arXiv subjects

Talwinder Singh

Publications and source records attributed to Talwinder Singh.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

SuryaBench: Benchmark Dataset for Advancing Machine Learning in Heliophysics and Space Weather Prediction

This paper introduces a high resolution, machine learning-ready heliophysics dataset derived from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), specifically designed to advance machine learning (ML) applications in solar physics and space weather forecasting. The dataset includes processed imagery from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), spanning a solar cycle from May 2010 to July 2024. To ensure suitability for ML tasks, the data has been preprocessed, including correction of spacecraft roll angles, orbital adjustments, exposure normalization, and degradation compensation. We also provide auxiliary application benchmark datasets complementing the core SDO dataset. These provide benchmark applications for central heliophysics and space weather tasks such as active region segmentation, active region emergence forecasting, coronal field extrapolation, solar flare prediction, solar EUV spectra prediction, and solar wind speed estimation. By establishing a unified, standardized data collection, this dataset aims to facilitate benchmarking, enhance reproducibility, and accelerate the development of AI-driven models for critical space weather prediction tasks, bridging gaps between solar physics, machine learning, and operational forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Surya: Foundation Model for Heliophysics

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

The effect of uncertainties in reproducing the ambient solar wind at Earth on forecasting CME arrival times

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major drivers of Space Weather (SWx), so predicting their arrival at Earth is a major aspect of SWx forecasting. Despite increasingly complex models proposed over the past decades, the mean absolute error (MAE) for predictions of CME arrival still surpasses 10 hours. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) techniques trained on the discrepancies between observed and modeled solar wind (SW) at the L1 point, upstream of CMEs, to quantify and ''correct'' the errors in CME Time of Arrival (TOA) associated with these discrepancies. We use CME data from the Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (DONKI) developed by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for our investigation. The WSA-ENLIL-Cone (WEC) model inputs and outputs are available on DONKI for each CME, along with the associated forecast errors. The dataset consists of 122 CME events observed between March 2012 and March 2023. SW properties at L1 and publicly available simulation results based on the WEC model are obtained. Three machine learning (ML) models are employed: 1) k-nearest neighbors (KNN), 2) support vector machine (SVM), and 3) linear regression (LR). Univariate and multivariate ML schemes were developed to examine how individual features and their combinations contribute to reducing the MAE in CME TOA forecasts. The best univariate and multivariate models improved the forecast by 36.6 and 45 minutes, respectively.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Pivot of the Emerging Bipolar Magnetic Region in the Birth of Sigmoidal Solar Active Regions

We present an augmentation to longstanding evidence from observations and MHD modeling that (1) every solar emerging bipolar magnetic region (BMR) is made by an emerging omega-loop flux rope, and (2) twist in the flux-rope field makes the emerged field sigmoidal. Using co-temporal full-disk coronal EUV images, magnetograms, and continuum images from Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we found and tracked the emergence of 42 emerging single-BMR sigmoidal active regions (ARs) that have sunspots in both polarity domains. Throughout each AR's emergence, we quantified the emerging BMR's tilt angle to the east-west direction (the x-direction in SDO images) by measuring in the continuum images the tilt angle of the line through the (visually located) two centroids of the BMR's opposite-polarity sunspot clusters. As each AR emerges, it becomes either S-shaped (shows net right-handed magnetic twist) or Z-shaped (shows net left-handed magnetic twist) in the coronal EUV images. Nineteen of the ARs become S-shaped and 23 become Z-shaped. For all 42 ARs, in agreement with published MHD simulations of the emergence of a single-BMR sigmoidal AR from a subsurface twisted flux rope, if the AR becomes S-shaped, the emerging BMR pivots counterclockwise, and if the AR becomes Z-shaped, the emerging BMR pivots clockwise. For our 42 ARs, the pivot amount roughly ranges from 10{\deg} to 90{\deg} and averages about 35{\deg}. Thus, at the onset of the emergence of our average emerging omega-loop flux rope, the magnetic field's twist pitch angle at the flux rope's top edge is plausibly about 35{\deg}.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of a Coronal Mass Ejection Observed During the Near-radial Alignment of Solar Orbiter and Earth

