Snowmass White Paper: Belle II physics reach and plans for the next decade and beyond
Belle II is an experiment operating at the intensity frontier. Over the next decades, it will record the decay of billions of bottom mesons, charm hadrons, and tau leptons produced in 10 GeV electron-positron collisions at the SuperKEKB high-luminosity collider at KEK. These data, collected in low-background and kinematically known conditions, will allow us to measure hundreds of parameters that test the standard model (SM) and probe for the existence of new particles, at mass scales orders of magnitudes higher than those studied at the energy frontier. We project our sensitivities for measurements that are of primary relevance and where Belle II will be unique or world leading for data corresponding to 1 to 50 ab$^{-1}$. Belle II will uniquely probe non-SM contributions in sensitive $b \to q\bar q s$ decays and charmless $b \to q\bar q d(u)$ decays, semileptonic $b \to s \nu \bar\nu$ and $s \tau^+ \tau^-$ decays, fully leptonic $b \to \ell \nu$ decays, and select $c \to u$ processes. Belle II will lead exploration of non-SM physics in $b \to c \tau \nu$ and $b \to s \gamma$ decays and will most precisely determine the quark-mixing parameters $|V_{ub}|$ and $|V_{cb}|$. Belle II will measure many parameters in $\tau$ physics to precisions that will be world leading for the foreseeable future, including the electric and magnetic dipole moments, branching fractions for charged-lepton-flavor-violating decays, and quantities that test lepton-flavor universality. Belle II will perform unique searches for dark-sector particles with masses in the MeV-GeV range. We will also pursue a broad spectroscopy program for conventional and multiquark $c \bar c$ and $b \bar b$ states and provide essential inputs to sharpen the interpretation of muon magnetic-anomaly results. Our exploration of uncharted regions of non-SM parameter space with high precision will reveal non-SM particles or set stringent constraints on their existence, guiding future endeavors.