arXiv subjects

T. Pursimo

Publications and source records attributed to T. Pursimo.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

AGN in Gaia Alerts: from flares to Changing Look Quasars

The Gaia Alerts system is providing alerts on a variety of objects displaying a significant photometric change detected by the Gaia satellite from one passage to the next one over the same region of the sky. Among the over 22000 alerts published until the end of 2022, around 13 percent concern AGN or quasar candidates. We have embarked on a spectroscopic ground-based follow-up of some of those (including some selected by a different method specifically in galactic nuclei), to establish their true nature, and reveal the various phenomena leading to a change in magnitude of those AGN. The present paper deals with radio-quiet objects, while the radio-loud ones will be described in a companion paper. We confirm, on one hand, the AGN/quasar nature of 64 new candidates alerted by Gaia, and, on the other hand, obtained second-epoch spectra of over 200 known AGN also alerted for large photometric variations. The observed phenomena show a large variety: from Flares to Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) and a large number of Changing Look Quasars (CLQs, 56 secure ones, plus 23 probable ones), not forgetting some rarer events like SNe, microlensing events or Extreme Coronal Line Emitters. This sample shows that variability is an excellent tool to detect new quasars, especially radio-quiet ones that otherwise would be undetected, and that a significant fraction of variable AGN/quasars, around 10 percent, presents the CLQ phenomenon. Some of the new CLQs are followed-up to monitor further changes and measure time scales.

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arXiv2025

Multiband optical variability on diverse timescales of the blazar Ton 599 from 2011 to 2023

(Shortened)Context: We analyze the optical variability of the FSRQ Ton 599 using BVRI photometry from the WEBT collaboration (2011-2023), complemented by photometric and spectroscopic data from the Steward Observatory.\\ Aims: To characterize short- and long-term optical variability -- including flux distributions, intranight changes, color evolution, and spectra -- to constrain physical parameters and processes in the central engine.\\ Methods: We tested flux distributions in each filter against normal and log-normal, explored the RMS-flux relation and derived PSDs. We quantified intranight variability using a $\chi^2$ test and fractional variability. From variability timescales, we estimated the emitting region size and magnetic field. Long-term variability was studied by segmenting the light curve into 12 intervals and analyzing flux statistics. For multi-filter flares, we computed spectral slopes, redshift-corrected fluxes, monochromatic luminosities and generated Color-magnitude and color-time diagrams. From low-flux spectra, we measured Mg II line and estimated the black hole mass.\\ Results: Ton 599 showed strong optical variability. Log-normal distributions fit the fluxes better, and all bands show a positive RMS-flux relation with red-noise PSDs.Intranight variability is detected, and used in constraining the emission region and magnetic field.The R band reaches a peak flux of 23.5 mJy, corresponding to a monochromatic luminosity of $log({\nu}L{\nu})= 48.48 [erg/s]$. We found a redder-when-brighter trend at low fluxes (thermal), achromatic behavior at intermediate levels (possibly due to jet orientation changes), and a bluer-when-brighter trend at high fluxes (synchrotron). Long-term color changes are modest, short-term are significant, with a negative correlation between the amplitude of color changes and the average flux. The estimated SMBH mass is order of $10^8 M_\odot$.

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arXiv2025

Spectropolarimetry of NGC 1275 reveals a narrow-line radio galaxy with polarization parallel to its radio jet axis

Concomitant with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) observation of the Perseus cluster, we obtained optical spectropolarimetry of its central active galactic nucleus, NGC 1275, using the Alhambra Faint Object Spectrograph and Camera (ALFOSC) on the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT). While the total-light spectrum confirms its edge-on, core obscured (type-2) classification, the polarized spectrum shows a polarization angle aligned with the arcsecond radio jet axis -- an exceptional behavior for type-2 objects. Our polarization analysis also reveals wavelength-dependent linear polarization at level 2-3% in the continuum, likely rising from a combination of variable syn

