arXiv subjects

Teddy Lazebnik

Publications and source records attributed to Teddy Lazebnik.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2024

Evaluating Supply Chain Resilience During Pandemic Using Agent-based Simulation

Recent pandemics have highlighted vulnerabilities in our global economic systems, especially supply chains. Possible future pandemic raises a dilemma for businesses owners between short-term profitability and long-term supply chain resilience planning. In this study, we propose a novel agent-based simulation model integrating extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model and supply and demand economic model to evaluate supply chain resilience strategies during pandemics. Using this model, we explore a range of supply chain resilience strategies under pandemic scenarios using in silico experiments. We find that a balanced approach to supply chain resilience performs better in both pandemic and non-pandemic times compared to extreme strategies, highlighting the importance of preparedness in the form of a better supply chain resilience. However, our analysis shows that the exact supply chain resilience strategy is hard to obtain for each firm and is relatively sensitive to the exact profile of the pandemic and economic state at the beginning of the pandemic. As such, we used a machine learning model that uses the agent-based simulation to estimate a near-optimal supply chain resilience strategy for a firm. The proposed model offers insights for policymakers and businesses to enhance supply chain resilience in the face of future pandemics, contributing to understanding the trade-offs between short-term gains and long-term sustainability in supply chain management before and during pandemics.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Economical-Epidemiological Analysis of the Coffee Trees Rust Pandemic

Coffee leaf rust is a prevalent botanical disease that causes a worldwide reduction in coffee supply and its quality, leading to immense economic losses. While several pandemic intervention policies (PIPs) for tackling this rust pandemic are commercially available, they seem to provide only partial epidemiological relief for farmers. In this work, we develop a high-resolution economical-epidemiological model that captures the rust pandemic's spread in coffee tree farms and its associated economic impact. Through extensive simulations for the case of Colombia, a country that consists mostly of small-size coffee farms and is the second-largest coffee producer in the world, our results show that it is economically impractical to sustain any profit without directly tackling the rust pandemic. Furthermore, even in the hypothetical case where farmers perfectly know their farm's epidemiological state and the weather in advance, any rust pandemic-related efforts can only amount to a limited profit of roughly 4% on investment. In the more realistic case, any rust pandemic-related efforts are expected to result in economic losses, indicating that major disturbances in the coffee market are anticipated.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Cost-optimal Seeding Strategy During a Botanical Pandemic in Domesticated Fields

Botanical pandemics cause enormous economic damage and food shortages around the globe. However, since botanical pandemics are here to stay in the short-medium term, domesticated field owners can strategically seed their fields to optimize each session's economic profit. In this work, we propose a novel epidemiological-economic mathematical model that describes the economic profit from a field of plants during a botanical pandemic. We describe the epidemiological dynamics using a spatio-temporal extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model with a non-linear output economic model. We provide an algorithm to obtain an optimal grid-formed seeding strategy to maximize economic profit, given field and pathogen properties. We show that the recovery and basic infection rates have a similar economic influence. Unintuitively, we show that a larger farm does not promise higher economic profit. Our results demonstrate a significant benefit of using the proposed seeding strategy and shed more light on the dynamics of the botanical pandemic.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

Improved Prediction of Settling Behaviour of Solid Particles through Machine Learning Analysis of Experimental Retention Time Data

The motion of particles through density-stratified interfaces is a common phenomenon in environmental and engineering applications. However, the mechanics of particle-stratification interactions in various combinations of particle and fluid properties are not well understood. This study presents a novel machine-learning (ML) approach to experimental data of inertial particles crossing a density-stratified interface. A simplified particle settling experiment was conducted to obtain a large number of particles and expand the parameter range, resulting in an unprecedented data set that has been shared as open data. Using ML, the study explores new correlations that collapse the data from this, and previous work Verso et al. (2019). The ``delay time,'' which is the time between the particle exiting the interfacial layer and reaching a steady-state velocity, is found to strongly depend on six dimensionless parameters formulated by ML feature selection. The data shows a correlation between the Reynolds and Froude numbers within the range of the experiments, and the best symbolic regression is based on the Froude number only. This experiment provides valuable insights into the behavior of inertial particles in stratified layers and highlights opportunities for future improvement in predicting their motion.

