arXiv subjects

Tal Arbel

Publications and source records attributed to Tal Arbel.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Temporal Prediction of Continuous Disease Trajectories and Treatment Effects Using Neural SDEs

Personalized medicine based on medical images, including predicting future individualized clinical disease progression and treatment response, would have an enormous impact on healthcare and drug development, particularly for diseases (e.g. multiple sclerosis (MS)) with long term, complex, heterogeneous evolutions and no cure. In this work, we present the first stochastic causal temporal framework to model the continuous temporal evolution of disease progression via Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDE). The proposed causal inference model takes as input the patient's high dimensional images (MRI) and tabular data, and predicts both factual and counterfactual progression trajectories on different treatments in latent space. The NSDE permits the estimation of high-confidence personalized trajectories and treatment effects. Extensive experiments were performed on a large, multi-centre, proprietary dataset of patient 3D MRI and clinical data acquired during several randomized clinical trials for MS treatments. Our results present the first successful uncertainty-based causal Deep Learning (DL) model to: (a) accurately predict future patient MS disability evolution (e.g. EDSS) and treatment effects leveraging baseline MRI, and (b) permit the discovery of subgroups of patients for which the model has high confidence in their response to treatment even in clinical trials which did not reach their clinical endpoints.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

DeCoDEx: Confounder Detector Guidance for Improved Diffusion-based Counterfactual Explanations

Deep learning classifiers are prone to latching onto dominant confounders present in a dataset rather than on the causal markers associated with the target class, leading to poor generalization and biased predictions. Although explainability via counterfactual image generation has been successful at exposing the problem, bias mitigation strategies that permit accurate explainability in the presence of dominant and diverse artifacts remain unsolved. In this work, we propose the DeCoDEx framework and show how an external, pre-trained binary artifact detector can be leveraged during inference to guide a diffusion-based counterfactual image generator towards accurate explainability. Experiments on the CheXpert dataset, using both synthetic artifacts and real visual artifacts (support devices), show that the proposed method successfully synthesizes the counterfactual images that change the causal pathology markers associated with Pleural Effusion while preserving or ignoring the visual artifacts. Augmentation of ERM and Group-DRO classifiers with the DeCoDEx generated images substantially improves the results across underrepresented groups that are out of distribution for each class. The code is made publicly available at https://github.com/NimaFathi/DeCoDEx.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Understanding metric-related pitfalls in image analysis validation

Validation metrics are key for the reliable tracking of scientific progress and for bridging the current chasm between artificial intelligence (AI) research and its translation into practice. However, increasing evidence shows that particularly in image analysis, metrics are often chosen inadequately in relation to the underlying research problem. This could be attributed to a lack of accessibility of metric-related knowledge: While taking into account the individual strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of validation metrics is a critical prerequisite to making educated choices, the relevant knowledge is currently scattered and poorly accessible to individual researchers. Based on a multi-stage Delphi process conducted by a multidisciplinary expert consortium as well as extensive community feedback, the present work provides the first reliable and comprehensive common point of access to information on pitfalls related to validation metrics in image analysis. Focusing on biomedical image analysis but with the potential of transfer to other fields, the addressed pitfalls generalize across application domains and are categorized according to a newly created, domain-agnostic taxonomy. To facilitate comprehension, illustrations and specific examples accompany each pitfall. As a structured body of information accessible to researchers of all levels of expertise, this work enhances global comprehension of a key topic in image analysis validation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Metrics reloaded: Recommendations for image analysis validation

