arXiv subjects

Thaddeus D. Komacek

Publications and source records attributed to Thaddeus D. Komacek.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Patchy nightside clouds on ultra-hot Jupiters: General Circulation Model simulations with radiatively active cloud tracers

The atmospheres of ultra-hot Jupiters have been characterized in detail through recent phase curve and low- and high-resolution emission and transmission spectroscopic observations. Previous numerical studies have analyzed the effect of the localized recombination of hydrogen on the atmospheric dynamics and heat transport of ultra-hot Jupiters, finding that hydrogen dissociation and recombination lead to a reduction in the day-to-night contrasts of ultra-hot Jupiters relative to previous expectations. In this work, we add to previous efforts by also considering the localized condensation of clouds in the atmospheres of ultra-hot Jupiters, their resulting transport by the atmospheric circulation, and the radiative feedback of clouds on the atmospheric dynamics. To do so, we include radiatively active cloud tracers into the existing MITgcm framework for simulating the atmospheric dynamics of ultra-hot Jupiters. We take cloud condensate properties appropriate for the high-temperature condensate corundum from CARMA cloud microphysics models. We conduct a suite of GCM simulations with varying cloud microphysical and radiative properties, and we find that partial cloud coverage is a ubiquitous outcome of our simulations. This patchy cloud distribution is inherently set by atmospheric dynamics in addition to equilibrium cloud condensation, and causes a cloud greenhouse effect that warms the atmosphere below the cloud deck. Nightside clouds are further sequestered at depth due to a dynamically induced high-altitude thermal inversion. We post-process our GCMs with the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code gCMCRT and find that the patchy clouds on ultra-hot Jupiters do not significantly impact transmission spectra but can affect their phase-dependent emission spectra.

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arXiv2022

Strong H$_2$O and CO emission features in the spectrum of KELT-20b driven by stellar UV irradiation

Know thy star, know thy planetary atmosphere. Every exoplanet with atmospheric measurements orbits around a star, and the stellar environment directly affects the planetary atmosphere. Here we present the emission spectrum of ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-20b which provides an observational link between host star properties and planet atmospheric thermal structure. It is currently the only planet with thermal emission measurements in the $T_{eq}\sim$2200K range that orbits around an early A-type star. By comparing it with other similar ultra-hot Jupiters around FGK stars, we can better understand how different host star types influence planetary atmospheres. The emission spectrum covers 0.6 to 4.5 $μm$ with data from TESS, HST WFC3/G141, and Spitzer 4.5 $μm$ channel. KELT-20b has a 1.4 $μm$ water feature strength metric of S$_{H_2O}$ = -0.097$\pm$0.02 and a blackbody brightness temperature difference of 528K between WFC3/G141 (T$_b$=2402$\pm$14K) and Spitzer 4.5 $μm$ channel (T$_b$=2930$\pm59$K). These very large H$_2$O and CO emission features combined with the A-type host star make KELT-20b a unique planet among other similar hot Jupiters. The abundant FUV, NUV, and optical radiation from its host star (T$_{eff}=8720\pm250$K) is expected to be the key that drives its strong thermal inversion and prominent emission features based on previous PHOENIX models calculations.

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arXiv2021

No umbrella needed: Confronting the hypothesis of iron rain on WASP-76b with post-processed general circulation models