physics.flu-dyn↗

arXiv2023

Predicting Postoperative Nausea And Vomiting Using Machine Learning: A Model Development and Validation Study

Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a frequently observed complication in patients undergoing surgery under general anesthesia. Moreover, it is a frequent cause of distress and dissatisfaction during the early postoperative period. The tools used for predicting PONV at present have not yielded satisfactory results. Therefore, prognostic tools for the prediction of early and delayed PONV were developed in this study with the aim of achieving satisfactory predictive performance. Methods: The retrospective data of adult patients admitted to the post-anesthesia care unit after undergoing surgical procedures under general anesthesia at the Sheba Medical Center, Israel, between September 1, 2018, and September 1, 2023, were used in this study. An ensemble model of machine learning algorithms trained on the data of 54848 patients was developed. The k-fold cross-validation method was used followed by splitting the data to train and test sets that optimally preserve the sociodemographic features of the patients, such as age, sex, and smoking habits, using the Bee Colony algorithm. Findings: Among the 54848 patients, early and delayed PONV were observed in 2706 (4.93%) and 8218 (14.98%) patients, respectively. The proposed PONV prediction tools could correctly predict early and delayed PONV in 84.0% and 77.3% of cases, respectively, outperforming the second-best PONV prediction tool (Koivuranta score) by 13.4% and 12.9%, respectively. Feature importance analysis revealed that the performance of the proposed prediction tools aligned with previous clinical knowledge, indicating their utility. Interpretation: The machine learning-based tools developed in this study enabled improved PONV prediction, thereby facilitating personalized care and improved patient outcomes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Exploration-Exploitation Model of Moth-Inspired Olfactory Navigation

Navigation of male moths toward females during the mating search offers a unique perspective on the exploration-exploitation (EE) model in decision-making. This study uses the EE model to explain male moth pheromone-driven flight paths. We leverage wind tunnel measurements and 3D tracking using infrared cameras to gain insights into male moth behavior. During the experiments in the wind tunnel, we add disturbance to the airflow and analyze the effect of increased fluctuations on moth flights in the context of the proposed EE model. We separate the exploration and exploitation phases by applying a genetic algorithm to the dataset of moth 3D trajectories. First, we demonstrate that the exploration-to-exploitation rate (EER) increases with distance from the source of the female pheromone, which can be explained in the context of the EE model. Furthermore, our findings reveal a compelling relationship between EER and increased flow fluctuations near the pheromone source. Using the open-source pheromone plume simulation and our moth-inspired navigation model, we explain why male moths exhibit an enhanced EER as turbulence levels increase, emphasizing the agent's adaptation to dynamically changing environments. This research extends our understanding of optimal navigation strategies based on general biological EE models and supports the development of advanced, theoretically supported bio-inspired navigation algorithms. We provide important insights into the potential of bio-inspired navigation models for addressing complex decision-making challenges.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Symbolic Regression as Feature Engineering Method for Machine and Deep Learning Regression Tasks

In the realm of machine and deep learning regression tasks, the role of effective feature engineering (FE) is pivotal in enhancing model performance. Traditional approaches of FE often rely on domain expertise to manually design features for machine learning models. In the context of deep learning models, the FE is embedded in the neural network's architecture, making it hard for interpretation. In this study, we propose to integrate symbolic regression (SR) as an FE process before a machine learning model to improve its performance. We show, through extensive experimentation on synthetic and real-world physics-related datasets, that the incorporation of SR-derived features significantly enhances the predictive capabilities of both machine and deep learning regression models with 34-86% root mean square error (RMSE) improvement in synthetic datasets and 4-11.5% improvement in real-world datasets. In addition, as a realistic use-case, we show the proposed method improves the machine learning performance in predicting superconducting critical temperatures based on Eliashberg theory by more than 20% in terms of RMSE. These results outline the potential of SR as an FE component in data-driven models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Individual Variation Affects Outbreak Magnitude and Predictability in an Extended Multi-Pathogen SIR Model of Pigeons Vising Dairy Farms

