arXiv subjects

Teemu Pennanen

Publications and source records attributed to Teemu Pennanen.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Optimal Pricing and Hedging of SOFR Derivatives

Thousands of SOFR derivatives are available in exchanges and OTC, but the market remains illiquid and incomplete. Such a market is beyond the scope of classic risk-neutral approaches that imply linear pricing rules and, at best, approximate hedging strategies whose hedging error may be difficult to quantify. This paper develops an indifference pricing model which is consistent with observed derivative quotes, the agent's financial position and views about the uncertain future as well as risk preferences as described by a convex risk measure. In addition to prices and hedging strategies, the model gives an explicit description of the hedging error and the associated risk. The approach is illustrated numerically using hundreds of CME-listed derivatives to price and hedge unreplicable OTC SOFR derivatives. The indifference prices are computed in less than a minute on a regular PC. We find that the optimal hedging portfolios tend to be sparse but still provide good approximations of the derivative payouts.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2026

Statistical modeling of SOFR term structure

SOFR derivatives market remains illiquid and incomplete so it is not amenable to classical risk-neutral term structure models which are based on the assumption of perfect liquidity and completeness. This paper develops a statistical SOFR term structure model that is well-suited for risk management and derivatives pricing within the incomplete markets paradigm. The model incorporates relevant macroeconomic factors that drive central bank policy rates which, in turn, cause jumps often observed in the SOFR rates. The model is easy to calibrate to historical data, current market quotes, and the user's views concerning the future development of the relevant macroeconomic factors. The model is well suited for large-scale simulations often required in risk management, portfolio optimization and indifference pricing of interest rate derivatives.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2025

Optimal Operation and Valuation of Electricity Storages in Intraday Markets

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storages in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user's financial position, market views and risk preferences. The underlying optimization problem is solved with the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming algorithm which is applicable to various specifications of storages, and it allows for e.g. hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. We illustrate the approach in intraday trading where the agent charges or discharges a battery over a finite number of delivery periods, and the electricity prices are subject to bid-ask spreads and significant uncertainty. Optimal strategies are found in a matter of minutes on a regular PC. We find that the corresponding trading strategies and battery valuations vary consistently with respect to the agent's risk preferences as well as the physical characteristics of the battery.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Dynamic programming and dimensionality in convex stochastic optimization and control

This paper studies stochastic optimization problems and associated Bellman equations in formats that allow for reduced dimensionality of the cost-to-go functions. In particular, we study stochastic control problems in the ``decision-hazard-decision'' form where at each stage, the system state is controlled both by predictable as well as adapted controls. Such an information structure may result in a lower dimensional system state than what is required in more traditional ``decision-hazard'' or ``hazard-decision'' formulations. The dimension is critical for the complexity of numerical dynamic programming algorithms and, in particular, for cutting plane schemes such as the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. Our main result characterizes optimal solutions and optimum values in terms of solutions to generalized Bellman equations. Existence of solutions to the Bellman equations is established under general conditions that do not require compactness. We allow for general randomness but show that, in the Markovian case, the dimensionality of the Bellman equations reduces with respect to randomness just like in more traditional control formulations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Optimal Operation and Valuation of Electricity Storages

This paper applies computational techniques of convex stochastic optimization to optimal operation and valuation of electricity storages in the face of uncertain electricity prices. Our approach is applicable to various specifications of storages, and it allows for e.g.\ hard constraints on storage capacity and charging speed. Our valuations are based on the indifference pricing principle, which builds on optimal trading strategies and calibrates to the user's initial position, market views and risk preferences. We illustrate the effects of storage capacity and charging speed by numerically computing the valuations using stochastic dual dynamic programming.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic modelling of football matches