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arXiv2024

Multi-wavelength picture of the misaligned BL Lac object 3C 371

The BL Lac object 3C 371 is one of the targets that are regularly monitored by the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) Collaboration to study blazar variability on both short and long timescales. We aim to evaluate the long-term multiwavelength (MWL) behaviour of 3C 371, comparing it with the results derived for its optical emission in our previous study. For this, we make use of the multi-band campaigns organized by the WEBT Collaboration in optical and radio between January 2018 and December 2020, and of public data from Swift and Fermi satellites and the MOJAVE Very Large Interferometry programme. We evaluate the variability shown by the source in each band with the amplitude variability quantification, as well as possible interband correlation using the z-Discrete Correlation Function. We also present a deep analysis of the optical-UV, X-ray and $\gamma$-ray spectral variability. With the MOJAVE data we perform a kinematics analysis, looking for components propagating along the jet, calculating its kinematics parameters. This set of parameters is later used for the interpretation of the source MWL behaviour, modelling the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of the source with theoretical blazar emission scenarios.

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arXiv2024

Distance estimation of gamma-ray emitting BL Lac objects from imaging observations

Direct redshift determination of BL Lac objects is highly challenging as the emission in the optical and near-infrared (NIR) bands is largely dominated by the non-thermal emission from the relativistic jet that points very close to our line of sight. Therefore, their optical spectra often show no emission lines from the host galaxy. In this work, we aim to overcome this difficulty by attempting to detect the host galaxy and derive redshift constraints based on assumptions on the galaxy magnitude ("imaging redshifts"). Imaging redshifts are derived by obtaining deep optical images under good seeing conditions, so that it is possible to detect the host galaxy as weak extension of the point-like source. We then derive the imaging redshift by using the host galaxy as a standard candle using two different methods. We determine imaging redshift for 9 out of 17 blazars that we observed as part of this program. The redshift range of these targets is 0.28-0.60 and the two methods used to derive the redshift give very consistent results within the uncertainties. We also performed a detailed comparison of the imaging redshifts with those obtained by other methods, like direct spectroscopic constraints or looking for groups of galaxies close to the blazar. We show that the constraints from different methods are consistent and that for example in the case of J2156.0+1818, which is the most distant source for which we detect the host galaxy, combining the three constraints narrows down the redshift to $0.63<z<0.71$. This makes the source interesting for future studies of extragalactic background light in the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory era.

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arXiv2024

Optical variability of the blazar 3C 371: from minute to year timescales

The BL Lac object 3C 371 has been observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (\textit{TESS}) for approximately a year, between July 2019 and July 2020, with an unmatched 2-minute observing cadence. In parallel, the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope (WEBT) Collaboration organized an extensive observing campaign, providing three years of continuous optical monitoring between 2018 and 2020. These datasets allow for a thorough investigation of the variability of the source. The goal of this study is evaluating the optical variability of 3C 371. Taking advantage of the remarkable cadence of \textit{TESS} data, we aim to characterize the intra-day variability (IDV) displayed by the source and identify its shortest variability timescale. With this estimate, constraints on the size of the emitting region and black hole mass can be calculated. Moreover, WEBT data is used to investigate long-term variability (LTV), including understanding spectral behaviour of the source and the polarization variability. Based on the derived characteristics, information on the origin of the variability on different timescales is extracted. We evaluated the variability applying the variability amplitude tool that quantifies how variable the emission is. Moreover, we employed common tools like ANOVA (ANalysis Of VAariance) tests, wavelet and power spectral density (PSD) analyses to characterize the shortest variability timescales present in the emission and the underlying noise affecting the data. Short- and long-term colour behaviours have been evaluated to understand the spectral behaviour of the source. The polarized emission was analyzed, studying its variability and possible rotation patterns of the electric vector position angle (EVPA). Flux distributions of IDV and LTV were also studied with the aim of linking the flux variations to turbulent and/or accretion disc related processes.

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arXiv2022

V838 Mon: A slow waking up of Sleeping Beauty?