Zoonotic disease transmission between animals and humans is a growing risk and the agricultural context acts as a likely point of transition, with individual heterogeneity acting as an important contributor. Thus, understanding the dynamics of disease spread in the wildlife-livestock interface is crucial for mitigating these risks of transmission. Specifically, the interactions between pigeons and in-door cows at dairy farms can lead to significant disease transmission and economic losses for farmers; putting livestock, adjacent human populations, and other wildlife species at risk. In this paper, we propose a novel spatio-temporal multi-pathogen model with continuous spatial movement. The model expands on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) framework and accounts for both within-species and cross-species transmission of pathogens, as well as the exploration-exploitation movement dynamics of pigeons, which play a critical role in the spread of infection agents. In addition to model formulation, we also implement it as an agent-based simulation approach and use empirical field data to investigate different biologically realistic scenarios, evaluating the effect of various parameters on the epidemic spread. Namely, in agreement with theoretical expectations, the model predicts that the heterogeneity of the pigeons' movement dynamics can drastically affect both the magnitude and stability of outbreaks. In addition, joint infection by multiple pathogens can have an interactive effect unobservable in single-pathogen SIR models, reflecting a non-intuitive inhibition of the outbreak. Our findings highlight the impact of heterogeneity in host behavior on their pathogens and allow realistic predictions of outbreak dynamics in the multi-pathogen wildlife-livestock interface with consequences to zoonotic diseases in various systems.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Predicting Lung Cancer's Metastats' Locations Using Bioclinical Model

Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The spread of the disease from its primary site to other parts of the lungs, known as metastasis, significantly impacts the course of treatment. Early identification of metastatic lesions is crucial for prompt and effective treatment, but conventional imaging techniques have limitations in detecting small metastases. In this study, we develop a bioclinical model for predicting the spatial spread of lung cancer's metastasis using a three-dimensional computed tomography (CT) scan. We used a three-layer biological model of cancer spread to predict locations with a high probability of metastasis colonization. We validated the bioclinical model on real-world data from 10 patients, showing promising 74% accuracy in the metastasis location prediction. Our study highlights the potential of the combination of biophysical and ML models to advance the way that lung cancer is diagnosed and treated, by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the spread of the disease and informing treatment decisions.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2023

Machine Learning Approaches to Predict and Detect Early-Onset of Digital Dermatitis in Dairy Cows using Sensor Data

The aim of this study was to employ machine learning algorithms based on sensor behavior data for (1) early-onset detection of digital dermatitis (DD); and (2) DD prediction in dairy cows. With the ultimate goal to set-up early warning tools for DD prediction, which would than allow a better monitoring and management of DD under commercial settings, resulting in a decrease of DD prevalence and severity, while improving animal welfare. A machine learning model that is capable of predicting and detecting digital dermatitis in cows housed under free-stall conditions based on behavior sensor data has been purposed and tested in this exploratory study. The model for DD detection on day 0 of the appearance of the clinical signs has reached an accuracy of 79%, while the model for prediction of DD 2 days prior to the appearance of the first clinical signs has reached an accuracy of 64%. The proposed machine learning models could help to develop a real-time automated tool for monitoring and diagnostic of DD in lactating dairy cows, based on behavior sensor data under conventional dairy environments. Results showed that alterations in behavioral patterns at individual levels can be used as inputs in an early warning system for herd management in order to detect variances in health of individual cows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

The Scientometrics and Reciprocality Underlying Co-Authorship Panels in Google Scholar Profiles

Online academic profiles are used by scholars to reflect a desired image to their online audience. In Google Scholar, scholars can select a subset of co-authors for presentation in a central location on their profile using a social feature called the Co-authroship panel. In this work, we examine whether scientometrics and reciprocality can explain the observed selections. To this end, we scrape and thoroughly analyze a novel set of 120,000 Google Scholar profiles, ranging across four disciplines and various academic institutions. Our results suggest that scholars tend to favor co-authors with higher scientometrics over others for inclusion in their co-authorship panels. Interestingly, as one's own scientometrics are higher, the tendency to include co-authors with high scientometrics is diminishing. Furthermore, we find that reciprocality is central to explaining scholars' selections.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2023