This paper develops a general framework for stochastic modeling of goals and other events in football (soccer) matches. The events are modelled as Cox processes (doubly stochastic Poisson processes) where the event intensities may depend on all the modeled events as well as external factors. The model has a strictly concave log-likelihood function which facilitates its fitting to observed data. Besides event times, the model describes the random lengths of stoppage times which can have a strong influence on the final score of a match. The model is illustrated on eight years of data from Campeonato Brasileiro de Futebol Série A. We find that dynamic regressors significantly improve the in-game predictive power of the model. In particular, a) when a team receives a red card, its goal intensity decreases more than 30%; b) the goal rate of a team increases by 10% if it is losing by one goal and by 20% if its losing by two goals; and c) when the goal difference at the end of the second half is less than or equal to one, the stoppage time is on average more than one minute longer than in matches with a difference of two goals.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Dual solutions in convex stochastic optimization

This paper studies duality and optimality conditions for general convex stochastic optimization problems. The main result gives sufficient conditions for the absence of a duality gap and the existence of dual solutions in a locally convex space of random variables. It implies, in particular, the necessity of scenario-wise optimality conditions that are behind many fundamental results in operations research, stochastic optimal control and financial mathematics. Our analysis builds on the theory of Fréchet spaces of random variables whose topological dual can be identified with the direct sum of another space of random variables and a space of singular functionals. The results are illustrated by deriving sufficient and necessary optimality conditions for several more specific problem classes. We obtain significant extensions to earlier models e.g.\ on stochastic optimal control, portfolio optimization and mathematical programming.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Duality in convex stochastic optimization

This paper studies duality and optimality conditions in general convex stochastic optimization problems introduced by Rockafellar and Wets in 1976. We derive an explicit dual problem in terms of two dual variables, one of which is the shadow price of information while the other one gives the marginal cost of a perturbation much like in classical Lagrangian duality. Existence of primal solutions and the absence of duality gap are obtained without compactness or boundedness assumptions. In the context of financial mathematics, the relaxed assumptions are satisfied under the well-known no-arbitrage condition and the reasonable asymptotic elasticity condition of the utility function. We extend classical portfolio optimization duality theory to problems of optimal semi-static hedging. Besides financial mathematics, we obtain several new frameworks in stochastic programming and stochastic optimal control.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Dynamic programming in convex stochastic optimization

This paper studies the dynamic programming principle for general convex stochastic optimization problems introduced by Rockafellar and Wets in [30]. We extend the applicability of the theory by relaxing compactness and boundedness assumptions. In the context of financial mathematics, the relaxed assumption are satisfied under the well-known no-arbitrage condition and the reasonable asymptotic elasticity condition of the utility function. Besides financial mathematics, we obtain several new results in linear and nonlinear stochastic programming and stochastic optimal control.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

Efficient allocations in double auction markets

This paper proposes a simple descriptive model of discrete-time double auction markets for divisible assets. As in the classical models of exchange economies, we consider a finite set of agents described by their initial endowments and preferences. Instead of the classical Walrasian-type market models, however, we assume that all trades take place in a centralized double auction where the agents communicate through sealed limit orders for buying and selling. We find that, under nonstrategic bidding, the double auction clears with zero trades precisely when the agents' current holdings are on the Pareto frontier. More interestingly, the double auctions implement Adam Smith's "invisible hand" in the sense that, when starting from disequilibrium, repeated double auctions lead to a sequence of allocations that converges to individually rational Pareto allocations.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Dual spaces of cadlag processes

This article characterizes topological duals of spaces of cadlag processes. We obtain extensions of functional analytic results of Dellacherie and Meyer that underlie many fundamental results in stochastic analysis. In particular, we obtain a characterization of the dual of cadlag processes of class $(D)$ in terms of optional measures of essentially bounded variation. When specialized to regular processes, we find extensions of the main result of Bismut \cite{bis78} on projections of continuous processes. The dual characterizations yield existence results and optimality conditions for many fundamental problems from optimal stopping to singular stochastic control well beyond classical formulations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Topological duals of Banach function spaces

