arXiv subjects

T. O. Benli

Publications and source records attributed to T. O. Benli.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2016

Implementation of Electrical Feedback Technologies in 5 Households in Ankara Turkey

Most people do not know how much energy they are spending for different purposes and also they are unaware of potential electrical consumption reduction level they could make by changing their consumption behaviors or investing in new efficient technology products. Providing electrical consumption information to household and make the consumption information tangible is very effective strategy in reducing electrical consumption in households. In Home Displays provide consumers real time information on electrical consumption level and related expenditure, with that strategy turning an intangible electric bill into transparent and controllable is possible. We interviewed the participants before the start to our study in order to have knowledge of their income, environmental attitudes and the knowledge level of their electrical consumption conserving activities. Monitoring over 3 to 5 months maximal of five households electrical consumption and comparing that consumption level with the previous year had been realized. Households received advanced real time appliance level feedback. Behavioral change associated electrical consumption reduction levels were identified. It is also realized that setting goals via an electrical energy consumption display have high potential on reducing the total electricity consumption in households. We found 0, 0, 13.21, 3.42, 1.59 % electricity savings on house 1, house 2, house 3, house 4 and house 5 correspondingly. It is suggested that further attention need to be given on potential reduction effect of applying different type of monitor designs and implication of special designed stimulants that can be used all over the house that can alert households with their current consumption level. Also, it is suggested to concentrate on time periods in order to analyze and try to reveal specific time periods for specific consumption behaviors.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2016

A Comparison of Various Electricity Tariff Price Forecasting Techniques in Turkey and Identifying the Impact of Time Series Periods

It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated electricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive market area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable electricity tariff price forecasting tools are needed. In the presence of effective forecasting tools, taking the decisions of production, merchandising, maintenance and investment with the aim of maximizing the profits and benefits can be successively and effectively done. According to the electricity demand, there are four various electricity tariffs pricing in Turkey; monochromic, day, peak and night. The objective is find the best suitable tool for predicting the four pricing periods of electricity and produce short term forecasts (one year ahead-monthly). Our approach based on finding the best model, which ensures the smallest forecasting error measurements of: MAPE, MAD and MSD. We conduct a comparison of various forecasting approaches in total accounts for nine teen, at least all of those have different aspects of methodology. Our beginning step was doing forecasts for the year 2015. We validated and analyzed the performance of our best model and made comparisons to see how well the historical values of 2015 and forecasted data for that specific period matched. Results show that given the time-series data, the recommended models provided good forecasts. Second part of practice, we also include the year 2015, and compute all the models with the time series of January 2011 to December 2015. Again by choosing the best appropriate forecasting model, we conducted the forecast process and also analyze the impact of enhancing of time series periods (January 2007 to December 2015) to model that we used for forecasting process.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2016

A Comparison of Nineteen Various Electricity Consumption Forecasting Approaches and Practicing to Five Different Households in Turkey

The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa System, the system of electrical energy provider in capital of Turkey, which consumers can reach their latest two year period electricity consumptions; in our study the period was May 2014 to May 2016. Various techniques had been applied in order to analyze the data; classical decomposition models; standard typed and also with the centering moving average method, regression equations, exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. In our study, nine teen different approaches; all of these have at least diversified aspects of methodology, had been compared and the best model for forecasting were decided by considering the smallest values of MAPE, MAD and MSD. As a first step we took the time period May 2014 to May 2016 and found predicted value for June 2016 with the best forecasting model. After finding the best forecasting model and fitted value for June 2016, than validating process had been taken place; we made comparisons to see how well the real value of June 2016 and forecasted value for that specific period matched. Afterwards we made electrical consumption forecast for the following 3 months; June-September 2016 for each of five households individually.

q-fin.ST↗