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Theodoros Moysiadis

Publications and source records attributed to Theodoros Moysiadis.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

GFCM: A Tail-Sensitive Mixed-Type Conditional Independence Test for Causal Discovery

Constraint-based causal discovery like PC and FCI depends on its conditional independence test. Partial correlation and the Generalised Covariance Measure (GCM) detect only the conditional covariance of residuals, so they miss dependence in the mean's nonlinear part, the scale, and the tails. Tests that detect more are biased inside PC, not scalable, only continuous, or not aimed at the tails. Our Generalised Feature Covariance Measure (GFCM) is valid, sensitive beyond covariance, robust inside PC, and applicable to mixed-type data. It runs the GCM template on a configurable set of residual features with conditional mean zero (centered moments and conditional quantile indicators), pooled in blocks and combined by the Cauchy rule, with a growing-knot spline nuisance at regression cost. We contribute (i) a centering result making the scale feature Neyman orthogonal, where the uncentered version is biased; (ii) the orientation asymmetry the mean-quantile construction creates inside PC, and its fix; (iii) a Phi-faithfulness theory under which PC with GFCM recovers the CPDAG of the set's detection class; and (iv) a benchmark of CI tests sensitive beyond covariance on synthetic data, semi-synthetic tail injections, and PC discovery on random DAGs. Under size-corrected power, GFCM recovers the scale and tail edges the covariance family misses and alone keeps power at the deep conditioning sets PC issues. It stays calibrated as n grows, whereas FFCI, the boosted GCM, and the partial copula test do not, and it handles mixed-type data directly. Inside PC at scale it attains the lowest skeleton SHD among tests that stay calibrated, while the others inflate false edges. Validity rests on an additive nuisance, and the tail advantage is shown on simulated and semi-synthetic data, as no fully real benchmark with both heavy tails and known structure exists.

stat.ME

Conditional Independence Tests for Constraint-Based Causal Discovery: A Survey

Conditional Independence (CI) tests are the statistical engine of constraint-based causal discovery: in algorithms such as PC (Peter-Clark) and FCI (Fast Causal Inference), skeleton pruning and key orientations follow directly from CI decisions. This survey reviews CI testing with emphasis on assumptions, robustness, and scalability in high-dimensional and mixed-type settings common in biomedical domains. The survey organizes widely used CI methods into six families: partial-correlation, contingency-table, regression, nearest-neighbor, kernel, and machine-learning-based. Special emphasis is provided on the robustness layers that address the limitations of these families. For each family, the survey examines when CI decisions reflect the data-generating distribution and when they fail. By this, we link test-level properties, including power decay with conditioning set size and asymmetric type I/II error consequences, to graph-level errors in skeleton recovery and v-structure orientation. The survey also compares adoption across major R and Python libraries and summarizes open challenges, including mixed-type CI testing without discretization, small-sample error control, and strategies for improving scalability of CI-testing.

stat.ML

On Locally Dyadic Stationary Processes

We introduce the concept of local dyadic stationarity, to account for non-stationary time series, within the framework of Walsh-Fourier analysis. We define and study the time varying dyadic ARMA models (tvDARMA). It is proven that the general tvDARMA process can be approximated locally by either a tvDMA and a tvDAR process.

math.ST

Monitoring Term Drift Based on Semantic Consistency in an Evolving Vector Field

Based on the Aristotelian concept of potentiality vs. actuality allowing for the study of energy and dynamics in language, we propose a field approach to lexical analysis. Falling back on the distributional hypothesis to statistically model word meaning, we used evolving fields as a metaphor to express time-dependent changes in a vector space model by a combination of random indexing and evolving self-organizing maps (ESOM). To monitor semantic drifts within the observation period, an experiment was carried out on the term space of a collection of 12.8 million Amazon book reviews. For evaluation, the semantic consistency of ESOM term clusters was compared with their respective neighbourhoods in WordNet, and contrasted with distances among term vectors by random indexing. We found that at 0.05 level of significance, the terms in the clusters showed a high level of semantic consistency. Tracking the drift of distributional patterns in the term space across time periods, we found that consistency decreased, but not at a statistically significant level. Our method is highly scalable, with interpretations in philosophy.

cs.CL