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) are the primary sources of geomagnetic storms at Earth. Negative out-of-ecliptic component (Bz) of magnetic field in the ICME or its associated sheath region is necessary for it to be geo-effective. For this reason, magnetohydrodynamic simulations of CMEs containing data-constrained flux ropes are more suitable for forecasting their geo-effectiveness as compared to hydrodynamic models of the CME. ICMEs observed in situ by radially aligned spacecraft can provide an important setup to validate the physics-based heliospheric modeling of CMEs. In this work, we use the constant-turn flux rope (CTFR) model to study an ICME that was observed in situ by Solar Orbiter (SolO) and at Earth, when they were in a near-radial alignment. This was a stealth CME that erupted on 2020 April 14 and reached Earth on 2020 April 20 with a weak shock and a smoothly rotating magnetic field signature. We found that the CTFR model was able to reproduce the rotating magnetic field signature at both SolO and Earth with very good accuracy. The simulated ICME arrived 5 hours late at SolO and 5 hours ahead at Earth, when compared to the observed ICME. We compare the propagation of the CME front through the inner heliosphere using synthetic J-maps and those observed in the heliospheric imager data and discuss the role of incorrect ambient SW background on kinematics of the simulated CME. This study supports the choice of the CTFR model for reproducing the magnetic field of ICMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

AI Foundation Model for Heliophysics: Applications, Design, and Implementation

Deep learning-based methods have been widely researched in the areas of language and vision, demonstrating their capacity to understand long sequences of data and their usefulness in numerous helio-physics applications. Foundation models (FMs), which are pre-trained on a large-scale datasets, form the basis for a variety of downstream tasks. These models, especially those based on transformers in vision and language, show exceptional potential for adapting to a wide range of downstream applications. In this paper, we provide our perspective on the criteria for designing an FM for heliophysics and associated challenges and applications using the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) dataset. We believe that this is the first study to design an FM in the domain of heliophysics.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Improving the Arrival Time Estimates of Coronal Mass Ejections by Using Magnetohydrodynamic Ensemble Modeling, Heliospheric Imager data, and Machine Learning

The arrival time prediction of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions remains above 12 hours, even with the increasing complexity of methods. In this work we develop a new method for CME arrival time prediction that uses magnetohydrodynamic simulations involving data-constrained flux-rope-based CMEs, which are introduced in a data-driven solar wind background. We found that, for 6 CMEs studied in this work, the MAE in arrival time was ~8 hours. We further improved our arrival time predictions by using ensemble modeling and comparing the ensemble solutions with STEREO-A&B heliospheric imager data. This was done by using our simulations to create synthetic J-maps. A machine learning (ML) method called the lasso regression was used for this comparison. Using this approach, we could reduce the MAE to ~4 hours. Another ML method based on the neural networks (NNs) made it possible to reduce the MAE to ~5 hours for the cases when HI data from both STEREO-A&B were available. NNs are capable of providing similar MAE when only the STEREO-A data is used. Our methods also resulted in very encouraging values of standard deviation (precision) of arrival time. The methods discussed in this paper demonstrate significant improvements in the CME arrival time predictions. Our work highlights the importance of using ML techniques in combination with data-constrained magnetohydrodynamic modeling to improve space weather predictions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Ensemble simulations of the 12 July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant Turn Flux Rope Model

Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for the prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 12-July-2012 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in post-eruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hour. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings, by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5.74 degrees, 11.23 degrees, 24.71 degrees, and 11.4% respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 12-July-2012 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hours for the 12-July-2012 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 12-July-2012 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce a relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

The Missing Cool Corona in the Flat Magnetic Field around Solar Active Regions

SDO/AIA images the full solar disk in several EUV bands that are each sensitive to coronal plasma emissions of one or more specific temperatures. We observe that when isolated active regions (ARs) are on the disk, full-disk images in some of the coronal EUV channels show the outskirts of the AR as a dark moat surrounding the AR. Here we present seven specific examples, selected from time periods when there was only a single AR present on the disk. Visually, we observe the moat to be most prominent in the AIA 171 Angstrom band, which has the most sensitivity to emission from plasma at log10 T = 5.8. By examining the 1D line-of-sight emission measure temperature distribution found from six AIA EUV channels, we find the intensity of the moat to be most depressed over the temperature range log10 T ~ 5.7 - 6.2 for most of the cases. We argue that the dark moat exists because the pressure from the strong magnetic field that splays out from the AR presses down on underlying magnetic loops, flattening those loops -- along with the lowest of the AR's own loops over the moat -- to a low altitude. Those loops, which would normally emit the bulk of the 171 Angstrom emission, are restricted to heights above the surface that are too low to have 171 Angstrom-emitting plasmas sustained in them, according to Antiochos & Noci (1986), while hotter EUV-emitting plasmas are sustained in the overlying higher-altitude long AR-rooted coronal loops. This potentially explains the low-coronal-temperature dark moats surrounding the ARs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