This paper studies topological duals of Banach function spaces (BFS). We assume a finite measure but our arguments extend to general locally convex function spaces whose topology is generated by seminorms that satisfy the usual BFS axioms. The dual is identified with the direct sum of another space of random variables (Köthe dual), a space of purely finitely additive measures and the annihilator of $L^\infty$. In the special case of rearrangement invariant spaces, the second component in the dual vanishes and we obtain various classical as well as new duality results e.g. on Lebesgue, Orlicz, Lorentz-Orlicz spaces and spaces of finite moments. Beyond rearrangement invariant spaces, we find the topological duals of Musielak-Orlicz spaces and those associated with general convex risk measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Optimal semi-static hedging in illiquid markets

We study indifference pricing of exotic derivatives by using hedging strategies that take static positions in quoted derivatives but trade the underlying and cash dynamically over time. We use real quotes that come with bid-ask spreads and finite quantities. Galerkin method and integration quadratures are used to approximate the hedging problem by a finite dimensional convex optimization problem which is solved by an interior point method. The techniques are extended also to situations where the underlying is subject to bid-ask spreads. As an illustration, we compute indifference prices of path-dependent options written on S&P500 index. Semi-static hedging improves considerably on the purely static options strategy as well as dynamic trading without options. The indifference prices make good economic sense even in the presence of arbitrage opportunities that are found when the underlying is assumed perfectly liquid. When transaction costs are introduced, the arbitrage opportunities vanish but the indifference prices remain almost unchanged.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2020

Stochastic modeling of assets and liabilities with mortality risk

This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income instruments including short- and long-maturity fixed-rate bonds as well as index-linked and corporate bonds. On the liability side, the risks are driven by future mortality developments as well as price and wage inflation. All the risk factors are modeled as a multivariate stochastic process that captures the dynamics and the dependencies across different risk factors. The model is easy to interpret and to calibrate to both historical data and to forecasts or expert views concerning the future. The simple structure of the model allows for efficient computations. The construction of a million scenarios takes only a few minutes on a personal computer. The approach is illustrated with an asset-liability analysis of a defined benefit pension fund.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2019

Optimal stopping without Snell envelopes

This paper proves the existence of optimal stopping times via elementary functional analytic arguments. The problem is first relaxed into a convex optimization problem over a closed convex subset of the unit ball of the dual of a Banach space. The existence of optimal solutions then follows from the Banach--Alaoglu compactness theorem and the Krein--Millman theorem on extreme points of convex sets. This approach seems to give the most general existence results known to date. Applying convex duality to the relaxed problem gives a dual problem and optimality conditions in terms of martingales that dominate the reward process.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Pricing index options by static hedging under finite liquidity

We develop a model for indifference pricing in derivatives markets where price quotes have bid-ask spreads and finite quantities. The model quantifies the dependence of the prices and hedging portfolios on an investor's beliefs, risk preferences and financial position as well as on the price quotes. Computational techniques of convex optimisation allow for fast computation of the hedging portfolios and prices as well as sensitivities with respect to various model parameters. We illustrate the techniques by pricing and hedging of exotic derivatives on S&P index using call and put options, forward contracts and cash as the hedging instruments. The optimized static hedges provide good approximations of the options payouts and the spreads between indifference selling and buying prices are quite narrow as compared with the spread between super- and subhedging prices.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2017

Convex duality in nonlinear optimal transport

This article studies problems of optimal transport, by embedding them in a general functional analytic framework of convex optimization. This provides a unified treatment of a large class of related problems in probability theory and allows for generalizations of the classical problem formulations. General results on convex duality yield dual problems and optimality conditions for these problems. When the objective takes the form of a convex integral functional, we obtain more explicit optimality conditions and establish the existence of solutions for a relaxed formulation of the problem. This covers, in particular, the mass transportation problem and its nonlinear generalizations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Convex integral functionals of regular processes

This article gives dual representations for convex integral functionals on the linear space of regular processes. This space turns out to be a Banach space containing many more familiar classes of stochastic processes and its dual can be identified with the space of optional Radon measures with essentially bounded variation. Combined with classical Banach space techniques, our results allow for a systematic treatment of stochastic optimization problems over BV processes and, in particular, yields a maximum principle for a general class of singular stochastic control problems.

math.PR↗