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T. Joseph W. Lazio

Publications and source records attributed to T. Joseph W. Lazio.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

Data-Driven Approaches to Searches for the Technosignatures of Advanced Civilizations

Humanity has wondered whether we are alone for millennia. The discovery of life elsewhere in the Universe, particularly intelligent life, would have profound effects, comparable to those of recognizing that the Earth is not the center of the Universe and that humans evolved from previous species. There has been rapid growth in the fields of extrasolar planets and data-driven astronomy. In a relatively short interval, we have seen a change from knowing of no extrasolar planets to now knowing more potentially habitable extrasolar planets than there are planets in the Solar System. In approximately the same interval, astronomy has transitioned to a field in which sky surveys can generate 1 PB or more of data. The Data-Driven Approaches to Searches for the Technosignatures of Advanced Civilizations_ study at the W. M. Keck Institute for Space Studies was intended to revisit searches for evidence of alien technologies in light of these developments. Data-driven searches, being able to process volumes of data much greater than a human could, and in a reproducible manner, can identify *anomalies* that could be clues to the presence of technosignatures. A key outcome of this workshop was that technosignature searches should be conducted in a manner consistent with Freeman Dyson's "First Law of SETI Investigations," namely "every search for alien civilizations should be planned to give interesting results even when no aliens are discovered." This approach to technosignatures is commensurate with NASA's approach to biosignatures in that no single observation or measurement can be taken as providing full certainty for the detection of life. Areas of particular promise identified during the workshop were (*) Data Mining of Large Sky Surveys, (*) All-Sky Survey at Far-Infrared Wavelengths, (*) Surveys with Radio Astronomical Interferometers, and (*) Artifacts in the Solar System.

astro-ph.IM↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Search for Gravitational Wave Memory

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Anisotropy in the Gravitational-Wave Background

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-Year Data Set: Detector Characterization and Noise Budget

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Observations and Timing of 68 Millisecond Pulsars

We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3σ$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4σ$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 12.5-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data set. We created new methods to accurately model the uncertainties on pulsar distances in our analysis, and we implemented new techniques to account for a common red noise process in pulsar timing array data sets while searching for deterministic gravitational wave signals, including continuous waves. As we found no evidence for continuous waves in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strain amplitude of continuous waves emitted by these sources. At our most sensitive frequency of 7.65 nanohertz, we placed a sky-averaged limit of $h_0 < $ $(6.82 \pm 0.35) \times 10^{-15}$, and $h_0 <$ $(2.66 \pm 0.15) \times 10^{-15}$ in our most sensitive sky location. Finally, we placed a multi-messenger limit of $\mathcal{M} <$ $(1.41 \pm 0.02) \times 10^9 M_\odot$ on the chirp mass of the supermassive black hole binary candidate 3C~66B.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2023

A VLBI Proper Motion Analysis of the Recoiling Supermassive Black Hole Candidate Mrk 1018

Mrk 1018 is a nearby changing-look AGN that has oscillated between spectral Type 1.9 and Type 1 over a period of 40 years. Recently, a recoiling supermassive black hole (rSMBH) scenario has been proposed to explain the spectral and flux variability observed in this AGN. Detections of rSMBHs are important for understanding the processes by which SMBH binaries merge and how rSMBHs influence their galactic environment through feedback mechanisms. However, conclusive identification of any rSMBHs has remained elusive to date. In this paper, we present an analysis of 6.5 years of multi-frequency Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) monitoring of Mrk 1018. We find that the radio emission is compact down to 2.4 pc, and displays flux density and spectral variability over the length of our campaign, typical of a flat spectrum radio core. We observe proper motion in RA of the radio core at -36.4 $\pm$ 8.6 $μ$as yr$^{-1}$ (4.2$σ$), or $0.10c \pm 0.02c$ at the redshift of Mrk 1018. No significant proper motion is found in DEC (31.3 $\pm$ 25.1 $μ$as yr$^{-1}$). We discuss possible physical mechanisms driving the proper motion, including a rSMBH. We conclude that the apparent velocity we observe of the VLBI radio core is too high to reconcile with theoretical predictions of rSMBH velocities and that the proper motion is most likely dominated by an unresolved, outflowing jet component. Future observations may yet reveal the true nature of Mrk 1018. However, our observations are not able to confirm it as a true rSMBH.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2022

Comparison of Deep Space Navigation Using Optical Imaging, Pulsar Time-of-Arrival Tracking, and/or Radiometric Tracking

Recent advances with space navigation technologies developed by NASA in space-based atomic clocks and pulsar X-ray navigation combined with past successes in autonomous navigation using optical imaging, brings to the forefront the need to compare space navigation using optical, radiometric, and pulsar-based measurements using a common set of assumptions and techniques. This review article examines these navigation data types in two different ways. First, a simplified deep space orbit determination problem is posed that captures key features of the dynamics and geometry, and then each data type is characterized for its ability to solve for the orbit. The data types are compared and contrasted using a semi-analytical approach with geometric dilution of precision techniques. The results provide useful parametric insights into the strengths of each data type. In the second part of the paper, a high-fidelity, Monte Carlo simulation of a Mars cruise, approach, and entry navigation problem is studied. The results found complement the semi-analytic results in the first part, and illustrate specific issues such as each data type's quantitative impact on solution accuracy and their ability to support autonomous delivery to a planet.