Context. V838 Monocerotis is a peculiar binary that underwent an immense stellar explosion in 2002, leaving behind an expanding cool supergiant and a hot B3V companion. Five years after the outburst, the B3V companion disappeared from view, and so far did not recover. Aims. We investigate the changes in the light curve and spectral features Methods. A monitoring campaign has been performed during the past 13 years with the Nordic Optical Telescope to obtain optical photometric and spectroscopic data. The data sets are used to analyse the temporal evolution of the spectral features and the spectral energy distribution, and to characterize the object. Results. Our photometric data show a steady brightening in all bands during the past 13 years, which is particularly prominent in the blue. This rise is also reflected in the spectra, showing a gradual relative increase in the continuum flux at shorter wavelengths. In addition, a slow brightening of the Ha emission line starting in 2015 was detected. These changes might imply that the B3V companion is slowly reappearing. During the same time interval, our analysis reveals a considerable change in the observed colours of the object along with a steady decrease in the strength and width of molecular absorption bands in our low-resolution spectra. These changes suggest a rising temperature of the cool supergiant along with a weakening of its wind, most likely combined with a slow recovery of the secondary due to the evaporation of the dust and accretion of the material from the shell in which the hot companion is embedded. From our medium-resolution spectra, we find that the heliocentric radial velocity of the atomic absorption line of TiI 6556.06 A has been stable for more than a decade. We propose that TiI lines are tracing the velocity of the red supergiant in V838 Mon, and not representing the infalling matter as previously stated.

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arXiv2022

Host galaxy magnitude of OJ 287 from its colours at minimum light

OJ 287 is a BL Lacertae type quasar in which the active galactic nucleus (AGN) outshines the host galaxy by an order of magnitude. The only exception to this may be at minimum light when the AGN activity is so low that the host galaxy may make quite a considerable contribution to the photometric intensity of the source. Such a dip or a fade in the intensity of OJ 287 occurred in November 2017, when its brightness was about 1.75 magnitudes lower than the recent mean level. We compare the observations of this fade with similar fades in OJ 287 observed earlier in 1989, 1999, and 2010. It appears that there is a relatively strong reddening of the B$-$V colours of OJ 287 when its V-band brightness drops below magnitude 17. Similar changes are also seen V$-$R, V$-$I, and R$-$I colours during these deep fades. These data support the conclusion that the total magnitude of the host galaxy is $V=18.0 \pm 0.3$, corresponding to $M_{K}=-26.5 \pm 0.3$ in the K-band. This is in agreement with the results, obtained using the integrated surface brightness method, from recent surface photometry of the host. These results should encourage us to use the colour separation method also in other host galaxies with strongly variable AGN nuclei. In the case of OJ 287, both the host galaxy and its central black hole are among the biggest known, and its position in the black hole mass-galaxy mass diagram lies close to the mean correlation.

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arXiv2020

The dual nature of blazar fast variability. Space and ground observations of S5 0716+714

Blazar S5 0716+714 is well-known for its short-term variability, down to intra-day time-scales. We here present the 2-min cadence optical light curve obtained by the TESS space telescope in 2019 December - 2020 January and analyse the object fast variability with unprecedented sampling. Supporting observations by the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope Collaboration in B, V , R, and I bands allow us to investigate the spectral variability during the TESS pointing. The spectral analysis is further extended in frequency to the UV and X-ray bands with data from the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. We develop a new method to unveil the shortest optical variability time-scales. This is based on progressive de-trending of the TESS light curve by means of cubic spline interpolations through the binned fluxes, with decreasing time bins. The de-trended light curves are then analysed with classical tools for time-series analysis (periodogram, auto-correlation and structure functions). The results show that below 3 d there are significant characteristic variability time-scales of about 1.7, 0.5, and 0.2 d. Variability on time-scales < 0.2 d is strongly chromatic and must be ascribed to intrinsic energetic processes involving emitting regions, likely jet sub-structures, with dimension less than about milliparsec. In contrast, flux changes on time-scales > 0.5 d are quasi-achromatic and are probably due to Doppler factor changes of geometric origin.