BovineTalk: Machine Learning for Vocalization Analysis of Dairy Cattle under Negative Affective States

There is a critical need to develop and validate non-invasive animal-based indicators of affective states in livestock species, in order to integrate them into on-farm assessment protocols, potentially via the use of precision livestock farming (PLF) tools. One such promising approach is the use of vocal indicators. The acoustic structure of vocalizations and their functions were extensively studied in important livestock species, such as pigs, horses, poultry and goats, yet cattle remain understudied in this context to date. Cows were shown to produce two types vocalizations: low-frequency calls (LF), produced with the mouth closed, or partially closed, for close distance contacts and open mouth emitted high-frequency calls (HF), produced for long distance communication, with the latter considered to be largely associated with negative affective states. Moreover, cattle vocalizations were shown to contain information on individuality across a wide range of contexts, both negative and positive. Nowadays, dairy cows are facing a series of negative challenges and stressors in a typical production cycle, making vocalizations during negative affective states of special interest for research. One contribution of this study is providing the largest to date pre-processed (clean from noises) dataset of lactating adult multiparous dairy cows during negative affective states induced by visual isolation challenges. Here we present two computational frameworks - deep learning based and explainable machine learning based, to classify high and low-frequency cattle calls, and individual cow voice recognition. Our models in these two frameworks reached 87.2% and 89.4% accuracy for LF and HF classification, with 68.9% and 72.5% accuracy rates for the cow individual identification, respectively.

cs.SD↗

arXiv2023

Digitally-Enhanced Dog Behavioral Testing: Getting Help from the Machine

The assessment of behavioral traits in dogs is a well-studied challenge due to its many practical applications such as selection for breeding, prediction of working aptitude, chances of being adopted, etc. Most methods for assessing behavioral traits are questionnaire or observation-based, which require a significant amount of time, effort and expertise. In addition, these methods are also susceptible to subjectivity and bias, making them less reliable. In this study, we proposed an automated computational approach that may provide a more objective, robust and resource-efficient alternative to current solutions. Using part of a Stranger Test protocol, we tested n=53 dogs for their response to the presence and benign actions of a stranger. Dog coping styles were scored by three experts. Moreover, data were collected from their handlers using the Canine Behavioral Assessment and Research Questionnaire (C-BARQ). An unsupervised clustering of the dogs' trajectories revealed two main clusters showing a significant difference in the stranger-directed fear C-BARQ factor, as well as a good separation between (sufficiently) relaxed dogs and dogs with excessive behaviors towards strangers based on expert scoring. Based on the clustering, we obtained a machine learning classifier for expert scoring of coping styles towards strangers, which reached an accuracy of 78%. We also obtained a regression model predicting C-BARQ factor scores with varying performance, the best being Owner-Directed Aggression (with a mean average error of 0.108) and Excitability (with a mean square error of 0.032). This case study demonstrates a novel paradigm of digitally enhanced canine behavioral testing.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2023

Temporal Graphs Anomaly Emergence Detection: Benchmarking For Social Media Interactions

Temporal graphs have become an essential tool for analyzing complex dynamic systems with multiple agents. Detecting anomalies in temporal graphs is crucial for various applications, including identifying emerging trends, monitoring network security, understanding social dynamics, tracking disease outbreaks, and understanding financial dynamics. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study that compares 12 data-driven methods for anomaly detection in temporal graphs. We conduct experiments on two temporal graphs extracted from Twitter and Facebook, aiming to identify anomalies in group interactions. Surprisingly, our study reveals an unclear pattern regarding the best method for such tasks, highlighting the complexity and challenges involved in anomaly emergence detection in large and dynamic systems. The results underscore the need for further research and innovative approaches to effectively detect emerging anomalies in dynamic systems represented as temporal graphs.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Can We Mathematically Spot Possible Manipulation of Results in Research Manuscripts Using Benford's Law?