Increasing evidence shows that flaws in machine learning (ML) algorithm validation are an underestimated global problem. Particularly in automatic biomedical image analysis, chosen performance metrics often do not reflect the domain interest, thus failing to adequately measure scientific progress and hindering translation of ML techniques into practice. To overcome this, our large international expert consortium created Metrics Reloaded, a comprehensive framework guiding researchers in the problem-aware selection of metrics. Following the convergence of ML methodology across application domains, Metrics Reloaded fosters the convergence of validation methodology. The framework was developed in a multi-stage Delphi process and is based on the novel concept of a problem fingerprint - a structured representation of the given problem that captures all aspects that are relevant for metric selection, from the domain interest to the properties of the target structure(s), data set and algorithm output. Based on the problem fingerprint, users are guided through the process of choosing and applying appropriate validation metrics while being made aware of potential pitfalls. Metrics Reloaded targets image analysis problems that can be interpreted as a classification task at image, object or pixel level, namely image-level classification, object detection, semantic segmentation, and instance segmentation tasks. To improve the user experience, we implemented the framework in the Metrics Reloaded online tool, which also provides a point of access to explore weaknesses, strengths and specific recommendations for the most common validation metrics. The broad applicability of our framework across domains is demonstrated by an instantiation for various biological and medical image analysis use cases.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Common Limitations of Image Processing Metrics: A Picture Story

While the importance of automatic image analysis is continuously increasing, recent meta-research revealed major flaws with respect to algorithm validation. Performance metrics are particularly key for meaningful, objective, and transparent performance assessment and validation of the used automatic algorithms, but relatively little attention has been given to the practical pitfalls when using specific metrics for a given image analysis task. These are typically related to (1) the disregard of inherent metric properties, such as the behaviour in the presence of class imbalance or small target structures, (2) the disregard of inherent data set properties, such as the non-independence of the test cases, and (3) the disregard of the actual biomedical domain interest that the metrics should reflect. This living dynamically document has the purpose to illustrate important limitations of performance metrics commonly applied in the field of image analysis. In this context, it focuses on biomedical image analysis problems that can be phrased as image-level classification, semantic segmentation, instance segmentation, or object detection task. The current version is based on a Delphi process on metrics conducted by an international consortium of image analysis experts from more than 60 institutions worldwide.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2023

Debiasing Counterfactuals In the Presence of Spurious Correlations

Deep learning models can perform well in complex medical imaging classification tasks, even when basing their conclusions on spurious correlations (i.e. confounders), should they be prevalent in the training dataset, rather than on the causal image markers of interest. This would thereby limit their ability to generalize across the population. Explainability based on counterfactual image generation can be used to expose the confounders but does not provide a strategy to mitigate the bias. In this work, we introduce the first end-to-end training framework that integrates both (i) popular debiasing classifiers (e.g. distributionally robust optimization (DRO)) to avoid latching onto the spurious correlations and (ii) counterfactual image generation to unveil generalizable imaging markers of relevance to the task. Additionally, we propose a novel metric, Spurious Correlation Latching Score (SCLS), to quantify the extent of the classifier reliance on the spurious correlation as exposed by the counterfactual images. Through comprehensive experiments on two public datasets (with the simulated and real visual artifacts), we demonstrate that the debiasing method: (i) learns generalizable markers across the population, and (ii) successfully ignores spurious correlations and focuses on the underlying disease pathology.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Improving Image-Based Precision Medicine with Uncertainty-Aware Causal Models

Image-based precision medicine aims to personalize treatment decisions based on an individual's unique imaging features so as to improve their clinical outcome. Machine learning frameworks that integrate uncertainty estimation as part of their treatment recommendations would be safer and more reliable. However, little work has been done in adapting uncertainty estimation techniques and validation metrics for precision medicine. In this paper, we use Bayesian deep learning for estimating the posterior distribution over factual and counterfactual outcomes on several treatments. This allows for estimating the uncertainty for each treatment option and for the individual treatment effects (ITE) between any two treatments. We train and evaluate this model to predict future new and enlarging T2 lesion counts on a large, multi-center dataset of MR brain images of patients with multiple sclerosis, exposed to several treatments during randomized controlled trials. We evaluate the correlation of the uncertainty estimate with the factual error, and, given the lack of ground truth counterfactual outcomes, demonstrate how uncertainty for the ITE prediction relates to bounds on the ITE error. Lastly, we demonstrate how knowledge of uncertainty could modify clinical decision-making to improve individual patient and clinical trial outcomes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Mitigating Calibration Bias Without Fixed Attribute Grouping for Improved Fairness in Medical Imaging Analysis

