arXiv subjects

Takuo Matsubara

Publications and source records attributed to Takuo Matsubara.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Wasserstein Exponential Smoothing for Distributional Time Series Forecasting

Distributional time series arise when each temporal observation is a probability distribution rather than a scalar. We propose Wasserstein exponential smoothing (WES), a one-parameter recursive forecasting method for distributional time series on $\mathbb{R}$. The method adapts the practical logic of classical exponential smoothing to probability distributions by updating forecast distributions along Wasserstein geodesics. This yields a simple filter that can be applied directly to empirical distributions without parametric density modeling. We estimate the smoothing parameter by minimizing an in-sample Wasserstein prediction loss and establish consistency under a distributional local-level data-generating process. In applications to high-frequency equity-index return distributions and household electricity-demand distributions, WES attains the lowest one-step-ahead Wasserstein prediction error among existing distributional autoregressive and regression-based benchmarks for all $20$ series considered, and is retained in the $90\%$ model confidence set in every case.

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arXiv2026

Generalised Robust Bayes for Joint Inference of Model and Contamination

Generalised Bayesian inference (GBI) has emerged as a compelling robust alternative to standard Bayesian inference, mitigating sensitivity to data contamination by replacing the log-likelihood with a robust loss or divergence. However, existing robust GBI frameworks typically provide only qualitative robustness: while they can make posterior inference less sensitive to contamination, they lack an intrinsic mechanism to quantify the contamination proportion or identify anomalous observations. This paper introduces Hölder-Bayes, a GBI framework for joint inference of the model parameter and the contamination proportion. We construct a generalised joint posterior over both model and contamination parameter by applying the Hölder divergence to a scaled model density. Theoretically, we establish global bias-robustness via the uniform boundedness of the posterior influence function, derive a finite-sample excess-risk bound, and prove a Bernstein--von Mises approximation together with interpretable contamination-induced bias bounds under a heavy-contamination regime. We further show that, for the Hölder posterior, temperature calibration admits a direct interpretation as affine volume scaling of the data space. The resulting posterior yields a self-contained probabilistic mechanism for outlier detection: posterior uncertainty in both the model parameter and the contamination proportion is propagated to observation-level Frequency-of-Detection scores, without requiring an external anomaly-score threshold. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Hölder-Bayes provides robust parameter inference, contamination-level recovery, and uncertainty-aware outlier detection.

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arXiv2026

Bures-Wasserstein Importance-Weighted Evidence Lower Bound: Exposition and Applications

The Importance-Weighted Evidence Lower Bound (IW-ELBO) has emerged as an effective objective for variational inference (VI), tightening the standard ELBO and mitigating the mode-seeking behaviour. However, optimizing the IW-ELBO in Euclidean space is often inefficient, as its gradient estimators suffer from a vanishing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This paper formulates the optimisation of the IW-ELBO in Bures-Wasserstein space, a manifold of Gaussian distributions equipped with the 2-Wasserstein metric. We derive the Wasserstein gradient of the IW-ELBO and project it onto the Bures-Wasserstein space to yield a tractable algorithm for Gaussian VI. A pivotal contribution of our analysis concerns the stability of the gradient estimator. While the SNR of the standard Euclidean gradient estimator is known to vanish as the number of importance samples $K$ increases, we prove that the SNR of the Wasserstein gradient scales favourably as $Ω(\sqrt{K})$, ensuring optimisation efficiency even for large $K$. We further extend this geometric analysis to the Variational Rényi Importance-Weighted Autoencoder bound, establishing analogous stability guarantees. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves superior approximation performance compared to other baselines.