The reproducibility of academic research has long been a persistent issue, contradicting one of the fundamental principles of science. What is even more concerning is the increasing number of false claims found in academic manuscripts recently, casting doubt on the validity of reported results. In this paper, we utilize an adaptive version of Benford's law, a statistical phenomenon that describes the distribution of leading digits in naturally occurring datasets, to identify potential manipulation of results in research manuscripts, solely using the aggregated data presented in those manuscripts. Our methodology applies the principles of Benford's law to commonly employed analyses in academic manuscripts, thus, reducing the need for the raw data itself. To validate our approach, we employed 100 open-source datasets and successfully predicted 79% of them accurately using our rules. Additionally, we analyzed 100 manuscripts published in the last two years across ten prominent economic journals, with ten manuscripts randomly sampled from each journal. Our analysis predicted a 3% occurrence of result manipulation with a 96% confidence level. Our findings uncover disturbing inconsistencies in recent studies and offer a semi-automatic method for their detection.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2023

A Computational Model For Individual Scholars' Writing Style Dynamics

A manuscript's writing style is central in determining its readership, influence, and impact. Past research has shown that, in many cases, scholars present a unique writing style that is manifested in their manuscripts. In this work, we report a comprehensive investigation into how scholars' writing styles evolve throughout their careers focusing on their academic relations with their advisors and peers. Our results show that scholars' writing styles tend to stabilize early on in their careers -- roughly their 13th publication. Around the same time, scholars' departures from their advisors' writing styles seem to converge as well. Last, collaborations involving fewer scholars, scholars from the same gender, or from the same field of study seem to bring about greater change in their co-authors' writing styles with younger scholars being especially influenceable.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2023

Cancer-inspired Genomics Mapper Model for the Generation of Synthetic DNA Sequences with Desired Genomics Signatures

Genome data are crucial in modern medicine, offering significant potential for diagnosis and treatment. Thanks to technological advancements, many millions of healthy and diseased genomes have already been sequenced; however, obtaining the most suitable data for a specific study, and specifically for validation studies, remains challenging with respect to scale and access. Therefore, in silico genomics sequence generators have been proposed as a possible solution. However, the current generators produce inferior data using mostly shallow (stochastic) connections, detected with limited computational complexity in the training data. This means they do not take the appropriate biological relations and constraints, that originally caused the observed connections, into consideration. To address this issue, we propose cancer-inspired genomics mapper model (CGMM), that combines genetic algorithm (GA) and deep learning (DL) methods to tackle this challenge. CGMM mimics processes that generate genetic variations and mutations to transform readily available control genomes into genomes with the desired phenotypes. We demonstrate that CGMM can generate synthetic genomes of selected phenotypes such as ancestry and cancer that are indistinguishable from real genomes of such phenotypes, based on unsupervised clustering. Our results show that CGMM outperforms four current state-of-the-art genomics generators on two different tasks, suggesting that CGMM will be suitable for a wide range of purposes in genomic medicine, especially for much-needed validation studies.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2023

A computational framework for physics-informed symbolic regression with straightforward integration of domain knowledge

Discovering a meaningful symbolic expression that explains experimental data is a fundamental challenge in many scientific fields. We present a novel, open-source computational framework called Scientist-Machine Equation Detector (SciMED), which integrates scientific discipline wisdom in a scientist-in-the-loop approach, with state-of-the-art symbolic regression (SR) methods. SciMED combines a wrapper selection method, that is based on a genetic algorithm, with automatic machine learning and two levels of SR methods. We test SciMED on five configurations of a settling sphere, with and without aerodynamic non-linear drag force, and with excessive noise in the measurements. We show that SciMED is sufficiently robust to discover the correct physically meaningful symbolic expressions from the data, and demonstrate how the integration of domain knowledge enhances its performance. Our results indicate better performance on these tasks than the state-of-the-art SR software packages , even in cases where no knowledge is integrated. Moreover, we demonstrate how SciMED can alert the user about possible missing features, unlike the majority of current SR systems.

cs.LG↗