Trustworthy deployment of deep learning medical imaging models into real-world clinical practice requires that they be calibrated. However, models that are well calibrated overall can still be poorly calibrated for a sub-population, potentially resulting in a clinician unwittingly making poor decisions for this group based on the recommendations of the model. Although methods have been shown to successfully mitigate biases across subgroups in terms of model accuracy, this work focuses on the open problem of mitigating calibration biases in the context of medical image analysis. Our method does not require subgroup attributes during training, permitting the flexibility to mitigate biases for different choices of sensitive attributes without re-training. To this end, we propose a novel two-stage method: Cluster-Focal to first identify poorly calibrated samples, cluster them into groups, and then introduce group-wise focal loss to improve calibration bias. We evaluate our method on skin lesion classification with the public HAM10000 dataset, and on predicting future lesional activity for multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. In addition to considering traditional sensitive attributes (e.g. age, sex) with demographic subgroups, we also consider biases among groups with different image-derived attributes, such as lesion load, which are required in medical image analysis. Our results demonstrate that our method effectively controls calibration error in the worst-performing subgroups while preserving prediction performance, and outperforming recent baselines.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2023

Evaluating the Fairness of Deep Learning Uncertainty Estimates in Medical Image Analysis

Although deep learning (DL) models have shown great success in many medical image analysis tasks, deployment of the resulting models into real clinical contexts requires: (1) that they exhibit robustness and fairness across different sub-populations, and (2) that the confidence in DL model predictions be accurately expressed in the form of uncertainties. Unfortunately, recent studies have indeed shown significant biases in DL models across demographic subgroups (e.g., race, sex, age) in the context of medical image analysis, indicating a lack of fairness in the models. Although several methods have been proposed in the ML literature to mitigate a lack of fairness in DL models, they focus entirely on the absolute performance between groups without considering their effect on uncertainty estimation. In this work, we present the first exploration of the effect of popular fairness models on overcoming biases across subgroups in medical image analysis in terms of bottom-line performance, and their effects on uncertainty quantification. We perform extensive experiments on three different clinically relevant tasks: (i) skin lesion classification, (ii) brain tumour segmentation, and (iii) Alzheimer's disease clinical score regression. Our results indicate that popular ML methods, such as data-balancing and distributionally robust optimization, succeed in mitigating fairness issues in terms of the model performances for some of the tasks. However, this can come at the cost of poor uncertainty estimates associated with the model predictions. This tradeoff must be mitigated if fairness models are to be adopted in medical image analysis.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Rethinking Generalization: The Impact of Annotation Style on Medical Image Segmentation

Generalization is an important attribute of machine learning models, particularly for those that are to be deployed in a medical context, where unreliable predictions can have real world consequences. While the failure of models to generalize across datasets is typically attributed to a mismatch in the data distributions, performance gaps are often a consequence of biases in the 'ground-truth' label annotations. This is particularly important in the context of medical image segmentation of pathological structures (e.g. lesions), where the annotation process is much more subjective, and affected by a number underlying factors, including the annotation protocol, rater education/experience, and clinical aims, among others. In this paper, we show that modeling annotation biases, rather than ignoring them, poses a promising way of accounting for differences in annotation style across datasets. To this end, we propose a generalized conditioning framework to (1) learn and account for different annotation styles across multiple datasets using a single model, (2) identify similar annotation styles across different datasets in order to permit their effective aggregation, and (3) fine-tune a fully trained model to a new annotation style with just a few samples. Next, we present an image-conditioning approach to model annotation styles that correlate with specific image features, potentially enabling detection biases to be more easily identified.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

