arXiv subjects

Taco Niet

Publications and source records attributed to Taco Niet.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Near-Term Emission Targets Need Immediate Attention in the USA

Given recent changes in federal climate policy, the United States is unlikely to meet its original 2030 Paris Agreement emission target of a 50-52% reduction from 2005 levels. However, rapid near-term abatement remains achievable through targeted multi-sector energy transitions. Extending the open-source energy system model, PyPSA-USA, to perform multi-sector analysis, we evaluate the primary drivers of USA energy costs and emissions though applying global sensitivity analysis. Our results suggest that fossil fuel price volatility is the dominant driver of marginal electricity and energy costs across most of the nation, however, uncoordinated state-level renewable mandates can induce localized cost spikes due to regional bottlenecks. We find that system climate impact (CO2e) is overwhelming sensitive to fugitive methane leakage rates and global warming potential assumptions. Addressing upstream methane leaks will play a crucial role in abating climate-related damages. Finally, demand-side electrification, specifically light-duty electric vehicles and service sector heating, can act as immediate levers for carbon abatement. The results of this work suggest that many of the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy initiatives, that have since been repealed, are effective near-term solutions to reduce exposure to fossil fuel price and mitigate future financial penalties associated with the rising social cost of carbon.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Comprehensive Review on the Control of Heat Pumps for Energy Flexibility in Distribution Networks

Decarbonization plans promote the transition to heat pumps (HPs), creating new opportunities for their energy flexibility in demand response programs, solar photovoltaic integration and optimization of distribution networks. This paper reviews scheduling-based and real-time optimization methods for controlling HPs with a focus on energy flexibility in distribution networks. Scheduling-based methods fall into two categories: rule-based controllers (RBCs), which rely on predefined control rules without explicitly seeking optimal solutions, and optimization models, which are designed to determine the optimal scheduling of operations. Real-time optimization is achieved through model predictive control (MPC), which relies on a predictive model to optimize decisions over a time horizon, and reinforcement learning (RL), which takes a model-free approach by learning optimal strategies through direct interaction with the environment. The paper also examines studies on the impact of HPs on distribution networks, particularly those leveraging energy flexibility strategies. Key takeaways suggest the need to validate control strategies for extreme cold-weather regions that require backup heaters, as well as develop approaches designed for demand charge schemes that integrate HPs with other controllable loads. From a grid impact assessment perspective, studies have focused primarily on RBCs for providing energy flexibility through HP operation, without addressing more advanced methods such as real-time optimization using MPC or RL-based algorithms. Incorporating these advanced control strategies could help identify key limitations, including the impact of varying user participation levels and the cost-benefit trade-offs associated with their implementation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2023

Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal

Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have an exceptionally high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper, we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy (VRE) and its role in power sector decarbonization. We investigate whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net-zero transition by 2050 and how VRE might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the countries' power sectors. Findings show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% higher than previous assessments have shown. Under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net zero by 2050, 17% of this VRE potential is utilized to support the decarbonization of the power sectors. Additional findings show a limited impact of VRE technologies on total power generation output from the hydropower cascade. However, increased solar deployment shifts the operation of the cascade to increased short-term balancing, moving from baseload to more responsive power generation patterns. Prolonged use of thermal power plants is observed under scenarios assuming high wholesale electricity prices, leading to increased emissions. Results from scenarios with low cost of electricity trade suggest power sector developments that lead to decreased energy security.

stat.AP↗