arXiv subjects

Tatsuya Itoi

Publications and source records attributed to Tatsuya Itoi.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Finite element model updating of building structures under seismic excitation: A parallelized latent space-based Bayesian framework

Enhancing seismic fragility and risk assessment of nuclear power plants relies on accurate prediction of reactor building responses to seismic hazards, which can be further improved through dynamic analysis of high-fidelity finite element (FE) models. However, FE models often exhibit non-negligible discrepancies from actual structures due to various sources of uncertainty, necessitating FE model updating with rigorous quantification of associated uncertainties. This paper presents a GPU-accelerated latent space--based Bayesian framework for FE model updating of building structures. In the proposed framework, high-dimensional structural response data (e.g., time histories or frequency response functions) are projected into a low-dimensional latent space using a multimodal variational autoencoder (MVAE), thereby enabling efficient and tractable likelihood evaluation without explicit modeling in the original observation space. Once trained, the surrogate enables amortized inference, allowing posterior sampling to be performed without additional simulator evaluations. We specifically employ a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, whose population-based formulation allows parallel evaluation of the approximate likelihood on GPUs, resulting in computational efficiency and robustness against multimodal and complex posterior distributions. The proposed framework is validated through both numerical benchmarking and experimental data from a shaking table test of a reinforced concrete building structure. The results demonstrate that the method accurately estimates structural parameters with well-quantified uncertainties, while achieving fast and efficient inference through GPU-based parallelization, and enabling robust inference even in the presence of sparse observations that induce multimodal and highly complex posterior distributions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Hierarchical Bayesian model updating using Dirichlet process mixtures for structural damage localization

Bayesian model updating provides a rigorous probabilistic framework for calibrating finite element (FE) models with quantified uncertainties, thereby enhancing damage assessment, response prediction, and performance evaluation of engineering structures. Recent advances in hierarchical Bayesian model updating (HBMU) enable robust parameter estimation under ill-posed/ill-conditioned settings and in the presence of inherent variability in structural parameters due to environmental and operational conditions. However, most HBMU approaches overlook multimodality in structural parameters that often arises when a structure experiences multiple damage states over its service life. This paper presents an HBMU framework that employs a Dirichlet process (DP) mixture prior on structural parameters (DP-HBMU). DP mixtures are nonparametric Bayesian models that perform clustering without pre-specifying the number of clusters, incorporating damage state classification into FE model updating. We formulate the DP-HBMU framework and devise a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler that draws samples from the posterior by embedding Metropolis updates for intractable conditionals due to the FE simulator. The applicability of DP-HBMU to damage localization is demonstrated through both numerical and experimental examples. We consider moment-resisting frame structures with beam-end fractures and apply the method to datasets spanning multiple damage states, from an intact state to moderate or severe damage state. The clusters inferred by DP-HBMU align closely with the assumed or observed damage states. The posterior distributions of stiffness parameters agree with ground truth values or observed fractures while exhibiting substantially reduced uncertainty relative to a non-hierarchical baseline. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in damage localization.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Transfer Learning-Based Surrogate Modeling for Nonlinear Time-History Response Analysis of High-Fidelity Structural Models

In a performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, nonlinear time-history response analysis (NLTHA) for numerous ground motions are required to assess the seismic risk of buildings or civil engineering structures. However, such numerical simulations are computationally expensive, limiting the real-world practical application of the framework. To address this issue, previous studies have used machine learning to predict the structural responses to ground motions with low computational costs. These studies typically conduct NLTHAs for a few hundreds ground motions and use the results to train and validate surrogate models. However, most of the previous studies focused on computationally-inexpensive response analysis models such as single degree of freedom. Surrogate models of high-fidelity response analysis are required to enrich the quantity and diversity of information used for damage assessment in PBEE. Notably, the computational cost of creating training and validation datasets increases if the fidelity of response analysis model becomes higher. Therefore, methods that enable surrogate modeling of high-fidelity response analysis without a large number of training samples are needed. This study proposes a framework that uses transfer learning to construct the surrogate model of a high-fidelity response analysis model. This framework uses a surrogate model of low-fidelity response analysis as the pretrained model and transfers its knowledge to construct surrogate models for high-fidelity response analysis with substantially reduced computational cost. As a case study, surrogate models that predict responses of a 20-story steel moment frame were constructed with only 20 samples as the training dataset. The responses to the ground motions predicted by constructed surrogate model were consistent with a site-specific time-based hazard.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