On Learning Fairness and Accuracy on Multiple Subgroups

We propose an analysis in fair learning that preserves the utility of the data while reducing prediction disparities under the criteria of group sufficiency. We focus on the scenario where the data contains multiple or even many subgroups, each with limited number of samples. As a result, we present a principled method for learning a fair predictor for all subgroups via formulating it as a bilevel objective. Specifically, the subgroup specific predictors are learned in the lower-level through a small amount of data and the fair predictor. In the upper-level, the fair predictor is updated to be close to all subgroup specific predictors. We further prove that such a bilevel objective can effectively control the group sufficiency and generalization error. We evaluate the proposed framework on real-world datasets. Empirical evidence suggests the consistently improved fair predictions, as well as the comparable accuracy to the baselines.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Clinically Plausible Pathology-Anatomy Disentanglement in Patient Brain MRI with Structured Variational Priors

We propose a hierarchically structured variational inference model for accurately disentangling observable evidence of disease (e.g. brain lesions or atrophy) from subject-specific anatomy in brain MRIs. With flexible, partially autoregressive priors, our model (1) addresses the subtle and fine-grained dependencies that typically exist between anatomical and pathological generating factors of an MRI to ensure the clinical validity of generated samples; (2) preserves and disentangles finer pathological details pertaining to a patient's disease state. Additionally, we experiment with an alternative training configuration where we provide supervision to a subset of latent units. It is shown that (1) a partially supervised latent space achieves a higher degree of disentanglement between evidence of disease and subject-specific anatomy; (2) when the prior is formulated with an autoregressive structure, knowledge from the supervision can propagate to the unsupervised latent units, resulting in more informative latent representations capable of modelling anatomy-pathology interdependencies.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Personalized Prediction of Future Lesion Activity and Treatment Effect in Multiple Sclerosis from Baseline MRI

Precision medicine for chronic diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS) involves choosing a treatment which best balances efficacy and side effects/preferences for individual patients. Making this choice as early as possible is important, as delays in finding an effective therapy can lead to irreversible disability accrual. To this end, we present the first deep neural network model for individualized treatment decisions from baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (with clinical information if available) for MS patients. Our model (a) predicts future new and enlarging T2 weighted (NE-T2) lesion counts on follow-up MRI on multiple treatments and (b) estimates the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), as defined by the predicted future suppression of NE-T2 lesions, between different treatment options relative to placebo. Our model is validated on a proprietary federated dataset of 1817 multi-sequence MRIs acquired from MS patients during four multi-centre randomized clinical trials. Our framework achieves high average precision in the binarized regression of future NE-T2 lesions on five different treatments, identifies heterogeneous treatment effects, and provides a personalized treatment recommendation that accounts for treatment-associated risk (e.g. side effects, patient preference, administration difficulties).

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

QU-BraTS: MICCAI BraTS 2020 Challenge on Quantifying Uncertainty in Brain Tumor Segmentation - Analysis of Ranking Scores and Benchmarking Results

Deep learning (DL) models have provided state-of-the-art performance in various medical imaging benchmarking challenges, including the Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) challenges. However, the task of focal pathology multi-compartment segmentation (e.g., tumor and lesion sub-regions) is particularly challenging, and potential errors hinder translating DL models into clinical workflows. Quantifying the reliability of DL model predictions in the form of uncertainties could enable clinical review of the most uncertain regions, thereby building trust and paving the way toward clinical translation. Several uncertainty estimation methods have recently been introduced for DL medical image segmentation tasks. Developing scores to evaluate and compare the performance of uncertainty measures will assist the end-user in making more informed decisions. In this study, we explore and evaluate a score developed during the BraTS 2019 and BraTS 2020 task on uncertainty quantification (QU-BraTS) and designed to assess and rank uncertainty estimates for brain tumor multi-compartment segmentation. This score (1) rewards uncertainty estimates that produce high confidence in correct assertions and those that assign low confidence levels at incorrect assertions, and (2) penalizes uncertainty measures that lead to a higher percentage of under-confident correct assertions. We further benchmark the segmentation uncertainties generated by 14 independent participating teams of QU-BraTS 2020, all of which also participated in the main BraTS segmentation task. Overall, our findings confirm the importance and complementary value that uncertainty estimates provide to segmentation algorithms, highlighting the need for uncertainty quantification in medical image analyses. Finally, in favor of transparency and reproducibility, our evaluation code is made publicly available at: https://github.com/RagMeh11/QU-BraTS.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