High-resolution spectra are unique indicators of three-dimensional processes in exoplanetary atmospheres. For instance, in 2020, Ehrenreich et al. reported transmission spectra from the ESPRESSO spectrograph yielding an anomalously large Doppler blueshift from the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b. Interpretations of these observations invoke toy model depictions of gas-phase iron condensation in lower-temperature regions of the planet's atmosphere. In this work, we forward model the atmosphere of WASP-76b with double-gray general circulation models (GCMs) and ray-striking radiative transfer to diagnose the planet's high-resolution transmission spectrum. We confirm that a physical mechanism driving strong east-west asymmetries across the terminator must exist to reproduce large Doppler blueshifts in WASP-76b's transmission spectrum. We identify low atmospheric drag and a deep radiative-convective boundary as necessary components of our GCM to produce this asymmetry (the latter is consistent with existing Spitzer phase curves). However, we cannot reproduce either the magnitude or the time-dependence of the WASP-76b Doppler signature with gas-phase iron condensation alone. Instead, we find that high-altitude, optically thick clouds composed of $\rm Al_2O_3$, Fe, or $\rm Mg_2SiO_4$ provide reasonable fits to the Ehrenreich et al. observations -- with marginal contributions from condensation. This fit is further improved by allowing a small orbital eccentricity ($e \approx 0.017$), consistent with prior WASP-76b orbital constraints. We additionally validate our forward-modeled spectra by reproducing lines of nearly all species detected in WASP-76b by Tabernero et al. 2021. Our procedure's success in diagnosing phase-resolved Doppler shifts demonstrates the benefits of physical, self-consistent, three-dimensional simulations in modeling high-resolution spectra of exoplanet atmospheres.

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arXiv2021

TOI-2109b: An Ultrahot Gas Giant on a 16 hr Orbit

We report the discovery of an ultrahot Jupiter with an extremely short orbital period of $0.67247414\,\pm\,0.00000028$ days ($\sim$16 hr). The $1.347 \pm 0.047$ $R_{\rm Jup}$ planet, initially identified by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission, orbits TOI-2109 (TIC 392476080): a $T_{\rm eff} \sim 6500$ K F-type star with a mass of $1.447 \pm 0.077$ $M_{\rm Sun}$, a radius of $1.698 \pm 0.060$ $R_{\rm Sun}$, and a rotational velocity of $v\sin i_* = 81.9 \pm 1.7$ km s$^{-1}$. The planetary nature of TOI-2109b was confirmed through radial velocity measurements, which yielded a planet mass of $5.02 \pm 0.75$ $M_{\rm Jup}$. Analysis of the Doppler shadow in spectroscopic transit observations indicates a well-aligned system, with a sky-projected obliquity of $λ= 1\overset{\circ}{.}7 \pm 1\overset{\circ}{.}7$. From the TESS full-orbit light curve, we measured a secondary eclipse depth of $731 \pm 46$ ppm, as well as phase-curve variations from the planet's longitudinal brightness modulation and ellipsoidal distortion of the host star. Combining the TESS-band occultation measurement with a $K_s$-band secondary eclipse depth ($2012 \pm 80$ ppm) derived from ground-based observations, we find that the dayside emission of TOI-2109b is consistent with a brightness temperature of $3631 \pm 69$ K, making it the second hottest exoplanet hitherto discovered. By virtue of its extreme irradiation and strong planet-star gravitational interaction, TOI-2109b is an exceptionally promising target for intensive follow-up studies using current and near-future telescope facilities to probe for orbital decay, detect tidally driven atmospheric escape, and assess the impacts of H$_2$ dissociation and recombination on the global heat transport.

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arXiv2021

TOI-1431b/MASCARA-5b: A Highly Irradiated Ultra-Hot Jupiter Orbiting One of the Hottest & Brightest Known Exoplanet Host Stars

