arXiv subjects

Takaaki Ohnishi

Publications and source records attributed to Takaaki Ohnishi.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Identifying dynamical network markers of financial market instability

Market instability has been extensively studied using mathematical approaches to characterize complex trading dynamics and detect structural change points. This study explores the potential for early warning of market instability by applying the Dynamical Network Marker (DNM) theory to order placement and execution data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. DNM theory identifies indicators associated with critical slowing down -- a precursor to critical transitions -- in high-dimensional systems of many interacting elements. In this study, market participants are identified using virtual server IDs from the trading system, and multivariate time series representing their trading activities are constructed. This framework treats each participant as an interacting element, thereby enabling the application of DNM theory to the resulting time series. The results suggest that early warning signals of large price movements can be detected on a daily time scale. These findings highlight the potential to develop practical DNM-based early-warning systems for large price movements by further refining forecasting horizons and integrating multiple time series capturing different aspects of trading behavior.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Learning Characteristics of Reverse Quaternion Neural Network

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new multi-layer feedforward quaternion neural network model architecture, Reverse Quaternion Neural Network which utilizes the non-commutative nature of quaternion products, and to clarify its learning characteristics. While quaternion neural networks have been used in various fields, there has been no research report on the characteristics of multi-layer feedforward quaternion neural networks where weights are applied in the reverse direction. This paper investigates the learning characteristics of the Reverse Quaternion Neural Network from two perspectives: the learning speed and the generalization on rotation. As a result, it is found that the Reverse Quaternion Neural Network has a learning speed comparable to existing models and can obtain a different rotation representation from the existing models.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2023

Gaussian Hierarchical Latent Dirichlet Allocation: Bringing Polysemy Back

Topic models are widely used to discover the latent representation of a set of documents. The two canonical models are latent Dirichlet allocation, and Gaussian latent Dirichlet allocation, where the former uses multinomial distributions over words, and the latter uses multivariate Gaussian distributions over pre-trained word embedding vectors as the latent topic representations, respectively. Compared with latent Dirichlet allocation, Gaussian latent Dirichlet allocation is limited in the sense that it does not capture the polysemy of a word such as ``bank.'' In this paper, we show that Gaussian latent Dirichlet allocation could recover the ability to capture polysemy by introducing a hierarchical structure in the set of topics that the model can use to represent a given document. Our Gaussian hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation significantly improves polysemy detection compared with Gaussian-based models and provides more parsimonious topic representations compared with hierarchical latent Dirichlet allocation. Our extensive quantitative experiments show that our model also achieves better topic coherence and held-out document predictive accuracy over a wide range of corpus and word embedding vectors.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Nondiagonal Mixture of Dirichlet Network Distributions for Analyzing a Stock Ownership Network

Block modeling is widely used in studies on complex networks. The cornerstone model is the stochastic block model (SBM), widely used over the past decades. However, the SBM is limited in analyzing complex networks as the model is, in essence, a random graph model that cannot reproduce the basic properties of many complex networks, such as sparsity and heavy-tailed degree distribution. In this paper, we provide an edge exchangeable block model that incorporates such basic features and simultaneously infers the latent block structure of a given complex network. Our model is a Bayesian nonparametric model that flexibly estimates the number of blocks and takes into account the possibility of unseen nodes. Using one synthetic dataset and one real-world stock ownership dataset, we show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art SBMs for held-out link prediction tasks.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Fractal Patterns in Spatial Distribution of Population by Age Group

Multifractality is one of the patterns observed in spatial distributions of populations. In this study, we performed multifractal analysis for populations by age group in the capital area of Japan. Each population group generally exhibited the property of densely populated locations being relatively connected to each other. We also investigated the dependence of multifractality on the age group. Multifractal measures showed that the group consisting of young working-age people exhibits strong heterogeneity and concentration of population, while the population consisting of elder people exhibits a relatively homogeneous nature.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Weighted Network Analysis of Biologically Relevant Chemical Spaces

In cheminformatics, network representations of the space of compounds have been suggested extensively. Among these, the threshold-network consists of nodes representing molecules. In this network representation, two molecules are connected by a link if the Tanimoto coefficient, a similarity measure, between them exceeds a preset threshold. However, the topology of the threshold-network is affected significantly by the preset threshold. In this study, we collected the data of biologically relevant compounds and bioactivities. We defined the weighted network where the weight of each link between the nodes equals the Tanimoto coefficient between the bioactive compounds (nodes) without using the threshold. We investigated the relationship between the strength of the link connection and the bioactivity closeness in the weighted networks. We found that compounds with significantly high or low bioactivity have a stronger connection than those in the overall network.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2016

The gradual evolution of buyer--seller networks and their role in aggregate fluctuations

Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evidence that interfirm networks evolve reflecting a firm's local decisions to mitigate adverse effects from neighbor firms through interfirm linkage, while enjoying positive effects from them. As a result, link renewal tends to have a positive impact on the growth rates of firms. We also investigate the role of networks in aggregate fluctuations.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2015

Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities

We propose an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news article is novel, as well as an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news item attracts attention from investors. The novelty measure is obtained by comparing the extent to which a particular news article is similar to earlier news articles, and an article is regarded as novel if there was no similar article before it. On the other hand, we say a news item receives a lot of attention and thus is highly topical if it is simultaneously reported by many news agencies and read by many investors who receive news from those agencies. The topicality measure for a news item is obtained by counting the number of news articles whose content is similar to an original news article but which are delivered by other news agencies. To check the performance of the indicators, we empirically examine how these indicators are correlated with intraday financial market indicators such as the number of transactions and price volatility. Specifically, we use a dataset consisting of over 90 million business news articles reported in English and a dataset consisting of minute-by-minute stock prices on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ Stock Market from 2003 to 2014, and show that stock prices and transaction volumes exhibited a significant response to a news article when it is novel and topical.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2015

Structure of global buyer-supplier networks and its implications for conflict minerals regulations

We investigate the structure of global inter-firm linkages using a dataset that contains information on business partners for about 400,000 firms worldwide, including all the firms listed on the major stock exchanges. Among the firms, we examine three networks, which are based on customer-supplier, licensee-licensor, and strategic alliance relationships. First, we show that these networks all have scale-free topology and that the degree distribution for each follows a power law with an exponent of 1.5. The shortest path length is around six for all three networks. Second, we show through community structure analysis that the firms comprise a community with those firms that belong to the same industry but different home countries, indicating the globalization of firms' production activities. Finally, we discuss what such production globalization implies for the proliferation of conflict minerals (i.e., minerals extracted from conflict zones and sold to firms in other countries to perpetuate fighting) through global buyer-supplier linkages. We show that a limited number of firms belonging to some specific industries and countries plays an important role in the global proliferation of conflict minerals. Our numerical simulation shows that regulations on the purchases of conflict minerals by those firms would substantially reduce their worldwide use.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2013

Ecosystems perspective on financial networks: diagnostic tools

The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be a warning sign. Reduction in diversity, which was an essential aspect of the dynamics surrounding the crash in 2008, is seen as a key emergent feature arising naturally from the evolutionary and adaptive dynamics inherent to the financial markets. Similarly, collusion amongst construction firms in a number of regions in Japan in the 2000s can be identified with the formation of clusters of anomalous highly connected companies.

q-fin.RM↗