Waveform-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Ground-Motion Generative Models

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the exceedance probability of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is typically evaluated. However, in recent years, dynamic response analyses using ground-motion time histories as input have been increasingly common in seismic design and risk assessment, and thus there is a growing demand for representing seismic hazard in terms of ground-motion waveforms. In this study, we propose a novel PSHA framework, referred to as waveform-based PSHA, that enables the direct evaluation of the probability distribution of ground-motion waveforms by introducing ground-motion models (GMMs) based on deep generative models (ground-motion generative models; GMGMs) into the PSHA framework. In waveform-based PSHA, seismic hazard is represented, in a Monte Carlo sense, as a set of ground-motion waveforms. We propose the formulation of such a PSHA framework as well as an algorithm for performing the required Monte Carlo simulations. Three different GMGMs based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) are constructed. After verifying the performance of each GMGM, hazard evaluations using the proposed method are conducted for two numerical examples: one assuming a hypothetical area source and the other assuming an actual site and source faults in Japan. We demonstrate that seismic hazard can be represented as a set of ground-motion waveforms, and that the IM-based hazard obtained from these waveforms is consistent with the results of conventional PSHA using GMMs. Finally, nonlinear dynamic response analyses of a building model are performed using the evaluated seismic hazard as input, and it is shown that exceedance probabilities of engineering demand parameters (EDPs) as well as hazard disaggregation with respect to EDPs can be carried out in a straightforward manner within the proposed framework.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Latent Space-Based Likelihood Estimation Using a Single Observation for Bayesian Updating of a Nonlinear Hysteretic Model

This study presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties in Bayesian model updating, which is effective in sparse or single observations. Conventional uncertainty quantification metrics such as the Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distance-based metrics are potential in scenarios with ample observations. However, their validation is limited in situations with insufficient data, particularly for nonlinear responses like post-yield behavior. Our method addresses this challenge by using the latent space of a Variational Auto-encoder (VAE), a generative model that enables nonparametric likelihood evaluation. This approach is valuable in updating model parameters based on nonlinear seismic responses of structure, wherein data scarcity is a common challenge. Our numerical experiments confirm the ability of the proposed method to accurately update parameters and quantify uncertainties using limited observations. Additionally, these numerical experiments reveal a tendency for increased information about nonlinear behavior to result in decreased uncertainty in terms of estimations. This study provides a robust tool for quantifying uncertainty in scenarios characterized by considerable uncertainty, thereby expanding the applicability of Bayesian updating methods in data-constrained environments.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Latent Space-based Stochastic Model Updating

Model updating of engineering systems inevitably involves handling both aleatory or inherent randomness and epistemic uncertainties or uncertainities arising from a lack of knowledge or information about the system. Addressing these uncertainties poses significant challenges, particularly when data and simulations are limited. This study proposes a novel latent space-based method for stochastic model updating that leverages limited data to effectively quantify uncertainties in engineering applications. By extending the latent space-based approach to multiobservation and multisimulation frameworks, the proposed method circumvents the need for probability estimations at each iteration of MCMC, relying instead on an amortized probabilistic model trained using a variational autoencoder (VAE). This method was validated through numerical experiments on a two-degree-of-freedom shear spring model, demonstrating superior efficiency and accuracy compared to existing methods in terms of uncertainty quantification (UQ) metrics, such as Bhattacharyya and Euclidean distances. Moreover, the applicability of the method to time-series data was verified using the model calibration problem of the NASA UQ Challenge 2019. The results underscore the potential of the latent space-based method in practical engineering applications, providing a robust framework for uncertainty quantification with fewer data requirements, and demonstrating its effectiveness in handling high-dimensional data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Stress Resultant-Based Approach to Mass Assumption-Free Bayesian Model Updating of Frame Structures

