera mounted on the 4-m Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. We release data from the DES wide-area survey covering ~5,000 sq. deg. of the southern Galactic cap in five broad photometric bands, grizY. DES DR1 has a median delivered point-spread function of g = 1.12, r = 0.96, i = 0.88, z = 0.84, and Y = 0.90 arcsec FWHM, a photometric precision of < 1% in all bands, and an astrometric precision of 151 mas. The median coadded catalog depth for a 1.95" diameter aperture at S/N = 10 is g = 24.33, r = 24.08, i = 23.44, z = 22.69, and Y = 21.44 mag. DES DR1 includes nearly 400M distinct astronomical objects detected in ~10,000 coadd tiles of size 0.534 sq. deg. produced from ~39,000 individual exposures. Benchmark galaxy and stellar samples contain ~310M and ~ 80M objects, respectively, following a basic object quality selection. These data are accessible through a range of interfaces, including query web clients, image cutout servers, jupyter notebooks, and an interactive coadd image visualization tool. DES DR1 constitutes the largest photometric data set to date at the achieved depth and photometric precision.

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arXiv2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: Detection of Intra-cluster Light at Redshift $\sim$ 0.25

Using data collected by the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we report the detection of intracluster light (ICL) with $\sim300$ galaxy clusters in the redshift range of 0.2-0.3. We design methods to mask detected galaxies and stars in the images and stack the cluster light profiles, while accounting for several systematic effects (sky subtraction, instrumental point-spread function, cluster selection effects and residual light in the ICL raw detection from background and cluster galaxies). The methods allow us to acquire high signal-to-noise measurements of the ICL and central galaxies (CGs), which we separate with radial cuts. The ICL appears as faint and diffuse light extending to at least 1 Mpc from the cluster center, reaching a surface brightness level of 30 mag arcsec$^{-2}$. The ICL and the cluster CG contribute to $44\%\pm17$\% of the total cluster stellar luminosity within 1 Mpc. The ICL color is overall consistent with that of the cluster red sequence galaxies, but displays the trend of becoming bluer with increasing radius. The ICL demonstrates an interesting self-similarity feature -- for clusters in different richness ranges, their ICL radial profiles are similar after scaling with cluster $R_\mathrm{200m}$, and the ICL brightness appears to be a good tracer of the cluster radial mass distribution. These analyses are based on the DES redMaPPer cluster sample identified in the first year of observations.

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arXiv2019

A Search for Optical Emission from Binary-Black-Hole Merger GW170814 with the Dark Energy Camera

Binary black hole (BBH) mergers found by the LIGO and Virgo detectors are of immense scientific interest to the astrophysics community, but are considered unlikely to be sources of electromagnetic emission. To test whether they have rapidly fading optical counterparts, we used the Dark Energy Camera to perform an $i$-band search for the BBH merger GW170814, the first gravitational wave detected by three interferometers. The 87-deg$^2$ localization region (at 90\% confidence) centered in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) footprint enabled us to image 86\% of the probable sky area to a depth of $i\sim 23$ mag and provide the most comprehensive dataset to search for EM emission from BBH mergers. To identify candidates, we perform difference imaging with our search images and with templates from pre-existing DES images. The analysis strategy and selection requirements were designed to remove supernovae and to identify transients that decline in the first two epochs. We find two candidates, each of which is spatially coincident with a star or a high-redshift galaxy in the DES catalogs, and they are thus unlikely to be associated with GW170814. Our search finds no candidates associated with GW170814, disfavoring rapidly declining optical emission from BBH mergers brighter than $i\sim 23$ mag ($L_{\rm optical} \sim 5\times10^{41}$ erg/s) 1-2 days after coalescence. In terms of GW sky map coverage, this is the most complete search for optical counterparts to BBH mergers to date

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arXiv2019

First measurement of the Hubble constant from a dark standard siren using the Dark Energy Survey galaxies and the LIGO/Virgo binary-black-hole merger GW170814