A Modified Spheromak Model Suitable for Coronal Mass Ejection Simulations

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are one of the primary drivers of extreme space weather. They are large eruptions of mass and magnetic field from the solar corona and can travel the distance between Sun and Earth in half a day to a few days. Predictions of CMEs at 1 Astronomical Unit (AU), in terms of both its arrival time and magnetic field configuration, are very important for predicting space weather. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling of CMEs, using flux-rope-based models is a promising tool for achieving this goal. In this study, we present one such model for CME simulations, based on spheromak magnetic field configuration. We have modified the spheromak solution to allow for independent input of poloidal and toroidal fluxes. The motivation for this is a possibility to estimate these fluxes from solar magnetograms and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) data from a number of different approaches. We estimate the poloidal flux of CME using post eruption arcades (PEAs) and toroidal flux from the coronal dimming. In this modified spheromak, we also have an option to control the helicity sign of flux ropes, which can be derived from the solar disk magnetograms using the magnetic tongue approach. We demonstate the applicability of this model by simulating the 12 July 2012 CME in the solar corona.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Application of a Modified Spheromak Model to Simulations of Coronal Mass Ejection in the Inner Heliosphere

The magnetic fields of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which originate close to the Sun in the form of a flux rope, determine their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, robust flux rope-based models of CMEs are required to perform magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations aimed at space weather predictions. We propose a modified spheromak model and demonstrate its applicability to CME simulations. In this model, such properties of a simulated CME as the poloidal and toroidal magnetic fluxes, and the helicity sign can be controlled with a set of input parameters. We propose a robust technique for introducing CMEs with an appropriate speed into a background, MHD solution describing the solar wind in the inner heliosphere. Through a parametric study, we find that the speed of a CME is much more dependent on its poloidal flux than on the toroidal flux. We also show that the CME speed increases with its total energy, giving us control over its initial speed. We further demonstrate the applicability of this model to simulations of CME-CME collisions. Finally, we use this model to simulate the 12 July 2012 CME and compare the plasma properties at 1 AU with observations. The predicted CME properties agree reasonably with observational data.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Simulating Solar Coronal Mass Ejections constrained by Observations of their Speed and Poloidal flux

We demonstrate how the parameters of a Gibson-Low flux-rope-based coronal mass ejection (CME) can be constrained using remote observations. Our Multi Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) has been used to simulate the propagation of a CME in a data driven solar corona background computed using the photospheric magnetogram data. We constrain the CME model parameters using the observations of such key CME properties as its speed, orientation, and poloidal flux. The speed and orientation are estimated using multi-viewpoint white-light coronagraph images. The reconnected magnetic flux in the area covered by the post eruption arcade is used to estimate the poloidal flux in the CME flux rope. We simulate the partial halo CME on 7 March 2011 to demonstrate the efficiency of our approach. This CME erupted with the speed of 812 km/s and its poloidal flux, as estimated from source active region data, was 4.9e21 Mx. Using our approach, we were able to simulate this CME with the speed 840 km/s and the poloidal flux of 5.1e21 Mx, in remarkable agreement with the observations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Data-constrained Model for Coronal Mass Ejections Using Graduated Cylindrical Shell Method

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of extreme space weather conditions, this being a matter of serious concern for our modern technologically-dependent society. Development of numerical approaches that would simulate CME generation and propagation through the interplanetary space is an important step towards our capability to predict CME arrival times at Earth and their geo-effectiveness. In this paper, we utilize a data-constrained Gibson--Low (GL) flux rope model to generate CMEs. We derive the geometry of the initial GL flux rope using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) method. This method uses multiple viewpoints from STEREO A & B Cor1/Cor2, and SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs to determine the size and orientation of a CME flux rope as it starts to erupt from the Sun. A flux rope generated in this way is inserted into a quasi-steady global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) background solar wind flow driven by SDO/HMI line-of-sight magnetogram data, and erupts immediately. Numerical results obtained with the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) code are compared with STEREO and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph observations in particular in terms of the CME speed, acceleration, and magnetic field structure.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Propagation of MRT Unstable Plasma Spikes in the Inter-planetary Space