Heatmap Regression for Lesion Detection using Pointwise Annotations

In many clinical contexts, detecting all lesions is imperative for evaluating disease activity. Standard approaches pose lesion detection as a segmentation problem despite the time-consuming nature of acquiring segmentation labels. In this paper, we present a lesion detection method which relies only on point labels. Our model, which is trained via heatmap regression, can detect a variable number of lesions in a probabilistic manner. In fact, our proposed post-processing method offers a reliable way of directly estimating the lesion existence uncertainty. Experimental results on Gad lesion detection show our point-based method performs competitively compared to training on expensive segmentation labels. Finally, our detection model provides a suitable pre-training for segmentation. When fine-tuning on only 17 segmentation samples, we achieve comparable performance to training with the full dataset.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

Counterfactual Image Synthesis for Discovery of Personalized Predictive Image Markers

The discovery of patient-specific imaging markers that are predictive of future disease outcomes can help us better understand individual-level heterogeneity of disease evolution. In fact, deep learning models that can provide data-driven personalized markers are much more likely to be adopted in medical practice. In this work, we demonstrate that data-driven biomarker discovery can be achieved through a counterfactual synthesis process. We show how a deep conditional generative model can be used to perturb local imaging features in baseline images that are pertinent to subject-specific future disease evolution and result in a counterfactual image that is expected to have a different future outcome. Candidate biomarkers, therefore, result from examining the set of features that are perturbed in this process. Through several experiments on a large-scale, multi-scanner, multi-center multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) dataset of relapsing-remitting (RRMS) patients, we demonstrate that our model produces counterfactuals with changes in imaging features that reflect established clinical markers predictive of future MRI lesional activity at the population level. Additional qualitative results illustrate that our model has the potential to discover novel and subject-specific predictive markers of future activity.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Information Gain Sampling for Active Learning in Medical Image Classification

Large, annotated datasets are not widely available in medical image analysis due to the prohibitive time, costs, and challenges associated with labelling large datasets. Unlabelled datasets are easier to obtain, and in many contexts, it would be feasible for an expert to provide labels for a small subset of images. This work presents an information-theoretic active learning framework that guides the optimal selection of images from the unlabelled pool to be labeled based on maximizing the expected information gain (EIG) on an evaluation dataset. Experiments are performed on two different medical image classification datasets: multi-class diabetic retinopathy disease scale classification and multi-class skin lesion classification. Results indicate that by adapting EIG to account for class-imbalances, our proposed Adapted Expected Information Gain (AEIG) outperforms several popular baselines including the diversity based CoreSet and uncertainty based maximum entropy sampling. Specifically, AEIG achieves ~95% of overall performance with only 19% of the training data, while other active learning approaches require around 25%. We show that, by careful design choices, our model can be integrated into existing deep learning classifiers.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Optimizing Operating Points for High Performance Lesion Detection and Segmentation Using Lesion Size Reweighting

There are many clinical contexts which require accurate detection and segmentation of all focal pathologies (e.g. lesions, tumours) in patient images. In cases where there are a mix of small and large lesions, standard binary cross entropy loss will result in better segmentation of large lesions at the expense of missing small ones. Adjusting the operating point to accurately detect all lesions generally leads to oversegmentation of large lesions. In this work, we propose a novel reweighing strategy to eliminate this performance gap, increasing small pathology detection performance while maintaining segmentation accuracy. We show that our reweighing strategy vastly outperforms competing strategies based on experiments on a large scale, multi-scanner, multi-center dataset of Multiple Sclerosis patient images.

eess.IV↗