We present a multi-messenger measurement of the Hubble constant H_0 using the binary-black-hole merger GW170814 as a standard siren, combined with a photometric redshift catalog from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The luminosity distance is obtained from the gravitational wave signal detected by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) on 2017 August 14, and the redshift information is provided by the DES Year 3 data. Black-hole mergers such as GW170814 are expected to lack bright electromagnetic emission to uniquely identify their host galaxies and build an object-by-object Hubble diagram. However, they are suitable for a statistical measurement, provided that a galaxy catalog of adequate depth and redshift completion is available. Here we present the first Hubble parameter measurement using a black-hole merger. Our analysis results in $H_0 = 75.2^{+39.5}_{-32.4}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, which is consistent with both SN Ia and CMB measurements of the Hubble constant. The quoted 68% credible region comprises 60% of the uniform prior range [20,140] ${\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, and it depends on the assumed prior range. If we take a broader prior of [10,220] ${\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$, we find $H_0 = 78^{+ 96}_{-24}~{\rm km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ ($57\%$ of the prior range). Although a weak constraint on the Hubble constant from a single event is expected using the dark siren method, a multifold increase in the LVC event rate is anticipated in the coming years and combinations of many sirens will lead to improved constraints on $H_0$.

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arXiv2019

Mass Variance from Archival X-ray Properties of Dark Energy Survey Year-1 Galaxy Clusters

Using archival X-ray observations and a log-normal population model, we estimate constraints on the intrinsic scatter in halo mass at fixed optical richness for a galaxy cluster sample identified in Dark Energy Survey Year-One (DES-Y1) data with the redMaPPer algorithm. We examine the scaling behavior of X-ray temperatures, $T_X$, with optical richness, $λ_{RM}$, for clusters in the redshift range $0.2 50\%$ complete for clusters with $λ_{RM} > 130$. Regression analysis on the two samples produces consistent posterior scaling parameters, from which we derive a combined constraint on the residual scatter, $σ_{\ln Tx | λ} = 0.275 \pm 0.019$. Joined with constraints for $T_X$ scaling with halo mass from the Weighing the Giants program and richness--temperature covariance estimates from the LoCuSS sample, we derive the richness-conditioned scatter in mass, $σ_{\ln M | λ} = 0.30 \pm 0.04\, _{({\rm stat})} \pm 0.09\, _{({\rm sys})}$, at an optical richness of approximately 70. Uncertainties in external parameters, particularly the slope and variance of the $T_X$--mass relation and the covariance of $T_X$ and $λ_{RM}$ at fixed mass, dominate the systematic error. The $95\%$ confidence region from joint sample analysis is relatively broad, $σ_{\ln M | λ} \in [0.14, \, 0.55]$, or a factor ten in variance.

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arXiv2019

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing

We present cosmological results from a combined analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing, using 1321 deg$^2$ of $griz$ imaging data from the first year of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y1). We combine three two-point functions: (i) the cosmic shear correlation function of 26 million source galaxies in four redshift bins, (ii) the galaxy angular autocorrelation function of 650,000 luminous red galaxies in five redshift bins, and (iii) the galaxy-shear cross-correlation of luminous red galaxy positions and source galaxy shears. To demonstrate the robustness of these results, we use independent pairs of galaxy shape, photometric redshift estimation and validation, and likelihood analysis pipelines. To prevent confirmation bias, the bulk of the analysis was carried out while blind to the true results; we describe an extensive suite of systematics checks performed and passed during this blinded phase. The data are modeled in flat $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM cosmologies, marginalizing over 20 nuisance parameters, varying 6 (for $Λ$CDM) or 7 (for $w$CDM) cosmological parameters including the neutrino mass density and including the 457 $\times$ 457 element analytic covariance matrix. We find consistent cosmological results from these three two-point functions, and from their combination obtain $S_8 \equiv σ_8 (Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.783^{+0.021}_{-0.025}$ and $Ω_m = 0.264^{+0.032}_{-0.019}$ for $Λ$CDM for $w$CDM, we find $S_8 = 0.794^{+0.029}_{-0.027}$, $Ω_m = 0.279^{+0.043}_{-0.022}$, and $w=-0.80^{+0.20}_{-0.22}$ at 68% CL. The precision of these DES Y1 results rivals that from the Planck cosmic microwave background measurements, allowing a comparison of structure in the very early and late Universe on equal terms. Although the DES Y1 best-fit values for $S_8$ and $Ω_m$ are lower than the central values from Planck ...