We present the discovery of a highly irradiated and moderately inflated ultra-hot Jupiter, TOI-1431b/MASCARA-5b (HD 201033b), first detected by NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite mission (TESS) and the Multi-site All-Sky CAmeRA (MASCARA). The signal was established to be of planetary origin through radial velocity measurements obtained using SONG, SOPHIE, FIES, NRES, and EXPRES, which show a reflex motion of $K=294.1\pm1.1$ m s$^{-1}$. A joint analysis of the TESS and ground-based photometry and radial velocity measurements reveals that TOI-1431b has a mass of $M_{p}=3.12\pm0.18$ $\rm{M_J}$ ($990\pm60$ M$_{\oplus}$), an inflated radius of $R_{p}=1.49\pm0.05$ $\rm{R_J}$ ($16.7\pm0.6$ R$_{\oplus}$), and an orbital period of $P=2.650237\pm0.000003$ d. Analysis of the spectral energy distribution of the host star reveals that the planet orbits a bright ($\mathrm{V}=8.049$ mag) and young ($0.29^{+0.32}_{-0.19}$ Gyr) Am type star with $T_{\rm eff}=7690^{+400}_{-250}$ $\rm{K}$, resulting in a highly irradiated planet with an incident flux of $\langle F \rangle=7.24^{+0.68}_{-0.64}\times$10$^9$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$ ($5300^{+500}_{-470}\mathrm{S_{\oplus}}$) and an equilibrium temperature of $T_{eq}=2370\pm70$ K. TESS photometry also reveals a secondary eclipse with a depth of $127^{+4}_{-5}$ppm as well as the full phase curve of the planet's thermal emission in the red-optical. This has allowed us to measure the dayside and nightside temperature of its atmosphere as $T_\mathrm{day}=3004\pm64$ K and $T_\mathrm{night}=2583\pm63$ K, the second hottest measured nightside temperature. The planet's low day/night temperature contrast ($\sim$420 K) suggests very efficient heat transport between the dayside and nightside hemispheres.

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arXiv2021

Leveraging Models to Constrain the Climates of Rocky Exoplanets

In recent years, numerical models that were developed for Earth have been adapted to study exoplanetary climates to understand how the broad range of possible exoplanetary properties affects their climate state. The recent discovery and upcoming characterization of nearby rocky exoplanets opens an avenue toward understanding the processes that shape planetary climates and lead to the persistent habitability of Earth. In this review, we summarize recent advances in understanding the climate of rocky exoplanets, including their atmospheric structure, chemistry, evolution, and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We describe current and upcoming astronomical observations that will constrain the climate of rocky exoplanets and describe how modeling tools will both inform and interpret future observations.

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arXiv2021

Spitzer phase curve observations and circulation models of the inflated ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b

The large radii of many hot Jupiters can only be matched by models that have hot interior adiabats, and recent theoretical work has shown that the interior evolution of hot Jupiters has a significant impact on their atmospheric structure. Due to its inflated radius, low gravity, and ultra-hot equilibrium temperature, WASP-76b is an ideal case study for the impact of internal evolution on observable properties. Hot interiors should most strongly affect the non-irradiated side of the planet, and thus full phase curve observations are critical to ascertain the effect of the interior on the atmospheres of hot Jupiters. In this work, we present the first Spitzer phase curve observations of WASP-76b. We find that WASP-76b has an ultra-hot day side and relatively cold nightside with brightness temperatures of $2471 \pm 27~\mathrm{K}$/$1518 \pm 61~\mathrm{K}$ at $3.6~\micron$ and $2699 \pm 32~\mathrm{K}$/$1259 \pm 44~\mathrm{K}$ at $4.5~\micron$, respectively. These results provide evidence for a dayside thermal inversion. Both channels exhibit small phase offsets of $0.68 \pm 0.48^{\circ}$ at $3.6~\micron$ and $0.67 \pm 0.2^{\circ}$ at $4.5~μ\mathrm{m}$. We compare our observations to a suite of general circulation models that consider two end-members of interior temperature along with a broad range of frictional drag strengths. Strong frictional drag is necessary to match the small phase offsets and cold nightside temperatures observed. From our suite of cloud-free GCMs, we find that only cases with a cold interior can reproduce the cold nightsides and large phase curve amplitude at $4.5~\micron$, hinting that the hot interior adiabat of WASP-76b does not significantly impact its atmospheric dynamics or that clouds blanket its nightside.