We have used the Coronagraphic and Heliospheric Imaging data from Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) to observe a prominence which is erupted on June 7th, 2011. This prominence is subjected to the morphological evolution of MRT instability from the lower solar corona upto the inter-planetary space. The unstable structures are converted into the bunch of localized plasma spikes due to the turbulent mixing, and propagate in the inter-planetary space upto 1 A.U.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Evolution of Magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor Instability into the Outer Solar Corona and Low Inter Planetary Space

We analyze the observations from Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-A\&B/COR-1 of an eruptive prominence in the intermediate corona on 7 June 2011 at 08:45 UT, which consists of magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor (MRT) unstable plasma segments. Its upper northward segment shows spatio-temporal evolution of MRT instability in form of finger structures upto the outer corona and low inter-planetary space. Using method of Dolei et al.(2014), It is estimated that the density in each bright finger is greater than corresponding dark region lying below of it in the surrounding intermediate corona. The instability is evolved due to wave perturbations that are parallel to the magnetic field at the density interface. We conjecture that the prominence plasma is supported by tension component of the magnetic field against gravity. Using linear stability theory, magnetic field is estimated as 21-40 mG to suppress growth of MRT in the observed finger structures. In the southward plasma segment, a horn-like structure is observed at 11:55 UT in the intermediate corona that also indicates MRT instability. Falling blobs are also observed in both the plasma segments. In the outer corona upto 6-13 solar radii, the mushroom-like plasma structures have been identified in the upper northward MRT unstable plasma segment using STEREO-A/COR-2. These structures most likely grew due to the breaking and twisting of fingers at large spatial scales in weaker magnetic fields. In the lower inter-planetary space upto 20 solar radii, these structures are fragmented into various small-scale localized plasma spikes most likely due to turbulent mixing.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Inference of Magnetic Field in the Coronal Streamer Invoking Kink Wave Motions generated by Multiple EUV Waves

Using MHD seismology by observed kink waves, the magnetic field profile of a coronal streamer has been investigated. STEREO-B/EUVI temporal image data on 7 March 2012 shows an evolution of two consecutive EUV waves that interact with the footpoint of a coronal streamer evident in the co-spatial and co-temporal STEREO-B/COR-I observations. The evolution of EUV waves is clearly evident in STEREO-B/EUVI, and its energy exchange with coronal streamer generates kink oscillations. We estimate the phase velocities of the kink wave perturbations by tracking it at different heights of the coronal streamer. We also estimate the electron densities inside and outside the streamer using SSI of polarized brightness images in STEREO-B/COR-1 observations. Taking into account the MHD theory of kink waves in a cylindrical waveguide, their observed properties at various heights, and density contrast of the streamer, we estimate the radial profile of magnetic field within this magnetic structure. Both the kink waves diagnose the exponentially decaying radial profiles of the magnetic field in coronal steamer upto 3 solar radii. Within the limit of uncertainties in the measurements, it is indicated that coronal magnetic field of the streamer varies slowly in time at various heights, although its nature always remains exponentially decaying. It is seen that during the evolution of second kink motion in the streamer, it increases in brightness, and also in areal extent slightly, which may be associated with the decreased photospheric magnetic flux at its footpoint. As a result, the magnetic field profile produced by the second kink wave is reduced within the streamer compared to the one diagnosed by the first one. The precisely estimated magnetic field profiles with the uncertainty less than 10% match well with the empirical profile and various observational estimations of the outer coronal magnetic field.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Kinematics of Interacting CMEs of September 25 and 28, 2012

We have studied two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that occurred on September 25 and 28, 2012 and interacted near the Earth. By fitting the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model on the SECCHI/COR2 images and applying the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) method on the SECCHI/HI images, the initial direction of both the CMEs is estimated to be west of the Sun-Earth line. Further, the three-dimensional (3D) heliospheric kinematics of these CMEs have been estimated using Self-Similar Expansion (SSE) reconstruction method. We show that use of SSE method with different values of angular extent of the CMEs, leads to significantly different kinematics estimates for the CMEs propagating away from the observer. Using the estimated kinematics and true masses of the CMEs, we have derived the coefficient of restitution for the collision which is found to be close to elastic. The in situ measurements at 1 AU show two distinct structures of interplanetary CMEs, heating of the following CME, as well as ongoing interaction between the preceding and the following CME. We highlight the signatures of interaction in remote and in situ observations of these CMEs and the role of interaction in producing a major geomagnetic storm.

astro-ph.SR↗