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arXiv2019

Mass Calibration of Optically Selected DES clusters using a Measurement of CMB-Cluster Lensing with SPTpol Data

We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps from the 500 deg$^{2}$ SPTpol survey to measure the stacked lensing convergence of galaxy clusters from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year-3 redMaPPer (RM) cluster catalog. The lensing signal is extracted through a modified quadratic estimator designed to be unbiased by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel{'}dovich (tSZ) effect. The modified estimator uses a tSZ-free map, constructed from the SPTpol 95 and 150 GHz datasets, to estimate the background CMB gradient. For lensing reconstruction, we employ two versions of the RM catalog: a flux-limited sample containing 4003 clusters and a volume-limited sample with 1741 clusters. We detect lensing at a significance of 8.7$σ$(6.7$σ$) with the flux(volume)-limited sample. By modeling the reconstructed convergence using the Navarro-Frenk-White profile, we find the average lensing masses to be $M_{200m}$ = ($1.62^{+0.32}_{-0.25}$ [stat.] $\pm$ 0.04 [sys.]) and ($1.28^{+0.14}_{-0.18}$ [stat.] $\pm$ 0.03 [sys.]) $\times\ 10^{14}\ M_{\odot}$ for the volume- and flux-limited samples respectively. The systematic error budget is much smaller than the statistical uncertainty and is dominated by the uncertainties in the RM cluster centroids. We use the volume-limited sample to calibrate the normalization of the mass-richness scaling relation, and find a result consistent with the galaxy weak-lensing measurements from DES (Mcclintock et al. 2018).

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arXiv2018

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: Validation of weak lensing cluster member contamination estimates from P(z) decomposition

Weak lensing source galaxy catalogs used in estimating the masses of galaxy clusters can be heavily contaminated by cluster members, prohibiting accurate mass calibration. In this study we test the performance of an estimator for the extent of cluster member contamination based on decomposing the photometric redshift $P(z)$ of source galaxies into contaminating and background components. We perform a full scale mock analysis on a simulated sky survey approximately mirroring the observational properties of the Dark Energy Survey Year One observations (DES Y1), and find excellent agreement between the true number profile of contaminating cluster member galaxies in the simulation and the estimated one. We further apply the method to estimate the cluster member contamination for the DES Y1 redMaPPer cluster mass calibration analysis, and compare the results to an alternative approach based on the angular correlation of weak lensing source galaxies. We find indications that the correlation based estimates are biased by the selection of the weak lensing sources in the cluster vicinity, which does not strongly impact the $P(z)$ decomposition method. Collectively, these benchmarks demonstrate the strength of the $P(z)$ decomposition method in alleviating membership contamination and enabling highly accurate cluster weak lensing studies without broad exclusion of source galaxies, thereby improving the total constraining power of cluster mass calibration via weak lensing.