eess.SY↗
arXiv2022

Searching For Gravitational Waves From Cosmological Phase Transitions With The NANOGrav 12.5-year dataset

We search for a first-order phase transition gravitational wave signal in 45 pulsars from the NANOGrav 12.5 year dataset. We find that the data can be modeled in terms of a strong first order phase transition taking place at temperatures below the electroweak scale. However, we do not observe any strong preference for a phase-transition interpretation of the signal over the standard astrophysical interpretation in terms of supermassive black holes mergers; but we expect to gain additional discriminating power with future datasets, improving the signal to noise ratio and extending the sensitivity window to lower frequencies. An interesting open question is how well gravitational wave observatories could separate such signals.

astro-ph.CO↗
arXiv2021

A Matched Survey for the Enigmatic Low Radio Frequency Transient ILT J225347+862146

Discovered in 2011 with LOFAR, the $15$ Jy low-frequency radio transient ILT J225347+862146 heralds a potentially prolific population of radio transients at $<100$ MHz. However, subsequent transient searches in similar parameter space yielded no detections. We test the hypothesis that these surveys at comparable sensitivity have missed the population due to mismatched survey parameters. In particular, the LOFAR survey used only $195$ kHz of bandwidth at $60$ MHz while other survey were at higher frequencies or had wider bandwidth. Using $137$ hours of all-sky images from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory Long Wavelength Array (OVRO-LWA), we conduct a narrowband transient search at $\sim10$ Jy sensitivity with timescales from $10$ min to $1$ day and a bandwidth of $722$ kHz at $60$ MHz. To model remaining survey selection effects, we introduce a flexible Bayesian approach for inferring transient rates. We do not detect any transient and find compelling evidence that our non-detection is inconsistent with the detection of ILT J225347+862146. Under the assumption that the transient is astrophysical, we propose two hypotheses that may explain our non-detection. First, the transient population associated with ILT J225347+862146 may have a low all-sky density and display strong temporal clustering. Second, ILT J225347+862146 may be an extreme instance of the fluence distribution, of which we revise the surface density estimate at $15$ Jy to $1.1\times 10^{-7}$ deg$^{-2}$ with a $95\%$ credible interval of $(3.5\times10^{-12}, 3.4\times10^{-7})$ deg$^{-2}$. Finally, we find a previously identified object coincident with ILT J225347+862146 to be an M dwarf at $420$ pc.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2021

Characterizing the FRB host galaxy population and its connection to transients in the local and extragalactic Universe

We present the localization and host galaxies of one repeating and two apparently non-repeating Fast Radio Bursts. FRB20180301A was detected and localized with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array to a star-forming galaxy at $z=0.3304$. FRB20191228A, and FRB20200906A were detected and localized by the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder to host galaxies at $z=0.2430$ and $z=0.3688$, respectively. We combine these with 13 other well-localized FRBs in the literature, and analyze the host galaxy properties. We find no significant differences in the host properties of repeating and apparently non-repeating FRBs. FRB hosts are moderately star-forming, with masses slightly offset from the star-forming main-sequence. Star formation and low-ionization nuclear emission-line region (LINER) emission are major sources of ionization in FRB host galaxies, with the former dominant in repeating FRB hosts. FRB hosts do not track stellar mass and star formation as seen in field galaxies (more than 95% confidence). FRBs are rare in massive red galaxies, suggesting that progenitor formation channels are not solely dominated by delayed channels which lag star formation by Gigayears. The global properties of FRB hosts are indistinguishable from core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) and short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) hosts, and the spatial offset (from galaxy centers) of FRBs is mostly inconsistent with that of the Galactic neutron star population (95% confidence). The spatial offsets of FRBs (normalized to the galaxy effective radius) also differ from those of globular clusters (GCs) in late- and early-type galaxies with 95% confidence.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2021

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: Search for Non-Einsteinian Polarization Modes in theGravitational-Wave Background

We search NANOGrav's 12.5-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) with all the spatial correlations allowed by general metric theories of gravity. We find no substantial evidence in favor of the existence of such correlations in our data. We find that scalar-transverse (ST) correlations yield signal-to-noise ratios and Bayes factors that are higher than quadrupolar (tensor transverse, TT) correlations. Specifically, we find ST correlations with a signal-to-noise ratio of 2.8 that are preferred over TT correlations (Hellings and Downs correlations) with Bayesian odds of about 20:1. However, the significance of ST correlations is reduced dramatically when we include modeling of the Solar System ephemeris systematics and/or remove pulsar J0030$+$0451 entirely from consideration. Even taking the nominal signal-to-noise ratios at face value, analyses of simulated data sets show that such values are not extremely unlikely to be observed in cases where only the usual TT modes are present in the GWB. In the absence of a detection of any polarization mode of gravity, we place upper limits on their amplitudes for a spectral index of $γ= 5$ and a reference frequency of $f_\text{yr} = 1 \text{yr}^{-1}$. Among the upper limits for eight general families of metric theories of gravity, we find the values of $A^{95\%}_{TT} = (9.7 \pm 0.4)\times 10^{-16}$ and $A^{95\%}_{ST} = (1.4 \pm 0.03)\times 10^{-15}$ for the family of metric spacetime theories that contain both TT and ST modes.

gr-qc↗