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arXiv2020

Characterizing Some Gaia Alerts with LAMOST and SDSS

Gaia is regularly producing Alerts on objects where photometric variability has been detected. The physical nature of these objects has often to be determined with the complementary observations from ground-based facilities. We have compared the list of Gaia Alerts (until 20181101) with archival LAMOST and SDSS spectroscopic data. The date of the ground-based observation rarely corresponds to the date of the Alert, but this allows at least the identification of the source if it is persistent, or the host galaxy if the object was only transient like a supernova. A list of Gaia Nuclear Transients from Kostrzewa-Rutkowska et al. (2018) has been included in this search also. We found 26 Gaia Alerts with spectra in LAMOST+SDSS labelled as stars (12 with multi-epoch spectra). A majority of them are CVs. Similarly 206 Gaia Alerts have associated spectra labelled as galaxies (49 with multi-epoch spectra). Those spectra were generally obtained on a date different from the Alert date, are mostly emission-line galaxies, leading to the suspicion that most of the Alerts were due to a SN. As for the GNT list, we found 55 associated spectra labelled as galaxies (13 with multi-epoch spectra). In two galaxies, Gaia17aal and GNTJ170213+2543, was the date of the spectroscopic observation close enough to the Alert date: we find a trace of the SN itself in their LAMOST spectrum, both classified here as a type Ia SN. The GNT sample has a higher proportion of AGNs, suggesting that some of the detected variations are also due to the AGN itself. Similar for Quasars, we found 30 Gaia Alerts but 68 GNT cases have single epoch quasar spectra, while 12 plus 23 have multi-epoch spectra. For ten out of these 35, their multi-epoch spectra show appearance or disappearance of the broad Balmer lines and also variations in the continuum, qualifying them as "Changing Look Quasars".

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arXiv2019

Serendipitous discovery of a physical binary quasar at z=1.76

Binary quasars are extremely rare objects, used to investigate clustering on very small scales at different redshifts. The cases where the two quasar components are gravitationally bound, known as physical binary quasars, can also exhibit enhanced astrophysical activity and therefore are of particular scientific interest. Here we present the serendipitous discovery of a physical pair of quasars with an angular separation of $\Delta\theta = (8.76 \pm 0.11)$ arcsec. The redshifts of the two quasars are consistent within the errors and measured as $z = (1.76\pm 0.01)$. Under the motivated assumption that the pair does not arise from a single gravitationally lensed quasar, the resulting projected physical separation was estimated as $(76 \pm 1)$ kpc. For both targets we detected Si VI, C VI, C III], and Mg II emission lines. However, the two quasars show significantly different optical colours, one being among the most reddened quasars at $z > 1.5$ and the other with colours consistent with typical quasar colours at the same redshift. Therefore it is ruled out that the sources are a lensed system. This is our second serendipitous discovery of a pair of two quasars with different colours, having a separation $\lesssim 10$ arcsec, which extends the very limited catalogue of known quasar pairs. We ultimately argue that the number of binary quasars may have been significantly underestimated in previous photometric surveys, due to the bias arising from paired quasars with very different colours.

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arXiv2019

Investigating the multiwavelength behaviour of the flat spectrum radio quasar CTA 102 during 2013-2017

We present a multiwavelength study of the flat-spectrum radio quasar CTA 102 during 2013-2017. We use radio-to-optical data obtained by the Whole Earth Blazar Telescope, 15 GHz data from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory, 91 and 103 GHz data from the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, near-infrared data from the Rapid Eye Monitor telescope, as well as data from the Swift (optical-UV and X-rays) and Fermi ($\gamma$ rays) satellites to study flux and spectral variability and the correlation between flux changes at different wavelengths. Unprecedented $\gamma$-ray flaring activity was observed during 2016 November-2017 February, with four major outbursts. A peak flux of (2158 $\pm$ 63)$\times$10$^{-8}$ ph cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$, corresponding to a luminosity of (2.2 $\pm$ 0.1)$\times$10$^{50}$ erg s$^{-1}$, was reached on 2016 December 28. These four $\gamma$-ray outbursts have corresponding events in the near-infrared, optical, and UV bands, with the peaks observed at the same time. A general agreement between X-ray and $\gamma$-ray activity is found. The $\gamma$-ray flux variations show a general, strong correlation with the optical ones with no time lag between the two bands and a comparable variability amplitude. This $\gamma$-ray/optical relationship is in agreement with the geometrical model that has successfully explained the low-energy flux and spectral behaviour, suggesting that the long-term flux variations are mainly due to changes in the Doppler factor produced by variations of the viewing angle of the emitting regions. The difference in behaviour between radio and higher energy emission would be ascribed to different viewing angles of the jet regions producing their emission.