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arXiv2021

Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters: Dayside-Nightside Temperature Differences. II. Comparison with Observations

The full-phase infrared light curves of low-eccentricity hot Jupiters show a trend of increasing fractional dayside-nightside brightness temperature difference with increasing incident stellar flux, both averaged across the infrared and in each individual wavelength band. The analytic theory of Komacek & Showman (2016) shows that this trend is due to the decreasing ability with increasing incident stellar flux of waves to propagate from day to night and erase temperature differences. Here, we compare the predictions of this theory to observations, showing that it explains well the shape of the trend of increasing dayside-nightside temperature difference with increasing equilibrium temperature. Applied to individual planets, the theory matches well with observations at high equilibrium temperatures but, for a fixed photosphere pressure of $100 \ \mathrm{mbar}$, systematically under-predicts the dayside-nightside brightness temperature differences at equilibrium temperatures less than $2000 \ \mathrm{K}$. We interpret this as due to as the effects of a process that moves the infrared photospheres of these cooler hot Jupiters to lower pressures. We also utilize general circulation modeling with double-grey radiative transfer to explore how the circulation changes with equilibrium temperature and drag strengths. As expected from our theory, the dayside-nightside temperature differences from our numerical simulations increase with increasing incident stellar flux and drag strengths. We calculate model phase curves using our general circulation models, from which we compare the broadband infrared offset from the substellar point and dayside-nightside brightness temperature differences against observations, finding that strong drag or additional effects (e.g. clouds and/or supersolar metallicities) are necessary to explain many observed phase curves.

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arXiv2021

Vertical Tracer Mixing in Hot Jupiter Atmospheres

Aerosols appear to be ubiquitous in close-in gas giant atmospheres, and disequilibrium chemistry likely impacts the emergent spectra of these planets. Lofted aerosols and disequilibrium chemistry are caused by vigorous vertical transport in these heavily irradiated atmospheres. Here we numerically and analytically investigate how vertical transport should change over the parameter space of spin-synchronized gas giants. In order to understand how tracer transport depends on planetary parameters, we develop an analytic theory to predict vertical velocities and mixing rates ($K_\mathrm{zz}$) and compare the results to our numerical experiments. We find that both our theory and numerical simulations predict that, if the vertical mixing rate is described by an eddy diffusivity, then this eddy diffusivity $K_\mathrm{zz}$ should increase with increasing equilibrium temperature, decreasing frictional drag strength, and increasing chemical loss timescales. We find that the transition in our numerical simulations between circulation dominated by a superrotating jet and that with solely day-to-night flow causes a marked change in the vertical velocity structure and tracer distribution. The mixing ratio of passive tracers is greatest for intermediate drag strengths that corresponds to this transition between a superrotating jet with columnar vertical velocity structure and day-to-night flow with upwelling on the dayside and downwelling on the nightside. Lastly, we present analytic solutions for $K_\mathrm{zz}$ as a function of planetary effective temperature, chemical loss timescales, and other parameters, for use as input to one-dimensional chemistry models of spin-synchronized gas giant atmospheres.

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arXiv2021

Hot Jupiters: Origins, Structure, Atmospheres

We provide a brief review of many aspects of the planetary physics of hot Jupiters. Our aim is to cover most of the major areas of current study while providing the reader with additional references for more detailed follow-up. We first discuss giant planet formation and subsequent orbital evolution via disk-driven torques or dynamical interactions. More than one formation pathway is needed to understand the population. Next, we examine our current understanding of the evolutionary history and current interior structure of the planets, where we focus on bulk composition as well as viable models to explain the inflated radii of the population. Finally we discuss aspects of their atmospheres in the context of observations and 1D and 3D models, including atmospheric structure and escape, spectroscopic signatures, and complex atmospheric circulation. The major opacity sources in these atmospheres, including alkali metals, water vapor, and others, are discussed. We discuss physics that control the 3D atmospheric circulation and day-to-night temperature structures. We conclude by suggesting important future work for still-open questions.