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arXiv2018

Weak Lensing Analysis of SPT selected Galaxy Clusters using Dark Energy Survey Science Verification Data

We present weak lensing (WL) mass constraints for a sample of massive galaxy clusters detected by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE). We use $griz$ imaging data obtained from the Science Verification (SV) phase of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to fit the WL shear signal of 33 clusters in the redshift range $0.25 \le z \le 0.8$ with NFW profiles and to constrain a four-parameter SPT mass-observable relation. To account for biases in WL masses, we introduce a WL mass to true mass scaling relation described by a mean bias and an intrinsic, log-normal scatter. We allow for correlated scatter within the WL and SZE mass-observable relations and use simulations to constrain priors on nuisance parameters related to bias and scatter from WL. We constrain the normalization of the $ζ-M_{500}$ relation, $A_\mathrm{SZ}=12.0_{-6.7}^{+2.6}$ when using a prior on the mass slope $B_\mathrm{SZ}$ from the latest SPT cluster cosmology analysis. Without this prior, we recover $A_\mathrm{SZ}=10.8_{-5.2}^{+2.3}$ and $B_\mathrm{SZ}=1.30_{-0.44}^{+0.22}$. Results in both cases imply lower cluster masses than measured in previous work with and without WL, although the uncertainties are large. The WL derived value of $B_\mathrm{SZ}$ is $\approx 20\%$ lower than the value preferred by the most recent SPT cluster cosmology analysis. The method demonstrated in this work is designed to constrain cluster masses and cosmological parameters simultaneously and will form the basis for subsequent studies that employ the full SPT cluster sample together with the DES data.

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arXiv2018

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Measurement of the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation scale in the distribution of galaxies to redshift 1

We present angular diameter distance measurements obtained by locating the BAO scale in the distribution of galaxies selected from the first year of Dark Energy Survey data. We consider a sample of over 1.3 million galaxies distributed over a footprint of 1318 deg$^2$ with $0.6 < z_{\rm photo} < 1$ and a typical redshift uncertainty of $0.03(1+z)$. This sample was selected, as fully described in a companion paper, using a color/magnitude selection that optimizes trade-offs between number density and redshift uncertainty. We investigate the BAO signal in the projected clustering using three conventions, the angular separation, the co-moving transverse separation, and spherical harmonics. Further, we compare results obtained from template based and machine learning photometric redshift determinations. We use 1800 simulations that approximate our sample in order to produce covariance matrices and allow us to validate our distance scale measurement methodology. We measure the angular diameter distance, $D_A$, at the effective redshift of our sample divided by the true physical scale of the BAO feature, $r_{\rm d}$. We obtain close to a 4 per cent distance measurement of $D_A(z_{\rm eff}=0.81)/r_{\rm d} = 10.75\pm 0.43 $. These results are consistent with the flat $Λ$CDM concordance cosmological model supported by numerous other recent experimental results. All data products are publicly available here: https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/y1a1/bao

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arXiv2018

DES Y1 Results: Validating cosmological parameter estimation using simulated Dark Energy Surveys

We use mock galaxy survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) data to validate and inform cosmological parameter estimation. When similar analysis tools are applied to both simulations and real survey data, they provide powerful validation tests of the DES Y1 cosmological analyses presented in companion papers. We use two suites of galaxy simulations produced using different methods, which therefore provide independent tests of our cosmological parameter inference. The cosmological analysis we aim to validate is presented in DES Collaboration et al. (2017) and uses angular two-point correlation functions of galaxy number counts and weak lensing shear, as well as their cross-correlation, in multiple redshift bins. While our constraints depend on the specific set of simulated realisations available, for both suites of simulations we find that the input cosmology is consistent with the combined constraints from multiple simulated DES Y1 realizations in the $Ω_m-σ_8$ plane. For one of the suites, we are able to show with high confidence that any biases in the inferred $S_8=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}$ and $Ω_m$ are smaller than the DES Y1 $1-σ$ uncertainties. For the other suite, for which we have fewer realizations, we are unable to be this conclusive; we infer a roughly 70% probability that systematic biases in the recovered $Ω_m$ and $S_8$ are sub-dominant to the DES Y1 uncertainty. As cosmological analyses of this kind become increasingly more precise, validation of parameter inference using survey simulations will be essential to demonstrate robustness.

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