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arXiv2026

Inversion-Free Natural Gradient Descent on Riemannian Manifolds

The natural gradient method is a central tool for statistical optimisation, but its broader application is hindered by the assumption of a Euclidean parameter space, the repeated estimation of the Fisher information matrix (FIM), and the computational cost of its subsequent inversion. This paper proposes an intrinsic, inversion-free natural gradient method for statistical models whose parameters lie on general Riemannian manifolds. Formulating statistical optimisation in this non-Euclidean setting allows for the natural enforcement of parameter constraints, the elimination of non-identifiable parameters, and the exploitation of geodesic convexity. Our algorithm is based on a moving approximation of the inverse FIM, which is maintained directly on the manifold. This approximation is efficiently updated with new score vectors using low-rank matrix identities. We prove almost-sure convergence rates of $O(\log s / s^α)$ for the sequence of iterates, and a similar rate for the approximate FIM. A limited-memory variant with sub-quadratic storage complexity is further proposed for large-scale applications. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on variational Bayes within the Bures-Wasserstein manifold, normalising flows on the Stiefel manifold, and reduced-rank logistic regression.

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arXiv2026

Maximin Robust Bayesian Experimental Design

We address the brittleness of Bayesian experimental design under model misspecification by formulating the problem as a max--min game between the experimenter and an adversarial nature subject to information-theoretic constraints. We demonstrate that this approach yields a robust objective governed by Sibson's $α$-mutual information (MI), which identifies the $α$-tilted posterior as the robust belief update and establishes the Rényi divergence as the appropriate measure of conditional information gain. To mitigate the bias and variance of nested Monte Carlo estimators needed to estimate Sibson's $α$-MI, we adopt a PAC-Bayes framework to search over stochastic design policies, yielding rigorous high-probability lower bounds on the robust expected information gain that explicitly control finite-sample error.

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arXiv2026

Sampling as Bandits: Evaluation-Efficient Design for Black-Box Densities

We propose bandit importance sampling (BIS), a powerful importance sampling framework tailored for settings in which evaluating the target density is computationally expensive. BIS facilitates accurate sampling while minimizing the required number of target-density evaluations. In contrast to adaptive importance sampling, which optimizes a proposal distribution, BIS directly optimizes the set of samples through a sequential selection process driven by multi-armed bandits. BIS serves as a general framework that accommodates user-defined bandit strategies. Theoretically, the weak convergence of the weighted samples, and thus the consistency of the Monte Carlo estimator, is established regardless of the specific strategy employed. In this paper, we present a practical strategy that leverages Gaussian process surrogates to guide sample selection, adapting the principles of Bayesian optimization for sampling. Comprehensive numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of BIS across multimodal, heavy-tailed distributions, and real-world Bayesian inference tasks involving Markov random fields.

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arXiv2024

Wasserstein Gradient Boosting: A Framework for Distribution-Valued Supervised Learning

Gradient boosting is a sequential ensemble method that fits a new weaker learner to pseudo residuals at each iteration. We propose Wasserstein gradient boosting, a novel extension of gradient boosting that fits a new weak learner to alternative pseudo residuals that are Wasserstein gradients of loss functionals of probability distributions assigned at each input. It solves distribution-valued supervised learning, where the output values of the training dataset are probability distributions for each input. In classification and regression, a model typically returns, for each input, a point estimate of a parameter of a noise distribution specified for a response variable, such as the class probability parameter of a categorical distribution specified for a response label. A main application of Wasserstein gradient boosting in this paper is tree-based evidential learning, which returns a distributional estimate of the response parameter for each input. We empirically demonstrate the superior performance of the probabilistic prediction by Wasserstein gradient boosting in comparison with existing uncertainty quantification methods.

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arXiv2023

Hamiltonian Dynamics of Bayesian Inference Formalised by Arc Hamiltonian Systems

This paper advances theoretical understanding of infinite-dimensional geometrical properties associated with Bayesian inference. First, we introduce a novel class of infinite-dimensional Hamiltonian systems for saddle Hamiltonian functions whose domains are metric spaces. A flow of this system is generated by a Hamiltonian arc field, an analogue of Hamiltonian vector fields formulated based on (i) the first variation of Hamiltonian functions and (ii) the notion of arc fields that extends vector fields to metric spaces. We establish that this system obeys the conservation of energy. We derive a condition for the existence of the flow, which reduces to local Lipschitz continuity of the first variation under sufficient regularity. Second, we present a system of a Hamiltonian function, called the minimum free energy, whose domain is a metric space of negative log-likelihoods and probability measures. The difference of the posterior and the prior of Bayesian inference is characterised as the first variation of the minimum free energy. Our result shows that a transition from the prior to the posterior defines an arc field on a space of probability measures, which forms a Hamiltonian arc field together with another corresponding arc field on a space of negative log-likelihoods. This reveals the underlying invariance of the free energy behind the arc field.