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arXiv2021

Re-inflation of warm and hot Jupiters

Understanding the anomalous radii of many transiting hot gas giant planets is a fundamental problem of planetary science. Recent detections of re-inflated warm Jupiters orbiting post-main-sequence stars and the re-inflation of hot Jupiters while their host stars evolve on the main-sequence may help constrain models for the anomalous radii of hot Jupiters. In this work, we present evolution models studying the re-inflation of gas giants to determine how varying the depth and intensity of deposited heating affects both main-sequence re-inflation of hot Jupiters and post-main-sequence re-inflation of warm Jupiters. We find that deeper heating is required to re-inflate hot Jupiters than is needed to suppress their cooling, and that the timescale of re-inflation decreases with increasing heating rate and depth. We find a strong degeneracy between heating rate and depth, with either strong shallow heating or weak deep heating providing an explanation for main-sequence re-inflation of hot Jupiters. This degeneracy between heating rate and depth can be broken in the case of post-main-sequence re-inflation of warm Jupiters, as the inflation must be rapid to occur within post-main-sequence evolution timescales. We also show that the dependence of heating rate on incident stellar flux inferred from the sample of hot Jupiters can explain re-inflation of both warm and hot Jupiters. TESS will obtain a large sample of warm Jupiters orbiting post-main-sequence stars, which will help to constrain the mechanism(s) causing the anomalous radii of gas giant planets.

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arXiv2021

Probing the capability of future direct imaging missions to spectrally constrain the frequency of Earth-like planets

A critical question in astrobiology is whether exoEarth candidates (EECs) are Earth-like, in that they originate life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres similarly to Earth. We propose answering this question statistically by searching for O2 and O3 on EECs with missions such as HabEx or LUVOIR. We explore the ability of these missions to constrain the fraction, fE, of EECs that are Earth-like in the event of a null detection of O2 or O3 on all observed EECs. We use the Planetary Spectrum Generator to simulate observations of EECs with O2 and O3 levels based on Earth's history. We consider four instrument designs: LUVOIR-A (15m), LUVOIR-B (8m), HabEx with a starshade (4m, "HabEx/SS"), HabEx without a starshade (4m, "HabEx/no-SS"); as well as three estimates of the occurrence rate of EECs (eta_earth): 24%, 5%, and 0.5%. In the case of a null-detection, we find that for eta_earth = 24%, LUVOIR-A, LUVOIR-B, and HabEx/SS would constrain fE to <= 0.094, <= 0.18, and <= 0.56, respectively. This also indicates that if fE is greater than these upper limits, we are likely to detect O3 on at least 1 EEC. Conversely, we find that HabEx/no-SS cannot constrain fE, due to the lack of an coronagraph ultraviolet channel. For eta_earth = 5%, only LUVOIR-A and LUVOIR-B would be able to constrain fE, to <= 0.45 and <= 0.85, respectively. For eta_earth = 0.5%, none of the missions would allow us to constrain fE, due to the low number of detectable EECs. We conclude that the ability to constrain fE is more robust to uncertainties in eta_earth for missions with larger aperture mirrors. However all missions are susceptible to an inconclusive null detection if eta_earth is sufficiently low.

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arXiv2020

Non-detection of O$_2$/O$_3$ informs frequency of Earth-like planets with LUVOIR but not HabEx

A critical question in the search for extraterrestrial life is whether exoEarths are Earth-like, in that they host life that progressively oxygenates their atmospheres roughly following Earth's oxygenation history. This question could be answered statistically by searching for O$_2$ and O$_3$ on exoEarths detected by HabEx or LUVOIR. The point of this paper is to compare the ability of HabEx and LUVOIR to prevent a false negative answer to this question, in which we do not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any planet even if all exoEarths are Earth-like. Our approach is to assign O$_2$ and O$_3$ values drawn from Earth's history to a distribution of detectable exoEarths and determine whether O$_2$ and O$_3$ would be detectable using the Planetary Spectrum Generator. We find that if exoEarths tend to be Earth-like, we expect to detect O$_3$ with a LUVOIR-sized instrument. We also find that LUVOIR is unlikely to have a false negative scenario in the context of searching for Earth-like life on its targeted exoEarths. Because of that, if LUVOIR does not detect O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any exoEarths, we will be able to constrain the maximum number of exoEarths that could be Earth-like. In contrast, we find that even if all exoEarths are Earth-like, HabEx has up to a 22% chance of not detecting O$_2$ or O$_3$ on any of them. This is because HabEx will detect less planets and cannot reliably detect O$_2$ and O$_3$ at all potential Proterozoic levels. This is a strong argument for building a larger telescope such as LUVOIR if we want to determine whether exoEarths tend to be Earth-like.