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arXiv2019

First Light of Engineered Diffusers at the Nordic Optical Telescope Reveal Time Variability in the Optical Eclipse Depth of WASP-12b

We present the characterization of two engineered diffusers mounted on the 2.5 meter Nordic Optical Telescope, located at Roque de Los Muchachos, Spain. To assess the reliability and the efficiency of the diffusers, we carried out several test observations of two photometric standard stars, along with observations of one primary transit observation of TrES-3b in the red (R-band), one of CoRoT-1b in the blue (B-band), and three secondary eclipses of WASP-12b in V-band. The achieved photometric precision is in all cases within the sub-millimagnitude level for exposures between 25 and 180 seconds. Along a detailed analysis of the functionality of the diffusers, we add a new transit depth measurement in the blue (B-band) to the already observed transmission spectrum of CoRoT-1b, disfavouring a Rayleigh slope. We also report variability of the eclipse depth of WASP-12b in the V-band. For the WASP-12b secondary eclipses, we observe a secondary-depth deviation of about 5-sigma, and a difference of 6-sigma and 2.5-sigma when compared to the values reported by other authors in similar wavelength range determined from Hubble Space Telescope data. We further speculate about the potential physical processes or causes responsible for this observed variability

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arXiv2018

Detection of a gamma-ray flare from the high-redshift blazar DA 193

High-redshift ($z>2$) blazars are the most powerful members of the blazar family. Yet, only a handful of them have both X-ray and $\gamma$-ray detection, thereby making it difficult to characterize the energetics of the most luminous jets. Here, we report, for the first time, the Fermi-Large Area Telescope detection of the significant $\gamma$-ray emission from the high-redshift blazar DA 193 ($z=2.363$). Its time-averaged $\gamma$-ray spectrum is soft ($\gamma$-ray photon index = $2.9\pm0.1$) and together with a relatively flat hard X-ray spectrum (14$-$195 keV photon index = $1.5\pm0.4$), DA 193 presents a case to study a typical high-redshift blazar with inverse Compton peak being located at MeV energies. An intense GeV flare was observed from this object in the first week of 2018 January, a phenomenon rarely observed from high-redshift sources. What makes this event a rare one is the observation of an extremely hard $\gamma$-ray spectrum (photon index = $1.7\pm0.2$), which is somewhat unexpected since high-redshift blazars typically exhibit a steep falling spectrum at GeV energies. The results of our multi-frequency campaign, including both space- (Fermi, NuSTAR, and Swift) and ground-based (Steward and Nordic Optical Telescope) observatories, are presented and this peculiar $\gamma$-ray flare is studied within the framework of a single-zone leptonic emission scenario.

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arXiv2018

New insights into the outflows from R Aquarii

R Aquarii is a symbiotic binary surrounded by a large and complex nebula with a prominent curved jet. It is one of the closest known symbiotic systems, and therefore offers a unique opportunity to study the central regions of these systems and the formation and evolution of astrophysical jets. We studied the evolution of the central jet and outer nebula of R Aqr taking advantage of a long term monitoring campaign of optical imaging, as well as of high-resolution integral field spectroscopy. Narrow-band images acquired over a period of more than 21 years are compared in order to study the expansion and evolution of all components of the R Aqr nebula. The magnification method is used to derive the kinematic ages of the features that appear to expand radially. Integral field spectroscopy of the OIII 5007A emission is used to study the velocity structure of the central regions of the jet. New extended features, further out than the previously known hourglass nebula, are detected. The kinematic distance to R Aqr is calculated to be 178 pc using the expansion of the large hourglass nebula. This nebula of R Aqr is found to be roughly 650 years old, while the inner regions have ages ranging from 125 to 290 years. The outer nebula is found to be well described by a ballistic expansion, while for most components of the jet strong deviations from such behaviour are found. We find that the Northern jet is mostly red-shifted while its Southern part is blue-shifted, apparently at odds with findings from previous studies but almost certainly a consequence of the complex nature of the jet and variations in ionisation and illumination between observations.