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arXiv2023

Generalised Bayesian Inference for Discrete Intractable Likelihood

Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper addresses this computational challenge through the development of a novel generalised Bayesian inference procedure suitable for discrete intractable likelihood. Inspired by recent methodological advances for continuous data, the main idea is to update beliefs about model parameters using a discrete Fisher divergence, in lieu of the problematic intractable likelihood. The result is a generalised posterior that can be sampled from using standard computational tools, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, circumventing the intractable normalising constant. The statistical properties of the generalised posterior are analysed, with sufficient conditions for posterior consistency and asymptotic normality established. In addition, a novel and general approach to calibration of generalised posteriors is proposed. Applications are presented on lattice models for discrete spatial data and on multivariate models for count data, where in each case the methodology facilitates generalised Bayesian inference at low computational cost.

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arXiv2023

TCE: A Test-Based Approach to Measuring Calibration Error

This paper proposes a new metric to measure the calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers, called test-based calibration error (TCE). TCE incorporates a novel loss function based on a statistical test to examine the extent to which model predictions differ from probabilities estimated from data. It offers (i) a clear interpretation, (ii) a consistent scale that is unaffected by class imbalance, and (iii) an enhanced visual representation with repect to the standard reliability diagram. In addition, we introduce an optimality criterion for the binning procedure of calibration error metrics based on a minimal estimation error of the empirical probabilities. We provide a novel computational algorithm for optimal bins under bin-size constraints. We demonstrate properties of TCE through a range of experiments, including multiple real-world imbalanced datasets and ImageNet 1000.

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arXiv2022

The Ridgelet Prior: A Covariance Function Approach to Prior Specification for Bayesian Neural Networks

Bayesian neural networks attempt to combine the strong predictive performance of neural networks with formal quantification of uncertainty associated with the predictive output in the Bayesian framework. However, it remains unclear how to endow the parameters of the network with a prior distribution that is meaningful when lifted into the output space of the network. A possible solution is proposed that enables the user to posit an appropriate Gaussian process covariance function for the task at hand. Our approach constructs a prior distribution for the parameters of the network, called a ridgelet prior, that approximates the posited Gaussian process in the output space of the network. In contrast to existing work on the connection between neural networks and Gaussian processes, our analysis is non-asymptotic, with finite sample-size error bounds provided. This establishes the universality property that a Bayesian neural network can approximate any Gaussian process whose covariance function is sufficiently regular. Our experimental assessment is limited to a proof-of-concept, where we demonstrate that the ridgelet prior can out-perform an unstructured prior on regression problems for which a suitable Gaussian process prior can be provided.

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arXiv2022

Robust Generalised Bayesian Inference for Intractable Likelihoods

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian inference with a Stein discrepancy as a loss function, motivated by applications in which the likelihood contains an intractable normalisation constant. In this context, the Stein discrepancy circumvents evaluation of the normalisation constant and produces generalised posteriors that are either closed form or accessible using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo. On a theoretical level, we show consistency, asymptotic normality, and bias-robustness of the generalised posterior, highlighting how these properties are impacted by the choice of Stein discrepancy. Then, we provide numerical experiments on a range of intractable distributions, including applications to kernel-based exponential family models and non-Gaussian graphical models.

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arXiv2019

The global optimum of shallow neural network is attained by ridgelet transform

We prove that the global minimum of the backpropagation (BP) training problem of neural networks with an arbitrary nonlinear activation is given by the ridgelet transform. A series of computational experiments show that there exists an interesting similarity between the scatter plot of hidden parameters in a shallow neural network after the BP training and the spectrum of the ridgelet transform. By introducing a continuous model of neural networks, we reduce the training problem to a convex optimization in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space, and obtain the explicit expression of the global optimizer via the ridgelet transform.

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