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arXiv2020

Hurricane genesis is favorable on terrestrial exoplanets orbiting late-type M dwarf stars

Hurricanes are one of the most extreme storm systems that occur on Earth, characterized by strong rainfall and fast winds. The terrestrial exoplanets that will be characterized with future infrared space telescopes orbit M dwarf stars. As a result, the best observable terrestrial exoplanets have vastly different climates than Earth, with a large dayside-to-nightside irradiation contrast and relatively slow rotation. Hurricanes may affect future observations of terrestrial exoplanets because they enhance the vertical transport of water vapor and could influence ocean heat transport. In this work, we explore how the environment of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars affects the favorability of hurricane genesis (formation). To do so, we apply metrics developed to understand hurricane genesis on Earth to three-dimensional climate models of ocean-covered exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. We find that hurricane genesis is most favorable on intermediate-rotating tidally locked terrestrial exoplanets with rotation periods of $\sim 8-10~\mathrm{days}$. As a result, hurricane genesis is most favorable for terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zones of late-type M dwarf stars. The peak in the favorability of hurricane genesis at intermediate rotation occurs because sufficient spin is required for hurricane genesis, but the vertical wind shear on fast-rotating terrestrial exoplanets disrupts hurricane genesis. We find that hurricane genesis is less favorable on slowly rotating terrestrial exoplanets, which agrees with previous work. Future work using simulations that resolve hurricane genesis and evolution can test our expectations for how the environment affects the favorability of hurricane genesis on tidally locked terrestrial exoplanets.

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arXiv2020

The Effect of Substellar Continent Size on Ocean Dynamics of Proxima Centauri b

The potential habitability of tidally locked planets orbiting M-dwarf stars has been widely investigated in recent work, typically with a non-dynamic ocean and without continents. On Earth, ocean dynamics are a primary means of heat and nutrient distribution. Continents are a critical source of nutrients, strongly influence ocean dynamics, and participate in climate regulation. In this work, we investigate how the size of a substellar land mass affects the oceans ability to transport heat and upwell nutrients on the tidally locked planet Proxima Centauri b using the ROCKE-3D coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model (GCM). We find that dayside ice-free ocean and nutrient delivery to the mixed layer via upwelling are maintained across all continent sizes. We also find that Proxima Centauri bs climate is more sensitive to differences among atmospheric GCMs than to the inclusion of ocean dynamics in ROCKE-3D. Finally, we find that Proxima Centauri b transitions from a lobster state where ocean heat transport distributes heat away from the substellar point to an eyeball state where heat transport is restricted and surface temperature decreases symmetrically from the substellar point when the continent size exceeds about 20 percent of the surface area. Our work suggests that both a dynamic ocean and continents are unlikely to decrease the habitability prospects of nearby tidally locked targets like Proxima Centauri b that could be investigated with future observations by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

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arXiv2020

Evidence for H$_{2}$ Dissociation and Recombination Heat Transport in the Atmosphere of KELT-9b