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arXiv2017

The MASIV Survey IV: relationship between intra-day scintillation and intrinsic variability of radio AGNs

We investigate the relationship between 5 GHz interstellar scintillation (ISS) and 15 GHz intrinsic variability of compact, radio-selected AGNs drawn from the Microarcsecond Scintillation-Induced Variability (MASIV) Survey and the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) blazar monitoring program. We discover that the strongest scintillators at 5 GHz (modulation index, $m_5 \geq 0.02$) all exhibit strong 15 GHz intrinsic variability ($m_{15} \geq 0.1$). This relationship can be attributed mainly to the mutual dependence of intrinsic variability and ISS amplitudes on radio core compactness at $\sim 100\, \mu$as scales, and to a lesser extent, on their mutual dependences on source flux density, arcsec-scale core dominance and redshift. However, not all sources displaying strong intrinsic variations show high amplitude scintillation, since ISS is also strongly dependent on Galactic line-of-sight scattering properties. This observed relationship between intrinsic variability and ISS highlights the importance of optimizing the observing frequency, cadence, timespan and sky coverage of future radio variability surveys, such that these two effects can be better distinguished to study the underlying physics. For the full MASIV sample, we find that Fermi-detected gamma-ray loud sources exhibit significantly higher 5 GHz ISS amplitudes than gamma-ray quiet sources. This relationship is weaker than the known correlation between gamma-ray loudness and the 15 GHz variability amplitudes, most likely due to jet opacity effects.

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arXiv2017

Stochastic modeling of multiwavelength variability of the classical BL Lac object OJ 287 on timescales ranging from decades to hours

We present the results of our power spectral density analysis for the BL Lac object OJ\,287, utilizing the {\it Fermi}-LAT survey at high-energy $\gamma$-rays, {\it Swift}-XRT in X-rays, several ground-based telescopes and the {\it Kepler} satellite in the optical, and radio telescopes at GHz frequencies. The light curves are modeled in terms of continuous-time auto-regressive moving average (CARMA) processes. Owing to the inclusion of the {\it Kepler} data, we were able to construct \emph{for the first time} the optical variability power spectrum of a blazar without any gaps across $\sim6$ dex in temporal frequencies. Our analysis reveals that the radio power spectra are of a colored-noise type on timescales ranging from tens of years down to months, with no evidence for breaks or other spectral features. The overall optical power spectrum is also consistent with a colored noise on the variability timescales ranging from 117 years down to hours, with no hints of any quasi-periodic oscillations. The X-ray power spectrum resembles the radio and optical power spectra on the analogous timescales ranging from tens of years down to months. Finally, the $\gamma$-ray power spectrum is noticeably different from the radio, optical, and X-ray power spectra of the source: we have detected a characteristic relaxation timescale in the {\it Fermi}-LAT data, corresponding to $\sim 150$\,days, such that on timescales longer than this, the power spectrum is consistent with uncorrelated (white) noise, while on shorter variability timescales there is correlated (colored) noise.

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arXiv2017

TANAMI: Tracking Active Galactic Nuclei with Austral Milliarcsecond Interferometry - II. Additional Sources

TANAMI is a multiwavelength program monitoring active galactic nuclei (AGN) south of -30deg declination including high-resolution Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) imaging, radio, optical/UV, X-ray and gamma-ray studies. We have previously published first-epoch 8.4GHz VLBI images of the parsec-scale structure of the initial sample. In this paper, we present images of 39 additional sources. The full sample comprises most of the radio- and gamma-ray brightest AGN in the southern quarter of the sky, overlapping with the region from which high-energy (>100TeV) neutrino events have been found. We characterize the parsec-scale radio properties of the jets and compare with the quasi-simultaneous Fermi/LAT gamma-ray data. Furthermore, we study the jet properties of sources which are in positional coincidence with high-energy neutrino events as compared to the full sample. We test the positional agreement of high-energy neutrino events with various AGN samples. Our observations yield the first images of many jets below -30deg declination at milliarcsecond resolution. We find that gamma-ray loud TANAMI sources tend to be more compact on parsec-scales and have higher core brightness temperatures than gamma-ray faint jets, indicating higher Doppler factors. No significant structural difference is found between sources in positional coincidence with high-energy neutrino events and other TANAMI jets. The 22 gamma-ray brightest AGN in the TANAMI sky show only a weak positional agreement with high-energy neutrinos demonstrating that the >100TeV IceCube signal is not simply dominated by a small number of the $\gamma$-ray brightest blazars. Instead, a larger number of sources have to contribute to the signal with each individual source having only a small Poisson probability for producing an event in multi-year integrations of current neutrino detectors.

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