Bayesian model updating facilitates the calibration of analytical models based on observations and the quantification of uncertainties in model parameters such as stiffness and mass. This process significantly enhances damage assessment and response predictions in existing civil structures. Predominantly, current methods employ modal properties identified from acceleration measurements to evaluate the likelihood of the model parameters. This modal analysis-based likelihood generally involves a prior assumption regarding the mass parameters. In civil structures, accurate determination of mass parameters proves challenging owing to the significant uncertainty and time-varying nature of imposed loads. The resulting inaccuracy potentially introduces biases while estimating the stiffness parameters, which affects the assessment of structural response and associated damage. Addressing this issue, the present study introduces a stress-resultant-based approach for Bayesian model updating independent of mass assumptions. This approach utilizes system identification on strain and acceleration measurements to establish the relationship between nodal displacements and elemental stress resultants. Employing static analysis to depict this relationship aids in assessing the likelihood of stiffness parameters. Integrating this static-analysis-based likelihood with a modal-analysis-based likelihood facilitates the simultaneous estimation of mass and stiffness parameters. The proposed approach was validated using numerical examples on a planar frame and experimental studies on a full-scale moment-resisting steel frame structure.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Bayesian Structural Model Updating with Multimodal Variational Autoencoder

A novel framework for Bayesian structural model updating is presented in this study. The proposed method utilizes the surrogate unimodal encoders of a multimodal variational autoencoder (VAE). The method facilitates an approximation of the likelihood when dealing with a small number of observations. It is particularly suitable for high-dimensional correlated simultaneous observations applicable to various dynamic analysis models. The proposed approach was benchmarked using a numerical model of a single-story frame building with acceleration and dynamic strain measurements. Additionally, an example involving a Bayesian update of nonlinear model parameters for a three-degree-of-freedom lumped mass model demonstrates computational efficiency when compared to using the original VAE, while maintaining adequate accuracy for practical applications.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Site-Specific Ground Motion Generative Model for Crustal Earthquakes in Japan Based on Generative Adversarial Networks

We develop a site-specific ground-motion model (GMM) for crustal earthquakes in Japan that can directly model the probability distribution of ground motion acceleration time histories based on generative adversarial networks (GANs). The proposed model can generate ground motions conditioned on moment magnitude, rupture distance, and detailed site conditions defined by the average shear-wave velocity in the top 5 m, 10 m, and 20 m ($V_{\mathrm{S}5}$, $V_{\mathrm{S}10}$, $V_{\mathrm{S}20}$) and the depth to shear-wave velocities of 1.0 km/s and 1.4 km/s ($Z_{1.0}$, $Z_{1.4}$). We construct the neural networks based on styleGAN2 and introduce a novel neural network architecture to generate ground motions considering the effect of source, path, and such detailed site conditions. 5% damped spectral acceleration of ground motions generated by the proposed GMM is consistent with empirical GMMs in terms of magnitude and distance scaling. The proposed GMM can also generate ground motions accounting for the shear-wave velocity profiles of surface soil with different magnitudes and distances, and represent characteristic that are not explained solely by $V_{\mathrm{S}30}$.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2024

Probabilistic Model Updating of Steel Frame Structures Using Strain and Acceleration Measurements: A Multitask Learning Framework

This paper proposes a multitask learning framework for probabilistic model updating by jointly using strain and acceleration measurements. This framework can enhance the structural damage assessment and response prediction of existing steel frame structures with quantified uncertainty. Multitask learning may be used to address multiple similar inference tasks simultaneously to achieve a more robust prediction performance by transferring useful knowledge from one task to another, even in situations of data scarcity. In the proposed model-updating procedure, a spatial frame is decomposed into multiple planar frames that are viewed as multiple tasks and jointly analyzed based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, leading to robust estimation results. The procedure uses a displacement-stress relationship in the modal space because it directly reflects the elemental stiffness and requires no prior knowledge concerning the mass, unlike most existing model-updating techniques. Validation of the proposed framework by using a full-scale vibration test on a one-story, one-bay by one-bay moment resisting steel frame, wherein structural damage to the column bases is simulated by loosening the anchor bolts, is presented. The experimental results suggest that the displacement-stress relationship has sufficient sensitivity toward localized damage, and the Bayesian multitask learning approach may result in the efficient use of measurements such that the uncertainty involved in model parameter estimation is reduced. The proposed framework facilitates more robust and informative model updating.

stat.AP↗