Phase curve observations provide an opportunity to study the full energy budgets of exoplanets by quantifying the amount of heat redistributed from their daysides to their nightsides. Theories explaining the properties of phase curves for hot Jupiters have focused on the balance between radiation and dynamics as the primary parameter controlling heat redistribution. However, recent phase curves have shown deviations from the trends that emerge from this theory, which has led to work on additional processes that may affect hot Jupiter energy budgets. One such process, molecular hydrogen dissociation and recombination, can enhance energy redistribution on ultra-hot Jupiters with temperatures above $\sim2000$ K. In order to study the impact of H$_{2}$ dissociation on ultra-hot Jupiters, we present a phase curve of KELT-9b observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope at 4.5 $μ$m. KELT-9b is the hottest known transiting planet, with a 4.5-$μ$m dayside brightness temperature of $4566^{+140}_{-136}$ K and a nightside temperature of $2556^{+101}_{-97}$ K. We observe a phase curve amplitude of $0.609 \pm 0.020$ and a hot spot offset of $18.7^{+2.1}_{-2.3}$ degrees. The observed amplitude is too small to be explained by a simple balance between radiation and advection. General circulation models (GCMs) and an energy balance model that include the effects of H$_{2}$ dissociation and recombination provide a better match to the data. The GCMs, however, predict a maximum hot spot offset of $5$ degrees, which disagrees with our observations at $>5σ$ confidence. This discrepancy may be due to magnetic effects in the planet's highly ionized atmosphere.

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arXiv2019

Temporal Variability in Hot Jupiter Atmospheres

Hot Jupiters receive intense incident stellar light on their daysides, which drives vigorous atmospheric circulation that attempts to erase their large dayside-to-nightside flux contrasts. Propagating waves and instabilities in hot Jupiter atmospheres can cause emergent properties of the atmosphere to be time-variable. In this work, we study such weather in hot Jupiter atmospheres using idealized cloud-free general circulation models with double-grey radiative transfer. We find that hot Jupiter atmospheres can be time-variable at the $\sim 0.1-1\%$ level in globally averaged temperature and at the $\sim 1-10\%$ level in globally averaged wind speeds. As a result, we find that observable quantities are also time variable: the secondary eclipse depth can be variable at the $\lesssim 2\%$ level, the phase curve amplitude can change by $\lesssim 1\%$, the phase curve offset can shift by $\lesssim 5^{\circ}$, and terminator-averaged wind speeds can vary by $\lesssim 2~ \mathrm{km}~\mathrm{s}^{-1}$. Additionally, we calculate how the eastern and western limb-averaged wind speeds vary with incident stellar flux and the strength of an imposed drag that parameterizes Lorentz forces in partially ionized atmospheres. We find that the eastern limb is blueshifted in models over a wide range of equilibrium temperature and drag strength, while the western limb is only redshifted if equilibrium temperatures are $\lesssim1500~\mathrm{K}$ and drag is weak. Lastly, we show that temporal variability may be observationally detectable in the infrared through secondary eclipse observations with JWST, phase curve observations with future space telescopes (e.g., ARIEL), and/or Doppler wind speed measurements with high-resolution spectrographs.

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arXiv2019

Clouds will likely prevent the detection of water vapor in JWST transmission spectra of terrestrial exoplanets

We are on the verge of characterizing the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zones of M dwarf stars. Due to their large planet-to-star radius ratios and higher frequency of transits, terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars are favorable for transmission spectroscopy. In this work, we quantify the effect that water clouds have on the amplitude of water vapor transmission spectral features of terrestrial exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. To do so, we make synthetic transmission spectra from general circulation model (GCM) experiments of tidally locked planets. We improve upon previous work by considering how varying a broad range of planetary parameters affects transmission spectra. We find that clouds lead to a 10-100 times increase in the number of transits required to detect water features with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) with varying rotation period, incident stellar flux, surface pressure, planetary radius, and surface gravity. We also find that there is a strong increase in the dayside cloud coverage in our GCM simulations with rotation periods $\gtrsim 12 \ \mathrm{days}$ for planets with Earth's radius. This increase in cloud coverage leads to even stronger muting of spectral features for slowly rotating exoplanets orbiting M dwarf stars. We predict that it will be extremely challenging to detect water transmission features in the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone of M dwarf stars with JWST. However, species that are well-mixed above the cloud deck (e.g., CO$_2$ and CH$_4$) may still be detectable on these planets with JWST.

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