arXiv subjects

Talia Tamarin-Brodsky

Publications and source records attributed to Talia Tamarin-Brodsky.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Future Amplification of Moist Weather Extremes in the Midlatitudes

Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with regions downstream of major highland terrains, including northeastern Asia and eastern North America, emerging as hotspots of future change. Yet their physical drivers remain uncertain. Here we show that the intensification of concurrent moist heat and convection extremes in the midlatitudes is tightly constrained by changes in low-level atmospheric inversions. Specifically, we find that amplified warming over western highlands is transported downstream by prevailing westerlies, strengthening low-level thermal inversions and raising the attainable maxima of moist heat and convection. Targeted model experiments confirm the critical role of orographically elevated heating in driving these extremes. Our results reveal a mechanistic pathway for compound extremes and highlight low-level inversions as a key factor for emerging midlatitude risks of moist heat and severe weather under climate change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

Impacts of Jet Stream Structure on Cyclone Merging and Persistent Anticyclones: Insights from Dry Idealized Simulations

Midlatitude jet streams exhibit substantial variability in latitude, width, and vertical depth on synoptic to multi-decadal timescales. While the upper-level dynamics of baroclinic waves have been extensively studied, the sensitivity of the extreme-generating, low-level phenomena to these variations remains underexplored. Here, we systematically investigate this sensitivity using dry, adiabatic idealized experiments with the GFDL FV3 dry dynamical core initialized with analytically specified jets. We identify jet variations that control synoptic-scale features of interest. Results indicate that poleward-shifted jets accelerate initial cyclone intensification and favor anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB). These wave-breaking tendencies are consistent with established baroclinic paradigms, validating the newly configured idealized simulations. Additionally, jet width regulates the likelihood of surface cyclone merging. Poleward-shifted, broader, and higher jets produce more frequent cyclone merging, generating intense wind extremes. Finally, we show that poleward-shifted, broad, deep jets dynamically precondition the flow for persistent stationary anticyclones in the absence of diabatic contributions. Together, these findings illustrate how changes in jet stream structure may modulate midlatitude weather extremes.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Atmospheric stability sets maximum moist heat and convection in the midlatitudes

Extreme near-surface moist heat and severe convective storms are among the leading causes of weather-related damages worldwide. Here, we show that episodes of extreme moist heat and severe convection frequently co-occur across midlatitude land regions, and develop a theoretical framework that links their maximum potential intensities to preexisting low-level energy inversions. By accounting for the stored-energy nature of midlatitude severe convection, where moist heat and atmospheric instability accumulate before convection initiates, our work advances the understanding of convective constraints on extreme heat events. The theory identifies low-level inversions as a critical factor shaping compound extreme heat and convective weather risks, and offers a pathway for improving the modeling and future projection of these events.

physics.ao-ph↗