arXiv subjects

Tatiana Gonzalez Grandon

Publications and source records attributed to Tatiana Gonzalez Grandon.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Towards Quantum Stochastic Optimization for Energy Systems under Uncertainty: Joint Chance Constraints with Quantum Annealing

Uncertainty is fundamental in modern power systems, where renewable generation and fluctuating demand make stochastic optimization indispensable. The chance constrained unit commitment problem (UCP) captures this uncertainty but rapidly becomes computationally challenging as the number of scenarios grows. Quantum computing has been proposed as a potential route to overcome such scaling barriers. In this work, we evaluate the applicability of quantum annealing platforms to the chance constrained UCP. Focusing on a scenario approximation, we reformulated the problem as a mixed integer linear program and solved it using DWave hybrid quantum classical solver alongside Gurobi. The hybrid solver proved competitive under strict runtime limits for large scenario sets (15,000 in our experiments), while Gurobi remained superior on smaller cases. QUBO reformulations were also tested, but current annealers cannot accommodate stochastic UCPs due to hardware limits, and deterministic cases suffered from embedding overhead. Our study delineates where chance constrained UCPs can already be addressed with hybrid quantum classical methods, and where current quantum annealers remain fundamentally limited.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2023

Electricity Demand Forecasting with Hybrid Statistical and Machine Learning Algorithms: Case Study of Ukraine

This article presents a novel hybrid approach using statistics and machine learning to forecast the national demand of electricity. As investment and operation of future energy systems require long-term electricity demand forecasts with hourly resolution, our mathematical model fills a gap in energy forecasting. The proposed methodology was constructed using hourly data from Ukraine's electricity consumption ranging from 2013 to 2020. To this end, we analysed the underlying structure of the hourly, daily and yearly time series of electricity consumption. The long-term yearly trend is evaluated using macroeconomic regression analysis. The mid-term model integrates temperature and calendar regressors to describe the underlying structure, and combines ARIMA and LSTM ``black-box'' pattern-based approaches to describe the error term. The short-term model captures the hourly seasonality through calendar regressors and multiple ARMA models for the residual. Results show that the best forecasting model is composed by combining multiple regression models and a LSTM hybrid model for residual prediction. Our hybrid model is very effective at forecasting long-term electricity consumption on an hourly resolution. In two years of out-of-sample forecasts with 17520 timesteps, it is shown to be within 96.83 \% accuracy.

cs.LG↗