arXiv subjects

Tao Xiong

Publications and source records attributed to Tao Xiong.

62 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2014

Exploring gender differences on general and specific computer self-efficacy in mobile learning adoption

Reasons for contradictory findings regarding the gender moderate effect on computer self-efficacy in the adoption of e-learning/mobile learning are limited. Recognizing the multilevel nature of the computer self-efficacy (CSE), this study attempts to explore gender differences in the adoption of mobile learning, by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) with general and specific CSE. Data collected from 137 university students were tested against the research model using the structural equation modeling approach. The results suggest that there are significant gender differences in perceptions of general CSE, perceived ease of use and behavioral intention to use but no significant differences in specific CSE, perceived usefulness. Additionally, the findings reveal that specific CSE is more salient than general CSE in influencing perceived ease of use while general CSE seems to be the salient factor on perceived usefulness for both female and male combined. Moreover, general CSE was salient to determine the behavioral intention to use indirectly for female despite lower perception of general CSE than male's, and specific CSE exhibited stronger indirect effect on behavioral intention to use than general CSE for female despite similar perception of specific CSE as males'. These findings provide important implications for mobile learning adoption and usage.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2014

Does Restraining End Effect Matter in EMD-Based Modeling Framework for Time Series Prediction? Some Experimental Evidences

Following the "decomposition-and-ensemble" principle, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-based modeling framework has been widely used as a promising alternative for nonlinear and nonstationary time series modeling and prediction. The end effect, which occurs during the sifting process of EMD and is apt to distort the decomposed sub-series and hurt the modeling process followed, however, has been ignored in previous studies. Addressing the end effect issue, this study proposes to incorporate end condition methods into EMD-based decomposition and ensemble modeling framework for one- and multi-step ahead time series prediction. Four well-established end condition methods, Mirror method, Coughlin's method, Slope-based method, and Rato's method, are selected, and support vector regression (SVR) is employed as the modeling technique. For the purpose of justification and comparison, well-known NN3 competition data sets are used and four well-established prediction models are selected as benchmarks. The experimental results demonstrated that significant improvement can be achieved by the proposed EMD-based SVR models with end condition methods. The EMD-SBM-SVR model and EMD-Rato-SVR model, in particular, achieved the best prediction performances in terms of goodness of forecast measures and equality of accuracy of competing forecasts test.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2014

Multi-Step-Ahead Time Series Prediction using Multiple-Output Support Vector Regression

Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterated strategy or direct strategy. This study proposes a novel multiple-step-ahead time series prediction approach which employs multiple-output support vector regression (M-SVR) with multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) prediction strategy. In addition, the rank of three leading prediction strategies with SVR is comparatively examined, providing practical implications on the selection of the prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting while taking SVR as modeling technique. The proposed approach is validated with the simulated and real datasets. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of the prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results indicate that: 1) the M-SVR using MIMO strategy achieves the best accurate forecasts with accredited computational load, 2) the standard SVR using direct strategy achieves the second best accurate forecasts, but with the most expensive computational cost, and 3) the standard SVR using iterated strategy is the worst in terms of prediction accuracy, but with the least computational cost.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Multiple-output support vector regression with a firefly algorithm for interval-valued stock price index forecasting

Highly accurate interval forecasting of a stock price index is fundamental to successfully making a profit when making investment decisions, by providing a range of values rather than a point estimate. In this study, we investigate the possibility of forecasting an interval-valued stock price index series over short and long horizons using multi-output support vector regression (MSVR). Furthermore, this study proposes a firefly algorithm (FA)-based approach, built on the established MSVR, for determining the parameters of MSVR (abbreviated as FA-MSVR). Three globally traded broad market indices are used to compare the performance of the proposed FA-MSVR method with selected counterparts. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of statistical criteria, economic criteria, and computational cost. In terms of statistical criteria, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting using goodness-of-forecast measures and testing approaches. In terms of economic criteria, we assess the relative forecast performance with a simple trading strategy. The results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed FA-MSVR method is a promising alternative for forecasting interval-valued financial time series.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2014

A PSO and Pattern Search based Memetic Algorithm for SVMs Parameters Optimization

Addressing the issue of SVMs parameters optimization, this study proposes an efficient memetic algorithm based on Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) and Pattern Search (PS). In the proposed memetic algorithm, PSO is responsible for exploration of the search space and the detection of the potential regions with optimum solutions, while pattern search (PS) is used to produce an effective exploitation on the potential regions obtained by PSO. Moreover, a novel probabilistic selection strategy is proposed to select the appropriate individuals among the current population to undergo local refinement, keeping a well balance between exploration and exploitation. Experimental results confirm that the local refinement with PS and our proposed selection strategy are effective, and finally demonstrate effectiveness and robustness of the proposed PSO-PS based MA for SVMs parameters optimization.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Beyond One-Step-Ahead Forecasting: Evaluation of Alternative Multi-Step-Ahead Forecasting Models for Crude Oil Prices

An accurate prediction of crude oil prices over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to governments, enterprises, and investors. This paper proposes a revised hybrid model built upon empirical mode decomposition (EMD) based on the feed-forward neural network (FNN) modeling framework incorporating the slope-based method (SBM), which is capable of capturing the complex dynamic of crude oil prices. Three commonly used multi-step-ahead prediction strategies proposed in the literature, including iterated strategy, direct strategy, and MIMO (multiple-input multiple-output) strategy, are examined and compared, and practical considerations for the selection of a prediction strategy for multi-step-ahead forecasting relating to crude oil prices are identified. The weekly data from the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil spot price are used to compare the performance of the alternative models under the EMD-SBM-FNN modeling framework with selected counterparts. The quantitative and comprehensive assessments are performed on the basis of prediction accuracy and computational cost. The results obtained in this study indicate that the proposed EMD-SBM-FNN model using the MIMO strategy is the best in terms of prediction accuracy with accredited computational load.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2013

PSO-MISMO Modeling Strategy for Multi-Step-Ahead Time Series Prediction

Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, exhibiting advantages compared with the two currently dominating strategies, the iterated and the direct strategies. Built on the established MISMO strategy, this study proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based MISMO modeling strategy, which is capable of determining the number of sub-models in a self-adaptive mode, with varying prediction horizons. Rather than deriving crisp divides with equal-size s prediction horizons from the established MISMO, the proposed PSO-MISMO strategy, implemented with neural networks, employs a heuristic to create flexible divides with varying sizes of prediction horizons and to generate corresponding sub-models, providing considerable flexibility in model construction, which has been validated with simulated and real datasets.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2013

High Order Asymptotic Preserving DG-IMEX Schemes for Discrete-Velocity Kinetic Equations in a Diffusive Scaling

In this paper, we develop a family of high order asymptotic preserving schemes for some discrete-velocity kinetic equations under a diffusive scaling, that in the asymptotic limit lead to macroscopic models such as the heat equation, the porous media equation, the advection-diffusion equation, and the viscous Burgers equation. Our approach is based on the micro-macro reformulation of the kinetic equation which involves a natural decomposition of the equation to the equilibrium and non-equilibrium parts. To achieve high order accuracy and uniform stability as well as to capture the correct asymptotic limit, two new ingredients are employed in the proposed methods: discontinuous Galerkin spatial discretization of arbitrary order of accuracy with suitable numerical fluxes; high order globally stiffly accurate implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta scheme in time equipped with a properly chosen implicit-explicit strategy. Formal asymptotic analysis shows that the proposed scheme in the limit of epsilon -> 0 is an explicit, consistent and high order discretization for the limiting equation. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the stability and high order accuracy of the proposed schemes together with their performance in the limit.

math.NA↗